Population-territory: 100 years of evolution, 1895-1990

The authors "describe population distribution trends [in Mexico] from 1895 to 1990 as they relate to a division of political and administrative factors. The study provides an estimate of population dispersion throughout time by analyzing the behavior of state populations with respect to the distance between state capitals and the Federal District. It also provides 100-year curves describing time variations of population dispersion and explaining the process of decentralization of displacement from the country's main population center to its peripheral areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

A new migratory horizon in Central Mexico: 1970-1990

"During the last few decades migration in Central Mexico has undergone important changes. Not only have populations been moving increasingly towards the periphery and decreasingly towards the center, but those originally living in the center are also moving to the immediate periphery. This behavior allows us to claim that Central Mexico is undergoing a process of deconcentration or suburbanization. This study describes the way in which such a process has developed and the situation of geographical entities within that process. Analysis of the new regional configuration takes into account demographic growth and the direction and characteristics of migration in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area and its surrounding states during the last twenty years." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The control of urban growth in Mexico City. Suppositions regarding poor planning

It is argued that mechanisms for planning land use and controlling urban expansion in Mexico City have failed to achieve their aims. Although in theory Mexico's urban planning process has recently attempted to go beyond purely physical aspects to include socioeconomic dimensions, it has in fact been inflexible and oriented to exclusively to technical and administrative aspects, to the detriment of social distribution goals. Planning instruments have not included important aspects such as specific mechanisms for altering employment structures or income levels or mechanisms for providing access to land or housing to the most disadvantaged groups. The urban planning process in Mexico City, instead of assuming a socially compensatory role in favor of disadvantaged groups, has maintained the status quo or discriminated in favor of the already advantaged. The spatial and technical orientation or urban planning in Mexico City does not leave room for a well-defined social policy. The population of the Mexico City metropolitan Zone increased from 3 million in 1950 to 18 million in 1985, while its total area increased from 11,750 hectares in 1940 to 125,000 in 1985. Transfer of population from the Federal District to the conurban municipios of the state of Mexico has been very significant since the 1970s. Around 20% of the total area of metropolitan Mexico City has been settled through illegal means, with communal and ejido lands accounting for a large share. Settlements on some 60% of lands in metroplitan Mexico City were illegal or irregular at some time. Low income housing is the cheapest form for the government because the frequently illegal status of settlers prevents them from making any demands for services or equipment for the 1st several years. Construction is undertaken and financed almost entirely by the settlers themselves, freeing the government of responsibility in regard to the constitutionally mandated right of all Mexicans to housing. The Urban Development Plan of the state of Mexico published in 1986 proposed 2 important programs for controlling urban growth. The territorial reserves program aimed to anticipate the need and make available through purchase, expropriation, or other means sufficient lands for housing to which the lowest income groups would share access. The "Paint Your Line" program establiished physical limits for urban expansion in each of the 17 conurban municipios in the State of Mexico. To date, however, few lands have been set aside for legal acquisition and the Paint Your Line program has been slow in delimiting the areas to be settled. Data from a 1989 study in the municipios of Chalco and Ixtapaluca demonstrate the shortcomings of the programs, which do not address the true processes and agents that control new settlements and especially illegal occupations and which fail to satisfy the needs of low-income population sectors.     

Reconciling population censuses with birth,death, and migration statistics through an expolinomial function

"This study seeks to build a mathematical function, which has been named expolinomial, to describe total population dynamics in Mexico between 1940 and 1990. It also aims to carry out an analysis to reconcile data from population censuses with birth, death, and migratory data." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Metropolitan areas in Mexico, 1980

Urban trends in Mexico from 1960 to 1980 are analyzed using multivariate analysis techniques. The authors note that the total number of metropolitan regions has increased from 12 to 26 during this period. Differences between the stage in urbanization reached by the Mexico City region and other urban centers in the country are noted. In Mexico City, the authors observe a decline in the population of the central city region coupled with rapid growth in the surrounding municipalities. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The transition of migratory patterns in medium-sized cities

"The authors attempt to present some empirical findings regarding a phenomenon which they chose to call the 'transition in migratory patterns'.... The general hypothesis states that: changes in migratory patterns are due to an interaction between those economic, political and social processes which affect the distribution of the population; and that this interaction is also highly influenced by macroeconomic politics--an arena where technology plays a dominant role." Data are for Guadalajara and the state of Jalisco in Mexico. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The application of Markov chains to demographic projections in smaller geopolitical areas

"This article deals with the use of Markov chains to project population in smaller geopolitical areas. The method consists of projecting only the relative distribution which, applied to a previous demographic projection, gives figures for the population by subregion. An algorithm is worked out, allowing for an estimate to be made of the transitional probabilities of the chain based on easily available data: the total population residing in two or more regions or states in only two specific moments. Once those probabilities have been determined, the projection of the probabilities and of the relative distribution is direct. This method is applied to the metropolitan zone of Mexico City, for which population and territorial extension are projected." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Demographic dynamics of urban growth in Mexico: 1940-1980

"In this article, the author analyzes the relationship between growth rates and the sizes of cities [in Mexico] to determine what kind of cities are the most dynamic ones in terms of their demographic growth during the 1940-1980 period. [His findings contradict] the widespread belief that in Mexico, as of 1970, there has been a process of 'metropolitanization' and of 'growth of intermediate cities'." He proposes changes to current population policy, which attempts to control urban growth through regulation. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

An information system for the study of the urban structure of Mexico City

The author describes SIUMEX, a program she developed to analyze the urban structure of Mexico City. The program was used in 1990 to examine the city's spatial distribution and to measure the physical expansion of the urban region. Other applications for the program are briefly described.     

The location of employment in developing countries. Models of urbanization and comparative analyses of the Canadian and Mexican urban systems

The rapid urban growth and increasing number of megacities in Latin America and other developing countries are fundamentally different phenomena than those observed at the time that location theory was developed. To examine whether existing location theory applies to developing countries, an econometric analysis of the relationship between urbanization, city size, and development was first conducted. The relationship between urbanization and development was expressed in the form of a series of regression analyses applied to World Bank data for 96 developing and developed countries. After logarithmic transformation, a simple equation associating total and total urban population of the country and per capita gross national product was able to explain 93% of the variance in total urban population. This result demonstrates that it is not possible to regard urbanization as abnormal. As to the size of particular cities, deviations from the "normal" trajectory of urbanization apparently originate in particular institutional features of some countries. Manifestations of overurbanization in Latin America demonstrate that urbanization is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition of development. A comparative study of spatial location of employment in different economic sectors in Canada and Mexico was next conducted. For this analysis, cities of over 25,000 population in Canada and Mexico were classified into 32 economic activity sectors, which were regrouped into 18 for the analysis. Two matrixes of ten city types and 18 and 32 employment groups were constructed for each country, with the corresponding number of employees noted. The employment information was transformed into quotients of location, with a quotient above 100 signifying concentration of employment. The results did not suggest that factors of localization of employment are different in developing countries. Models of localization of economic activities adopt analogous characteristics imposed by geography and technological conditions. In Canada as in Mexico, economies of scale and distance are the principle variable explaining models of localization.     

Historical geography of the population of Michoacan. Eighteenth century

The author incorporates geographic variables into this study of population dynamics in Michoacan, Mexico, during the eighteenth century.     

Population dynamics,urban structure,and production of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City

"In this article, an attempt is made to account for certain trends in the growth and distribution of the population, and in the structuring of living space in the metropolitan zone of Mexico City.... Among the important conclusions of this essay are those having to do with the huge growth of some political-administrative units and the relation of this phenomenon to the practices followed by private realtors, often articulated with the policies and programs set by the State's housing agencies, as well as those that associate urban growth and expansion with the development of habitational spaces within the so-called 'formal' and 'informal' housing sectors." Data are from Mexican censuses and other official sources. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

A covariance structure model for the analysis of spatial differences in Mexican mortality

"This article examines some of the possible determinants of spatial mortality differentials in Mexico, on the basis of [a] path analytical model with latent variables." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

A simulation model of Mexican internal migration flows: empirical application of a spatial interaction model

"In this paper spatial interaction theory is challenged in order to test if it is suitable to support the design and construction of an operative model of the Mexican internal migration flows. The main conceptual and operative aspects of the model are presented, the design and model building process is explained, the results of the calibration analysis are examined and a simulation exercise of migration policy evaluation is undertaken. The operative migration model presented in this paper seems useful to analyze and evaluate numerous migration policies, which suggest that spatial interaction theory offers a promising conceptual and operative foundation to analyze internal migration flows in Mexico." (EXCERPT)     

Migration and oil in Tabasco

"At the beginning of the seventies, important economic investments aimed at developing and commercializing the newly discovered oilwells were made in the state of Tabasco [Mexico]. As a result of this, the distribution and the social growth of the population in this state changed. This paper analyses the general characteristics of these changes, particularly those related to migration.... Generally speaking, the most important migratory movements which took place in this state during the oil boom were from one municipality to another and not from other states to Tabasco, as was thought at first.... This paper also describes the direction of the migratory flows and provides information about the sex of the migrants and about their insertion within the sphere of employment." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Household structure as a response to economic adjustments: evidence from urban Mexico in the 1980s

"This paper presents the results of exploratory efforts to examine the determinants of the structure of households in urban areas of Mexico, focusing on those of women with young children.... The empirical analysis uses two cross-sectional national surveys of Mexico, the 'Encuesta Nacional Demografica' 1982 and the 'Encuesta Nacional de Fecundidad y Salud' 1987...." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Migration policies and population distribution in Mexico: regional implementation and impact

The author begins by analyzing the legal framework of migration and population redistribution policies in Mexico since 1973, when the General Law on Population was passed. In that framework, she points out several institutional deficiencies and contradictions. In the second section, she discusses demographic planning in this field, and conducts a follow-up on implementation based on reports from the institutions involved and official documents. To conclude, she examines practical applications of policy instruments, comparing the behavior of governmental variables that had a bearing on the phenomenon before and after the implementation of said policy (1970 to 1990). One of her findings is that the basic elements making population policies on migration operational did not move in the desired direction, i.e., to modify migratory and population distribution so as to achieve expected goals. Despite the continuity of population policies on migration, the implementation of such policies still poses diverse obstacles.     

The population of a Mexican parish in the eighteenth century: Santa Maria de la Presentation de Chilapa

The author analyzes parish registers and census data for Santa Maria de la Presentacion de Chilapa, Mexico, to determine the characteristics of the parish population during the final quarter of the eighteenth century. He provides estimates of age and sex distribution and marital status, and considers the demographic impact of epidemics and famines brought about by colonization.     

The epidemiology of aging: a further stage in the demographic transition

"Social and economic indicators depict Mexico as a country of intermediate development. It is also in intermediate stages of demographic and epidemiologic transitions. When these traits are translated into socio-demographic perspectives, all projections indicate that for the next fifty years we can expect: (i) percentage decreases in child and teen-age populations, (ii) large percentage and absolute increases in adult population, and (iii) important increases in the elderly population.... Among elders death due to infectious diseases is less common than within other sectors of [the] population. Mortality associated with chronic ailments has increased, with recent and remarkable changes during the last twenty years. This transformation is not evenly distributed. It is more accelerated in developed and urban areas as contrasted with the rural and less developed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)