俄罗斯经济的转折点与“俄罗斯病”

俄罗斯经济一度在油价的暴涨中实现了高增长,但在2008年油价暴跌之后,俄面临着经济增长的转折点。虽说俄罗斯的经济转型伴随着一系列的市场经济结构改革,但还是对于油价变动反应过度。俄受油价变动摆布的资源依赖型经济可统称为"俄罗斯病"。这其实是一种"石油诅咒"综合症,但它不同于"荷兰病"。虽然俄罗斯历经石油价格高涨→实际汇率升值→进口扩大的发展路径,却没有出现GDP增长递减和制造业增长低迷的现象。因为俄国内市场大于荷兰,而且制造业发展缓慢。我们不能期待出现治愈"俄罗斯病"的特效药和特需,而有效利用资源利益来推动其经济发展是俄罗斯的现实选择。俄罗斯以"推翻世界史"的速度实现了开放的市场经济,但是,在重构文化背景和制造业基础之后再来发展经济恐怕还需时日。     

俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。     

Towards a Sociological Understanding of Islamic Radicalism in Indonesia

An upswing in labour costs and currency appreciation during the 1980s caused companies from more advanced Asian economies, such as Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan, to search for new manufacturing sites in order to obtain lower costs. China was one of the main options for these outward investments, with its huge and rapidly growing market, plentiful, low-cost labour and vast territory. The literature on foreign direct investment has analysed the location strategies of multinational enterprises across national borders, but there have been fewer studies of location decisions by foreign investors within the borders of a single country. We examine how companies determine which location offers the best opportunity to establish an assembly-type manufacturing site in China. We surveyed 17 Taiwanese enterprises that have established this kind of manufacturing base in China, and found that the major factors influencing location selection are economics, politics, the cluster effect and bureaucratic efficiency. It was found that the eastern region, which includes Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, was considered better for establishing manufacturing bases than other regions.     

South Korea-China economic relations: Trends and prospects

Since the establishment of official diplomatic ties in 1992, bilateral economic relations between Korea and China have rapidly improved. The economic dynamism in China is expected to continue in the future. As continued economic development of China gains momentum, the economic relationship between the two countries will further be strengthened. However, future bilateral economic cooperation will take a path that differs significantly from the past. Both the quantity and quality of economic relations will increase and improve. In particular, Korea’s investment in China, which tends to be concentrated in the manufacturing sector, will broaden out to nonmanufacturing sectors, with the strategic motive of gaining access to China’s huge domestic market. His publications includeNortheast Asian Economic Cooperation: Perspectives and Challenges (KIEP, 1991).     

Malaysia: The anxieties of success

Malaysia is a complex social and political phenomenon that could easily have become mired in ethnic conflict and economic stagnation. Malaysia has had to manage a shift from a natural resource-based economy to an export-oriented manufacturing system while balancing delicate racial and religious divisions in a democratic, constitutional federation. A proud and nationalist history has been confronted by global economic interdependence. Malaysia’s political leadership has been able to balance competing and almost contradictory domestic and international demands to carve out a prominent position for the country in world affairs while bringing forth a progressive economic entity. That success is neither accidental nor incidental.     

Singapore′s globalization strategy

For singapore, it is not a question of whether to globalize, but how to globalize. While Singapore may be handicapped by its small size and lack of natural resources, it seems that these drawbacks could be less of a problem as the world economy becomes more sophisticated. Physical size and natural resources will become less important for economic growth when compared with human capital, information, and knowledge in the future. To build the city-state, the Singaporean government adopted a number of bold strategies to develop its economy, making it a leader among the newly industrialized nations involved in the region. Singapore's export-oriented industrialization evolved in several stages and had to overcome obstacles along the way. Its success was dependent on enlightened government policy in cultivating good relations with multinational corporations and cooperation between the government-run and private enterprises. A review of the economy in the last decade gave birth to the Strategic Economic Plan of 1991. Besides underlining the importance of the manufacturing and service sectors, the plan also emphasized the regionalization and globalization of the economy. While the Asian economic crisis has affected Singapore's development, it has not changed Singapore's determination to globalize and liberalize its economy. An earlier version of this article was presented at the conference on “Globalization and new Governance,” hosted by the Semin Foundation and Asia Pacific Public Affairs Forum in Suwon, Korea, 7–11 October 1999.     

中国与印度国际竞争力的比较与解释

本文首先对中印两国经济社会总体发展状况进行了比较,认为无论从经济指标还是从社会指标考察,中国均比印度处于更高的发展阶段。对两国制造业国际竞争力的分析比较表明,中国制造业的国际竞争力总体上强于印度。对两国服务业国际竞争力的研究表明:其一,在大多数年份,印度服务业的综合国际竞争力强于中国;其二,中国服务业国际竞争力的提升主要来源于竞争优势。虽然中国服务业综合竞争力弱于印度,但实际中国服务业的竞争优势始终强于印度,只是由于中国制造业发展速度更快,才使得中国服务业的比较优势弱于印度。文章最后从劳动力素质、基础设施、政府作用、社会异质性、宗教文化、海外侨民六个方面分析了中印之间竞争力存在差异的原因。     

战后东南亚"南强北弱"经济格局成因分析

二战后,东南亚诸国都制定经济发展战略,重建国民经济体系。但是,到20世纪80年代末90年代初期,北方印支三国及缅甸的经济发展水平远远落后于南方各国,东南亚地区形成了“南强北弱”的经济格局。究其成因,主要外因有:西方殖民主义者殖民统治方式的不同对东南亚区域内经济发展的不平衡起了加剧作用,美苏在东南亚的“冷战”及相关战争使印支三国失去相对和平的经济恢复环境;内因则是南北方国家经济发展体制与发展战略方面存在差距。     

Foreign investment,industrial restructuring and dependent development in Singapore

Singapore's industrial development and restructuring are very much dependent on foreign investment. Despite the apparent benefits of foreign investment and Singapore's success in export-oriented manufacturing, there are worrisome aspects arising from the large and growing dependency on such investment in the manufacturing sector as Singapore moves toward a developed country status. This article explores some of the consequences of such dependency. In terms of industrial pattern, foreign investment has created and maintained a dualistic industrial structure in manufacturing. Foreign firms and government industrial policies have suppressed and marginalized local entrepreneurship. Export-oriented industrialization has opened the employment doors for women in manufacturing. However, women are predominantly found in low pay, dead end jobs in the assembly line of Singapore's new industrial order. With the implementation of a new wave of industrial restructuring strategies, new capital and technological intensive foreign investments are welcomed and solicited. However, the local labour supply is unable to meet the increased demands. Foreign labour has been called in to fill the gaps. This inevitably distorts labour market outcomes and heightens the income inequality index.     

In Search of Strategies to Face the Economic Crisis: Evidence from Greek Farms

This study examines the strategies – defensive or aggressive, individual or collective – undertaken by sheep farms in a Greek rural area in order to face the repercussions of the economic crisis and their effects on the productivity and economic performance of these farms. The article presents the results of a farm management survey conducted in 2010 and repeated in 2014 in northern Evros, Greece. The mix of strategies – mainly passive – adopted by farmers shows their confusion in the face of crisis conditions, which has resulted in reduced productivity, more use of family labour and a rise in collective actions.     

菲律宾逆向应对中国入世和CAFTA的举措及其原因探析

本文介绍菲律宾政府与商界对中国入世和CAFTA的看法,以及菲律宾政府所采取的逆向应对举措,并从菲律宾的"逆工业化"过程的特点,制造业滞后发展与中小企业惧变,菲律宾政府与商界关系的变化与互动,菲律宾政治的特点以及21世纪初期菲政府的经济外交政策等角度,作了深层次的原因探析.     

Perception of risks associated with economic sanctions: the case of Russian manufacturing

This paper is focused on assessing the risk factors for Russian manufacturing firms posed by sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU, US, and other countries in 2014. While there is an extensive literature assessing the successes and failures of international sanctions on the economies of both those imposing and targeted by sanctions on a macroeconomic level, we are more interested in trying to understand the corporate response – i.e. which firms evaluate the introduction and increasing scale of economic sanctions as a threat to their corporate strategy, and their possible reactions aimed at adjusting to a changing environment due to the geopolitical shock. Our research, based on a recent survey of manufacturing companies, provides evidence that over the last decade Russian manufacturing firms have become much more integrated into the global economy than is commonly assumed, through foreign direct investment, foreign trade (including imports of both technological equipment and raw materials and components), international partnerships, and by extensively supplying foreign companies that operate in Russia. Considering the self-selection effect of the top-performing firms in terms of foreign trade, we can state that sanctions could prove most harmful not only for the targeted firms, but for the entire population of better-performing and globalized firms involved in foreign trade with the EU and Ukraine. Thus, the impact of the sanctions on the prospects of the Russian manufacturing sector may be very strong over the medium-to-long term.     

印度的港口导向型发展战略及其影响

《萨格尔马拉国家远景规划》于2015年5月25日被印度联合内阁批准通过,并于2016年4月在孟买首届"海事印度峰会上发布。这一规划是印度中长期发展战略,也是印度海运部的旗舰项目,其核心是"港口导向型发展"战略,主要确定了四大支柱,即港口现代化、港口互联互通、港口导向工业化、沿海社区发展。这一规划的实施对印度制造业的推进将是革命性的,将以最小的基础设施投资降低进出口和国内贸易的物流成本。规划的影响也将是深远的,通过优化货物运输来降低物流成本,提升原材料、技能、配套基础设施和现有产业集聚的竞争力,以吸引世界制造业向印度转移;要通过适当的政策和机构干预,支持和加强港口导向发展,为印度经济发展提供动力;促进港口主导的经济社会发展和对外合作,是该国印度洋战略的重要依托,会对印度洋战略形成有利支撑;印度的新海洋战略与其东向行动政策配合,还会大大拓展印—太战略空间,将加强印太合作、夯实印太战略。因此,我们应深入研究中印发展战略,在两国领导人引领下建立两国互信机制,对接印度港口导向型发展战略,与印度联手参与孟中印缅经济走廊地区的港口建设。加强国际地区问题协调、引领建立地区非传统安全合作机制,共同开发南亚、东南亚、中东、非洲国家第三方市场。     

亚洲经济一体化——基于多国FTA战略角度

过去十年内,亚洲经济一体化取得了长足的发展,这一地区的主要经济体开始广泛地参与到区域经济一体化进程中。但是,由于历史纠葛、经济规模和发展水平差异,各方的区域经济一体化战略存在很大的差异。区域内外各方力量的博弈,更为亚洲经济一体化的未来发展增加了新的不确定性,也使得亚洲经济一体化开始逐渐偏离亚洲统一市场/大范围的区域FTA目标。唯有未来亚洲经济体经济实力格局发生变化,才可能从内部促成亚洲经济一体化回归其既定目标。     

俄罗斯发展战略演变的理论逻辑

俄罗斯社会经济发展战略演变包括两个内容:调整的历史和内在的逻辑。俄罗斯经济结构的继承性是分析问题的历史起点,经济发展的内在规律是经济发展战略调整要遵循的理论逻辑。作为经济现代化的基础性制度保障,相对于技术工艺层面的创新,市场经济体制的完善更加重要,这不仅带来资源配置效率的提升,同时提出了保障市场经济体制有效运行的市场强化型政府的要求,由此更推动了国家的全面现代化。     

Social capital, social liabilities, and political capital: Social networks and informal manufacturing in Nigeria

This article addresses the question of why social networks havefailed to promote economic development in Africa when they havebeen associated with economic growth in other parts of the world.Detailed field research traces the role of social networks inthe economic organization of two dynamic informal enterpriseclusters in the town of Aba in south-eastern Nigeria, an arearenowned for the density of its popular economic networks andfor the rapid development of small-scale manufacturing underNigeria’s structural adjustment programme. Focusing onthe role of embedded social institutions and their restructuringamid the competitive pressures of rapid liberalization, I considerthe extent to which social networks in Aba constitute ‘socialcapital’ capable of promoting economic development inthe context of ongoing liberalization, ‘social liabilities’that undermine accumulation through a social logic of redistributionand parochialism, or ‘political capital’ throughwhich popular forces are incorporated into the ‘shadowstructures’ of predatory states. This article challengesthe essentialism of much of the contemporary literature on Africansocial networks, arguing for a sharper focus on the specificinstitutional capacities of indigenous economic institutions.It calls for greater attention to the role of rapid liberalizationand state neglect in explaining the developmental failures ofAfrican informal enterprise networks.     

Afghanistan reconstruction in regional perspective

The reconstruction of Afghanistan is in part dependent upon the reintegration of Afghanistan into the international community. Reintegration, in turn, is dependent upon Afghanistan's trans-border infrastructure of communication, trade, transport, water, power and investment. Accordingly, increased regional economic cooperation is a key element of Afghanistan's reconstruction. This article analyses regional economic cooperation in the South and Central Asian region in terms of logic, institutions, actors, and expectations. The article argues in favour of inclusiveness to enlarge the number of beneficiaries of economic benefits of regional economic cooperation while avoiding the pitfalls of risky strategies of faulty collective action.     

Globalization and the global city: Meeting the challenges of the twenty-first century

This article considers the impact of globalization on the development of a nation-state's economic competitiveness in the twenty-first century. It argues that cities must enhance their governing capacity, i.e., adjust their economic bases, administrative structures and business cultures to suit the needs of transnational corporations. Using South Korea as a case study, the article makes a case for futher democratization of political power and decentralization of economic power. The article also suggests a set of strategies for cities to be viable in the globalizing world economy.     

The continuing evolution of Japan's business model

We need to recognize the abiding strengths of the Japanese business model and adapt them to a changing world, says Yoshinori Usui, Director of International Affairs at the Institute for International Economic Studies in Tokyo. In this article, Usui points out that rekindling economic expansion in Japan is indispensable to economic recovery in Southeast Asia and to the lasting growth of the global economy. He discusses the merits of the Japanese business model and argues that its basic elements remain entirely sound and effective. Japan's lack of competitiveness in non‐manufacturing sectors, he says, is more due to excessive regulation than to any failings of its business model. Usui speaks in optimistic terms about the potential for combining the best elements of the traditional Japanese model with the worthy elements of the Anglo‐Saxon model.     

The Terminal Crisis of the “Participatory Government” and the Election of Lee Myung Bak

This paper examines the election of Lee Myung Bak through the terminal crisis of the Roh Moo Hyun government that preceded it. I start with an analysis of the election of Lee Myung Bak and the electoral strategies of the liberal-progressive bloc in the December 2007 election and then move on to detail how these strategies shed light on tensions within Korean progressive politics since the transition to democracy in 1987. These tensions inform what I shall call the “terminal crisis” of Roh's “participatory government.” I argue that this crisis involves a problem of articulation within progressive politics between a politics of reunification and one grounded in egalitarian economic reform, including the lack of an alternative to the different forms of neo-liberalism embraced by both the Roh government and the conservative government of Lee Myung Bak. My hope is that thorough examination of these tensions that have informed the liberal-progressive bloc during the long decade since 1987 can spur reflection on the role of social movements in Korean democratisation and the dilemmas they face in crafting strategies for political and economic reform.