中国与东亚地区安全——以地区复合安全的"过程导向"为视角

鉴于中国和东亚地区日益上升的国际地位,双方在安全领域内的互动关系不仅在本地区,而且在全球范围内引起了广泛关注与思考.国际关系研究已为此提供了几种关系模式,如中国中心的等级制,权力转移背景下的"安全困境",大国协调或共治,地区安全共同体等.上述看法都在某种程度上带有结构(结果)决定论的烙印,并不具有说服力.作者提出地区复合安全的"过程导向"的分析范式,即东亚安全是地区复合安全,在此背景下中国与东亚在安全领域的互动关系,其现状与发展趋势具有"过程导向"的根本特征.文章对ARF机制下中国的适应与"学习"及中国在朝核危机中的角色与作用两个案例的实证分析,显示出"过程导向"的现实意义.这不仅有利于塑造中国自身的安全,而且有利于重塑整个东亚地区的和平、稳定与秩序.     

Security Through Sociology: The North Caucasus and the Global Counterinsurgency Paradigm

The global counterinsurgency strategy to combat terrorism emphasizes responding to the social and economic needs of communities where terrorists may find support. Public opinion data can help in that strategy, as shown by a 2006 survey of 1,200 young males from three provinces in Russia's North Caucasus. Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the survey shows few signs of burgeoning radical Islam or ethnic animosity. Instead, economic conditions and poor governance are primary concerns. The region provides both an opportunity and threat: policymakers can and should address the region's needs; if not, radical Islamist groups can turn it into a flashpoint for terrorism.     

Self-interest,Perceptions of Transition and Welfare Preferences in the New Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus

This article studies public welfare preferences in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Generalised ordered logistic regression models and predicted probabilities are employed to analyse comparable attitudinal survey data. The results vary considerably among the countries, but age is the most important covariate of welfare preferences, followed by individuals’ socio-economic characteristics. The findings also indicate that popular perceptions of transition, notably in Ukraine and Moldova, are most strongly linked to preferences concerning the state's involvement in reducing the gap between the rich and the poor rather than to preferences regarding the main welfare state programmes such as pensions and healthcare.     

Russia and the Caucasus

Russia began moving toward the Caucasus at the end of the 16th Century. In the early 19th Century, the Tsars consolidated control over Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, but had to fight a 35‐year war against the North Caucasian mountaineers to secure control of the entire area The three Transcaucasian republics declared their independence before the collapse of the Soviet Union, but have been hard pressed to consolidate it because of Russian interference. In the North Caucasus, the Chechens declared their independence as well. Erratic Russian policies and freebooting by elements of the Russian military have resulted in disruptive intervention in all three of the Transcaucasian countries. In December 1994, Russia launched a military offensive to subdue the Chechens. The Chechens have fought back furiously, and Russia's war against them has become a domestic Afghanistan. Russia has yet to define its national interests in the Caucasus and adopt coherent policies toward the region. Until it does the area will continue to be unstable.     

当今世界地区冲突背后的宗教因素和现实根源

宗教因素,根据著名伊斯兰教学者金宜久的观点,包括宗教自我的形式（宗教思想、宗教情感、宗教体制等）、宗教意识形态、民族（宗教）传统文化、宗教性的社团组织和机构、国家实体（如阿富汗塔利政权）、     

South Caucasus from 1918 to 1921: history and historical parallels with the contemporary era

The republics that make up the South Caucasus today gained brief independence after the fall of the Tsarist Empire, before the integration of the region into Bolshevik Russia. This period, even though short, gives interesting historical background to understand the present. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to study the South Caucasian republics from 1918 to 1921 at the regional and international levels, paying particular attention to the historical continuities with the contemporary era (since 1991). The results of the study show three main parallels between the early twentieth century (1918–1921) and the present. First, the region is still internally divided (e.g. the unresolved conflicts). Second, externally, it is torn between sometimes opposing powers (e.g. Russia and the Western powers). Finally, third, the partnerships with international or regional powers still remain asymmetrical; consequently, the need to cooperate with Russia exceeds the aspirations of the Western powers toward the South Caucasus. Based on archival research, this study contributes to the historiography of the region and gives a framework for understanding the South Caucasus in contemporary international relations.     

印度与南亚区域合作

2004年1月4-6日,第十二届南亚区域合作联盟(以下简称"南盟")会议在巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡举行.会议通过了旨在减少贫困、加强经济合作和社会文化发展、保护地区环境、打击恐怖主义以及加强地区在信息和通信技术方面合作的<伊斯兰堡宣言>.     

Transformation and Decay: the de-institutionalisation of party systems in South America

This article surveys the evolution of party systems in South America in terms of their level of institutionalisation. In recent times political competition in much of South America has become less structured by political parties proper and has moved in the direction of candidate-centred movements and electoral vehicles led by political entrepreneurs. Most countries in South America (Brazil, Chile and Uruguay are exceptions) have experienced party system de-institutionalisation during the 1990s and 2000s, as voters have systematically punished traditional parties, often rendering them marginal or forcing their disappearance. The scale of decomposition varies across cases but it has affected countries with historically well institutionalised party systems (Colombia, Venezuela) and those with inchoate party systems (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia) alike.     

南亚地区安全的多重博弈

南亚地区安全是亚洲大格局的一个重要组成部分。和亚洲其他地区一样,冷战结束后,南亚地区的历史遗留问题没有得到解决,并因大国相继退出该地区后一度严重恶化;“9·11“以后,南亚更成为国际恐怖势力活动的温床,2008年11月26日发生在孟买的连环恐怖袭击将南亚地区的各种矛盾冲突置于国际媒体的聚光灯下，主要角色间的互动再次使该地区成为亚洲地区安全的一个重大缺口。本文拟从地区安全的角度剖析南亚多重矛盾斗争的现实，试图从该地区形式各异的冲突中找到一些可以解释这种错综复杂现象的真实原因。