俄美关系的走向及其影响（英文）

With structural contradictions between the two countries unresolved and new problems constantly emerging, the already strained US-Russia relations are expected to remain confrontational during Biden's term in office. With Biden in power, opportunities are rare and challenges manifold when it comes to improving US-Russia ties, while the Russian government will respond with a dual approach of countermeasures and cooperation.     

叙利亚危机与中东格局演变

中东巨变是新时期地区国家在现代化进程中,因应内外形势变化做出的一种应激性、被动式抗争,属于伊斯兰复兴运动范畴。囿于综合发展现状,中东将经历长期的政治动荡、社会分裂、国家转型,民主化也必然体现程度不同的伊斯兰特征。叙利亚成为当前中东巨变"暴风眼",相关势力于此博弈角逐,体现出背后复杂的地缘战略争夺,西亚北非地区动荡进入新阶段。叙利亚危机持续发酵并不断扩散,中东陷入更深漩涡,地区格局出现结构性变化。     

角逐与合作并存的俄美关系

俄美两国经历了多年的相互争斗与妥协、磨合与容忍,终于形成双方合作面扩大、关系相对稳定化和实用化的局面。今后双方在全球层面上的影响力争夺和地缘政治、经济利益上争夺的战略性矛盾依然突出,但战略合作势在必行,不会形成以对抗为主流的“新冷战”。     

库尔德问题与中东局势（英文）

The Kurdish issue in the Middle East reflects the complex regional ethnic conflicts. The Kurdish independence movement has grown stronger in recent years and it is now an important factor driving the geopolitical evolution of the Middle East, which has been manipulated by both external and regional powers.     

认知冲突与美俄地缘政治角逐

苏联解体并没有使美俄从此握手言和,相反,两国在经历了短暂的蜜月期后,在原苏东地区地缘政治安排上的矛盾逐渐暴露出来,并随着北约新一轮扩大和美国在东欧部署反导系统几近激化.美俄地缘角逐与其相互认知冲突有着密切的联系.美国通常将俄罗斯视为一个被打败的对手,要求其接受美对其国际地位的界定和内外政策的"指导",如有违反即被视为需要加以抵制的集权倾向或帝国企图.为了遏制由此可能带来的挑战,并推动俄罗斯向美期望的方向演变.美国不断削弱俄赖以对抗的资本.在俄罗斯看来,对西方的拥抱和战略上的妥协并没有换来预期的西方认同及其对俄安全空间的尊重,美反而在战略上向俄步步进逼.美俄在这种相互认知下的政策选择将在很大程度上影响美俄地缘政治角逐的具体进程.     

美俄关系新发展与中国的政策选择（英文）

Instead of achieving a restart,the US-Russia relationship has fallen to freezing point under the Trump administration.The bilateral structural conflicts,with profound historical logic and realistic roots,have expanded from geopolitics and strategic balance to domestic politics and values.For a long time to come,limited opponentswill become thenew normalof US-Russia relations.     

"颜色革命"与美俄角逐独联体

自2003年底到2005年以来,“颜色革命”像多米诺骨牌一样在独联体地区延伸。格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦政权在“玫瑰革命”、“橙色革命”、“郁金香革命”中相继更迭。美国及其他西方大国继上个世纪和平演变并西化苏联和东欧后,对转型中的前苏联国家展开了新一轮的“民主”攻势,试图通过“再西化”进程分化独联体,孤立和遏制俄罗斯。遍地燃烧的“颜色革命”,加剧了美俄在独联体地区的争夺,加速了独联体走向分化。     

中东格局新特征与秩序演变新方向

近期中东地区一方面延续战乱频仍、局势动荡的主基调,叙利亚继续在内战漩涡中挣扎,巴以战火旷日持久已成常态,美俄针对地缘势力范围角逐依旧激烈,多个热点地区仍能看到沙特和伊朗反复争夺、酣战激斗的身影。另一方面中东局势又呈现出一些新特点:美土矛盾骤然升级、伊朗核协议停摆推高美伊对抗强度、走向平稳的伊拉克乱局潜存再度复发的风险。这些新老热点问题的叠加联动,促使地区政治秩序和利益格局反复重组,域内外各方势力的博弈角力,又将对大国关系定位、国际体系秩序演变和地区战略格局的前景走势产生重大而深远的影响。     

美俄中东能源战略比较分析

"谁拥有中东石油,谁就拥有世界".世界第一能源消费大国--美国,与持"能源牌"重返中东的俄罗斯战略相遇.美俄两国中东能源战略中存有异同,在利益上也存有共识与矛盾.本文通过对两国中东能源战略及政策进行比较,旨在对中国参与中东的能源角逐提供思考和借鉴.     

俄日关系的进展与限度（英文）

Japan and Russia have promoted bilateral relations through summit diplomacy during the Abe era, but many limits remain in developing the relationship under the appearance of close ties. Looking to the future, while the relations may be drifting toward conflicts without the settlement of the territorial issue or the guarantee of a peace treaty, decoupling is unlikely due to the two countries' political will and realistic interests to deepen bilateral relations.     

中东地区的安全问题与安全治理（英文）

Middle East security has become a prominent global issue which is constantly exacerbating the uncertainty of the region and the world. Establishing a stable and valid security governance system is imperative for the region, but is bound to be a long and arduous process through internal and external coordination and appropriate strategies.     

国际格局变化与中国外交战略（英文）

In a world undergoing extremely complicated and profound changes, it is now ever more important to make an objective and comprehensive assessment of the international state of affairs, understand China's international position and formulate overall strategic and realizable goals for China's diplomacy.     

美俄核威慑的演变及趋势

冷战时期，随着核武器的不断增加，美苏两国对核武器和核威慑的依赖程度则不断下降，从最大程度的依赖到较大程度的依赖，然后再到较小程度的依赖。冷战后，美俄核威慑战略所针对的对象、目标发生了变化，所依靠的核力量结构发生了变化，核力量对比的态势也发生了变化。在今后２０年内，有核国家将仍然坚持和十分重视核威慑战略，最终彻底消除核武器和实现“无核世界”的愿望及趋势，仍显得比较艰难和遥远。     

俄罗斯中东战略:特点、背景与前景（英文）

正At the end of the first decade of the 21st century,changes took place in the international strategic landscape,with the ability of the West to dominate world affairs widely questioned in the wake of the global financial crisis.And following the series of regime changes that the United States and some European countries pushed in the name ofrevolutionsin the Middle East,North Africa and members of the former     

俄白哈关税同盟的发展及其影响（英文）

In recent years, the Eurasian Economic Community has developed rapidly. Because of the special relationship between the SCO and the Customs Because Customs Union, the latter will inevitably exert some influence on the development of the former, but they are not fundamentally contradictory. Since the of the establishment of the Customs Union, the trade between China and the Customs Union members grows steadily.     

欧盟与美俄中关系的演变与发展

20 0 1年欧盟与世界主要大国的关系均发生了重要变化和发展。“9·11事件”后 ,对不安全因素全球化的感知强化了欧美维持大西洋联盟的意识 ,矛盾得到缓解 ,大西洋联盟的凝聚力上升。但在中长期内欧美既合作又竞争的总体态势不会改变。“9·11事件”后俄罗斯与美国的迅速接近使欧俄关系有些“暗然失色” ,但这仅是表面现象 ,影响欧俄关系的基本因素没有改变。欧盟在俄对外战略中与美国占有同等甚至优先的位置。欧盟对华政策仍坚持以合作和对话为主。欧中之间不断扩大的经济、政治和战略利益为双方保持长期稳定的合作关系奠定了良好的基础。     

中亚外高形势衍变中的中东因素（英文）

Central Asia and Transcaucasia is one of the world's major Muslim-populated areas and is closely connected to the Middle East. Three major forces from the Middle East are actively seeking influence in the region:Iran,Turkey,and Islamic extremists represented by the Islamic State.     

俄土伊组合的作用及前景（英文）

The Russia-Turkey-Iran coalition has been the most prominent development in the Middle East since the upheavals across West Asia and North Africa in 2011. Though not explicitly targeting the US, it has hindered Washington's strategy of controlling the Middle East and undermining Russia's influence in Eurasia, and also caused troubles to US allies in the region.     

美欧气候变化政策差异与合作前景（英文）

As the Biden administration actively rectifies Trump's climate policy, climate cooperation and coordination between the US and the EU is expected to witness significant progress. Although the convergence of transatlantic climate policies will have a positive impact on global climate governance, but with their fundamental dispute over policy orientation left intact, interaction between the two sides can still be plagued by their respective domestic politics and different economic interests.     

中东地缘政治格局演变及对我国能源安全影响

中东地区长期是世界能源地缘政治的焦点地区。当前中东地缘政治格局仍处于深刻变动进程中,具体表现在域内外大国间的影响力对比变化及各种力量的分化组合。中东地缘政治格局演变将对我国的能源安全产生重要影响。在国际能源价格方面,短期内中东地缘政治冲突导致石油供应大幅减少的可能性较低,页岩油产量增加也可抵消有可能出现的中东石油供应量下降,基本不会出现油价大幅上涨的情况。中期或许会出现页岩油增加的供应量无法抵消地缘政治冲突导致的中东常规石油减少的供应量之状况,引发国际油价较大幅度上涨。在国际能源投资方面,中东地缘政治格局演变导致多国进一步开放油气领域的外部投资限制。我国应抓住机遇扩大在中东油气上游的投资规模,同时科学评估中东地缘政治冲突,合理布局能源投资以规避风险。