A comparative analysis of mortality in the Americas

"The analysis concentrates on the mortality of [the] adult population at ages 15 to 74 in 8 countries of the American continent.... Results are presented by age, sex and principal groups of causes of death. It is concluded that: a) mortality can significantly decline further in the Americas; b) there are noticeable mortality differentials by cause among countries; [and] c) all the countries still have excess mortality in certain age groups and causes of death, and hence, the mortality transition has not ended." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Mortality by cause among children younger than age one in Mexico

"This article presents the levels and trends of deaths among children [in Mexico] under the age of one, by groups of causes, for some states, for the years 1979-1985. Identifying the causes of death according to the international classification of diseases, both for deaths among children under the age of one and for total deaths, the goal is to establish a comparison of the levels of general and infant mortality by groups of causes. The data are taken from the statistical yearbooks of the Head Office for Statistics, for the years 1979 to 1985." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Participatory observation in the 1995 count of population and housing. An anthropological experience

"The experience of an anthropologist who participated as enumerator in [Mexico's] Conteo de Poblacion y Vivienda 1995 is analyzed in this paper. The author describes briefly the methodology...for each stage of the enumeration; she systematically points [out] the circumstances and reasons that determine why the different groups involved in the process do not follow the rules. She [examines] the questions that the informers usually avoid answering, or the ones they answer hardly and imprecisely." (EXCERPT)     

Analysis of Lotuses that High-formwork Supports Bear and the Construction Suggestion

With the development of our countryl's city modernization construction,the high-formwork supports system was used more and more,but national standard of high-formwork supports has been not officially promulgated[1]at present,so we do not have a unified standard in high-formwork supports design and construction.This text puts forward some views about windload by calculating and analyzing the effects that windload causes to the structure.     

Differential mortality in women of reproductive age

"This paper begins by reviewing some conceptual frameworks for the study of female mortality and indicates some of its application problems. Next it presents results of mortality of women in reproductive-age classified by age, causes of death, and socio-demographic traits (marital status, schooling, and occupation) for ten states [in Mexico] differentiated according to level of development and well-being. The data suggests differences according to age, marital status, and schooling. Finally, testing of the mutual independence and partial independence hypotheses indicates that age, marital status, and schooling correlate to the degree of development of each state." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Migration and socioeconomic changes in the community of Zoogocho,Oaxaca

"This study of migration and the socioeconomic dynamics of the community of Zoogocho in the state of Oaxaca [Mexico] is an example of what happens in rural areas when Indian-campesinos establish contacts with foreign parts. The penetration of alien socioeconomic and cultural values alters both family and communal structures to such an extent that available resources prove insufficient in competing with the colliding external society. This leads to increasingly more complex movements of the population, the manifestations, causes and consequences of which vary through time not only in the places of origin but also in destinations." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Migration and social gender relations: the anthropological perspective

"This article reviews Mexican research of female migration. An analysis is made of socio-demographic and anthropological studies that cover the relations between inequality among the genders, the causes and features of migration, and the work performed by female migrants in their places of origin and destination. The paper responds to the growing interest shown in international literature [on] migration in order to determine the influence of gender identity in the motivations and features of the migration of women, as well as the consequences of spatial mobility on their social conditions and their autonomy." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Population and economics in Quintana Roo state: some considerations from recent experience

"This article focuses on the explosive population growth in Quintana Roo [Mexico] during the last few years and its...implications [for] the local economy. First, the article briefly describes population structure, emphasizing some migratory and socioeconomic aspects. Next it considers the status sectoral and regional production structure, which [emphasize] the strong dependence on tourism and its concentration in Cancun. In the conclusions population and economic aspects entwine, providing a more comprehensive developmental perspective." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Quantitative Leverage Through Qualitative Knowledge: Augmenting the Statistical Analysis of Complex Causes

Social scientific theories frequently posit that multiple causalmechanisms may produce the same outcome. Unfortunately, it isnot always possible to observe which mechanism was responsible.For example, IMF scholars conjecture that nations enter IMFagreements both out of economic need and for discretionary domesticpolitical reasons. Typically, though, all we observe is thefact of agreement, not its cause. Partial observability probitmodels (Poirier 1980, Journal of Econometrics 12:209–217; Braumoeller2003, Political Analysis 11:209–233) provide one methodfor the statistical analysis of such phenomena. Unfortunately,they are often plagued by identification and labeling difficulties.Sometimes, however, qualitative studies of particular casesenlighten us about causes when quantitative studies cannot.We propose exploiting this information to lend additional structureto the partial observability approach. Monte Carlo simulationreveals that by anchoring "discernible" causes for a handfulof cases about which we possess qualitative information, weobtain greater efficiency. More important, our method provesreliable at recovering unbiased parameter estimates when thepartial observability model fails. The paper concludes withan analysis of the determinants of IMF agreements.

A member shall be entitled to purchase the currencies of othermembers from the Fund ...[provided] the member represents thatit has a need to make the purchase because of its balance ofpayments or its reserve position or developments in its reserves. —InternationalMonetary Fund Articles of Agreement [IMF] negotiations sometimesenable government leaders to do what they privately wish todo, but are powerless to do domestically. —Robert Putnam(1988, p. 457)

     

Changes in the hierarchical structure of Mexico's national settlement system

"This paper uses an economic index to describe the hierarchical structure of the national settlement system and describes the changes among the sixties, eighties and nineties. We found great territorial changes for the first period. The conclusions proposed are that there is a decentralisation at [the] national level, but at the same time, there is a centralisation at [the] regional level." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

公共管理视角下的中国危机管理研究——现状、趋势和未来方向

中国近年来社会科学视角的危机管理研究已进入瓶颈期。本文旨在梳理这十年来公共管理视角下的危机管理相关研究,以期为危机管理研究进一步深入发展提供参考。评述文献主要来源于公共管理、政治学、管理学和综合社会科学领域的重要学术期刊以及依据专业知识所选取的近些年来具有代表性的研究专著和报告。在对文献进行分类、编码和统计分析之后,分析结果表明:危机事前分析的文章占据主导地位,而对危机应对过程和危机后分析相对不足;应然研究类文章占据很大比重,但对于危机理论的建构和实证检验的研究比较缺乏;对于危机的综合分析多于单灾种分析。近些年中,虽然上述研究方式依然居于主导地位,但是研究者开始关注危机后的分析,注意理论的建构和检验,特别值得注意的是对于社会安全事件的分析呈上升趋势。最后,本文结合危机管理研究的现状和趋势总结出未来值得研究的若干领域。     

The Gompertz-Makeham function in the description and projection of demographic phenomena

"The main aim of this article is to examine the application of [the Gompertz-Makeham mathematical function] in detail, and more specifically, its mathematical formulation and development. Another objective is to test an iterative method for obtaining parameters, by which one may obtain an optimal function best describing the behavior of a population in the face of demographic phenomena. This study was conducted with [Mexican data on] population growth and...structures by age of fertility and the labor force." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Close-of-the-century trends in Mexican urbanization

"This article reviews the main characteristics of Mexican urban development during the eighties through the study of its spatial-demographic aspects and the changes in the space-sector structure of [the] economy, and suggests a prospect of national urbanization for the nineties.... The main point is to illustrate and explain why the eighties can be considered a milestone in urban development, [introducing] a new trend in Mexican urbanization which will consolidate during the nineties." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

New memoirs from Moscow

Nikolai Leonov, Likholetye [The Troubled Years] (Moscow: Mezhdunardonyye Otnosheniya 1995) Pp.400. ISBN 5–71330836–7.

Vadim Bakatin, Izbavlenie of KGB [Deliverance from the KGB] (Moscow: Novosti, 1992). Pp.268. ISBN 5–7020–0721–2.

Vadim Kirpichenko, It arkhiva razvedchika [From an Intelligence officer's archive] (Moscow: Mezhdunarodnyye Otnosheniya 1993).

Vadim Kirpichenko; Veterany vneshnei razvedki Rossii [Veterans of Russia's Foreign Intelligence service] (Moscow: Shizhba Vneshnei Razvedki 1995). Pp.174

Mikhail Lyubimov, Zapiski neputevogo rezidenta ili Will‐o'‐the‐wisp [Notes of a good‐for‐nothing resident, or Will‐o'‐the‐wisp] (Moscow: Khudozhestvennaya Literatura 1995). Pp.480. ISBN 5–280–03067–8.

Leonid Shebarshin, Iz zhizni nachal‐nika razvedki [From the life of the Head of the Intelligence] (Moscow: Mezhdunarodnyye Otnosheniya 1994). Pp.192. ISBN 5–7133–0781–6.

Oleg Kalugin, Spymaster (London: Smith Gryphon Publishers 1994). Pp.376. ISBN 82–574–1131–0.

Viktor Grusjko, Mit Liv I KGB (My life in the KGB (Oslo: Gyldendal 1995). Pp.272. ISBN 82–574–1131–0.

Yevgenia Albats, The State within a State (London: I.B. Tauris 1995). Pp.416. £10.95. ISBN 1–8504–3995–8.     

Demographic dynamics of urban growth in Mexico: 1940-1980

"In this article, the author analyzes the relationship between growth rates and the sizes of cities [in Mexico] to determine what kind of cities are the most dynamic ones in terms of their demographic growth during the 1940-1980 period. [His findings contradict] the widespread belief that in Mexico, as of 1970, there has been a process of 'metropolitanization' and of 'growth of intermediate cities'." He proposes changes to current population policy, which attempts to control urban growth through regulation. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

In Play: A Commentary on Strategies in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election

“A lot of military battle plans going back to the Civil War say ‘whoever controls the Mississippi controls America.’ And Bush is marching straight up the Mississippi,” the Democratic strategist said. “We’ve just retreated from Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri. They already control Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. Bush is now moving in on Iowa and Wisconsin. And except for Illinois, which isn’t in play, there’s only one state left: Minnesota, the mouth of the river. And it’s dead even [i.e., a tie] there.” From CNN.com, ALLPOLITICS, September 23, 2004: Mercurio, John and Molly Levinson. “CNN Survey: Bush widens lead in Electoral College.” CNN Political Unit. 27 Sept. 2004 <http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/ 09/23/electoral.map> “All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between “lean [toward a candidate]” to “tossup” throughout the campaign.” USA Today, July 25, 2004: “AP: Bush leads Kerry in electoral votes.” A.P. 25 July 2004, <whttp://www.usatoday.com/news/Politicselections/nation/President/2004-07-25-bush-kerry-electoral-votes_x.htm>     

The importance of children for the elderly and changes in reproductive behavior (a study of three rural communities in Mexico)

"This study analyzes the importance of children in the care of elderly populations in rural communities [in Mexico].... In particular, the perception of elders about the value of their children is analyzed, especially the role children play in their economic contribution to the household or their instrumental value to it at different stages of their lives.... With respect [to] the condition in which children support their parents in their old age the economic assistance given was studied too. Finally, the preference regarding family size of those 60 years or older [is] given, as well as the view points of women on the need to control fertility and reduce family size. Three different types of cost are studied: the economic cost of supporting and caring for children, the emotional cost of their upbringing and the health cost of multiple pregnancies and births." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

From the ranch of the Tia Juana to Tijuana: a brief history of development and population on the northern border of Mexico

"Tijuana has been the most extraordinary example of the modern demographic history of the [Mexican] northern border. This article is an essay on the economic, social, and demographic development of this important urban center during this century. Its purpose is two fold. On the one hand, to understand Tijuana's general population change in light of a unique socioeconomic development in the country, which has been characterized by a close dependence on the United States as well as by the creation of several federal programs aimed [at integrating] the natural economies. On the other hand, to introduce the discussion of the Mexico-United States border region to the non-specialist in this field." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

A culture of rent seeking

Public Choice - Tullock [J Dev Econ 67(2):455–470, 1967] introduced the concept of rent seeking and highlighted the social costs associated with collecting and lobbying for or against...     

Toward a demo-anthropological perspective on nuptiality and its relationship with new reproductive patterns: consideration of a study carried out in the area surrounding Zacatepec,Morelos

"The research is based on a study carried out between 1989 and 1991 in the three rural communities in the state of Morelos [Mexico] that included a socio-demographic survey and interviews. The methodological goal of the authors is to view nuptiality from demographic and anthropological standpoints.... The authors seek to pinpoint the elements that account for changes that have taken place in nuptiality, as well as to identify the impact of these changes on [descendants]." (SUMMARY IN ENG)