The terrorist mind: I. A psychological and political analysis

Part I of this two-part article describes the major forms of domestic and foreign terrorism, the motivations of the perpetrators, and the psychological, social, and political forces that contribute to this most particular expression of violence. The article addresses the question of whether all terrorists are sick or evil and considers the possibility that some forms of terrorism, however odious their result, can be a rational response to a situation of perceived intolerable injustice. The article examines what motivates people to join terrorist groups and what may later move them to leave the terrorist lifestyle. Special consideration is given to the psychological and religious dynamics of suicide terrorism and what might motivate some people to give their lives for their cause. Finally, the article offers recommendations for a multipronged approach to dealing with this modern yet ageless scourge.     

Pathway to terrorist behaviors: The role of childhood experiences,personality traits,and ideological motivations in a sample of Iraqi prisoners

Radicalization to terrorism is a multifaceted process with no single theory or approach to explain it. Although research has focused on understanding the process, there is still a dearth of studies that examine an empirically driven pathway to terrorism behavior. This study examines a cross-sectional sample of incarcerated men convicted of terrorism in Iraq (N = 160). A questionnaire-guided interview included adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), conduct disorder (CD), antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), religious and political ideology, views about causes of terrorism, and the severity of terrorist acts. Path analysis was employed to examine the relationships between these factors and to identify the model with the best fit. After adjusting for age, employment, and location, results indicated that ACEs positively impacted CD, ASPD, religious guidance, and terrorism attitudes. ASPD positively affected political commitment and terrorism attitudes, but inversely affected current religious commitment. Political commitment inversely influenced terrorism attitudes. Religious commitment positively influenced the prioritization of religion in life, which subsequently impacted terrorism attitudes and behavior severity. Additionally, attitudes toward terrorism directly affected the severity of terrorism behavior. All paths in the final model were statistically significant at p < 0.05. Although these findings may be limited in generalizability due to the unique sample, results support the complex and interdependent nature of childhood and adult experiences on the development of both terrorism attitudes and the severity of terrorism behavior.     

Terrorism and mental illness: is there a relationship?

This article examines the connections between mental illness and terrorism. Most social scientists have discounted a causal relationship between mental illness and terrorism. This is not necessarily always the case within terrorism studies, the media, or political circles where the psychology of terrorism is often expressed in the language of mentalisms, and theories of pathologisation continue to exist. This article reaffirms the view that apart from certain pathological cases, there is no causal connection between an individual's mental disorder and engagement in terrorist activity. The individual terrorist's motivations can be explained by other factors, including behavioural psychology. However, there may be a connection between an individual engaging in terrorist activity and developing a mental disorder[s]. Certain stressors that occur because of terrorist activity may result in psychological disturbance in terrorist individuals. These factors may partially explain terrorist group instability and should be taken into account when detaining and interrogating terrorist suspects.     

Government protection against terrorism and crime

A game theoretic model is developed where a government protects against a terrorist seeking terrorism and criminal objectives. A terrorist can recruit a benefactor providing funds by remaining ideologically pure, or may resort to crime. The model accounts for the players’ resources, unit costs of effort, unit benefit and valuations and contest intensities for terrorist and crime objectives. We determine and quantify how these factors and the government impact a terrorist’s terrorism and crime efforts and relative ideological orientation on a continuum from being highly ideological to being highly criminal. We also consider how the terrorist group is impacted by support of benefactor(s), the central authority’s ability to impose greater sanctions for terrorist activities compared to criminal actions and the ideological orientation of the group’s leadership. We discuss insights from the model and consider a few historical perspectives.     

Interdiction and Indoctrination: The Counter‐Terrorism and Security Act 2015

Lying behind the recent Counter‐Terrorism and Security Act 2015 is the phenomenon of foreign terrorist fighters which has sparked international and national attention. The 2015 Act deals with many facets of counter terrorism legislation, but its two principal measures are singled out for analysis and critique in this paper. Thus, Part I of the Act seeks to interdict foreign terrorist fighters by preventing suspects from travelling and dealing decisively with those already in the UK who pose a risk. Part V of the Act implements the second, broader aspect, of legislative policy, reflecting the UN emphasis on ‘Countering Violent Extremism’, through the statutory elaboration and enforcement of the ‘Prevent’ element of the long‐established Countering International Terrorism strategy, which aims to stop people becoming terrorists or supporting violent extremism. These measures are explained in their policy contexts and set against criteria of effectiveness, personal freedom, and accountability.     

The Threat Environment Created by International Terrorism from the German Police Perspective

International terrorism motivated by Islamist ideology poses completely new challenges to the security authorities of the affected states in terms of manner of commission and impact. The present contribution describes the threat created by international terrorism from the German police perspective. It begins by describing the threat represented by the terrorist crime phenomenon in terms of motivation, perpetrator and crime profiles, and organisational structure. This is followed by comments on how and to what extent international terrorism threatens German interests, as well as how German legislators have reacted. However, the main emphasis is placed on the counter-strategies of the German security authorities, in particular on mutual networking and intensified efforts to close ranks with other actors engaged in the battle against international terrorism.     

Situational prevention of terrorism. Remarks from the field of counterterrorism in the Netherlands on Newman and Clarke’s Policing Terrorism

In this paper I shall discuss how criminal investigation might contribute to a situational approach to terrorism. Therefore I discuss Policing Terrorism by Newman and Clarke, and confront it with experiences from work in the field of counterterrorism: criminal investigations at the Dutch National Police Agency (NPA). I demonstrate that Newman and Clarke have too narrow a scope on policing terrorism, in particular when it comes to the role of criminal investigation. They restrict their focus to local police work in the phases immediately before and after a terrorist attack. This is unfortunate because case files show that criminal investigators play a central role in the prevention of terrorism. They intervene in earlier phases of terrorist preparation, target a wider range of terrorist offences than terrorist attacks, and prosecute radicals for their non-terrorist offences. Furthermore, criminal investigations offer insights that might be of help in developing an SCP approach to terrorism.     

我国刑法中“恐怖活动犯罪”的认定

“制造社会恐怖”是恐怖活动犯罪特有的犯罪目的 ,正确理解恐怖活动犯罪的这一犯罪目的的内容 ,以及由这一目的决定的恐怖活动犯罪的罪过结构和客观特征 ,是司法实践中认定恐怖活动犯罪 ,正确适用刑法相关规定的基本前提。     

A Preliminary Report of Psychiatric Diagnoses in a Scottish County Sample of Persons of National Security Concern

Increasing anecdotal, empirical, and research evidence indicates mental disorder history is one of the several factors associated with increased risk of involvement in lone-actor terrorist activities. Currently, few studies have been conducted on the mental disorder histories of individuals assessed as at risk of involvement in terrorist activities (Meloy, J Threat Assess Manag 2019;6:93). This pilot study describes demographic, psychiatric, and criminal characteristics of a sample of Scottish individuals identified by the Prevent element of the U.K. national counterterrorism strategy, and outcome data after follow-up at 2 years. Twenty-three individuals were referred to Prevent as posing a national security risk from a county in Scotland. Their records were studied for psychiatric and criminal histories. Nine (39%) had previous psychiatric contact, all were “lone actors”, and none were embedded with organized terrorist groups. The most common diagnoses were substance use disorder, personality disorder, depression, and psychotic disorder. The sample displayed factors associated with increased risk of violence including previous offending, early behavioral difficulties, school problems, substance misuse, cluster B personality disordered traits. After 2 years, 44% of the mentally disordered group had re-offended. The offense types were generally similar to those prior to the individual being involved with the Prevent counter terrorism program. Only one of the mentally disordered group committed a further national security offense. In this sample, mental disorder history is overrepresented in individuals who come to the attention of the U.K. Prevent counter terrorism strategy. Further empirical studies with additional power are required to develop the empirical evidence base in this under-researched area.     

Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.     

Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

The purpose of the present study is to produce foresights on terrorism. For the first time in the literature, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling to forecast terrorism. Because the relevant literature suggests that target selection and the places where terrorist attacks occur are related to a group’s strategies, we also investigate whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their surroundings in the same jurisdiction when the ideology is the point of comparison. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1152 violent terrorist acts between 2008 and 2012 in Istanbul, Turkey. Our analysis begins with a comparison of targets and risk factors by the ideology of the perpetrators for 857 separatist and 295 leftist terrorist incidents. After identifying high-risk locations, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling. The study results showed that context and spatial influence—the risky areas of terrorism—vary by the nature of the ideology in the jurisdiction. Practical implications also are discussed.     

Eternal Return? Social Science Perspectives of ‘Upstream’ Terrorist Activities

The 9/11 attacks stimulated an unprecedented academic interest in the study of terrorism; bringing a range of new disciplinary perspectives, theoretical frameworks and empirical tools to the subject. Within a broad social science perspective, this paper seeks to draw on these cross-disciplinary resources to understand pre-attack terrorist activities. In doing so, the paper first reviews some of the key themes relating to the study of terrorism including (but not restricted to) empirical values, the duplication of knowledge, points of consensus, and the focus on individual and deterministic features. The paper then examines conceptualizations of ‘terrorism as a process’ as they relates to pre-attack activities and considers current analyses relating to this issue. Here, temporal features of attack cycles are particularly prominent. The third area of analysis draws from a range of social science disciplines – including environmental psychology, human geography, sociology and criminology – to investigate the prospects of furnishing these accounts with spatial detail. These discussions are organized by a number of overarching arguments. These include: the importance of inter-relationships between counter-terrorism practice and precise understandings of terrorist action; and of exercising caution over deterministic pathways of action and accounts that focus too heavily on the individual level of action.     

Like Zealots and Romans: Terrorism and Empire in the 21st Century

The paper defines terrorismand gives a rough classification of itstraditional forms: repressive terrorism,insurrectional terrorism ofethnic/national/separatist character andsocial-revolutionary terrorism. To explainthese forms of terrorism, scholars used twomodels: the psychiatric model and thesociological model. Both were – and are –not just objects of scholarly debate, butpart and parcel of a political conflictover the legitimacy of terrorist actions.In the last decade, new forms of terrorism(most prominent: fundamentalist Islamicterrorism) have developed as a reaction toglobalization and Empire-building. We haveseen a development from provincialterrorism to terrorism of global reach,from terrorism as a form of political crimeto terrorism as criminalized war. Thetraditional explanatory models have,therefore, to be supplemented by adiscussion of the dialectical relationbetween the growing American Empire and aspecific form of military opposition.Defined as terrorism, this opposition has,ironically, become a rather useful enemy inthe process of Empire-building. There ishope that the Empire will, in the not sodistant future, be able to monopolize thelegitimate use of military force,criminalize all other forms of violenceand, thus, turn the terror of wars into amere war on terrorism.     

The Impact of Technology and Communications upon International and Transnational Terrorism

The purpose of this inquiry is to examine the nature of terrorism, primarily in European and Western industrial nations. Specifically the article (1) examines the impact that has resulted from technological advances in communication and weapons and (2) discusses the necessity of international cooperation in the effort to defeat terrorism. The article documents that terrorism is a serious threat to Western democracies including the United States as well as an international threat. The conclusion of the article is that it has become more difficult to counter terrorism due to technological advances which have delivered greater destructive power into the hands of a few fanatics. The primary technological effects discussed are (1) those relating to communication which has enabled terrorists to establish a “world-wide network” and (2) the addition of toxins and nuclear weapons to the arsenal of the terrorist. As an international problem, however, the difficulty of countering terrorism is not rooted in the technological sophistication of the terrorist but in international disputes about the question, “what is terrorism”. Nations appear to be unable to mount an international assault against terrorism due to the great difficulty of arriving at a commonly accepted definition of terrorism. This article discusses the obstacles to defining terrorism encountered by the international community and the role that bilateral and multinational agreements have played in countering terrorism.     

Patterns of Onset and Decline Among Terrorist Organizations

Despite considerable speculation among terrorism researchers regarding the conditions leading to organizational desistance from terrorism, quantitative analysis of terrorism frequently focuses on terrorist attacks as the unit of analysis, resulting in a near complete absence of analyses of terrorist organizations themselves. Moreover, research on organizations that engage in terrorism has generally been limited to case studies of individual organizations. Toward a more general understanding of what conditions predict organizational desistance from terrorism, this study uses newly available data from the Global Terrorism Database to analyze the terrorist activity of 557 organizations that were active for at least 365 days between 1970 and 2008. Much like research on conventional crime, prior research on terrorism has focused almost exclusively on the onset of criminal behavior and has neglected determinants of declining activity. Here I use group-based trajectory models to investigate patterns of decline in organization-level terrorist activity. In particular I examine how patterns of onset relate to patterns of decline among these organizations. I first estimate the trajectory models for the organizations’ frequency of attacks, and then calculate the annual ratio of attacks to attacks-at-peak for each organization in order to isolate patterns of decline, independent of the magnitude of activity. I then repeat the trajectory analysis to determine if the relative shape of the organizational trajectory has significance beyond the overall frequency of attacks. I find that the speed and magnitude of an organization’s emergence are correlated with its longevity such that those organizations characterized by rapid onset are two to three times more likely than those characterized by moderate onset to reach moderate or high levels of attacks per year. Likewise, as the rate and overall volume of attacks at onset increase, so does the likelihood that the group will follow a persistent pattern of decline. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of patterns of decline among terrorist organizations for research and policy.     

Cross-Classified Multilevel Models: An Application to the Criminal Case Processing of Indicted Terrorists

This study provides an application of cross-classified multilevel models to the study of early case processing outcomes for suspected terrorists in U.S. federal district courts. Because suspected terrorists are simultaneously nested within terrorist organizations and criminal court environments, they are characterized by overlapping data hierarchies that involve cross-nested ecological contexts. Cross-classified models provide a useful but underutilized approach for analyzing such data. Using the American Terrorism Study (ATS), this research examines case dismissals, trial adjudications and criminal convictions for a sample of 574 terrorist suspects. Findings indicate that diverse factors affect case processing outcomes, including legal factors such as the number of counts, number of co-defendants, and statute of indictment, extralegal factors such as the ethnicity of the offender, and incident characteristics such as the type of terrorism target. Case processing outcomes also vary significantly across both terrorist groups and criminal courts and are partially explained by select group and court characteristics including the type of terrorist organization and the terrorism trial rate of the court. Results are discussed vis-à-vis contemporary research on terrorism punishments and future directions are suggested for additional applications of cross-classified models in criminological research.     

试析当前“东突”暴力恐怖犯罪的新特点及其防范对策

我国当前面临最大的恐怖主义威胁是具有恐怖主义、宗教极端主义及民族分裂主义特征的“三股势力”,影响新疆社会稳定的因素主要是“东突”等恐怖组织策动的以民族分裂为宗旨的暴力恐怖犯罪活动.暴力恐怖犯罪危害极大,反恐防暴斗争形势十分严峻,打击和遏制新疆地区暴力恐怖犯罪活动,是一项长期而艰巨的任务.本文着重阐述“东突”暴力恐怖犯罪的新特点,分析其发展态势,并在此基础上提出防范此类暴力恐怖犯罪的对策.     

我国面临的国际恐怖犯罪现状与应对策略

国际恐怖主义犯罪是威胁当今国际社会安全的非传统安全因素,近年来,国际恐怖组织、个人,以及境内外“东突”恐怖势力、“藏独”恐怖势力、邪教恐怖势力,尤其是境内外“东突”及“藏独”势力的恐怖主义犯罪已经对我国构成了现实威胁。针对威胁,公安机关应积极推动我国反恐立法,完善反恐工作机制,参与国际反恐合作,重视情报、舆论引导和群众工作,加强安全防范和预案演练,以有效遏制和消除国际恐怖主义犯罪。     

The Media’s Coverage of Domestic Terrorism

Scholarly interest in terrorism has grown dramatically since September 11. One important line of inquiry within this body of research has been the media’s coverage of terrorism. Although there have been several important studies published on this topic, there has been little research examining media coverage of domestic terrorism. This study fills this gap by examining the media’s coverage of terrorism in the United States from 1980 until September 10, 2001. The analysis is based on a list of terrorist‐related incidents and New York Times articles pertaining to each incident. This study documents the amount and type of coverage received by domestic terrorism incidents, and identifies the variables influencing whether an incident is covered and how much space it receives. The results indicate that most terrorism incidents receive little or no coverage in the news, but a few cases are sensationalized in the press. There are several characteristics that consistently explain which incidents are covered and receive substantial news space. Incidents with casualties, linked to domestic terrorist groups, targeting airlines, or when hijacking is used as a tactic are significantly more likely to be covered and have more articles and words written about them. This study concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings for the understanding of terrorism as a social problem.