Do Economic Linkages through FDI Lead to Institutional Change? Assessing Outcomes in Kazakhstan,Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can deliver benefits beyond the provision of capital, such as efficiency gains. We argue that the theorised positive effects of economic linkage are reduced when linkages are based on natural resources. Domestic elite coalitions supporting reform are also weaker in countries with extensive natural resources. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have high-value natural resources and significant FDI, making them most likely cases for reform. Kyrgyzstan is a contrasting case as it has few natural resources. We find that the institutional reforms we would anticipate because of linkages have not occurred and those that exist are often cosmetic.     

Resources and Governance in Sierra Leone’s Civil War

Abstract

We empirically investigate the role of natural resources, and governance in explaining variation in the intensity of conflict during the 1991–2002 civil war in Sierra Leone. As a proxy for governance quality we exploit exogenous variation in political competition at the level of the chieftaincy. As a proxy for resources we use data on the location of pre-war mining sites. Our main result is that neither governance nor resources robustly explains the onset or duration of violence during the civil war in Sierra Leone.     

To address or not to address the violent past in the classroom? That is the question in Côte d’Ivoire

In the aftermath of violent conflict, divided societies have to answer the important question of whether, when and how to address their country’s violent past within their educational system. Whereas some scholars within the field of peace education and transitional justice argue that addressing the violent past in the classroom is important for fostering mutual understanding and empathy among future generations in order to prevent conflict recurrence, other scholars are more sceptical about the need and feasibility of addressing the violent past in schools. They emphasize the possible negative impact in terms of increased tensions within schools and within society more generally. The current paper makes an important empirical contribution to this debate by analysing the views and perceptions on this matter of 984 secondary school teachers in Abidjan, the largest city and de facto capital of Côte d’Ivoire – a country that was recently torn apart by ethnic strife and violent conflict. It emerges that while so far most teachers have shied away from addressing their country’s conflict history in class, it also appeared that many of the teachers were actually in favour of breaking this culture of silence.     

War-torn countries,natural resources,emerging-power investors and the UN development system

The unsustainable aid dependency of war-torn countries – most of which are rich in natural resources – makes it imperative to start gradually replacing aid with foreign direct investment (fdi) and exports. This article identifies ways in which stakeholders – governments, the international community, including the UN development system, foreign investors, and local communities – could work together in a ‘win-win’ situation. Most crucial is avoiding conflict-insensitive policies that fuel discord by putting governments and foreign companies, often from emerging markets, in direct confrontation with local communities. The control of natural resources is often a root cause of conflict, and the latter’s exploitation can become a major challenge as wars end. The peculiarities of war-torn countries are discussed along with the specific impediments to attracting fdi into the exploitation of natural resources. An effective and fair legal framework is necessary to ensure that investors do not operate as ‘enclaves’, creating new conflicts.     

Market cycles,power politics and the latest North – South energy trade conflict

Energy trade periodically aligns Northern importing – consuming countries against predominantly Southern producing – exporting countries. Conflict appears to follow a cyclical pattern, whereby Northern firms invest in developing Third World hydrocarbon resources to meet consumer demand until market conditions enable unilateral efforts by host sovereigns to augment fiscal take and ownership share and to impose output restrictions, thereby elevating prices and revenues. Although markets eventually correct themselves, major consuming-country governments, to the extent that seller's markets attributable to exporter actions harm short-term consumer welfare and alternative options for restoring buyer's markets are lacking, have varying incentives to support military intervention. Shifting market conditions and power balances suggest six ideal-typical energy trade conflict strategies. Finally, to the extent that exporting states succeed in converting higher hydrocarbon revenues into energy-intensive economic growth, co-operative phases within this conflict pattern could yield to increasingly zero-sum inter-consumer rivalry.     

Does Oil Hinder Social Spending? Evidence from Dictatorships, 1972–2008

This paper examines the effects of natural resource abundance on social spending in dictatorships. Natural resources, particularly oil, provide authoritarian leaders with economic rents without widescale labor force participation. I argue that dependence on natural resource production thus reduces dictators’ incentive to invest in human capital, which is reflected in lower levels of social spending. Using a panel dataset of authoritarian regimes between 1972 and 2008, I find that oil abundance leads to significantly lower levels of social spending by authoritarian governments. The negative effects are especially prominent concerning expenditures for public education and health: when an authoritarian country earns ten more dollars per capita from oil production, per capita spending on education and health decreases by approximately 1%. Extended analysis shows that the negative impact of oil on social spending is peculiar to authoritarian regimes; no impact of oil wealth on social expenditures is found among democracies.     

East Africa's pastoralist emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back?

The global warming trend of climate change is having severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of the Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Care has to be taken in making assertions about the impact of climate change. The biggest effects may come not from lower average rainfall but from a widening of the standard deviation as weather extremes become more frequent. In a region already prone to drought, disease and conflict, climate change, access to modern weapons and new viral livestock diseases are now overwhelming pastoralists' coping capacity and deepening the region's roughly 30-year dependency on famine relief. This article examines the livelihood strategies of the Turkana and several poverty reduction programmes currently established, while addressing the reality that traditional pastoralism may no longer be a viable livelihood option, given the effects of climate change, disease and the ensuing conflict over diminishing resources. The findings conclude that the future for traditional Turkana pastoralists is dismal because they continue to depend on an environment that may no longer support them. Humanitarians are recommended to shift their focus to advocate and invest in alternative livelihood strategies that generate economic independence and help the Turkana adapt to their changing environment.     

How school influences adolescents’ conflict styles

The willingness to solve conflicts without violence and to strive for a reconciliation of interests is of central significance for the continued existence of democracies. In this paper, we aim to analyze school-related determinants of adolescents’ conflict behaviour. Models predicting the conflict styles of ‘integrating’, ‘dominating’, ‘avoiding’ and ‘obliging’ were developed drawing on different school climate and school development variables. At the individual level, almost all our hypotheses were confirmed. The highest correlations were found between an open classroom climate and the participation in a class council on the one hand, and an integrating conflict style on the other. On the class level however, most of the anticipated effects did not turn out to be significant. We hope that by providing information about different school climate and school development variables’ impacts on adolescents’ conflict styles, we can contribute to a more effective promotion of constructive conflict behaviour in adolescents.     

Natural Resources,Development Strategies,and Lower Caste Empowerment in India’s Mineral Belt: Bihar and Odisha During the 1990s

Despite having equally vast endowments of natural resources and similar socioeconomic profiles, the Indian states of Bihar and Odisha pursued markedly different development strategies during India’s first decade of economic liberalization. Whereas Bihar turned away from its natural resource sector and adopted policies of social empowerment, Odisha courted private investment in extractive industries and aggressively pursued market reforms. To account for this divergence, we argue that the social composition of political power in each state directly shaped the strategies that leaders embraced towards the natural resource sector and overall development. This paper makes contributions to the writings on natural resources and the political economy of India. We show that the presence of abundant natural resources does not necessarily result in a predictable pathway of sectoral and economic policy outcomes. Instead, social factors can be a powerful determinant of how resource-rich states approach their economies.     

International Migration: Pacifier or Trigger for Military Conflicts?

Whereas the impact of trade relations on conflict has been studied extensively, this is not the case for the impact of international migration. The latter might influence the size of expected costs and benefits, and hence the likelihood of military conflict between countries. In this paper, we discuss the channels through which bilateral migration can affect the prevalence of interstate military conflict. We then estimate migration’s impact on conflict using bilateral panel data between 1960–2000. We find evidence of a positive and robust impact of South-North and South-South migration on the occurrence of conflict. These effects are even larger when we control for potential endogeneity using a GMM approach.     

Modes of transition and the timing of separatist war onset: a comparative analysis of South Ossetia and Kosovo

This paper compares the escalation of civil war in South Ossetia and Kosovo and shows how different modes of transition deeply influenced the timing and type of conflict in these two cases. It argues that regimes resulting from a transition from above – when the elite in power leads the process of regime change and imposes its political agenda on other social actors – are more likely to ensure political stability in the short term, since governments are more cohesive internally, enjoy the support of the military, and can rely on a loyal bureaucracy. In contrast, regimes that emerge from transitions from below are more likely to experience civil war with an ethnic minority in the short term because of an intrinsic weakness of the elite in power. Under these circumstances, the newcomers need to win the loyalty of the military and of the bureaucracy, and separatist groups can take advantage of the incumbents’ weaknesses and try to build resources to militarily challenge the state.     

Civil society and spaces for natural resource governance in Kenya

Abstract

In the Kenyan context of new resource discoveries and an ambitious devolution programme, and what is argued to be a shrinking of civic space globally, the role of civil society organisations (CSOs) working on natural resource governance is critical. The resilience, space and capacity of civil society to engage in the policy process, from community-based organisations to national non-governmental organisations, all shape outcomes in terms of legislation, policy and management of scarce resources. Drawing on interviews with CSOs from across Kenya, following the new 2010 constitution and devolution programme, this article explores how new negotiated spaces of participation around resource governance have emerged in Kenya. Using multidimensional frameworks to analyse power relations, it explores how Kenyan CSOs are cautiously redefining roles, offering expertise when devolved governments struggle, and standing up to powerful interests of corporate lobbies with varying degrees of success.     

Angola: The politics of unsustainable development

Armed conflict facilitates corruption and Angola presents a dramatic case study of this process. This article explores why the political context represents the key impediment to sustainable development. Solve the political problems and the gates are open for the Angolan people to reap the benefits of an abundant natural resource base with a low population density. The country has been trying to undergo three transitions simultaneously, that from war to peace, from single-party rule to multiparty democracy and from a commandbased to a free-market economy. The article explores these processes and their effects on changing patterns of corruption.     

The real deal? The post-conflict constitution as a peace agreement

Abstract

When intra-state armed conflicts end through a negotiated settlement, the conflict parties frequently agree to amend or replace the country’s constitution. Their aim is to entrench the settlement, address the conflict incompatibility, reform institutions and take other measures to prevent a recurrence of violence. This article argues that post-conflict constitutions (PCCs) should be understood as peace agreements. It motivates this argument on conceptual, functional and legal grounds. It demonstrates that PCCs comply with conventional definitions of a peace agreement, are an intrinsic component of the conflict resolution process and have a range of peace maintenance functions. As supreme law, they become the definitive peace agreement. Research on peace durability following negotiated settlements should therefore focus not only on comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) but also on PCCs. PCCs should be conceived not as mere components of CPA implementation but as substantive political and legal agreements in their own right and as independent causes of peace.     

澳大利亚自然资源监管体系及对中国的借鉴意义

中国的自然资源出口措施近年来屡屡造成贸易摩擦。2012年1月,WTO上诉机构发布了中国原材料案的最终裁决,认定中国对9种自然资源采取的出口税和出口配额措施违规。2012年3月,美欧日向WTO申诉,指责中国稀土出口限制措施违规。一方面,中国的自然资源出口管理措施频频遭到贸易伙伴的发难,另一方面,中国对自然资源的开采和生产过程监管不力也导致资源的浪费和环境的污染,因此中国有必要审视、整改对自然资源的监管措施。澳大利亚作为自然资源较为丰富的发达国家,在自然资源的监管方面积累了较为成功的经验,对其进行考察研究将有助于我们更好地构建和改善中国的自然资源监管体系。     

Auditee Strategies: An Investigation of Auditees’ Reactions to the Norwegian State Audit Institution’s Performance Audits

This article contributes to theory on accountability—how it is played out and responded to. It uses the Norwegian State Audit Institution as an illustration. The responses of the audited entities to the SAI’s institutional pressure were identified through an analysis of four different cases. Four auditee strategies were identified. They indicate that the performance audit has impact when the auditees agree with the conclusions of the SAI. Sanctions from the control committee and the Parliament are equally important. Even though the extent of sanctions and conflict of opinion matter for the auditees’ responses, the effects are context dependent.     

Synergies between Different Types of Agricultural Technologies in the Kenyan Small Farm Sector

Sustainable intensification of agriculture will have to build on various innovations, but synergies between different types of technologies are not yet sufficiently understood. We use representative data from small farms in Kenya and propensity score matching to compare effects of input-intensive technologies and natural resource management practices on household income. When adopted in combination, positive income effects tend to be larger than when individual technologies are adopted alone. The largest gains occur when improved seeds are adopted together with organic manure and zero tillage. These results point at important synergies between plant breeding technologies and natural resource management practices.     

Poverty,resource distribution and security: The impact of new agricultural technology in rural Bangladesh

Recent studies have examined the relationship between agrarian change and rural poverty in LDCs concentrating on either exchange or non‐exchange income. Neither approach employed independently is, however, adequate. Bangladeshi evidence is presented of growing concentration of control of land, of components of new agricultural technology and of ancillary resources. Increasing incidence of landlessness and near landlessness has resulted in greater dependence on wage employment for subsistence by the rural poor. It is argued that the non‐exchange component of income is important in slack periods and assumes even greater significance in abnormal years when both real wage and employment fall sharply. With rapid population growth, depletion of natural resources and greater penetration of technological and market forces, the cushioning effect of access to natural resources, in adverse circumstances, on the rural poor has become more limited and their income security has been undermined.     

A Tale of Two Kazakhstans: Sources of Political Cleavage and Conflict in the Post-Soviet Period

Departing from some prominent scholarship on Kazakhstani politics, the author argues that competition between financial–industrial groups over scarce economic and political resources—rather than inter-clan or centre–periphery rivalries—largely determines who gets what, when and how. While clan politics and regional grievances may still influence struggles over the distribution of power and wealth, their importance has diminished in recent years. Instead, observable political conflict has centred around competing financial–industrial groups, which represent the diverse, and at times clashing, interests of Kazakhstan's business and political elites.     

Global Citizens or Faraway Viewers? São Paulo Residents Talk About the 2006 Lebanon Conflict

As the emergence of a global public sphere becomes a possibility, growing out of denser economic, political and communicative networks as well as demanded by increasingly complex international problems, questions arise about the capacity and willingness of various national publics to engage in the global debate. This paper shows the results of a news reception analysis with the public of the city of São Paulo, Brazil during the months of July–November 2006, when the Lebanon conflict was broadly covered by the Brazilian media. The paper identifies the modes of engagement with the news about the international conflict, the types of reasoning used by these publics in interpreting the news, and the types of debates and conversations they have or don’t have about the conflict. Special attention is given to the personal experience of learning about conflicts abroad and to the relationship between this experience and the construction of a new civic identity where participation in global affairs is an important element. The research shows that São Paulo residents are informed and care about international events, but to a large extent lack the resources and the spaces where they could reflect upon them. It also shows that young people tend to experience global events more intensely as part of their world than the general population.