Management Practices and State Bond Ratings

One of the central claims of public administration is that management matters for the performance of public entities. Quantifying the impact of organizational management is thus central to the empirical evaluation of this claim. Utilizing novel features of the Government Performance Project (GPP), we assess the impact of state‐level management practices on the credit quality of US states. The central challenge—that both the GPP data and bond ratings take the form of ordinal grades—suggests a common solution utilizing multiple indicators of a latent construct (management capacity and credit quality) with appropriate measurement models. After describing the characteristics of the measurement approach, we derive management capacity scores from the GPP data and credit quality scores using bond ratings from the three rating agencies. These derived scores then allow us to test linkages between credit quality of the US states and broad aspects of their relative management capacity. On the whole, we show that financial management capacity influences credit quality, while the evidence is less clear that other forms of management capacity matter.     

Legislative Capacity and Credit Risk

Legislatures differ in their institutional capacity to draft and enact policy. While strong legislatures can increase the congruence of policy outcomes to the electorate's preferences, they can also inject uncertainty into markets with their ability to alter the political economic landscape. We argue that this uncertainty will manifest in a state's ability to borrow and hypothesize a negative relationship between legislative capacity and creditworthiness. Using ratings of general obligation bonds issued by the American states over nearly two decades and data on the institutional capacity of state legislative assemblies, we find support for the claim that having a legislature that is better equipped to affect policy change increases credit risk evaluations. The results we present broaden our understanding of the importance of legislative institutions, the determinants of credit risk, and the economic implications of democratic responsiveness.     

Foreign Aid and Undeserved Credit Claiming

Politicians in developing countries misuse foreign aid to get reelected by fiscally manipulating foreign aid resources or domestic budgets. Our article suggests another mechanism that does not require politicians to have any control over foreign aid in order to make use of it for electoral purposes: undeserved credit claiming. We analyze the conditions under which local politicians can undeservedly take credit for the receipt of foreign aid and thereby boost their chances of reelection. We theorize that politicians can employ a variety of techniques to claim credit for development aid even when they have little or no influence on its actual allocation. Using a subnational World Bank development program in the Philippines, we demonstrate that credit claiming is an important strategy to exploit foreign aid inflows and that the political effects of aid can persist even when projects are designed to minimize the diversion or misuse of funds.     

Attitude Responsiveness and Partisan Bias: Direct Experience with the Affordable Care Act

This study evaluates the competing influences of motivated reasoning and personal experience on policy preferences toward the Affordable Care Act. Using cross-sectional and panel survey data, the findings reveal that healthcare attitudes are responsive to information that individuals receive through personal experience. Individuals who experienced a positive change in their insurance situation are found to express more positive views toward the health reform law, while individuals who lost their insurance or experienced an otherwise negative personal impact on their insurance situations express more negative views. The results point to personal experience as a source of information that can influence individuals’ preferences. However, although attitudes are responsive to the quality of one’s personal interactions with the healthcare system, the results also suggest that partisan bias is still at work. Republicans are more likely to blame the health reform law for negative changes in their health insurance situations, while Democrats are more likely to credit the law for positive changes in their situations. These motivated attributions for their personal situations temper how responsive partisans’ attitudes are to information acquired through personal experience.     

Collateral Damage: The Impact of Mortgage Debt on U.S. Savings

This article contributes to the literature on saving by empirically investigating the determinants of the saving rate in the United States, with a special focus on the role of mortgage debt. Using data from 1987 to 2013, we find that mortgage payments have a substantial negative impact on both personal and private saving rates in the United States. An increase of 10 percentage points in mortgage payments leads to a 9.1-percentage-point drop in the personal saving rate and a 12.4-percentage-point drop in the private saving rate. In addition, including mortgage debt as an explanatory variable leads to significant changes in the impact of other variables, which further reinforces our claim that mortgage debt is important for the analysis of the saving rate. Comparing mortgage payments with nonmortgage consumer debt payments, we find that mortgage payments have a larger impact on the private saving rate whereas nonmortgage consumer debt payments have a larger impact on the personal saving rate. We also find a partial but robust crowding-out effect of public saving rate on the two saving rates. Our results have implications for monetary policy and government policies that encourage mortgage borrowing.     

China’s consumer credit sector expansion and monetary transmission mechanism: What should China’s central bank do?

In this paper, we argue that as China’s consumer credit sector is expanding, the central bank’s role in smoothing economic fluctuation and promoting economic growth becomes more important. We build a general equilibrium model with durable and nondurable goods to analyze how the consumer credit sector affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The model finds that an expanding consumer credit sector improves the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism. Two policy implications derived suggest China’s central bank should encourage the development of the consumer credit sector and liberalize market-based monetary policy tools such as interest rate tools. Her fields of interest are international economics, monetary policies and economic growth. Guofeng Sun is the deputy director of open market operation office of monetary policy department at People’s Bank of China. His research focus is the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The authors thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the People’s Bank of China.     

The personal vote and economic reform

Do electoral rules affect the progress of economic reforms? The students of economic reform have examined the effects of inter-party competition, partly shaped by electoral rules, on economic reform, but have neglected the more direct effects of electoral rules, namely the extent to which they encourage the personal vote. More broadly, studies of the effect of electoral rules on economic policy have relied on the simplistic SMD/PR distinction and have neglected features of electoral institutions that affect the level of intra-party competition. Building on the personal vote literature, we argue that electoral institutions that encourage the personal vote are not conducive to reform progress. We provide the first systematic multivariate cross-country test of the implications of the personal vote literature for economic reform in the context of the post-communist countries from 1990 to 2006. We find that, in line with our theory, countries where electoral rules encourage the personal vote are less likely to reform.     

Geographic Politics in the U.S. House of Representatives: Coalition Building and Distribution of Benefits

This article argues that scholars need to consider the structure of House representation to better understand distributive politics. Because House districts (unlike states) are not administrative units in the federal system, House members cannot effectively claim credit for most grant-in-aid funds. Instead, their best credit-claiming opportunities lie in earmarked projects, a small fraction of federal grant dollars. As a consequence, I expect to find: (1) political factors have a much greater effect on the distribution of earmarked projects than on federal funds generally; and (2) project grants are a better support-building tool for coalition leaders than allocations to states. I test this argument with a study of the 1998 reauthorization of surface transportation programs and find strong support for both hypotheses .     

我国商业银行资产业务绩效影响的实证研究

通过对我国上市商业银行资产业务创新与经营绩效的实证研究,发现个人信贷创新业务与商业银行的经营绩效是正相关的,而公司信贷业务以及证券投资业务与商业银行的经营绩效是负相关的。根据研究结果,提出目前我国商业银行应大力发展具有特色的个人信贷产品,注重客户需求、拓宽产品的销售渠道、做好产品的售后服务,走个性化发展道路;同时,要注意风险的防控。     

Capturing vote-seeking incentives and the cultivation of a personal and party vote

Electoral rules establish incentives that encourage candidates to strike a particular balance between cultivating their own personal reputations and cultivating shared party reputations. Higher levels of intraparty competition stress the need for an individual reputation and minimize the usefulness of a shared, party reputation. We develop a new indicator of intraparty competition that addresses shortcomings pointed out in previously used indicators. We also identify new, particularly intuitive indicators of ”personal” and ”party” vote seeking. Using within-system and across-system variation in parliamentary elections in Japan, we find that candidate manifestos contain more frequent uses of first-person pronouns and candidate names and fewer references to political parties when intraparty competition is stiffest.     

投融资平台公司信用风险与地方政府信用失序——以法律为视角

法律冲突与制度扭曲环境下的投融资平台公司,从诞生之日起即具有结构性信用风险,而平台公司的信用风险与地方政府的信用具有相关性,其所具有的传导效应构成地方政府信用风险、宏观经济结构调整风险、土地政策调整风险、银行系统风险、财政风险这样一条具有多米诺骨牌效应的信用风险链并或将成为推手。加强地方政府的信用治理,从财政体制上、法律制度上规范地方政府信用秩序是防范平台公司信用风险的根本手段。     

The refundable tax credit: A cubist policy analysis

A cubist policy analysis sets forth several interacting realities about a policy proposal in order to arrive at an optimum reconciliation of their demands. In relation to the proposal of a refundable tax credit, one must consider the political climate in 1984 and 1985 with respect to income taxes, the effect on families that are poor or have marginally middle-class or middle-class income, of relatively small increments or reductions of money, trends with respect to income for such families, and the manner in which established income transfer mechanisms respond and are able to respond to problems that emerge. Taking all this together, we are led to a proposal to replace the personal exemption in income taxes with a tax credit of $400 per person, reduced by 5 percent of household Adjusted Gross Income in excess of $10,000 a year. Costs and benefits and alternative designs for a refundable tax credit (including one that a taxpayer may choose or decline) are provided.     

Democracy,interrupted: Regime change and partisanship in twentieth-century Argentina

Electoral volatility is much higher in new than in advanced democracies. Some scholars contend that weak partisan ties among the electorate lie behind this high volatility. Political parties in new democracies do not invest in building strong linkages with voters, they claim; hence partisanship is not widespread, nor does it grow over time. Our view is that democratic processes do encourage the spread of partisanship and hence the stabilization of electoral outcomes over time in new democracies. But this dynamic can be masked by countervailing factors and cut short by regime instability. We expect that, all else being equal, volatility will decline over time as a new democracy matures but increase again when democracy is interrupted. We use disaggregated ecological data from Argentina over nearly a century to show that electoral stability grows during democratic periods and erodes during dictatorships.     

Electoral accountability,clarity of responsibility and labor market policy

Does the exercise of accountability in elections have palpable policy effects? Building on recent advances in the economic voting literature, we show that electoral accountability leaves an imprint on labor market policy when left-wing governments are in office. When responsibility for the economy is clear and elections offer an opportunity to claim credit for economic expansion, labor protections and benefits become more generous. However, when clarity of responsibility is low and incumbents can expect to veer electoral responsibility, left-wing governments are more likely to retrench labor market policy. These results hold for policies benefiting both labor market insiders and outsiders. Consistent with evidence that the labor market is the purview of the left, electoral accountability does not condition labor market policy under right-wing governments. We discuss the implications of these results in the context of growing party system fragmentation and weaker accountability across advanced industrial democracies.     

What citizens learn from elections: The normative consequences of voter eligibility

Advocates of innovations for ways to expand citizens’ political participation claim that institutions that require more in-depth participation than voting are required to attain a democratic system with profound civic engagement. They often base this claim on the assumption that elections fail to encourage citizens to be socially and politically involved. In this paper I challenge this assumption by exploring whether voter eligibility reinforces the notion that a good citizen participates in politics. Applying a regression discontinuity design that uses the voting-age restriction as the threshold, I find that voter eligibility boosts support for extensive (non-electoral) forms of political participation. Hence, I argue that the importance of elections should not be underestimated in the quest for societies with civic-minded citizens.     

Credit scores,race, and residential sorting

Credit scores have a profound impact on home purchasing power and mortgage pricing, yet little is known about how credit scores influence households' residential location decisions. This study estimates the effects of credit scores on residential sorting behavior using a novel mortgage industry data set combining household demographic, credit, and financial data with property location information and detailed community attribute data. I employ the data set to estimate a discrete‐choice residential sorting model. I find that credit scores significantly predict residential sorting behavior and models that do not account for credit score provide biased estimates of housing utilities for black households in particular. Simulation results show that increases in credit score are associated with increases in the consumption of higher‐priced homes in more expensive school districts, higher‐quality public schools, and proximity to urban/metropolitan areas. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Preferential Policies and the Blurring of Ethnic Boundaries: the Case of Aboriginal Australians in the 1980s

I argue against the commonly held view that ethnically based preferential policies consistently lead to the construction of well-defined boundaries between collectivities. Using a statistical study of Australia as a case, I demonstrate that preferential programs, under certain conditions, may blur the boundaries between groups. This trend is reflected in the growing number of individuals in the early 1980s who chose to claim an Aboriginal identity in Australian states that increasingly recognized indigenous land claims.
In order to account for the sometimes-divergent effect of ethnically based preferential policies on the divisions between ethnic groups, I focus on the key factor of security. I contend that programs that favor dominant ethnic groups tend to increase the feelings of vulnerability among weaker collectivities and encourage inter-group polarization. In contrast, preferential policies for subordinate groups offer reassurances to previously threatened communities and frequently encourage the crossing of ethnic boundaries.     

Reference Dependence in Political Primaries

This research considers how reference dependence impacts choice in a primary election. The normative advice is to weigh personal political preference against the greater ability of a more electable candidate to win the later general election. Here a behavioral view of primary elections is developed by adding reference dependence to a Hotelling model of political competition. The model details the impact of references on voter choice and generates recommendations as to the reference marketers for any candidate would like primary voters to employ. The advice to a more electable, that is, moderate, candidate is to encourage voters to compare the primary candidates to the extremes of the opposite party. A less electable candidate should encourage voters to compare the candidates to positions within their own party.     

The Primacy of the Political: Rahe and the Myth of the Polis

Paul Rahe belongs to the long tradition of mythologizing the polis , otherwise known as 'the classical republican tradition', which has two signal achievements to its credit. The first is to claim for the great landed monarchies of Europe the democratic legacy of the polis as their very own. The second is to distance themselves from eastern regimes by characterizing them as 'despotic' and 'other'. This tradition is seriously challenged by modern classical and Near Eastern scholarship, which shows city-republican forms to have originated in the east. Rahe's particular version is open to the additional challenge that it glorifies the male warrior polis , from which women were systematically excluded, 'as a moral community of men united by a common way of life', as if a community which depended on the labour of women but gave them no rights could have moral integrity.     

'These mad abandon'd times'

Abstract

The existing academic literature on financialization points to multiple instances in which firms attempt to demonstrate the vitality of their stock-market position in ways which ultimately prove to be self-harming. I demonstrate, in the first instance as a matt er of immanent logic, that these actions are linked to the interplay of contradictory tendencies in the microfoundations of financialization. Under conditions of financialization, firms create additional sources of credit to capitalize their productive activities by driving their stock price into greater increases than the market average, thereby generating capital gains. Yet, the more it becomes public knowledge that the financing tricks used to inflate the stock price provide no productive benefit to the firm, the more it would seem to create incentives for fund managers to hold portfolios that replicate the stock market as a whole. In this way, they will minimize their exposure to financial misrepresentation. Such a stance undermines financialized business models, but it does in any case conform to fund managers’ basic theoretical training, which revolves around the logical demonstration that an individual stock cannot systematically out-perform the market average. I review the available empirical studies of fund manager decision-making to show that they find against the existence of a simple performativity loop operating between finance theory and fund manager behaviour. However, on many points the empirical evidence does confirm the theoretically derived conclusion concerning the potentially contradictory microfoundations of financialization. Fund managers often do act in a way which is consistent with finance theory's core claim that an index-tracking strategy represents the only equilibrium portfolio, even if this is only rarely as a result of the direct performativity of the theory.