Population problems: Recent developments and their impact

The twenty-first century will differ from the twentieth century in population, economics, the environment and culture. In this article, Joel E. Cohen, Professor of Populations and Head of the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller University and Columbia University, examines 10 differences between the last century and the next, and the degree to which global population problems will interact with the economy, the environment and culture. Cohen argues that there is almost nothing inevitable about any human trends for the twenty-first century. Each trend is a result of many choices, both individual and collective, that will have to be made by our generation and our children's generation.     

Three scenarios for the future of China

As we begin to think about the twenty-first century, we are entering a time of fundamental global change. the most dramatic shift will be the movement of China to the status of great power. Yet, the only specific forecast for the future of China that we can make with confidence is that a straight-line extrapolation is most unlikely to occur. China will not continue to grow at double digit rates for the coming decade. Nor is the rest of Southeast Asia going to grow at the 8 percent that has been registered for the past decade and more. Nor is everything going to go smoothly.     

The future Germany and the future of NATO

The events of 1989 have raised questions about NATO's future and purpose. Two different views are held by Germany and the USA. The Germans seek the political and economic unification of the EC, the construction of a European pillar within a demilitarised NATO, and a pan‐European collective security system. In contrast, the Americans seek to preserve NATO as a military alliance responsible for western European security under American leadership and to equip NATO with competences extending beyond the NA TO area. Whilst insisting on greater western European burden sharing and security coordination, the Americans see the roles of the CSCE and the WEU as complementary to NATO's.     

China fuels its future with Africa's riches

There have been mixed reactions to China's aggressive pursuit of Africa's energy resources both within African countries and in the international community, for a range of different reasons. The extent of the Chinese penetration means Africans need to look at how to best exploit the situation for sustainable development, rather than for short‐term gain.     

Succession,consolidation, and transition in China’s future

Succession politics in China is usually seen as one political process. This article argues that in fact, political succession in China after Deng Xiaoping should be seen as three analytically and politically distinct processes: succession, consolidation, and transition. Each process requires different political skills and attributes, and success in one process does not guarantee success in another, and may in fact work against success in another. The article argues that Jiang Zemin is likely to be the successor, but that he will have great difficulty consolidating power after Deng’s death. One way he might consolidate power is to reverse the verdict of June 4. The failure of Jiang or anyone else to consolidate power is likely to slow economic transition.     

The future of urban water services in Latin America

In recent decades, problems with the provision of drinking water and sanitation services around the world have increasingly been addressed by attempts at privatisation, recasting clean water as an essentially economic, rather than public, good. This approach gained particular acceptance in Latin America, but with limited success. In order to address the full range of social, economic and environmental values necessary to sustain water resources over time, public and governmental involvement in establishing integrated water management, pursuing ‘soft path’ approaches, assuring stakeholder input and setting policy will be essential to the process.     

中俄经济结构异同及其对两国经济关系的影响(上)

本文从三大部类产业的比例关系、工业内部产业构成、主导现阶段经济增长的支柱产业以及各自产业发展的趋势等诸多角度对中俄两国经济结构和产业结构的异同作了分析,认为两国经济和产业结构的特征对双方经济关系有两个方面的影响:一是决定了自发贸易(即市场主导的商品交换)的空间,即产业互补;二是引发了两国经济合作的长期可持续性问题.现有的产业结构为两国的经济合作提出了亟待解决的课题:两国的经济关系必须从互补性贸易走向战略性合作.这种战略型合作模式不是立足于静态比较优势,而是立足于国家整体利益和动态社会收益.     

The future of the international nonproliferation regime

The nuclear nonproliferation regime should be strengthened in order to meet the needs of an unstable international security environment, says Hiroyoshi Kurihara, Senior Executive Director of the Nuclear Material Control Center in Tokyo. He proposes that Japan can contribute more actively to strengthening nonproliferation efforts by considering the establishment of a regional confidence building mechanism to monitor peaceful nuclear activities in the Northeast Asian region. The establishment of such a mechanism is vital, he says, if the nations of the region are to develop confidence in each other such that war, and particularly nuclear war, between them will become impossible.     

The future of coastal development in the Yellow Sea Rimlands

With its strategic location in East Asia, the Yellow Sea Rim is becoming an important economic region, where the socialist economies of China and North Korea and the market economies of Japan and South Korea interact and exchange for their mutual benefit. In light of the recent rapprochement among Northeast Asian countries, the article describes the emerging pattern of development in the Yellow Sea Rim. It assesses the potential gains of opening up the region by assuming a complete or partial removal of political barriers. Anticipating the future of cooperative regional development in the Yellow Sea Rimlands, the article discusses regional strategies and key issues involved in cooperation, in particular between China and South Korea.     

Harnessing Africa's sun: China and the development of solar energy in Kenya

Africa has immense energy challenges, characterised by low rates of access to electricity, irregularities and a general shortage in electricity supply. Solar energy provides African governments with the opportunity to address these challenges. With an average quantity of five to six kilowatts of power from the sun per square metre per day, the continent has vast potential for producing energy from the sun. The moderate success that Kenya has achieved in its solar energy industry is commendable and provides a good platform for other countries aspiring to extend electrification to its population through solar energy. China's emerging capabilities in solar technology also offers the continent the opportunity to take decisive steps towards sustainable energy. The proposed partnership between China's Tianpu Xianxing Enterprise and Kenya's Electrogen Technologies to build a solar panel factory in Kenya is a positive step towards addressing energy challenges.     

Coping with energy insecurity: China’s response in global perspective

Already the world’s second largest energy consumer, China has accounted for more than a third of the increase in global oil demand since 2000. Due to infrastructural bottlenecks as well as supply shortages, intensified by sustained growth, the PRC is likely to become an increasingly important factor in global oil and gas markets, and to pursue an increasingly active energy diplomacy. Reducing energy vulnerability will be a key imperative. The PRC is striving to reduce its energy vulnerability by: (1) promoting energy efficiency; (2) diversifying away from its heavy reliance on coal and oil, toward nuclear power and natural gas; (3) improving domestic energy infrastructure; (4) promoting national energy champions; (5) deepening reliance on congenial nations; and (6) reducing reliance on sea lanes dominated by the U.S. Navy. Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Australia, and African energy producers are special priority targets of its energy diplomacy, which is likely to become more salient in China's overall foreign policy in coming years.     

The impact of the information age

The Internet era of the twenty‐first century will be one of unprecedented information exchange on a global scale, but there is potential for the cultures and values of certain nations to overwhelm and erase those of other nations. Toru Nishigaki, professor at Tokyo University's Information Center for Social Science Research on Japan, argues that a multilingual information processing environment is essential for ensuring a stable order in the twenty‐first century. This paper was originally presented at the IIPS 10th Anniversary Symposium, “Transforming the Global Order for the 21st Century,” held in Tokyo on 18–19 May 1998.     

The future of the Japan‐US alliance

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in light of emerging multilateral security dialogues, there are those on both sides of the Pacific beginning to question the raison d'être of the US‐Japan alliance. Is this alliance still viable? What kind of bilateral alliance would be most desirable in the future? Can it interact effectively with a multilateral security framework? Patrick M. Cronin, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., asks these and other questions. In answering them, he maintains that the US‐Japan security alliance is the indispensable foundation for security in the Asia‐Pacific region.     

The many phases of nuclear energy

Nuclear energy, stresses the author, whether used for peaceful or other purposes, is associated with a wide range of complicated and unresolved issues. Efforts to find solutions — indeed, even to take the next steps toward that end — will be successful only when these diverse but closely interrelated issues are clarified and understood. Ryukichi Imai, formerly Ambassador of Japan to Kuwait, to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, and to Mexico; Counselor to the Atomic Energy Commission of Japan; Professor of Social Sciences at Kyorin University; and author of many books and articles on nuclear issues, is a Distinguished Research Fellow at IIPS. He first presented this paper at the Oxford Energy Seminar cosponsored by OPEC and OAPEC at St. Catherine's College in September 1994. Some additions and deletions have been made since then.