The Coming Sino-U.S. Clash？ --A Review of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics

Eight years ago, Professor John J. Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago argued that a Sino-U.S. confrontation was inevitable in the first 20 years of the 21st century. In the light of the 20 years＇ development in Northeast Asia since the end of the Cold War, however, all scenarios and explanations given in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics are incorrect.     

China-U.S. Trade——the Path of Development

The United States is the world's largest economy and China is ranked number four; together the two countries comprise one third of the global economy. 40% of the international economic growth is sustained by the two countries. In terms of international trade, the United States and China are the first and the third largest trading nations respectively. Trade developments of these two countries have a huge impact on international imports and exports.     

Sino-U.S. Relations “Paradigms” and China＇s U.S. Strategy

In author＇s view, there are several alternative paradigms that could develop governing Sino-U.S. relations over the next decade. To keep the process of its rise uninterrupted, China should take active ...     

Personal View on Sino-U.S. ＇Trust Deficit＇

The lack of strategic trust between China and the U.S.has attracted a great deal of attention recently in both countries.An article carried in Stars and Strips newspaper said that "bilateral distrust is at an all-time high," and the two are engaged in a "new kind of Cold War".1 Several newspapers in China carried this story and several Chinese scholars also gave their take on the situation.2 The author of this paper believes that this is an exaggerated and one-sided view and does not reflect the reality of the state of China-U.S.relations.     

Sino-U.S. Comparisons of Soft Power

This article proposes a method for measuring soft power. Overall, it is estimated that China has roughly a third of America＇s power in this respect. Three factors constitute the soft power of a country： its international appeal, its external and its internal mobilization capabilities. In the short term, China cannot hope to catch up in international appeal and needs to find a balanced way to develop both hard and soft power. It needs to set policy guidelines based on equality and justice, enhance its capabilities for rallying both external and domestic support, and concentrate on improving its social credibility and international strategic reputation. In doing so, it is hoped that China will be able to narrow the gap in these areas within four to five years.     

Sino-U.S. Strategic Mutual Trust

Relations between China and the U.S. have been relatively stable for nearly seven years, for the first time since the end of the Cold War. Strategic mutual trust, however, is not enough and there is a long way to go before both countries can achieve a permanent strategic stability. Four problems have prevented stability in bilateral relations, namely structural internal accidental and cognitive issues. The goal of building strategic mutual trust still remains distant, and developing a good understanding between each other is the thorniest problem for both countries. Better mutual understanding can lead to an expansion of bilateral relations. China and the U.S. need to increase mutual trust and work towards achieving strategic stability.     

The Burma Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

In January 2007, China and Russia vetoed a UN draft resolution on Burma with the result that the Burma issue has become yet another point of conflict between the U.S. and China. Although the Burma issue has been present for nearly 20 years, China and the U.S. have both successfully kept their differences under control. In the short term, it is unlikely that conflict will break out between China and U.S. over Burma. However, in the long term,there is still the possibility that the Burma issue could trigger a conflict between China and the U.S..     

Prospects for China-U.S. Relations Are on the Bright Side

China-U.S. relations are one of the most important bilateral relations in today's world. It not only relates to the overall interests of both sides, but also has an important influence on peace, security and development of the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large. In the foreseeable future, China-U.S. relations will definitely be upgraded to the world's most important bilateral     

Prospects for U.S. Foreign Policy and Sino-U.S. Relations Following Obama’s Re-election

The focus of Obama’s second term diplomacy will continue to be the acceleration of the U.S. global strategic shift eastward to Asia. With increasing competition and more competitive factors emerging over the next four years, the existing competitive and cooperative political structure in Sino-U.S. relations should continue to help keep bilateral political relations stable.     

Contradictions and Compatibility between China＇s Multilateral Cooperation System and the U.S.-led Bilateral Alliance Structure in East Asia

The bilateral alliance structure dominated by the United States and the multilateral cooperation system advocated by China exist side by side in East Asia, which presents distinct dualistic structural feature of the international system in the region. These two systems, in essence, are contradictory and mutually opposing and neither of which could replace the other in reality. In a relatively long period of time, these international systems in East Asia will drive the region to and stability in the process contradictions and compatibility. develop in a direction of peace of accommodation between     

Sino-U.S. Scientific/Technical Cooperation and China＇s Response

Sientific/technical exchange and cooperation is one of vital factors in Sino-U.S. relations. On January 1st, 1979, leaders of the two countriessigned the ＂Agreement on Scientific and Technological Cooperation between China and the United States＂. 35 years later, Sino-U.S. scientific/ technical exchange and cooperation has become one of the most dynamic and important domains in bilateral relations.     

The Zimbabwe Issue in Sino-U.S. Ties

The United States has criticized the domestic and foreign policies of the Mugabe regime, and has attempted to raise the Zimbabwe issue in the UN Security Council, thus creating a point of potential conflict in Sino-U.S. relations.China differs from the United States on this issue not because of the measures taken by the Western countries such as economic sanctions and political pressure, but,more significantly, because of the Western conception of democracy and human rights, and the difference between the U.S. and Chinese strategies in Africa. The policies of China and the United States on the Zimbabwe issue can be interpreted as a struggle between two powers in Africa. In the short term, however, it is the Middle East that will continue to preoccupy U.S. foreign policy, and Zimbabwe will not become a major flash point in Sino-U.S. relations.     

Darfur and Sino-U.S. Relations

The Darfur issue has been influencing the Sino-U.S. relationship since July 2004. There are at least three reasons to say so. Firstly, China and the U.S. disagree,both on the nature of the issue and on its solution. Secondly,China and the U.S. have conflicting interests, especially their oil interests in Sudan and the African continent.Finally, U.S. domestic political forces have forced the issue onto the agenda of Sino-U.S. relations. Although the issue has become an unharmonious factor in the Sino-U.S.relationship, it has not damaged the bilateral relations too much. Instead, the two countries have been cooperating on the issue.     

CHINA-U.S. Relations in 2007： Increased Challenges

1. The development of China-U.S. relations in 2007 will be influenced mainly by the following factors: (1) The trend of U.S. economic development; (2) The changes in U.S. domestic politics; (3) the Iraq issue; (4) The Taiwan question; (5) The way China deals with China-U.S. relations.     

The Iran Nuclear Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations

The Iran nuclear issue has become the "third factor" in Sino-U.S. relations. Problems began when the U.S. imposed sanctions against Chinese companies, and this became a major issue affecting Sino-U.S. relationship.China and the U.S. have different agendas in dealing the Iran nuclear issue. However, they also share some common ground. Different scenarios regarding the Iran nuclear issue affect Sino- U.S. relations in different ways.     

U.S. ＂Hegemonic Anxiety＂ and Its Strategic Shift East

After the Cold War, the U.S. was left as the world' s sole superpower. There has been no country like the U.S. in history that has possessedsuch a prominent and dominant position. The U.S.' most pres...     

＂Renormalization＂： Management Issues in Building ＂New-Type Sino-U.S. Ties＂

Since President Nixon visited China in 1972, the ice has broken in China-U.S. relations. In 1979, the two countries normalized bilateral relations by establishing diplomatic relations. Over the past three decades, bilateral relations have experienced complicated and convoluted change. Today, China-U.S. relations are entering     

The Appreciation of RMB： A Panacea for the U.S. Trade Deficit？

According to U.S. statistics, the U.S. trade deficit with China in 2000 hit US$83.8 billion, exceeding that with Japan for the