Defensive Gun Uses: New Evidence from a National Survey

The number of civilian defensive gun uses (DGUs) against criminal attackers is regularly invoked in public policy debates as a benefit of widespread private ownership of firearms. Yet there is considerable uncertainty for the prevalence of civilian DGUs, with estimates ranging from 108,000 (using the National Crime Victimization Survey) to 2.5 million (using smaller telephone surveys) per year. In this paper we analyze the results of a new national random-digit-dial telephone survey to estimate the prevalence of DGU and then discuss the plausibility of the results in light of other well-known facts and possible sources of bias in survey data for sensitive behaviors. Because DGU is a relatively rare event by any measure, a small proportion of respondents who falsely report a gun use can produce substantial overestimates of the prevalence of DGU, even if every true defensive gun user conceals his or her use. We find that estimates from this new survey are apparently subject to a large positive bias, which calls into question the accuracy of DGU estimates based on data from general-population surveys. Our analysis also suggests that available survey data are not able to determine whether reported DGU incidents, even if true, add to or detract from public health and safety.     

Using Booking Data to Model Drug User Arrest Rates: A Preliminary to Estimating the Prevalence of Chronic Drug Use

Public policy is often concerned with the size and characteristics of special populations that are difficult to reach in household surveys. Chronic drug users, who often live outside conventional households, provide the illustration motivating this paper. An alternative to household surveys is to question chronic drug users where they congregate—jails, treatment programs, and shelters, for example. Using such opportunistic data for prevalence estimation raises difficult problems for statistical inference: Study subjects who arrive at the collection points cannot be deemed a random sample of the general population. However, if we could estimate the rates at which chronic drug users arrive at the collection points, then we could use those estimates to weight the sample to represent the population. This paper presents a modified Poisson mixture model used to estimate the stochastic process that accounts for how chronic drug users get arrested. It uses that model to estimate arrest rates for 38 counties using up to sixteen quarters of data from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring survey.

Lost in space? the role of place in the delivery of social welfare law advice over the telephone and face-to-face

ABSTRACT

Advice that is provided exclusively over the telephone has been promoted by government as more convenient and accessible than face-to-face appointments. The resulting push towards telephone-only provision, as implemented by the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012, challenges the long history of association between social welfare law advice and local delivery within disadvantaged communities. This article reports on qualitative research comparing telephone and face-to-face advice which uncovers the continuing relevance of place in the dynamics and mechanics of social welfare law provision. Familiarity with the geographical location, knowledge of local policies and procedures, relationships with opponents and allies, and an understanding of the ‘local legal culture’ mean that face-to-face advisers are often able to conduct their legal casework more effectively. Conversely, local knowledge is unlikely to be available to Community Legal Advice telephone advisers. This research suggests that, in addition, telephone-only advisers may be developing a more narrow understanding of the essential qualities of casework. These findings are particularly significant in view of the likely future expansion of remote methods of delivery in legal aid work.     

Justice on the line? A comparison of telephone and face-to-face advice in social welfare legal aid

This paper investigates the impact on legal advice of the major shift to telephone-only services in social welfare legal aid, which took place in April 2013. An empirical study comparing telephone and face-to-face advice reveals that face-to-face contact has considerable advantages in the advice interview. Based on interviews and observations with housing law clients, their lawyers and advisers, the findings of this qualitative study demonstrate that clients and lawyers often find it easier to express themselves and understand each other face-to-face. The face-to-face interview benefits from features including the stronger emotional connection between lawyer and client, non-verbal communication, more expansive conversation and the greater ability to consult and confer over documents. Telephone-only advice may be suitable for some more capable clients and uncomplicated matters, but this qualitative research shows that vulnerable clients are more likely to be adversely affected by the potential disadvantages of telephone-only contact. Clients with more complex social needs or with more serious or urgent cases are better served by face-to-face advice. The findings of this research should inform the LASPO review and future priorities for legal aid funding.     

Simulated evidence on the prospects of treating more drug-involved offenders

Despite a growing consensus among scholars that substance abuse treatment is effective at reducing offending, strict eligibility rules and budgetary considerations greatly limit the impact that current models of therapeutic jurisprudence can have on public safety in the United States. A question of pressing importance for U.S. drug policy is whether it is beneficial to expand application of this model to treat every offender in need and, if so, whether a set of evidence-based, going-to-scale strategies can be developed to prioritize participation. We use evidence from several sources to construct a synthetic dataset for answering the question: What are the benefits we can reasonably expect by expanding treatment to drug-involved offenders? We combine information from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) and the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program to estimate the likelihood of various arrestee profiles having drug addiction or dependence problems. We use the same sources to also develop prevalence estimates of these profiles among arrestees nationally. We use information in the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS) to compute expected crime-reducing benefits of treating various types of drug-involved offenders under different treatment modalities. We find that annually nearly 1.5 million (probably guilty) arrestees in the U.S. are at risk of abuse or dependence and that treatment alone could avert several million crimes that these individuals would otherwise commit. Results vary by treatment modality and arrestee traits and those results are described herein.     

Factors Associated with Domestic Violence and Sexual Assault Victimization

This study explored factors associated with a lifetime history of domestic violence and sexual assault in a sample of welfare recipients in Illinois. Results indicate that childhood exposure to domestic violence is a risk factor for both sexual assault and domestic violence victimization, but that childhood physical abuse is only a risk factor for domestic violence. Increased education and employment skills and having more children were also risk factors for domestic violence victimization. Domestic violence was significantly associated with depression, while sexual assault was associated with low social support and a greater perceived need for mental health services. Frequent alcohol and drug use were not associated with either type of victimization. Research implications are discussed.     

The Andrews’ principles of risk, needs, and responsivity as applied in drug treatment programs: meta-analysis of crime and drug use outcomes

Objectives

The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to answer the question: Can the Andrews principles of risk, needs, and responsivity, originally developed for programs that treat offenders, be extended to programs that treat drug abusers?

Methods

Drawing from a dataset that included 243 independent comparisons, we conducted random-effects meta-regression and ANOVA-analog meta-analyses to test the Andrews principles by averaging crime and drug use outcomes over a diverse set of programs for drug abuse problems.

Results

For crime outcomes, in the meta-regressions, the point estimates for each of the principles were substantial, consistent with previous studies of the Andrews principles. There was also a substantial point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles. However, almost all the 95 % confidence intervals included the zero point. For drug use outcomes, in the meta-regressions, the point estimates for each of the principles was approximately zero; however, the point estimate for programs exhibiting a greater number of the principles was somewhat positive. All the estimates for the drug use principles had confidence intervals that included the zero point.

Conclusions

This study supports previous findings from primary research studies targeting the Andrews principles that those principles are effective in reducing crime outcomes, here in meta-analytic research focused on drug treatment programs. By contrast, programs that follow the principles appear to have very little effect on drug use outcomes. Primary research studies that experimentally test the Andrews principles in drug treatment programs are recommended.     

Mail vs. telephone surveys of criminal justice attitudes: A comparative analysis

This study compares results from surveys using two modes of administration. A subset of questions from the 1992Texas Crime Poll, a statewide poll conducted annually by mail, was replicated in telephone interviews using the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System. The phone survey yielded better participation rates but less complete responses to individual attitude questions than did the mail poll. As expected, the mail survey was less expensive but less efficient than the automated phone survey. The central finding was that all but one of the responses to five attitude questions difered significantly across the surveys. The samples differed in their demographic composition, but this did not explain differences in the substantive findings from the mail and phone surveys. The discussion considers alternative explanations for differences in the findings from the two surveys and suggests direction for further comparative research.     

Welfare Reform: Prescription for Abuse? A Report on New Research Studies Documenting the Relationship of Domestic Violence and Welfare

Anecdotally, welfare‐to‐work programs have documented that domestic violence serves as a welfare‐to‐work barrier by partners' interference with education, training and work, or by physical or mental trauma which also prevents employment. Four new research studies, which, although using different methods, including random and nonrandom surveys of welfare caseloads and random neighborhood surveys, document high and remarkably consistent prevalence of domestic violence within welfare caseloads. Although much more needs to be known, the prevalence of domestic violence in these women's lives requires specific domestic violence‐sensitive welfare policies lest women become injured during the welfare‐to‐work process.     

Monitoring the uninsured: a state policy perspective

Because states have primary responsibility for the implementation of public health insurance programs, states need timely, good quality data to evaluate programs, monitor trends in the number and characteristics of the uninsured, and better understand the dynamics of health insurance coverage. This article provides a synthesis of the data sources available to states for monitoring rates of health insurance coverage. Information was collected through a comprehensive review of state and national health surveys and in-depth interviews with state analysts in all fifty states. Our findings suggest that national surveys do not meet states' needs for data, and in response, states have initiated their own household surveys. We provide information on thirty-six household surveys that are used to estimate state levels of health insurance coverage. We recommend that national and state efforts be better coordinated to facilitate efficient use of resources to achieve good state-level date.     

Mental Health Problems among Prison Inmates: the Effect of Welfare Deficiencies,Drug Use and Self‐Efficacy

In this paper, we investigate the differential contribution of accumulated welfare deficiencies, drug use, and self‐efficacy on inmates' current symptoms of mental health problems. Few studies so far have investigated inmates' mental health based on empirical data covering both social and psychological predictors. Our analyses are aimed at the following research questions: (a) what is the relationship between welfare deficiencies, drug use, and symptom reporting among prison inmates? (b) is this relationship influenced by inmates' perceived self‐efficacy? and (c) how might this information be used to inform the discussion of challenges in prisoner re‐entry? Findings are based on a national survey among prison inmates in Norway, focusing on living conditions generally, as well as mental distress, drug use, and self‐efficacy. The findings indicate serious accumulation of disadvantage, and more welfare deficiencies among drug users and those suffering from mental distress. When it comes to prediction of mental distress, accumulation of welfare deficiencies and self‐efficacy both turned out as significant contributors. The findings are discussed both in terms of practical implications, and in terms of how they illustrate some of the shortcomings inherent in a traditional welfare research perspective.     

SOME NEW EVIDENCE ON THE SERIOUSNESS OF CRIME*

Previous studies of the seriousness of crime have attempted to elicit information from public surveys. This paper reports on an alternative method of ranking the severity of crime. Actual victim injury rates are combined with jury awards in personal injury accident cases to estimate pain, suffering, and fear. Crime-related death rates are combined with estimates of the value of life to arrive at monetary values for the risk of death. These estimates are combined with out-of-pocket costs (such as medical costs and lost wages) to arrive at total dollar estimates of the cost of individual crimes to victims. These dollar estimates are then used to rank the seriousness of crimes. Although these two approaches yield surprisingly similar rankings, the monetary estimates indicate that violent crimes are relatively more costly to victims than survey results might imply.     

Identifying Predictors for Children Witnessing Intimate Partner Violence

Research has shown that intimate partner violence (IPV) prevalence and severity is higher and IPV duration is longer among couples that have children. Women frequently report that their children are the reason why they stay, leave, or return to an IPV relationship. Our study used results from a two-wave telephone survey to determine what IPV-associated factors were significant predictors of respondents’ children witnessing IPV, as well as estimating prevalence of children’s exposure to violence. We found that an increase in respondents’ age was significantly associated with increased odds of a child being exposed to violence. We also found that children witnessing violence were almost twice as likely to have mothers who reported leaving abusers. We hypothesize that increasing age corresponds to improved confidence in help-seeking behaviors. Our findings represent an important first step for future research on understanding how children influence IPV victims’ decision-making in seeking out service providers for help.     

Using network sampling in crime victimization surveys

Since crime victimizations are statistically rare events, surveys to estimate rates of victimization are difficult and expensive. In this paper, we examine the advantages of network sampling over traditional methods for conducting crime victimization surveys. Network sampling links population households in specified ways, for reporting purposes, in order to increase the probabilities of locating households with particular characteristics. We conducted a reverse record check field experiment to test whether a telephone survey using network sampling is feasible to collect crime victimization data. Three types of crimes-burglary, robbery, and assault-were tested along with two types of networks-relatives and co-workers/close friends. This paper examines the extent to which victims report their victimization experiences in a general crime and victimization interview and the extent to which a randomly selected relative or close friend will report the same victimization incident in an identical interview. A number of multiplicity counting rules are compared in terms of reporting errors and a mean square error analysis.     

Prevalence of mental disorders and deliberate self-harm in Greek male prisoners

The aim of this survey was to determine the prevalence of current and lifetime mental disorder and deliberate self-harm among male prisoners in Greece. The subjects were 80 randomly selected remanded and sentenced prisoners in a Greek prison. They were assessed for mental disorder including suicidality and substance misuse using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). We also collected information regarding contact with psychiatric services, previous deliberate self-harm as well as physical health and conducted a brief assessment of their intellectual functioning. Mental disorder was diagnosed in 63 (78.7%) prisoners. The main diagnoses were: anxiety disorder, 30 (37.5%); major depression, 22 (27.5%); antisocial personality disorder, 30 (37.5%); alcohol dependence, 21 (26.3%) and opiate dependence 22 (27.5%) and schizophrenic or bipolar disorder 9 (11.2%). Deliberate self-harm prior to and during imprisonment was reported by 15% and 2.5% of prisoners, respectively, and 12 prisoners (15%) had IQ below 75. This survey identified a significant level of need for specialist mental health services in prison. Further studies are required to assess the specific needs of those patients who are too unwell to remain in prison, the need for specific treatments for substance misuse and improved assessment/treatment of common psychiatric disorders.     

Relational legal consciousness in the punitive welfare state: How Dutch welfare officials shape clients' perceptions of law

With a growing number of strict obligations and harsh sanctions for welfare recipients, the Netherlands has increasingly become a punitive welfare state. This article looks at what this means for welfare clients and their commonsense understandings of the law. To analyze how welfare officials shape clients' legal consciousness, I draw on an online survey among Dutch welfare clients (N = 1305) and a correlation analysis. The findings show that there is a clear relationship between welfare clients' own legal consciousness and their assessment of welfare officials' beliefs about the law. However, not all elements of their legal consciousness are relationally influenced by the same factors. Also, clients' self-reported compliance behavior is less relationally influenced than other elements of their legal consciousness. This study adds to our understanding of the mechanisms that constitute the production of relational and second-order legal consciousness and it contributes to the development of new research methods to study people's perceptions of law.     

Estimating the uncertainty associated with Widmark's equation as commonly applied in forensic toxicology

No computation is performed more frequently by forensic toxicologists than that involving Widmark's equation. The equation is employed to estimate either the number of drinks consumed or the corresponding blood or breath alcohol concentration. Despite the wide use of Widmark's equation, rarely is an uncertainty estimate also provided. Estimates from Widmark's equation involve at least seven uncertain random variables. Uncertainty estimates are presented that rely on methods of general error propagation compared to a method developed by Widmark. Assuming reasonable variable and uncertainty estimates, the error propagation method yielded for N=10.4 drinks, a combined uncertainty (standard deviation) of 1.3 drinks (CV=12.3%). Similarly, estimating the blood alcohol concentration yielded for 0.120 g/100 ml, an uncertainty of 0.0255 g/100 ml (CV=21.2%). Widmark's uncertainty method yielded 1.6 drinks (CV=15.4%). The derivation of Widmark's uncertainty estimate is also presented, showing that he considered only rho and beta to be uncertain. Widmark estimates for the number of drinks should include a 2CV estimate of approximately 25% while the blood alcohol concentration estimate should include a 2CV estimate of approximately 42%. Including valid estimates of uncertainty should enhance the legal admissibility and confidence for Widmark estimations.     

Welfare reform, substance use, and mental health

Reform has transformed traditional entitlement to cash welfare under Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) into a transitional program known as Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). Because of the new work requirements and the time-limited nature of assistance, policy makers are increasingly confronted with what to do when welfare recipients do not effectively make the transition from welfare to work. Increasingly, the language of public health is being used to determine who is "employable" and who is not. Thus renewed attention is being focused on the individual characteristics of participants themselves, particularly specific diagnoses that might reduce employability. This article focuses on substance abuse and mental health problems among single mothers and examines their relationship to welfare receipt. We analyze data from the 1994 and 1995 National Household Survey of Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and find that 19 percent of welfare recipients meet the criteria for a DSM-III-R (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, third edition revised) psychiatric diagnosis. About the same percentage have used illicit drugs during the previous year. Logistic regression results indicate that mental and behavioral health problems that are significant barriers to self-sufficiency are increasingly important in this era of time-limited benefits.