What's Right about the Left–Right Dimension? The Causes and the Consequences of Ideological Inconsistency on Economic Issues in Germany

There is growing evidence that policy preferences of citizens on economic issues do not follow an ideological left–right pattern; that is, from the perspective of political science theory, citizens' economic policy preferences are ideologically inconsistent. This article examines this phenomenon for the German case. It shows that a large share of German citizens have ideologically inconsistent views on economic issues. The article further investigates the causes of this ideological inconsistency and its consequences for democratic representation: citizens with inconsistent views tend to be more dissatisfied with their own societal position and tend to have less political knowledge. The article further shows that citizens with ideologically inconsistent views are less satisfied with democracy and less likely to vote in elections, because they cannot find adequate representation among the established parties.     

日本经济政策不确定性与企业研发投资--基于日本上市企业微观数据的实证检验

在梳理日本经济政策不确定性波动情况的基础上,利用2010年-2018年日本上市企业微观数据,通过构建实证模型探讨了日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响,主要结论有:(1)日本经济政策不确定性的提高对企业研发活动产生负面影响;(2)日本经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响具有行业差异;(3)不同经济政策的不确定性对日本企业研发活动的影响方向不同。贸易政策、金融政策不确定性指数的增加负面冲击企业研发活动,而财政政策、汇率政策不确定性的提高却激励企业研发投资。相较于日本,中国企业研发管理经验较少,风险承担能力较弱,政府更应重视在运用政策手段平滑景气波动的同时,避免政策施行的大起大落,警惕经济政策不确定性的过快、过度提高,尽可能营造、引导产生良好的市场预期,并采取有效措施切实支持企业创新活动。     

When Investors Enjoy Less Policy Risk: Divided Government,Economic Policy Change,and Stock Market Volatility in Germany, 1970‐2005

How does divided government affect the probability of economic policy change, and thus policy risk on financial markets? In contrast to the standard balancing model we argue that divided government, i.e., partisan conflict between the executive and the legislative branches, negatively affects the possibility of economic policy change. Using a simple spatial model we demonstrate that one should expect divided government to increase the probability of policy gridlock. Since divided government reduces the probability of economic policy change, financial markets can operate under lower policy risk in times of divided than in periods of unified government. For the empirical evaluation we exploit the fact that stock return volatility provides us with a measure of risk. If the gridlock argument does hold, stock return fluctuations should be lower under divided than under unified government. Our results confirm that divided government has a volatility reducing effect on the German stock market. This supports the view that divided government lowers policy risk.     

The Politics of Retrenchment: The Quandaries of Social Protection Under Military Rule in Chile, 1973–1990

Chile's military government replaced the country's universalistic social policy system with a set of market-oriented social policies. Taking evidence from three areas (pensions, education, and health care), this study seeks to explain why the military advanced a policy of deep retrenchment and why reform of health care was less thorough than it was in pensions and education. The radical transformation of policy relates to the breadth of power concentration enjoyed by General Pinochet and his economic team, the policymakers' ideological positions, and the role of veto players. The more limited reform of health care is linked to the actions of a powerful veto player, the professional association of physicians.     

Explaining Free Trade: Mexico, 1985–1988

This study examines Mexico's unilateral trade liberalization experience from 1985 to 1988. It traces the origins of policy change to officials in the Central Bank, who took advantage of periodic economic crises to pursue their agenda. Opposing them were bureaucrats tied to an industrial sector that also objected to substantial trade liberalization. Mexico's institutional structures influenced the balance of bargaining power as reform supporters and opponents bitterly fought to define the scope, depth, and timing of the implementation process. Successful implementation led to the emergence of business interests in favor of free trade—interests that would provide crucial backing for the North American Free Trade Agreement.     

Party Politics and Economic Policy in the New Germany

Germany experienced economic malaise in the 1990s, raising the question of whether or not the political system is capable of reform. The reactions of the political parties to economic problems demonstrate an enduring set of norms about economic policy which include a generous social welfare system and an emphasis on co-operation between business and labour. However, there is a general agreement about the need for policy reform, and recent moves by the Red-Green coalition indicate a willingness to undertake significant steps towards a slightly more pluralist and liberal set of policies. The dynamic of party politics over the last decade indicate a mature, stable political system capable of reform.     

The Polish Shipyard: Myth,Economic History and Economic Policy Reform in New Zealand*

The New Zealand economy before the election of the Fourth Labour Government in 1984 is often portrayed as something not only highly regulated — but as something uniquely so amongst developed nations, with a stagnant economy declining in the post‐war era and nearing collapse by the 1984 election — the Polish shipyard. We show that New Zealand was not overly‐regulated by the standards of the time, with many of its policies reflecting development elsewhere; it was generally liberalising in the post‐war era and its economic decline and supposed collapse have been considerably overstated. This invented history gave impetus to radical economic reform after 1984 by framing the apparently failed and bizarre past as forcing inevitable solutions. It is an important constraint on policy‐making in New Zealand, allowing policy to develop only along certain “appropriate” paths. It provided cohesion for policy makers in the face of less than certain results and harnessed emotional and intellectual energy towards the free‐market quest, while legitimating certain policy directions and de‐legitimating others.     

Soviet Union and the Third World: The Economic Dimension

This paper surveys some of the outstanding issues and changes in the economic dimension of Soviet involvement in the non-communist Third World over the last 30 years. It attempts to identify and integrate salient features of current knowledge about Soviet economic policy toward the less developed countries. After a survey of the evolution of Soviet arms transfers and economic aid and trade relations, the paper concludes with some reflections on the effectiveness of Soviet policy and prospects for future change. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 420.     

Hard Bargains: The Impact of Multinational Corporations on Economic Reform in Latin America

This article promotes the idea that multinational corporations have independent agency in the process of economic reform in Latin American host countries. Through a number of pooled cross-sectional time series analyses, it shows that accumulated foreign direct investment can affect policy reform in ways unanticipated by earlier theories predicated on the obsolescence of firms' influence after initial investment. The influence of firms varies across different reform areas, and competitive pressures lead firms to press alternately for liberal and illiberal reform measures. The study also considers sectoral issues, and argues that a preponderance of natural resource–oriented FDI can alter the impact of multinational investment on policy reform. Indexes of economic reform are measured against stocks of FDI and a number of political and economic control variables. Evidence shows that the dramatic increase in FDI in the region in recent years has bolstered firms' bargaining power and concomitant policy leverage.     

The Positioning of Economic Rationality in Colombia

This article explains how economic rationality in Colombia came to play a growing role in the management of economic policy and social analysis, as a case study of a process that is observed in various parts of the world. In addition to the rise of a technocratic elite, this involved the positioning of economic rationality in managing strategic state institutions and the creation of knowledge about society. We explain the mechanisms that enabled economists to occupy these positions, displacing other social scientists and sociologists.     

Developmentalism and its Environmental Legacy: The Western Australia Wheatbelt, 1900 – 1990s

The Western Australia Wheatbelt contains the largest area of dry-land salinity in Australia with major economic, social and environmental consequences. In recent years salinity has been widely recognised as the State's worst environmental problem. Yet, the historical record shows that this crisis, which has taken half a century to fully materialise, was largely foreseen by contemporary agricultural scientists. In examining the origins of the salinity crisis, the article examines the reasons why this scientific advice was ignored. It locates the schemes to open up the area for agriculture in the period 1900-1980s within the ideology of developmentalism which became the major plank in the policy of successive governments. The article identifies the key elements in the way developmentalism was applied to agriculture and discusses its populist appeal; the separation of science from policy; and the institutionalisation of the developmentalist ethos in the administrative arms of government.     

论欧盟的经济力量

从人口、国内生产总值、国际贸易等经济总量考察,欧盟作为一个整体的经济实力基本与美国相当;从经济多极化的角度而言,欧盟是世界经济的重要一极。欧元自启动以来很快成为仅次于美元的世界第二大货币,这打破了美元一家独霸的局面,有助于国际金融体系的稳定和促进世界经济的平衡发展。欧盟依据其经济力量,通过贸易和发展援助政策以及倡导多边主义原则而成为国际经济的规则制定者。欧盟的经济一体化模式和经济社会模式对世界经济产生了重大的示范影响。     

The Problem of Macroeconomic Policy Crossroads:Explaining the Economic Policy Paradox of Switzerland and Japan in the 1990s

The 1990s, which can be characterized as a decade of disinflationary growth and austerity policies for most developed market democracies, was the decade of stagnant growth and policy complacency for Switzerland and Japan. Based on a framework that emphasizes the structure of policy choices available to governments at economic crossroads (or crisis), I show Switzerland and Japan are unique in that (a) disinflationary fundamentals spared the countries from speculative or inflationary pressure that required drastic responses and (b) the governments paradoxically maintained conservative economic policies despite room for expansion in order to continue policies based on the compromise between export and domestic sectors. The policy crossroads perspective stresses the importance of endogenous coalitions even in a world of economic globalization to explain concerted politics and conservative policies, and to assess the true impact of international finance on domestic changes.     

经济一体化与国家利益

世界经济发展的规律表现为从国际化起步,发展到全球化,最终成为完全一体化.从经济全球化到一体化是一个长期的渐进过程,对一个主权国家的安全利益、政治利益、经济利益和文化利益等都将产生重大而深刻的影响.作为最大的发展中国家中国,应以积极主动策略应对,以维护和发展国家利益.     

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise: Economic Ideas and Immigration Control Reforms in Switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the “epistemic community“ of free‐market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a “credible causal story“ about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context.     

A Decade of Lost Growth: Economic Policy in Spain through the Great Recession

In 2008 the Spanish economy sank into recession, returning to growth in 2014. This paper explores the policies that were pursued by two successive governments to escape the recession. It comments on one of the most contentious strategies, that of austerity, and underlines the constraints on policy imposed by membership of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and a decentralised state. The Great Recession and accompanying austerity policy were associated with huge social and economic costs. Policy targets on the debt and deficit were not met. This experience, together with the broader sluggish growth in Europe and the political consequences associated with austerity, pointed to the need for a new policy mix.     

Cognitive Images and Support for International Economic Agreements with the United States Among Mexican Citizens

A 1995 survey shows that Mexican citizens depend on their cognitive and affective orientations toward the United States in forming opinions about economic agreements between the two countries. The degree to which respondents utilized general feelings toward the United States rather than images of the United States varies by educational level and across the two agreements that were examined, NAFTA and the Clinton economic stabilization package of 1995. Whether respondents utilized an image of U.S. economic imperialism or of racial discrimination against people of Mexican origin in forming their opinions also depends on the level of education attained and on the policy domain of the agreement. The cognitive processes respondents utilized to form opinions about these economic agreements also differ across educational levels and policy domains. The findings have important implications for the capacity of Mexican elites to mobilize support for agreements with the United States and more generally for U.S.-Mexican relations.     

Economic liberalism and the Philippine telecom industry

It may be important and even necessary to build a free and fair market competition environment, which could encourage industrial innovation and increase the long-term social benefits of development. However, there is a need for a stronger and more autonomous state authority to settle and safeguard the liberalized market. Since state protection of the market fattens the monopoly company, the liberalization policy should be linked with state efforts to undo the previous monopoly structure. This article argues that specific industrial development, or national economic development in general, may rely more on the intrinsic characteristic of the state rather than on the economic paradigm per se, i.e., statist or neo-liberalist. Furthermore, the improvement of social welfare may depend more on the power structure among political players rather than on the political system itself whether authoritarian or democratic     

Economic crisis,families, and family policy in the Baltic states, 2009–2014

ABSTRACT

The three Baltic countries experienced the most rapid population decline throughout the 1990s and 2000s in Europe. The resulting critical demographic situation motivated the governments of the Baltic states to pay more political attention to family policy issues than in the rest of Europe. The aim of the paper is to analyze the development of family policy in Baltic countries and factors that influenced it during the 2009 economic crisis. Also, the outcomes in terms of child poverty and fertility are highlighted. Results show that the economic resources and fertility level had an essential impact on family policy in the Baltic states. Economic support to families, in turn, directly alleviate the poverty level of families and indirectly influence fertility.     

通过市场关系走向社会主义——对布哈林几个经济理论问题的再认识

列宁逝世以后,布哈林继续坚持和捍卫列宁的新经济政策思想,并结合俄国的实际,针对当时苏俄国民经济发展中出现的一系列问题,总结过去经济建设中的经验和教训,系统地阐释自己的观点,从而形成了关于过渡时期的经济理论.这些理论观点可以简单概括为:社会主义革命和建设的发展因各国的社会历史条件不同而具有不同的"民族类型";只有实现工业化,才能消除二元经济之间的差距;要使国民经济持续健康发展,必须重视市场调节的作用,使国民经济各部门之间保持综合平衡.