From War to Prison: Examining the Relationship Between Military Service and Criminal Activity

In February of 2008 the New York Times ran a series—War Torn—on Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans and their adjustment to civilian life upon return from the war zone. The authors assessed the criminal involvement of veterans by using newspaper accounts and other open source data to identify homicides in which the offender was an Afghanistan or Iraq war veteran. This particular aspect of the series drew a great deal of criticism, in part because of disagreements about the wisdom of the wars, but also because the sources of data used were perceived as less than systematic and accurate. This series and the debate that it engendered raised once again to prominence the issue of whether veterans are disproportionately involved in crime upon their return from service and specifically from combat assignments. The series also raised the question of whether media accounts of violent behavior by returning combat veterans are simply anecdotal or if they portend a more system-wide problem. This paper uses data from the Surveys of Inmates of State and Federal Correctional Facilities and the Current Population Surveys from 1985 to 2004 to estimate more systematically the prevalence and nature of the offending by military veterans in civilian society. The study seeks to avoid some of the methodological weaknesses of earlier studies that examined the criminal behavior of returning veterans. Specifically, the research considers whether criminal behavior, as reflected in the likelihood of imprisonment, is affected by military service, era of service, or service during wartime after controlling for social and demographic characteristics associated with offending. The findings indicate that military service in general is not predictive of incarceration when key demographic and social integration variables are taken into account. Service during wartime was found to be inversely related to subsequent incarceration, while veterans of the post-1973 All Volunteer Force were more likely to be incarcerated than were civilians and veterans who served during the draft era.     

Measuring the Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Police Proactivity

Objectives

To measure where officers engage in proactive, self-initiated activities, how much time they spend being proactive, and whether their proactive activities coincide with crime patterns.

Methods

This study uses Andresen’s Spatial Point Pattern Test to compare the spatial similarity between police proactivity and crime, as well as regression modeling to explore the relationship between proactivity and crime and the time spent on proactivity and crime.

Results

In the jurisdiction examined, high levels of proactivity are noted. This proactive activity is more likely to occur in places where crime is most concentrated. Additionally, the number of proactive calls and the proactive time spent per crime-and-disorder call remain high and stable across spatial scales. For each crime call received at a street block, police initiated 0.7 proactive activities and spent approximately 28 min carrying out proactive works.

Conclusions

This study develops a way of measuring proactive activity by patrol officers using calls for service data. We find that not only do officers in this jurisdiction exhibit higher levels of proactivity to prevent crime (compared to reacting to crime), but they also do so in targeted, micro-place ways. Agencies may consider using similar techniques to gauge the levels of proactivity in their agencies if proactive activity is a goal.

     

Organised crime,occupations and opportunity

This paper elaborates upon occupations, work relations, work settings, and their connection with organised crime activities. The analysis is based upon data from 120 case studies from the Dutch Organised Crime Monitor, involving 1623 suspects. The paper describes the different kinds of occupations encountered in cases of organised crime and the main characteristics of these occupations. Furthermore, the paper describes in more detail four cases of organised crime that illustrate the embeddedness of certain organised crime activities in work relations and work settings. Following Mars,1 ^?1. Gerald Mars, Cheats at Work: An Anthropology of Workplace Crime (London: Unwin Paperbacks, 1982). the paper analyses both the grid dimension and the group dimension of certain occupations and work settings. The paper concludes that social relations as well as settings and opportunity structures provide structure to the organisation of many forms of crime, including organised crime.     

Race, Space, and Violence: Exploring Spatial Dependence in Structural Covariates of White and Black Violent Crime in US Counties

Objectives

To join the literature on spatial analysis with research testing the racial invariance hypothesis by examining the extent to which claims of racial invariance are sensitive to the spatial dynamics of community structure and crime.

Methods

Using 1999?C2001 county-level arrest data, we employ seemingly unrelated regression models, spatial lag models, and geographically weighted regression analyses to (1) compare the extent of racial similarity/difference across these different modeling procedures, (2) evaluate the impact of spatial dependence on violent crime across racial groups, and (3) explore spatial heterogeneity in associations between macro-structural characteristics and violent crime.

Results

Results indicate that spatial processes matter, that they are more strongly associated with white than black violent crime, and that accounting for space does not significantly attenuate race-group differences in the relationship between structural characteristics (e.g., structural disadvantage) and violent crime. Additionally, we find evidence of significant variation across space in the relationships between county characteristics and white and black violent crime, suggesting that conclusions of racial invariance/variation are sensitive to where one is looking. These results are robust to different specifications of the dependent variable as well as different units of analysis.

Conclusions

Our study suggests the racial invariance debate is not yet settled. More importantly, our study has revealed an additional level of complexity??race specific patterns of spatially heterogeneous effects??that future research on social structure and racial differences in violence should incorporate both empirically and theoretically.     

The Structure of Citizen Perceptions of Crime and Disorder: New Insights from a Caribbean Community

Objectives

This study builds on existing research from US cities on the construct and discriminant validity of perceptual measures of crime and disorder. It seeks to determine whether citizens distinguish between crime and disorder.

Methods

This study draws on quantitative and qualitative data from a high-crime community in Trinidad and Tobago, a small-island developing nation in the eastern Caribbean. Analysis of the quantitative data relies on exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis methods designed for use with categorical observed variables and continuous latent variables.

Results

In contrast to previous research, we find that citizens do distinguish between physical disorder and general crime, but there is a perceptual overlap for some drug-related offenses and types of social disorder.

Conclusions

This study raises questions about the external validity of research on the relationship between perceptions of crime and disorder conducted in the US, and contributes to ongoing discussions and debates about the meaning of disorder. The findings suggest the need for theory and research to explain how context shapes not only the magnitudes of these perceptions, but also their structures. The results also demonstrate the benefits of mixed-methods research approaches in this area of study.

     

The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

Big Investment Fraud and “Yakuza Money” Crime — Two Perspectives of Financial Crime in Japan

Financial crime in Japan takes a major toll on both individual victims and the nation’s economy. This paper focuses on large investment frauds that have occurred from post-war Japan to the present as well as financial crimes that involve racketeers of boryokudans, or organized crime groups, more commonly known as yakuza. Major financial offending by organized crime groups include: yamikin (loan sharks), sokaiya (shareholders who extort corporate funds), jiageya (“land sharks” who frighten tenants into vacating properties), and new forms of yakuza money crime that constitute significant challenges to enforcement. The paper concludes that more comprehensive legislation that applies to all forms of investment fraud is needed in order to stem the tide of white-collar crime in Japanese society.     

Conclusions from the history of research into the effects of police force size on crime—1968 through 2013: a historical systematic review

Objectives

We describe and explain how the findings from nonexperimental studies of the relationship between police force size and crime have changed over time.

Methods

We conduct a systematic review of 62 studies and 229 findings of police force size and crime, from 1971 through 2013. Only studies of U.S. policing and containing standard errors of estimates were included. Using the robust variance estimation technique for meta-analysis, we show the history of study findings and effect sizes. We look at the influence of statistical methods and units of analysis, and time period of studies’ data, as well as variation in police force size over time.

Results

Findings vary considerably over time. However, compared to research standards and in comparison to effect sizes calculated for police practices in other meta-analyses, the overall effect size for police force size on crime is negative, small, and not statistically significant. Changes in research methods and units of analysis cannot account for fluctuations in findings. Finally, there is extremely little variation in police force size per capita over time, making it difficult to estimate the relationship with reliability.

Conclusions

This line of research has exhausted its utility. Changing policing strategy is likely to have a greater impact on crime than adding more police.

     

Crime and Imprisonment Trends: An Analysis by Individual Crime-Types

This research was done while the author was visiting the Max-Planck-Institut, Freiburg, West Germany. Thanks are due to the Humboldt Foundation for a Fellowship, and to Baruch College for a Scholar Incentive leave of absence that made this research possible.

In this paper, the relationship between crime and imprisonment rates is explored in more detail by examining the rates for individual crime types. Given the observation that aggregate crime rates have increased far more rapidly than imprisonment rates in many countries, the possible existence of an adaptive mechanism is explored, where the imprisonment rates increase with the crime rates for serious offenses but not for minor offenses. Analysis of data from West Germany appears to support such a hypothesis.     

The Scary World of Online News? Internet News Exposure and Public Attitudes Toward Crime and Justice

Objectives

A substantial body of literature indicates that certain forms of media consumption may increase anxiety about crime and support for social controls. However, few studies have examined whether Internet news consumption is positively associated with such attitudes. The void is significant given the public’s increasing use of online news sources. This study addresses this research gap.

Methods

We draw on data from four national surveys conducted between 2007 and 2013, which collectively include interviews with more than 13,000 Americans. Using OLS and logistic regression, we assess the relationships between exposure to traditional and online media and perceptions of victimization risk, support for punitive crime policies, and views about police powers.

Results

Consistent with prior work, we find positive relationships between exposure to traditional forms of media—television news and crime programming—and anxiety about victimization and support for harsh crime policies. In contrast, Internet news exposure is generally not associated with anxieties about crime or support for getting tough on criminals. However, there is evidence of an interactive relationship between political ideology and Internet news exposure.

Conclusions

The results provide little support for cultivation theory in the context of Internet news consumption. We discuss the import of our findings, and suggest new lines of research to explore the correlates and the effects of exposure to online news sources.

     

Offenders’ uncoerced false confessions: A new application of statement analysis?

Purpose. Deception detection research has mainly studied denials and distortions given by students. This study examined true and false confessions as told by offenders. It was hypothesized that the statement analytic techniques Criteria‐Based Content Analysis (CBCA) and Reality Monitoring (RM) would discriminate truths and lies. Methods. Truthful and deceptive confessions to crime were given by 30 offenders (both women and men) in a within‐subject design. The participants were in prison at the time of data collection, and told the truth about a crime they had committed and been sentenced for. In addition, they made up a lie about a different crime after a few minutes of preparation. The transcribed statements were scored for CBCA and RM criteria. Results. Results showed that neither total CBCA nor total RM scores differentiated between lies and truths. Some individual CBCA criteria, however, showed differences: more self‐deprecations and doubts about own testimony in the told lies, and more unexpected complications in the truths. Conclusions. The results are discussed in relation to statement analysis of offenders’ accounts, individual CBCA criteria, as well as the development of criminal experience and familiarity with the event and setting. Implications for triers of fact and suggestions for future research are considered.     

Predictive Crime Mapping: Arbitrary Grids or Street Networks?

Objectives

Decades of empirical research demonstrate that crime is concentrated at a range of spatial scales, including street segments. Further, the degree of clustering at particular geographic units remains noticeably stable and consistent; a finding that Weisburd (Criminology 53:133–157, 2015) has recently termed the ‘law of crime concentration at places’. Such findings suggest that the future locations of crime should—to some extent at least—be predictable. To date, methods of forecasting where crime is most likely to next occur have focused either on area-level or grid-based predictions. No studies of which we are aware have developed and tested the accuracy of methods for predicting the future risk of crime at the street segment level. This is surprising given that it is at this level of place that many crimes are committed and policing resources are deployed.

Methods

Using data for property crimes for a large UK metropolitan police force area, we introduce and calibrate a network-based version of prospective crime mapping [e.g. Bowers et al. (Br J Criminol 44:641–658, 2004)], and compare its performance against grid-based alternatives. We also examine how measures of predictive accuracy can be translated to the network context, and show how differences in performance between the two cases can be quantified and tested.

Results

Findings demonstrate that the calibrated network-based model substantially outperforms a grid-based alternative in terms of predictive accuracy, with, for example, approximately 20 % more crime identified at a coverage level of 5 %. The improvement in accuracy is highly statistically significant at all coverage levels tested (from 1 to 10 %).

Conclusions

This study suggests that, for property crime at least, network-based methods of crime forecasting are likely to outperform grid-based alternatives, and hence should be used in operational policing. More sophisticated variations of the model tested are possible and should be developed and tested in future research.

     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

An Examination of the Influence of Veteran Status on Offense Type Among an Inmate Sample

The current study examines the relationship between military service and criminal behavior of veterans, both combat and non-combat, compared to non-veterans using a nationally representative sample of inmates. Specifically, this study examines the relationship between veteran status and crime type among inmates in state and federal institutions. While the relationship between military service and criminal behavior of veterans has received considerable attention, many have failed to differentiate between veterans who have seen combat versus those who have not. Therefore, a subsample of veterans who experienced combat during their military service is examined to better inform our understanding how combat experience might influence this relationship. Multiple counterfactual methods, including propensity score matching, were used on data from the Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities, 2004. Some significant differences exist in the types of offenses committed based on veteran status and combat experience, but in some cases contrary to expectations. Veterans were more likely to have committed a violent offense, but less likely to have committed drug offenses; whereas, combat veterans were more likely to commit a drug offense and less likely to commit a violent offense than non-combat veterans. Policy implications and recommendations for future research are explored.     

The Age Structure-Crime Rate Relationship: Solving a Long-Standing Puzzle

Objectives

Develop the concept of differential institutional engagement and test its ability to explain discrepant findings regarding the relationship between the age structure and homicide rates across ecological studies of crime. We hypothesize that differential degrees of institutional engagement—youths with ties to mainstream social institutions such as school, work or the military on one end of the spectrum and youths without such bonds on the other end—account for the direction of the relationship between homicide rates and age structure (high crime prone ages, such as 15–29).

Methods

Cross sectional, Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses using robust standard errors are conducted using large samples of cities characterized by varying degrees of youths’ differential institutional engagement for the years 1980, 1990 and 2000. The concept is operationalized with the percent of the population enrolled in college and the percent of 16–19 year olds who are simultaneously not enrolled in school, not in the labor market (not in the labor force or unemployed), and not in the military.

Results

Consistent and invariant results emerged. Positive effects of age structure on homicide rates are found in cities that have high percentages of disengaged youth and negative effects are found among cities characterized with high percentages of youth participating in mainstream social institutions.

Conclusions

This conceptualization of differential institutional engagement explains the discrepant findings in prior studies, and the findings demonstrate the influence of these contextual effects and the nature of the age structure-crime relationship.     

Does Eligibility for Tertiary Education Affect Crime Rates? Quasi-Experimental Evidence

Objectives

This paper estimates the effect of tertiary education eligibility on crime in Sweden. The hypothesis tested is that continuing to higher education decreases crime rates since it allows young people to escape inactivity and idleness, which are known to trigger crime. However, to qualify for tertiary education, individuals have to meet the eligibility requirements in upper-secondary school. Tertiary education eligibility may therefore affect crime rates.

Methods

This paper uses a panel data set of 287 Swedish municipalities over the period 1998–2010 to estimate the tertiary education eligibility effect on crime. However, estimating educational effects on crime is challenging, because investment in education is an endogenous decision. In Sweden, substantial grade inflation, increased tertiary education eligibility by more than 6% points between 1998 and 2003. Thus, since the eligibility increase is exogenous to the educational achievements of a student cohort, i.e. not accompanied by a corresponding knowledge increase, we can use the increase to identify the effect of tertiary education eligibility on crime.

Results

It is found that increasing the tertiary education eligibility rate decreases both property and violent crime substantially.

Conclusions

The results show that when young people have the opportunity to attend tertiary education, and thus escape unemployment or inactivity, their propensity to commit crime decreases.

     

Posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity and fear of personal crime: exploring their interrelationship as a function of risk estimation

Both trauma psychology and criminology have studied the psychological correlates of crime victimization. While the former discipline has primarily focused on the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among crime victims, the latter has particularly studied the association between history of victimization and fear of crime. A major difference between both concepts is that PTSD is experienced in relation to previous victimization, while fear of crime does not necessarily follow from previous victimization and is primarily experienced in anticipation of possible future victimization. Despite their different orientations, both perspectives share one central tenet: they both argue that feelings of anxiety are accompanied by increased perceptions of risk for future victimization. Given this theoretical overlap, both types of anxiety may correlate with each other. The current study explored this topic in a sample of Dutch university students (N = 375) and found that PTSD symptom severity and fear of crime were significantly associated with each other, both in univariate and multivariate analyses. This association was stronger for participants who scored higher on perceived risk of personal crime victimization than for those who scored lower. Results were discussed in light of study limitations and directions for future research.     

The Law of Crime Concentration: An Application and Recommendations for Future Research

Objective

We address four outstanding empirical questions related to the “law of crime concentration” (Weisburd in Criminology 53:133–157, 2015): (1) Is the spatial concentration of crime stable over time? (2) Do the same places consistently rank among those with the highest crime counts? (3) How much crime concentration would be observed if crimes were distributed randomly over place? (4) To what degree does the spatial concentration of crime depend on places that are crime free?

Methods

The data are annual counts of violent and property crimes in St. Louis between 2000 and 2014. Temporal stability in the spatial inequality of crime is measured by computing the fraction of crimes that occur in the 5% of street segments with the highest crime frequencies each year. The spatial mobility of crime is measured by computing the number of years each street segment appears in the top 5% of street segments. Poisson simulations are used to estimate the fraction of crimes that could appear in the top 5% of street segments on the basis of chance alone. The impact of crime-free locales on the spatial concentration of crime is evaluated by comparing results from analyses that include and exclude crime-free street segments from the crime distributions.

Results

The concentration of crime is highly unequal and stable over time. The specific street segments with the highest crime frequencies, however, change over time. Nontrivial fractions of street segments may appear among the 5% with the highest crime frequencies on the basis of chance. Spatial concentration of crime is reduced when crime-free street segments are excluded from the crime distributions.

Conclusions

The law of crime concentration is not a measurement artifact. Its substantive significance, however, should be assessed in future longitudinal research that replicates the current study across diverse social settings.