Afghan Reconstruction: Regional Challenges and Responsibilities

The reconstruction of Afghanistan has been gathering momentum since March 2009 when the U.S.President Barack Obama's administration first announced its Afghanistan-Pakistan (AFPAC) Strategy.1 This has been especially true since July 1st,2011,when U.S.troops began first withdrawing from Afghanistan.At the same time,under the guise of being involved in the reconstruction of Afghanistan,regional powers have been competing with each other to cultivate a favorable geo-strategic environment for themselves.     

Amid Turmoil,the Middle East Is Reshaping

Turmoil in Iraq reached a new level when ISIL seized Mosul after the Iraq security force collapsed on June 10.Although ISIL,the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant,took over Fallujah in early 2014,this latest development has deeper repercussions.On June 29,ISIL declared a large territory between Iraq and Syria a new state.The leader,a Baghdadi who is wanted by the U.S.,was appointed as caliph.Together with the situation in Syria,the whole region is in tumult and remapping of borders is threatened.The Iraq government is fighting back with limited gains while the international community reacts with only noisy discussions.     

阿富汗新政府:困难与希望并存

阿富汗终于完成首次总统大选。阿富汗人民和各种政治力量渴望和平稳定以及美国和国际社会的支持为新政府的执政奠定了基础。但新政府面临的国家重建和发展的任务艰巨,新的政党纷争和政治不稳定的可能性依然存在。新政府面临的是希望与困难并存的局面。     

Place and Afghan Refugees: A Contribution to Turton

This article contributes to the discussion on place/space/identityrecently re-opened by David Turton, who introduces the notionof ‘place-making project’ to describe the relationbetween a group of Ethiopian agro-pastoralists and place. Thisarticle aims to expand Turton's framework to situations otherthan the one he depicts, as well as to develop some of the conceptspresented therein. With reference to Afghans in Pakistan, thefollowing arguments are made. First, a vast array of overlappingplace-making projects simultaneously encompass territory andindividuals, attributing a different significance to them onthe basis of peculiar logics. Second, the interaction betweensuch projects has material effects on spatial and institutionalpractices of migration and assistance. Third, these materialeffects have different significance for refugees, since eachof them is differently encompassed by such projects. The articleconcludes by highlighting how such a framework can be used toassess power relations and challenge de-politicized narrativesof refugee protection and assistance.     

俄罗斯与阿富汗问题

在美国准备从阿富汗撤军的情况下,俄罗斯在阿富汗问题上的作用重新受到重视.从2009年以来,俄罗斯在阿富汗问题上明显趋于积极,有评论称之为俄罗斯重返阿富汗.事实上,除了1989年后的一个短暂时期,俄罗斯从未真正远离过阿富汗,或者说阿富汗从未在它的外交视线中消失,只是它的作用和影响被削弱了.本文拟就俄罗斯与阿富汗问题进行分析,主要探讨三个问题:一是俄罗斯与阿富汗关系的现状,二是俄罗斯在阿富汗的利益和政策,三是俄罗斯与美国在阿富汗问题上的关系.     

阿富汗问题与中国的关联

阿富汗问题不仅指阿富汗自身所面临的一系列问题,还包括这一系列问题的地区性、世界性影响。阿富汗问题不仅仅关乎中阿关系、中美关系,更关系到中国的地区战略、外交战略、安全战略等。因此,对阿政策的调整必须慎之又慎。中国应该坚持已有的做法,即在参与面上有所保留,有所为,有所不为。在当前形势下,中国应继续坚持在阿安全重建问题上有限参与,但应扩大在阿政治、经济、文化、教育重建等方面的参与。     

Preemption, Unilateralism, and Hegemony: The American Tradition?

Historian John Lewis Gaddis has found precedent for the current war on terror in early American history, arguing that the British burning of the capitol in 1814 had an impact on defense policy similar to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, leading to an emphasis on preemption. In basic respects, Gaddis restates the consensus among diplomatic historians that the early republic's foreign policy focused on preemption, unilateralism, and hegemony. But these depictions of early American diplomacy conflate separate eras and ignore an opposing tradition that was more moderate and principled. They are not without some truth, but their imperious sway in histories of our country needs to be checked and balanced.     

阿富汗问题与上海合作组织

阿富汗问题是影响欧亚大陆国际战略以及地区安全格局的一个焦点问题,也始终是上海合作组织客观上难以回避的一个重大现实问题。近年来,美国奥巴马政府的阿富汗战略展开重大调整,但阿富汗局势及其对中亚安全形势的影响再趋严峻,上海合作组织对阿富汗问题的政策和作为也日益凸显出其重要性和迫切性。上海合作组织必须推出与时俱进的阿富汗问题新战略。上海合作组织在阿富汗问题上的政策取向主要从改善安全环境、推进政治和解、参与经济和社会重建、加强国际合作四方面入手。在阿富汗问题上上海合作组织可以有所作为,但要恰当定位,把握好度,循序渐进。     

泰国南部动乱的来龙去脉

泰国南部的沙墩、北大年、陶公、也拉、宋卡等5府为穆斯林聚居区,70％以上的居民具有马来血统,信奉伊斯兰教。泰南5府的分离主义运动由来已久。早在20世纪60—70年代,泰南穆斯林的分离势力就不断搞暴力活动,他们纵火、袭击火车、暗杀政府官员、警察及佛教徒,在公共场所放置炸弹     

美国单边主义:传统、历史与现实的透视

单边主义是国家对外政策行为方式之一,曾因布什政府在其外交实践中的身体力行而一度备受国际关系学界的关注.实际上,单边主义并不仅仅是布什政府的时兴之作,美国对外政策的孤立主义思想传统、杰克逊主义历史先例以及当前单极世界体制的现实均与其有着某种内在的因果关系,这决定了它在冷战后美国外交中地位的日益凸显.在思想传统、历史先例和单极体制的综合影响下,单边主义有可能成为日后美国对外政策行为的常态.     

美国在阿富汗战争中的收获与教训

虽然阿富汗战争使美国在政治、经济等方面都获益,但美依靠武力、以暴制暴的战争手段无法从根本上真正铲除恐怖主义,同时又给自己带来一系列难以消除的负面影响.     

Argentina's Turmoil: The Politics of Informality and the Roots of Economic Meltdown

This article argues that Argentina's current economic crisis cannot be fully understood without an analysis of recent political processes. It defines the politics of informality that have characterised Argentina's democracy-building processes. This de-institutionalisation of politics was perceived as the facilitator of democratic consolidation, state reform and economic restructuring. In practice, the politics of informality contributed to the crisis of 2001. The article begins by analysing the scale of the political and economic crisis from 1999. It is followed by an analysis of the politics of informality implemented by the Raúl Alfonsín and Carlos Menem's governments and then goes on to explain the consequences of informal politics. Finally, it concludes by outlining the main factors that conspire against democracy and economic stability in Argentina.     

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Afghan Issue

Afghanistan is not a member country of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO）, nor an observer country of it. However, Afghanistan has special relations with the SCO. In the whole history of the SCO, the Afghan issue has never been missed on SCO＇s radar. This is mainly because Afghanistan is closely related to the security of the region and remains deeply entangled with the various security issues in Central Asia,     

叙利亚动荡的特殊性及其未来走势

2011年以来,中东地区爆发前所未有的大规模动荡和变革。随着时间推移,突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、也门等国相继从“革命”阶段进入“后革命”的重建、调整、震荡期。但叙利亚危机“高烧不退”,乱象四起。自阿拉伯国家联盟从叙利亚撤出观察团后,叙局势继续恶化,逐渐演变为阿拉伯大变局中的特殊个案。本文试图对叙危机特殊性及其危而不倒的原因进行初步剖析,为预测叙未来政局走势打下基础。     

越南苗族骚乱：原因与启示

越南作为社会主义国家,一直面临着西方国家在意识形态领域的挑战。近年来,伴随着国际形势的复杂变化,越南国内出现了一系列新的矛盾和问题,各种敌对势力针对越南的“和平演变”不断深入,更加多样。在意识形态领域反对“和平演变”与“自我演变”,巩固越共执政地位,是当前越共提出的重点思想建设工作。在众多问题中,越南国内外反政府势力一直利用宗教和民族问题,进行宣传和煽动反共与反政府活动。越南政府对此始终保持高度警惕,制定了比较符合国情的民族政策,保持了民族团结的有利局面,有效防止了敌对势力利用这一问题大做文章。     

中东动荡对巴以问题的影响及前景展望

2011年以来的中东动荡对巴以问题具有深远影响。从近期看,虽然巴以问题在中东地区的外交议程上位置后移,但是巴勒斯坦、以色列的战略生存环境均在发生重大变化,双方的内部政治生态也有新的演变。巴以之间不仅围绕定居点、边界、耶路撒冷地位、难民回归等核心议题的立场悬殊,还在以色列国家属性、巴勒斯坦非军事化等其他争议问题上较量不休。从中长期看,随着中东地区新的阿拉伯政权的诞生和步入施政阶段,巴勒斯坦问题有可能重新升温,恢复其作为中东地区核心问题的本来面貌,并成为地区国家之间进行竞争博弈的重要外交舞台。然而,由于导致巴以和谈停滞的阻碍因素继续存在,巴以重启和谈的希望仍然渺茫。     

美国阿富汗新战略中的印度和巴基斯坦因素

在美国的阿富汗新战略中,印度和巴基斯坦占有重要位置,如何发挥印度和巴基斯坦在解决阿富汗问题中的作用,不仅对奥巴马政府稳定阿富汗局势,而且对美国撤出阿之后的局势至关重要。     

Tools for Anticipating Asylum Denials: An Application to Afghan Refugees in Pakistan, 1997-2001

The growing tendency toward non-compliance with internationalobligations to refugees requires UNHCR to make contingency plansfor asylum denials. Making such plans calls for tools, suchas game theory and confrontation analysis, that link non-compliancein refugee asylum with the configuration of interests for asylumand donor countries in a potential crisis. We illustrate suchtools in a case study of Afghan refugees in Pakistan in 1997–2001,which generated asylum denials by Pakistan ranging from briefborder closings to threats of mass refoulement, linked to thewithholding of assistance by the United States and other donors.We also consider the prospects for using these tools to informcontingency planning for an impending crisis.