The risks and benefits of searching for incidental findings in MRI research scans.

We weigh the presumed benefits of routinely searching all research scans for incidental findings (IFs) against its substantial risks, including false-positive and false-negative findings, and the possibility of triggering unnecessary, costly evaluations and perhaps harmful treatments. We argue that routinely searching for IFs may not maximize benefits and minimize risks to participants.     

LOW SELF‐CONTROL,ROUTINE ACTIVITIES,AND FRAUD VICTIMIZATION*

Recent research has used both routine activity/lifestyle frameworks and self‐control theory to explain victimization. Thus far, combined tests of these theories have focused on offending populations and street crime victimization. Whether these frameworks also explain exposure to and likelihood of nonviolent victimization (e.g., fraud) in general‐population samples remains an open empirical question. Building on prior work, we assess the independent effects of routine consumer activities (i.e., remote purchasing) and low self‐control on the likelihood of fraud targeting and victimization. Using a representative sample of 922 adults from a statewide survey in Florida, the results confirm our expectation that remote‐purchasing activities increase consumers' risk of being targeted for fraud. Low self‐control has no effect on whether consumers are targeted, but it does significantly increase the likelihood of fraud victimization.     

Species identification of Papaver by metabolite profiling

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.     

The Accuracy of Public Beliefs about Crime Further Evidence

Criminologists largely agree that public beliefs about crime are inaccurate, and some seem willing to abandon crime reduction as a policy goal in favor of strategies which directly affect public perceptions of crime. Yet direct tests of the accuracy of public beliefs about crime are rare. In a sample survey of Tucson adults, respondents were asked to estimate the percentage of Tucson juveniles who had committed each of fifteen offenses (i.e., the categorical rates of the offenses) and the offender sex ratio for each offense. Responses were compared with self-reported data from students in three Tucson high schools. Among the fifteen offenses there is remarkable agreement between the perceived categorical rates, sex ratios, and the self-reported figures. Taken in conjunction with earlier studies, these findings suggest that strategies designed to reduce the social consequences of crime by altering public beliefs about crime are unlikely to succeed unless they are accompanied by true reductions in the crime rate.     

Spreading Influence Through Weak Ties: Cosponsorship,Legislative Networks,and Bill Success in Fragmented Congresses

Literature on legislative success tends to focus on independent variables of which lawmakers have scarce control. This article analyzes instead how legislators’ strategies affect their success in Congress. I posit that while weak ties between congresspeople are the most useful in increasing success in the chamber of origin under majoritarian settings, they do not raise the likelihood of bill approval in the second chamber or in plurality‐led legislatures. Building on a data set that contains all bills proposed to the Argentine Congress between 1983 and 2007, results support these context‐dependence hypotheses. I then use data from the Uruguayan Congress (1995–2010) to explore how the argument plays out in a Latin American legislature with weaker gatekeeping rules (i.e., an “open sky” legislature). Findings help gain insight into the strategies used in environments different from that of the widely studied U.S. Congress.     

多系统联合分析应用于复杂亲缘关系鉴定

目的探讨多种检测系统用于祖孙、同胞等复杂亲缘关系鉴定的效能。方法采用常染色体、性染色体STR检测系统以及常染色体STR基因座累计状态一致性评分方法筛选符合要求的参照样本,分析复杂亲缘关系鉴定中缺失被鉴定人的等位基因,对无法重建的＂空白＂等位基因,以最不利于＂认定亲缘关系＂的假设取概率值计算似然率。结果在一复杂亲缘关系鉴定案例中,从8个声称的全同胞中筛选出5个符合同父同母遗传条件的全同胞作为参照样本用于重建缺失被鉴定人等位基因,重建的父母相关基因型符合作为被检女孩亲生祖父母的遗传基因条件,祖孙亲缘关系似然率为1483659.96。结论在复杂亲缘关系鉴定中联合协同应用常染色体STR基因分型、性染色体STR基因分型、生物学全同胞关系累计状态一致性评分标准等多种分析系统有利于获得更接近真实的案件结论。     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

Further Validation of the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) Trial 1 Performance Validity Index: Examination of False Positives and Convergent Validity

Assessment of performance validity is an essential part of a neuropsychological evaluation, with the inclusion of two or more performance validity tests (PVTs) becoming routine practice. Considering the time to administer multiple tests, there has been some support for use of the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) Trial 1 (T1) as an independent, “one and done” PVT. Notably, cutoffs for TOMM T1 need further validation, with an emphasis on minimizing false-positive classifications among those with bona fide cognitive impairment. In a clinically referred sample of 127 veterans, this study examined the role of cognitive impairment in TOMM performance and the utility of a TOMM T1 as an independent PVT. Examinees were administered the TOMM and three additional PVTs as part of a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. Sixty-eight percent of examinees were classified valid (35% of valid examinees were cognitively impaired). TOMM T1?≤?40 had excellent observed sensitivity (83%) and specificity (93%) overall, with minimal false-positive classification. TOMM T1 was also significantly correlated and concordant with other memory-based PVTs. Given score ranges and failure rates for TOMM T1?≤?40 among those with neurological/neurocognitive conditions, scores in the 37–40 range may merit administration of additional TOMM trials to maximize accuracy in identifying valid-cognitively impaired versus noncredible performance. Otherwise, an abbreviated TOMM administration (i.e., only T1) using a cutoff of ≤?40—in conjunction with one or more additional PVTs—may be sufficient for detecting noncredible/invalid test performance in the absence of known or suspected neurological/neurocognitive disorders.     

The Effect of Local Life Circumstances on Victimization of Drug‐Involved Women

While numerous studies have examined female victimization in the general population, fewer studies have focused specifically on high‐risk populations such as drug‐involved females. Of the existing literature, the Lifestyle Exposure and/or Routine Activities theory is frequently used to examine the antecedent conditions and correlates of female victimization. This study employs a dynamic modeling approach to examine the effect of short‐term change (i.e., monthly) in local life circumstances on female victimization within a criminogenic population. Results demonstrated that risk of victimization increased in months a woman was in a relationship, lived with a significant other and/or her children, engaged in criminogenic behavior, or lived in an transitory situation. Contrary to traditional theoretical expectations, conventional employment did not reduce a women’s likelihood of victimization.     

Two or three contributors of DNA mixtures? – Some practical considerations

The number of contributors is hard to determine in DNA mixture profiles. Here, we deal with the special but frequent case that either two or three contributors are possible. In fact, it might happen that two contributors can explain the number of alleles seen but that three contributors are necessary if a specific person of interest is to be included in the mixture. Then the likelihood ratio assuming two contributors will be zero while the likelihood ratio for three contributors may be large. We evaluate this situation and offer suggestions on how to arrive at an overall likelihood ratio. To exemplify our line of reasoning we use an example proposed by Biedermann, Taroni and Thompson.     

Predictive Efficacy and the Preventive Detention of Dangerous Sexual Offenders: Contributions from Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory

Behavioral scientists are regularly summoned by the legal system to make predictions about the likelihood of future dangerous behavior (i.e., violence prediction/risk assessment). In recent years, such efforts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny as, despite the evolution of risk assessment instruments, social scientists have yet to demonstrate the ability to predict violence with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Yet concerns with predictive efficacy may be rooted in the limitations of prediction itself. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory (i.e., chaos theory) and quantum physics jointly paint a picture of human behavior as fundamentally unpredictable; in their light, we are asked to question whether future violence can ever be predicted with a tolerable level of error. In this article, I provisionally explore this very issue, particularly as it appears in the context of decisions concerning the disposition of criminal sexual offenders.     

Assessment of forensic findings when alternative explanations have different likelihoods—“Blame-the-brother”-syndrome

Assessment of forensic findings with likelihood ratios is for several cases straightforward, but there are a number of situations where contemplation of the alternative explanation to the evidence needs consideration, in particular when it comes to the reporting of the evidentiary strength. The likelihood ratio approach cannot be directly applied to cases where the proposition alternative to the forwarded one is a set of multiple propositions with different likelihoods and different prior probabilities. Here we present a general framework based on the Bayes' factor as the quantitative measure of evidentiary strength from which it can be deduced whether the direct application of a likelihood ratio is reasonable or not. The framework is applied on DNA evidence in forms of an extension to previously published work. With the help of a scale of conclusions we provide a solution to the problem of communicating to the court the evidentiary strength of a DNA match when a close relative to the suspect has a non-negligible prior probability of being the source of the DNA.     

DIRECTLY INTERVENE OR CALL THE AUTHORITIES? A STUDY OF FORMS OF NEIGHBORHOOD SOCIAL CONTROL WITHIN A SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION FRAMEWORK*

Informal social control is a central concept in the contemporary social disorganization literature, and much attention has been directed at examining community characteristics related to variation in the quantity of informal social control across communities. However, considerably less attention has been paid to variation in forms of informal social control. This study examines the extent to which neighborhood characteristics are related to residents’likelihood of using two different forms of informal social control: direct informal social control (i.e., through direct intervention) and indirect informal social control (i.e., through mobilizing formal authorities). Data for this study are based on surveys of residents in 66 neighborhoods. The analysis uses hierarchical modeling to examine whether neighborhood characteristics central to contemporary social disorganization theory have similar effects on these two forms of neighborhood social control. Findings indicate that social ties increase the likelihood of direct informal social control but not indirect informal social control, whereas social cohesion and trust decreases indirect informal social control but does not have a significant effect on direct informal social control. Faith in the police is not found to affect either form of informal social control. These findings are discussed in terms of current issues in contemporary social disorganization theory.     

Evaluation of the NITV CVSA

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a commonly used voice stress analyzer, the National Institute of Truth Verification's (NITV) Computer Voice Stress Analyzer (CVSA), using a speech database containing materials recorded (i) in the laboratory, while highly controlled deceptive and shock-induced stress levels were systematically varied, and (ii) during a field procedure. Subjects were 24 each males/females (age range 18-63 years) drawn from a representative population. All held strong views on an issue and were required to make sharply derogatory statements about it. The CVSA system was then evaluated in a double-blind study using three sets of examiners: (i) two UF scientists trained/certified by NITV in CVSA operation, (ii) three experienced NITV operators provided by the manufacturer and (iii) five experimental phoneticians. The results showed that the "true positive" (or hit) rates for all examiners ranged from chance to somewhat higher levels (c. 50-65%) for all conditions and types of materials (e.g., stress vs. unstressed, truth vs. deception). However, the false-positive rate was just as high - often higher. Sensitivity statistics demonstrated that the CVSA system operated at about chance level.     

A review of major factors contributing to errors in human hair association by microscopy.

Forensic hair examiners using traditional microscopic comparison techniques cannot state with certainty, except in extremely rare cases, that a found hair originated from a particular individual. They also cannot provide a statistical likelihood that a hair came from a certain individual and not another. There is no data available regarding the frequency of a specific microscopic hair characteristic (i.e., microtype) or trait in a particular population. Microtype is a term we use to describe certain internal characteristics and features expressed when observing hairs with unpolarized transmitted light. Courts seem to be sympathetic to lawyer's concerns that there are no accepted probability standards for human hair identification. Under Daubert, microscopic hair analysis testimony (or other scientific testimony) is allowed if the technique can be shown to have testability, peer review, general acceptance, and a known error rate. As with other forensic disciplines, laboratory error rate determination for a specific hair comparison case is not possible. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based typing of hair roots offer hair examiners an opportunity to begin cataloging data with regard to microscopic hair association error rates. This is certainly a realistic manner in which to ascertain which hair microtypes and case circumstances repeatedly cause difficulty in association. Two cases are presented in which PCR typing revealed an incorrect inclusion in one and an incorrect exclusion in another. This paper does not suggest that such limited observations define a rate of occurrence. These cases illustrate evidentiary conditions or case circumstances which may potentially contribute to microscopic hair association errors. Issues discussed in this review paper address the potential questions an expert witness may expect in a Daubert hair analysis admissibility hearing.     

THE LABELING OF CONVICTED FELONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR RECIDIVISM*

Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for individuals who have been found guilty of a felony and are being sentenced to probation. Such individuals lose no civil rights and may lawfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. Labeling theory would predict that the receipt of a felony label could increase the likelihood of recidivism. Reconviction data for 95,919 men and women who were either adjudicated or had adjudication withheld show that those formally labeled are significantly more likely to recidivate in 2 years than those who are not. Labeling effects are stronger for women, whites, and those who reach the age of 30 years without a prior conviction. Second‐level indicators of county characteristics (e.g., crime rates or concentrated disadvantage) have no significant effect on the adjudication/recidivism relationship.     

THE MEANING OF ARREST FOR WIFE ASSAULT*

The social meaning of wife assault has changed in recent years for both citizens and formal social control agents. Research on deterrence has been partly responsible for modifying police responses to domestic violence. Police are increasingly adopting pro-arrest policies for wife assault, but little is known about perceptions held by assaulters concerning the consequences of arrest for their life circumstances. Using national survey data from samples of both assaultive and nonassaultive men, the following questions are addressed: What costs do men perceive as most likely to occur if they are arrested for wife assault? Does the perceived likelihood of these costs contribute to their overall fear (i.e., perceived severity) of arrest? To what extent is the perceived likelihood of these costs related to involvement in wife assault? Perceived costs include both direct consequences seen to result from arrest and any indirect costs for the person. Indirect consequences include stigmatic costs (e.g., familial or personal humiliation), attachment costs (e.g., damage to interpersonal relationships) or commitment costs (e.g. jeopardized investments or foreclosed opportunities). The implications of the findings for an expanded version of the deterrence doctrine are discussed.     

Reconsidering discrimination grounds in the data economy: An EU comparison of national constitutions

The principle of equal treatment (i.e., all people have the right to be treated equally) is protected by non-discrimination provisions in national constitutions across the EU as well as the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFEU). These provisions specify which grounds (e.g., gender, race, religion) are prohibited to use as the basis for making decisions on people, such as offering a person a job. In the data economy, in which large amounts of personal data are collected and analyzed, it has become possible to make decisions on people on the basis of all kinds of grounds, also grounds that are not protected in anti-discrimination law (e.g., zip code, shoe size, wealth). Even though mostly unintentional, patterns revealed by sophisticated data analysis can turn out to be discriminatory, either directly or indirectly. Particularly indirect discrimination (i.e., discrimination by proxy) can be hard to discover and enforce. From a substantive perspective, these technological developments also raise the question which discrimination grounds should be protected, since discrimination grounds are in flux and not harmonized across the EU. In this paper, through legal comparison, discrimination grounds across EU national constitutions and the CFEU are compared, to identify overlaps and differences. This overview is then used to start the discussion on the extent to which current legislation is still appropriate in the data economy or should perhaps be reconsidered.     

Identification of Opioids and Related Substances using Handheld Raman Spectrometers

This study describes the performance of handheld Raman devices for detecting one hundred opioids and related substances including fentanyl and several analogs. Using a single “parent” device, signatures (spectra) with excellent signal-to-noise ratios were generated using <5 mg of most compounds. The signatures were added to a method (library), which was electronically transferred to three “daughter” devices. The devices were able to discriminate different salt forms and isomers. On average, the daughter devices yielded a true-positive rate of 97.3% for generating an alarm for opioids and were 93.3% effective for correctly identifying the opioid. The devices yielded true-negative, false-positive and false-negative rates of 100%, 0%, and 2.7%, respectively, where false negatives were due to weak signal and fluorescence. These data demonstrate that the parent-daughter electronic transfer method was successful and effective, which permits the ability to develop methods in the laboratory that can be seamlessly pushed out to field devices.     

Deterrence and arrest ratios

In the limited research on the origins of sanction threat perceptions, researchers have focused on either the effects of actively engaging in crime or the effects of formal sanctioning but rarely on both (i.e., the arrest ratio or the number of arrests relative to the number of crimes committed). This article extends this line of research by using a sample of Colorado inmates and measures arrest ratios and sanction perceptions for eight different crime types. Analyses reveal that the offenders report both significant experiential and arrest ratio effects. Theoretical and policy implications, limitations, and directions for future research are outlined.