The role of broken homes in the development of self-control: A propensity score matching approach

Criminologists have frequently identified broken homes as a risk factor for involvement in crime and delinquency. The association between broken homes and antisocial behavior has been replicated in numerous studies, and despite being entrenched within the study of delinquency, there is a lack of research examining its impact on the development of self-control. This is somewhat surprising given that low self-control has been shown to be a robust and consistent predictor of antisocial behavior. We address this void in the literature by examining the role of broken homes in the development of self-control in early childhood using propensity score matching. Analysis of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study revealed a statistically significant association between broken homes and the development of self-control prior to matching. After matching on six key maternal and paternal covariates, the association between broken homes and levels of self-control was no longer statistically significant. We discuss what these findings mean for criminological theories.     

Assessing the effect of batterer program completion on reassault using propensity scores

Recent experimental evaluations have suggested little or no effect of batterer programs on reassault but are compromised by methodological and analytical issues. This study assesses program effect using propensity score analysis with a quasi-experimental sample in an attempt to address these issues. The sample consisted of 633 batterers and their partners from three geographically dispersed batterer programs and a 15-month follow-up with their female partners. Subclassification on propensity scores was used to balance program completers and program dropouts. The propensity score was estimated as the probability of completing the batterer program conditional on observable characteristics. Direct adjustment indicates that program completion reduced the probability of reassault during the 15-month follow-up by 33% for the full sample, and by nearly 50% for the court-ordered men.     

Unemployment,imprisonment, and the stability of punishment hypothesis: Some results using cointegration and error correction models

A version of the stability of punishment hypothesis is used to illustrate the concept of cointegration and its relationship to error correction models. The hypothesis is then tested and rejected using data from England and Wales. Finally, a dynamic time-series model relating imprisonment to convictions, crime, and Unemployment is developed and tested.The empirical results in this work are based upon those originally prepared for a paper to be given by the author and Steve Box at the meeting of the American Society of Criminology held in Montreal in November 1987. Steve Box died in September 1987 before it could be completed.The paper is dedicated to his memory and it is hoped that he would have approved its content, if not, perhaps, the dryness of its form.     

Why longer prison terms fail to serve a specific deterrent effect: an empirical assessment on the remembered severity of imprisonment

For a prison sentence to exert a specific deterrent effect, the ultimate question is that imprisonment is remembered as aversive once the offender is released, and is contemplating future criminal activities. Drawing on insights from social psychology and cognition, this study assessed (1) how inmates remember the severity of their imprisonment following release, and (2) how the severity as experienced while being incarcerated (e.g. the worst or the last moment) affects its recollected aversiveness among a sample of Dutch inmates who were released for approximately six months (n?=?696). The findings indicated that the severity as experienced while being incarcerated is strongly related to the severity as recollected following release, net of the duration of confinement. Strikingly, to the extent that the length of imprisonment affected its recollected aversiveness, it did so in the opposite direction than traditional deterrence research presumes. Implications for correctional policy and future research are discussed.     

Rational-choice gun use in armed robbery: The likely deterrent effect on gun use of mandatory additional imprisonment

Conclusion The Western Australian findings suggest that a sentencing policy targeted specifically at the use of guns in committing robbery could be effective in discouraging the choice of this weapon. The proposed sentence is a mandatory minimum period of twelve months for the first offense. Sentencing for the principal, or focal, offense of robbery would be governed by existing law. A second, or even later, gun-using offense should carry a greater mandatory additional sentence. At the same time, given the social and experiential factors that have brought offenders to the point of choosing a weapon and a modus operandi, any such policy must be applied humanely. Rational-choice theory does not deny that there may be unequal opportunities to exercise choice; it does, however, assert that decision making can be influenced by an appropriate sentencing strategy.The implementation of any such policy should be carefully evaluated both in aggregate studies, as has been done in Canada, and in individualized, rational-choice research. The evaluation should address not only the efficacy of the broad strategy but also the narrower question of whether the suggested mandatory sentences are optimal.Although this article has offered theoretical and statistical support that the proposed sentencing strategy is likely to reduce the incidence of gun use in robbery, some offenders may be discouraged from committing further robberies altogether, inasmuch as victim management in certain kinds of robbery may be sensibly attempted only through the use of a gun. Deterred from using guns, some offenders may look for a different career altogether, whether criminal or not.This article is based on a report entitledWeapon Choice by Violent Offenders in Western Australia: A Pilot Study, co-authored with Ann Blake. Copies are available free of charge from the Administrative Secretary, Crime Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, W.A. 6009, Australia.The original research for the report was funded by Grant No. 5 of 1988 by the Australian Criminology Research Council. These funds were supplemented by the Crime Research Centre of the University of Western Australia. This article was written while the author was on sabbatical leave at the Centre for Criminological Research, University of Oxford.L.L.B., University of London 1960; L.L.M., Columbia University 1962. I would like to express my thanks to Dr. Roger Hood, Director of the Center for Criminological Research, University of Oxford.     

Propensity score analysis: promise, reality and irrational exuberance

Objectives

The aim of this work is to examine the promise that propensity scores can yield accurate effect estimates in nonrandomized experiments, review research on the realities of the conditions needed to meet this promise, and caution against irrational exuberance about their capacity to meet this promise.

Methods

A review of selected experimental work that illustrates both the promise and realities of propensity score analysis.

Results

Propensity score analysis of nonrandomized experiments can yield the same results as randomized experiments. Those estimates depend on meeting the strong ignorability assumption that the available covariates well describe selection processes and on use of comparison groups that are from the same location with very similar focal characteristics. When those assumptions are not met, propensity scores may not yield accurate estimates.

Conclusions

The use of propensity score analysis has proliferated exponentially, especially in the last decade, but careful attention to its assumptions seems to be very rare in practice. Researchers and policymakers who rely on these extensive propensity score applications may be using evidence of largely unknown validity. All stakeholders should devote far more empirical attention to justifying that each study has met these assumptions.     

Understanding the place of punishment: Disadvantage,politics, and the geography of imprisonment in 21st century America

Studies suggest that the spatial distribution of punishment in the United States is shifting. This article analyzes variation in prison admissions across U.S. counties to deepen our understanding of the contemporary geography of punishment. While research on punishment generally treats economic and political theories of punishment as distinct, we draw on recent studies of penal attitudes to develop a theoretical argument regarding their possible interconnection. We then use Hierarchical Linear Modeling to test the hypothesis that conservatism, race, and disadvantage are associated with the use of prison and that these factors help to explain why prison admission rates are higher in rural and suburban counties than in urban ones, despite notably higher crime rates in the latter. The results indicate that nonurban counties send more people to prison than urban counties and that socioeconomic disadvantage, the size of the Black population, and conservatism are significant predictors of prison admissions after controlling for crime‐related problems. These findings suggest that poverty, race, and politics work in concert to shape the distribution of punishment across 21st century America.     

The effect of luminol on presumptive tests and DNA analysis using the polymerase chain reaction.

This study was designed to test the following factors involved with processing luminol treated bloodstained evidence: 1) The reactivity of other presumptive chemical color tests, phenolphthalin (PT) and tetramethylbenzidine (TMB), following the application of the light emitting luminol presumptive test. 2) The effect of different cleanings of various bloody substrates on the luminol test. 3) The effect of different cleanings of various bloody substrates on the ability to obtain DNA suitable for PCR testing. 4) The ability to extract DNA from luminol treated bloodstained substrates using three extraction techniques. 5) The effect of spraying washed and unwashed bloodstains on various substrates with luminol on the ability to correctly type the DNA using PCR. Our findings indicated that luminol did not adversely effect the PCR testing and did not interfere with the PT and TMB presumptive tests for blood. It was determined that the substrate and the method of cleaning were the major factors affecting DNA yield and the ability to type the bloodstains using PCR based technologies.     

The effect of weight on the femur: a cross-sectional analysis

This study assessed whether obesity significantly affects femoral shape. Femora of 121 white men were divided into two weight classes based on body mass index (BMI) of the deceased. Five external anteroposterior (AP) and mediolateral (ML) measurements were taken at consistent percentages of diaphyseal length. These were then subject to statistical tests. After controlling for age, multivariate statistics show a significant (p<0.05) effect of BMI on the femur, with the greatest significance in ML measurements. T-tests confirm these dimensions are significantly larger in the overweight (p<0.05). The effect of BMI on size-transformed and shape-transformed variables was also evaluated, with ANOVA results showing a significant BMI effect on ML size (p<0.05), but not shape. Significant size-transformed ML variables were then subject to discriminate function analyses with a cross-validation correction. Results show a correct classification rate of 88% in normal weight and 77% in overweight individuals.     

The strategic use of dismissal legislation: an empirical analysis using Spanish data

In this paper, we analyse empirically how the legal framework affects the relationship between labour market conditions and dismissals. We use a pseudo-panel of Spanish data from 1987 to 2001. We find that Labour Law reforms have effects on the use of individual and collective dismissals although such effects are much lower than those related to the business cycle. The results also show a strategic use of the different types of dismissals, distorting the work of those institutions involved in dismissals.      

The performance of university spin-offs: an exploratory analysis using venture capital data

University spin-offs are defined as firms founded by university employees. Using a large database on venture-backed start-up companies, I describe the characteristics of university spin-offs and investigate whether they perform differently than other firms. I find that venture-backed university spin-offs are concentrated in the biotechnology and information technology industries. Moreover, a spin-off tends to stay close to the university, suggesting that technology transfer through spin-offs is largely a local phenomenon. Multivariate regression analyses show that university spin-offs have a higher survival rate but are not significantly different from other start-ups in terms of the amount of venture capital raised, the probability of completing an initial public offering (IPO), the probability of making a profit, or the size of employment.

Comparing the effects of community service and short-term imprisonment on recidivism: a matched samples approach

This study uses longitudinal official record data on adult offenders in The Netherlands (n = 4,246) to compare recidivism after community service to that after short-term imprisonment. To account for possible bias due to selection of offenders into these types of sanctions, we control for a large set of confounding variables using a combined method of ‘matching by variable’ and ‘propensity score matching’. Our findings demonstrate that offenders recidivate significantly less after having performed community service compared to after having been imprisoned. This finding holds for both the short- and long-term. Furthermore, using the Rosenbaum bounds method, we show that the results are robust for hidden bias.     

The point break effect: an examination of surf,crime, and transitory opportunities

Opportunity theories of crime suggest that crime is highly specific and concentrated in time and space. Using these theories as a framework, this paper seeks to examine the transitory nature of crime. This hypothesis was tested using data from a coastal city in California to examine the relationship between surf conditions (measured at five daily time points) and number of crime incidents (n = 16,075). Crime totals were aggregated at the street segment level (n = 4551) for each day in 2011. These data were modeled using a series of panel negative binomial models, clustered by census block group. The findings suggest that surf conditions had an effect on the likelihood of crime incidents, but these effects were time specific. Favorable surf conditions were associated with increases in crime only between 2:30 pm and 5:29 pm. Additionally, locations closer to surf spots were associated with more crime, relative to locations farther away. Closer examination of micro-geographies aids in understanding how systematic shifts in routine activities affect the frequency and location of crime, and allows crime prevention to be more specialized and efficient. Adding to the extant understanding of hot times and opportunity structures will enable more effective allocation of resources and predictive policing efforts.     

Macro-economic determinants of penal policy: Estimating the unemployment and inflation influences on imprisonment rate changes in the United States, 1948–1985

Conflict theory proposes that systemic economic distress generates problem populations which require control via palliative and coercive means. Most previous research has concentrated on examining the unemployment-imprisonment relationship. A review of the literature suggests that other structural conditions that generate marginalization as well as the state's placative control must be considered in order to understand the linkage between economic-fiscal forces and penal policy. Using annual time-series data for the period 1948–1985, the present paper examines the extent to which changes in inprisonment rates reflect (a) governmental attempts to offset the threat of unemployment and inflation and (b) fiscal limitations placed by state expenditures on placative controls. The results indicate support for the conflict thesis, with inflation rates and annual fluctuations in black and white male unemployment rates exerting an independent positive effect upon imprisonment-rate changes, after controlling for variations in violent crime rates, prison capacity, and age structure. Possible reasons for the lack of evidence regarding trade-offs between state's placative and coercive policies are discussed and suggestions for further research are noted. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** AW502010 00003     

Discrimination of pencil markings on paper using elemental analysis: an initial investigation

The characterisation and comparison of pencil markings on paper is an area of questioned document analysis that has previously not received much attention. Despite this, there would be value in an examiner being able to analyse two pencil markings and coming to a conclusion about whether they were from a similar or different source. Previous studies have analysed raw materials and bulk pencil cores for purposes of characterisation and differentiation, but to date, no studies have successfully analysed pencil markings non-destructively off a paper substrate. In this work, pencils from a number of manufacturers were analysed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). Analysis of data using multivariate techniques (principal component analysis), showed that ToF-SIMS can successfully be used to analyse such pencil markings to deduce whether two markings can be differentiated, in terms of inorganic elemental composition. It was possible to discriminate between pencil markings from different manufacturers, and it was also indicated that pencils from the same manufacturer, but discrete batches, can be significantly different.     

Age estimation and the developing third molar tooth: an analysis of an Australian population using computed tomography

The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for age estimation of unknown age individuals in the late adolescent years. Computed tomography (CT) images were assessed in an Australian population aged from 15 to 25 years for development trends, particularly concerning age estimation at the child/adult transition point of 18 years. The CT images were also compared to conventional radiographs to assess the developmental scoring agreement between the two and it was found that agreement of Demirjian scores between the two imaging modalities was excellent. The relatively wide age ranges (mean ± 2SD) indicate that the third molar is not a precise tool for age estimation (age ranges of 3-8 years) but is, however, a useful tool for discriminating the adult/child transition age of 18 years. In the current study 100% of females and 96% of males with completed roots were over 18 years of age.     

Doctors, apologies, and the law: an analysis and critique of apology laws

This Article analyzes and critiques apology laws, their potential use, and effectiveness, both legally and ethically, in light of the strong professional norms that shape physicians' reaction to medical errors. Physicians are largely reluctant to disclose medical errors to patients, patients' families, and even other physicians. Some states have passed so-called apology laws in order to encourage physicians to disclose medical errors to patients. Apology laws allow defendants to exclude statements of sympathy made after accidents from evidence in a liability lawsuit. This Article examines potential barriers to physicians' disclosure of medical mistakes and demonstrates how the underlying problem may actually be rooted in professional norms-norms that will remain outside the scope of law's influence. The Article also considers other legal and policy changes that could help to encourage disclosure.     

The life conditions of Australian ex-prisoners: an analysis of intrapersonal, subsistence, and support conditions

Successful reintegration of ex-prisoners into the community is multifaceted. The life conditions of 36 adult Australian ex-prisoners (20 male and 16 female) were examined via a questionnaire administered at 1 to 4 weeks post release, and a subset of 19 of the original respondents were interviewed again at 3 to 4 months post release. Interviews focused on intrapersonal conditions (physical and psychological health and substance use), subsistence conditions (housing, employment, and finance), and support conditions (social support, support services/program participation, and criminal justice support). The majority of ex-prisoners self-reported chronic physical and mental health problems as well as a history of substance use and/or current substance use. Although the housing conditions of ex-prisoners were largely favourable and constant, the employment and financial conditions of this group were generally unfavourable. Level of social support was variable. Theoretical implications and practical applications of the present investigation for reintegration theory are discussed.     

The effect of community policing on fear and crime reduction,police legitimacy and job satisfaction: an empirical review of the evidence

Since the 1970s, community policing strategies or the language thereof have been purportedly initiated by a number of police departments nationwide to address notable issues such as crime, neighborhood disorder, and fear of crime. This policing philosophy has received considerable attention and support among scholars, police administrators, and criminal justice practitioners. This article synthesizes the available empirical evidence on the effectiveness of community policing initiatives using a variety of outcome measures. An overview of community policing is first provided with particular attention paid to its essence and objectives. Prior studies that have analyzed community policing effectiveness are then reviewed and assessed in terms of their methodological rigor and scientific merit. A discussion and future research considerations are presented to conclude.