Japan as America’s global partner: Problems and prospects

The concept of global partnership remains a central theme in the conduct of U.S.-Japan relations in the post-Cold War world. This article critically evaluates Japan’s performance and potential as a global partner for the United States. It notes the qualified outcomes to Japan’s extended quest for a world role, its inability to lead by example in world trade and its preference for international status and contributions as a substitute for international political leadership. On the other hand the article recognizes the increasing significance of Japan’s human contribution to international peacekeeping, its willingness to tackle global problems in cooperation with the United States, and its potential to reduce security costs in Asia by means of foreign aid allocations, increased host-nation support for American forces and by promoting regional security dialogue. The article highlights Japan’s emerging identity as an Asian power and the problem of diverging U.S. and Japanese perspectives on democracy in the region. At the same time, it acknowledges the crucial importance Japan attaches to the continued American military presence in Asia and its desire to insulate the U.S.-Japan security relationship from economic and trade friction. The article concludes with the observation that Japan’s ability and willingness to operate as a global partner of the United States is much greater in some areas than in others. She is the co-author ofThe Political Economy of Agricultural Protection in Northeast Asia: East Asia in International Perspective (Allen and Unwin, 1986).     

Japan's fiscal policy and the East Asian financial crisis

Japanese economic policy has been identified as one possible cause of the East Asian financial crisis that began in July 1997. In this article, Yoichi Okita, Professor of Economics at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, discusses Japan's role in the recovery of East Asian economies. Can and should Japan contribute to that recovery? To what extent is the recession in Japan an important cause of slow recovery in the region? Okita explores and develops the concept of economic policy coordination. Although changes in the Japanese economy were not the origin of the East Asian crisis, he says, prolonged stagnation in Japan is, nevertheless, a drag on the economies that are in trouble. However, one country's fiscal actions alone cannot solve the crisis; rather, all countries in the region should work together to redress the problem.     

Trilateral trade relations among China,Japan and South Korea: Challenges and prospects of regional economic integration

China’s emergence as a global and regional manufacturing center has significant implications for the Northeast Asian economies of Japan and South Korea. China's trade with Japan and South Korea has been rapidly growing in relative importance, largely facilitated by China's rise as a regional production base as well as changes in the trade structures between China and her neighbours. Indeed, in recent years, China has been the main driving force behind Northeast Asian trade interdependency. The strong economic linkages and complementarities among China, Japan and South Korea augur well for the further integration among the three Northeast Asian countries. Establishing a trilateral free trade arrangement (FTA) provide new opportunities to enhance the three countries’ overall growth potential through trade and investment. However, such Northeast Asian regional integration is destined to be a long, drawn out process. The forging of a trilateral trading arrangement between China and her two neighbours remain a long term vision in view of the many outstanding issues and obstacles.     

中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变化及其影响

东亚区域内贸易比重的迅速上升是现阶段东亚贸易发展的一个重要特征。中国和日本作为东亚区域内两个最大的经济体,两国在东亚区域内贸易中的地位和影响力的变动对相互之间的经济合作以及区域内经济合作模式的选择,具有十分重大的影响。本文在分析东亚区域内贸易发展现状的基础上,从中间产品和最终产品的贸易结构与贸易竞争压力的角度,分析了中日两国在东亚区域内贸易中地位的变动及其影响。     

APEC labour markets: Structural change and the Asian financial crisis

This study examines the impacts of longer-term structural changes on the labour markets of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies, as well as the short-run labour market consequences of the Asian financial crisis. All APEC economies have experienced significant structural change in the process of development. A major factor in this structural change has been increased trade intensity (increase in exports and imports as a share of GDP) that has occurred over the last 20 years. Because these structural changes have been extensively induced by trade liberalisation, this study provides insights into the likely consequences of the implementation of APEC's agenda on trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation. The impact of structural change is examined using a range of data, such as disaggregated changes in output and employment by industry and occupation over the period 1980 to 1997, and data on changes in trade intensity for each of the APEC nations. Other data, such as changes in rates of urbanization, are also used to indicate the other important concomitant effects of economic transformation. For several Asian economies, the linear path of growth and structural change was severely disrupted by the Asian financial crisis. This article examines the impact of this crisis on Asian labour markets, in general, and those most affected by the crisis, in particular. In many countries within the region, a failure of education and training systems to respond to often rapid shifts in the skill composition of labour demand is leading to industry and occupation specific labour shortages. International labour migration within the APEC region is viewed as a product of these structural changes and a mechanism that assists in filling gaps in the labour markets of the region's economies.     

Human rights and U.S.-Japan relations in Asia: Divergent allies

The United States has adopted a high-profile approach to pressure Asian governments to improve human rights and move toward democracy. Japan, in contrast, has avoided confronting its Asian neighbors over human rights while balancing between Asia and the West. Japan’s reluctance, in supporting the U.S., except in the multilateral context, has strengthened the position of Asian nations sanctioned by the West. Japan’s approach is explained by its lack of interests and convictions about promoting human rights in Asia, its past aggression in the region, the absence of explicit United States pressure on Japan and the deterrent effect of strong Asian opposition to foreign intervention on human rights. An earlier version of this article was presented at the International Studies Association Conference in Minneapolis in March 1998. I appreciate Davis Bobrow, Peter Li, Ryo Oshiba and Motoko Shuto for their very useful comments. Any errors in the paper are of course mine alone.     

Eastern Figures: Orient and Empire in British Writing

This article outlines the labour impacts and social consequences of the 1997–98 Asian financial crisis and 2008–09 global financial crisis on Southeast Asia. Both had adverse consequences on output, employment, income and poverty in the region, although the impact of the global financial crisis was much less severe compared to the Asian financial crisis. Economies recovered quickly from both crises. However, labour markets continue to be characterised by informal, vulnerable and precarious employment. The crises and the ensuing efforts of employers to resort to increased flexibility in labour hiring in both crisis and recovery periods fanned labour protests despite the diminutive size of the trade union movement and the underdeveloped system of industrial relations in most countries. In turn, these protests have triggered national and regional debates on rules for labour contracting, minimum wage adjustments and social protection. These debates have remained unresolved even as the region is gearing up for fuller economic integration in 2015 labelled as the ASEAN Economic Community.     

Northeast Asian Economic Integration: A Region in Flux

Over the last decade, essentially since the Asian crisis of 1997–98, the economic integration of Northeast Asia has been marked by three overarching trends. Economic relations have become: 1) more institutionalized; 2) more “Asian;” and 3) more China-centric. These macro-trends are demonstrated and analyzed in the paper. But by way of anticipation, numerous counter-cutting facts need also to be kept in mind. In essence, recent trends, notable as they are, have by no means reversed three counter-realities: 1) economic ties are still largely driven, less by governments and formal arrangements, than by corporations in search of profits and production efficiencies; 2) despite growing economic interdependence across Northeast Asia and between that sub-region and Southeast Asia, Japan, China and South Korea remain heavily linked to global, and particularly US, markets; and 3) though China is an ever important hub in Northeast Asian trade and investment, Japan remains by far the most powerful economic player in the region.     

The United States and East Asia in an age of financialization

This article starts from Peter Gowan's notion of a Dollar-Wall Street Regime (DWSR) characterized by financial deregulation, the dollar as the world's currency, large international capital flows, and frequent financial crises. The author argues that the DWSR has relied on a special economic relationship between the United States and East Asia, characterized by large East Asian trade and current account surpluses with the United States and the investment of East Asian dollar holdings in U.S. capital markets. For some time both parties benefited from this relationship, but eventually it gave rise to financial crises in East Asia. Thus, Japan's financial crisis around 1990 and the 1997/98 East Asian financial crisis are both related to economic over-accumulation caused by the buildup of currency reserves through trade with the United States. Attempts at East Asian monetary integration since 1997 are viewed as a potential challenge to the DWSR. These attempts have however been blocked or rendered harmless by regional divisions as well as by U.S. resistance. While an East Asian political challenge to theDWSRis unlikely for the time being, the special U.S.-East Asian economic relationship may become substantially weakened by the growing problems of the U.S. economy.     

论东亚经济共同体的形成基础及其发展趋势

近20年来,随着区域经济一体化的进展,东亚各经济体的贸易和投资关系日益密切。就贸易依存度而言,东亚已接近一体化程度最高的欧盟,堪称超越政治制度差异而组成的自然经济区域的典范。东亚区域大部分与东亚汉文化圈重叠,各国有相近的文化和价值观。相比欧盟地区,东亚地区历史上长期和睦相处,在东亚商贸圈内互通有无。因此,东亚各国的经济合作有着坚实的历史、人文和地理基础。随着经济一体化程度的加深,有利于促进一体化的政府间制度性安排也必将应运而生。当今各方政治领导人的主观意向,只能某种程度延缓或加速这种趋势。     

外部约束与东亚经济结构转型

长久以来,东亚经济增长一直是在供求要素结构不完备的经济体系下实现的,这一内在缺陷决定了东亚需要借助外部力量才能实现经济增长。外部力量既是东亚外向型经济增长的结构基础,也是影响或控制东亚经济增长的主要制约因素。2008年全球金融危机的爆发预示着有利于东亚经济增长的外部环境发生逆转,迫使东亚开始新一轮的结构调整与转型。而此次结构调整与转型将主要通过对过去经济运行体系特别是市场要素缺失的矫正来实现,以尽可能减少外部力量对经济增长的负面影响。     

The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Flying Geese Model

In the twentieth century Japan embarked on an economic developmental path that came to be known as the Flying Geese Model. The geopolitical milieu after the Second World War provided Japan with favourable conditions for rapid economic growth and industrialization. By the 1950s, many had noticed the success of the model and it was subsequently adopted by other East Asian countries. They too enjoyed decades of remarkable economic growth. An important element of the model is growth driven by export to the USA and Europe. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, the traditional markets of the geese are shrinking. The new situation poses grave challenges to both the existing flying geese economies and latecomer economies which wish to follow the model. East Asian countries are responding to the situation by broadening and deepening their existing economic linkages and developing new ones. This represents a continuation of East Asian regionalism in the wake of the 1997 financial crisis.     

Trade and investment in Southeast Asian development

Expansion of foreign trade and investment has been a vital factor underlaying the high economic growth of the Southeast Asian economies over the last ten years. As East and Southeast Asian economies continue to deregulate and prosper, trade and investment flows are becoming increasingly interconnected within the region. The character of this regional economic integration, however, has shifted recently. The role of the Japanese has declined while that of China and the overseas Chinese has boomed. Whereas China has absorbed huge amounts of foreign investment, investment to the Southeast Asian economies appears to be weakening significantly. This weakening of investment is occurring just as many Southeast Asian countries struggle to uppgrade the technical levels of their production of goods and services to accommodate the rising wages and income levels that are fundamental to sustained and broad-based increases in standards of living throughout the region.     

Asia's deepening financial crisis: Japan as a critical uncertainty

Japan's response to the economic crisis in East Asia is critical, not only for Japan itself but also for the Asia‐Pacific region and for the world. Kent Calder, Special Advisor to the US Ambassador to Japan, argues that the massive Japanese economy can potentially serve as a locomotive for the region, and as a sturdy fire wall to prevent the crisis from spreading. To do this, Japan must stimulate its economy, open markets further to Asian imports, and strengthen its financial system. If it fails, Japan could become part of the problem, instead of part of the solution.     

The future of coastal development in the Yellow Sea Rimlands

With its strategic location in East Asia, the Yellow Sea Rim is becoming an important economic region, where the socialist economies of China and North Korea and the market economies of Japan and South Korea interact and exchange for their mutual benefit. In light of the recent rapprochement among Northeast Asian countries, the article describes the emerging pattern of development in the Yellow Sea Rim. It assesses the potential gains of opening up the region by assuming a complete or partial removal of political barriers. Anticipating the future of cooperative regional development in the Yellow Sea Rimlands, the article discusses regional strategies and key issues involved in cooperation, in particular between China and South Korea.     

The financial crisis in East Asia

The East Asian financial crisis has proved far more contagious than anyone imagined likely when devaluation of the Thai baht in July 1997 gave the first indication that something was wrong, and the implications it could have for the entire world financial system mean that any response must involve more than just the nations affected directly. Nobuyuki Ichikawa says Japan, as the locomotive for the Asia‐Pacific region, must move quickly to achieve an early economic recovery by increasing domestic demand and reforming its financial system, in order to increase imports from East Asia and shore up the weak yen. He suggests that one effective measure might be for the yen to become the key currency for Asia in lieu of the dollar. Ichikawa works for the Bank of Japan and was seconded to IIPS in 1995.     

Asia‐Pacific economic cooperation: Progress and prospects

Secretary of Foreign Affairs Domingo L. Siazon Jr. of the Philippines discusses the Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum's path to the present, and charts a map for its future. Siazon sees the importance of promoting greater private‐sector involvement in APEC and enhancing economic cooperation among member economies. Siazon discusses the special significance of this year's meetings to be held at Subic Bay in the Philippines, the former home of the US Pacific Fleet and now a growing industrial and tourism center. Pursuing APEC's free‐trade goals, he says, holds the brightest economic future for the Philippines and the region.     

Government and business in Thailand

Institutions linking state and society affect both political and economic processes. Particularly critical are those institutions tying business and government. The effectivess of these institutions helps to determine the relative success national economies achieve in exploiting the challenges posed by the international economy. The particular form of the institutions is a critical factor influencing the development of a country’s political system. This article addresses in general terms the differences between business-government ties in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) and Northeast Asia (South Korea, Taiwan) as well as the differences among the former group. The article then offers a more detailed analysis of the patterns of cooperation and conflict between business and government in Tailand. His publications includeJapan’s Emerging Global Role (author and editor) (Lynne Rienner, 1993).     

Indonesia′s new challenges and opportunities: Blueprint for reform after the economic crisis

This article assesses the challenges and opportunities faced by the Indonesian government following the Asian economic crisis of 1997 and the fall of the Suharto regime. It examines Indonesia's ongoing economic decentralization program, and these policies' relations to market globalization; discusses regional development policies and their relations to ongoing changes in the central government; and attempts to define principles of “good governance” that will ensure Indonesia's ability to bail itself out of the current crisis and move toward positive long-term economic development. An earlier version of this article was presented at the conference on “Globalization and New Governance,” organized by the SEMIN Foundation of Korea and Asia Pacific Public Administration Forum of Taiwan, Suwon City, South Korea, October 7–11, 1999.     

The politics of Japan’s rice trade

This article analyzes both the domestic and international political factors that affect Japan’s rice trade policy. Based on the analysis, this article suggests that although Japan will open its rice market soon, the rice trade liberalization is likely to proceed very slowly and will be accompanied by a temporary surge of nontariff barriers. Domestically, a national coalition of producers, distributors, nationalists, politicians, bureaucrats, environmentalists, and consumers will delay and distort any rice trade liberalization program. Internationally, the pressure to further reduce rice trade barriers will decline due to the controversy over agricultural trade liberalization in the GATT negotiation, the lack of significant political pressure by politicians and interest groups within the United States, and Japan’s record of trade liberalization, especially in agricultural trade. He is the author ofInstitutions and Global Competitiveness (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1994).