Time Remembered: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Interaction

Over time, states form relationships. These relationships, mosaics of past interactions, provide political leaders with information about how states are likely to behave in the future. Although intuitive, this claim holds important implications for the manner in which we construct and evaluate empirically our expectations about interstate behavior. Empirical analyses of interstate relations implicitly assume that the units of analysis are independent. Theories of interstate interaction are often cast in the absence of historical context. In this article we construct a dynamic model of interstate interaction that we believe will assist scholars in empirical and theoretical studies by incorporating a substantively interpretable historical component into their models of interstate relations. Our conceptual model includes both conflictual and cooperative components, and exhibits the basic properties of growth and decay that characterize dyadic relationships. In an empirical exposition, we derive a continuous measure of interstate conflict from the conflictual component of the model. We rely on Oneal and Russett's (1997) analysis of dyadic conflict for the period 1950–1985 as a benchmark, and examine whether the inclusion of our measure of interstate conflict significantly improves our ability to predict militarized conflict. We find empirical support for this hypothesis, indicating that our continuous measure of interstate conflict significantly augments a well-known statistical model of dyadic militarized conflict. Our findings reinforce the assertion that historical processes in interstate relationships represent substantively important elements in models of interstate behavior rather than econometric nuisances.     

Review essay: Heroic victims,the hostage memoirs

Terry Anderson, Den of Lions, London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1993. Pp.356, index. £9.99 (paperback). ISBN 0–34061736–5.

Brian Keenan, An Evil Cradling, London: Hutchinson 1992 and Vintage, 1993. Pp.296, no index. £16.99/£6.99 (paperback). ISBN 00–917–5208–6 and 0–09999030‐X.

John McCarthy and Jill Morrell, Some Other Rainbow, London: Bantam Press, 1993 and Corgi, 1994. Pp.524, 56 photos, index. £14.99. ISBN 0–593–02729–9 and 0–552–13953‐X.

Terry Waite, Taken on Trust, London: Hodder and Stoughton, 1993 and Coronet, 1994. Pp.370, 32 photos, index. £14.99 (hardback) and £5.99 (paperback). ISBN 0–0340–58196–4 and 60969–6.     

The Isolated Islamists: The Case of the Allied Democratic Forces in the Ugandan-Congolese Borderland

This study investigates the absence of substantive linkages between locally based Salafi Jihadist movements and their more transnational counterparts such as Al-Qaeda or ISIS. While studies have addressed the heterogeneity in Jihadi alliances, the question of why inter-Jihadi ties are completely absent or tenuous at times is under-theorized in the literature. Given ISIS’s recent inexorable advance through the Middle East and North Africa and its ever-growing ties with local Jihadists, it is timely to investigate under what conditions locally based militant Islamists are less likely to forge ties with global Jihadists. Using the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)—a militant Islamist group in the Ugandan-Congolese borderland—as an illustrative case study, the research sheds light on conditions under which inter-Jihadi ties are less likely. These include the extent of ideological divergence between local and global Jihadists, the degree of relevance to the local community, and the fear of attracting new enemies in the form of more stringent counter-terrorism operations.     

Addressing the Allied POW Issue in Japan: The Case of POW Research Network Japan

Since the mid-1990s the Japanese government has pursued reconciliation initiatives aimed at fostering understanding between Japan and former POWs. Nevertheless, the POW issue remains relatively unknown in Japan. This article describes the profile and activities of the POW Research Network Japan (POW kenkyūkai), a civil society group consisting of professional and shimin (citizen/non-professional) researchers as well as concerned citizens investigating the subject of Allied POWs in Japan. The article explores how POWRNJ participated in and contributed to the contestation of memory of the Asia-Pacific War (1931–1945) during the last decade. It describes the manner in which the group promoted its views and strived to achieve its goals. On the basis of these findings, the article identifies the kind of roles the group played, and how it mattered in the debates on Japan's wartime past.     

全球能源安全对话与合作--能源相互依赖时代的战略选择

随着全球化和能源相互依赖程度的日益加深,能源安全问题越来越具全球性,国际能源安全合作也逐渐由国别、集团向全球范围扩展。在这种情况下,以能源独立为目标的传统能源安全观念和保障体系变得越来越不现实。为应对诸多共同风险与挑战,国际社会越来越需要加强全球能源安全对话与合作,努力推动全球能源安全体系的建立。     

Building Capacities: The Resurgence of Indo-African Technoeconomic Cooperation

The last few years have witnessed a revival of Indo-African technoeconomic cooperation within a host of ICT-based projects aimed at promoting capacity-building. This article is an attempt at sketching out some of the most significant traits of this evolving trend based on a discussion of two landmark initiatives: the Indian Technical and Economic Co-operation scheme and the Pan-African e-Network Project. The article suggests that differences between these two projects typify key changes that have taken place in conceptualizations of cooperation. First, there was an ethico-political shift in relation to the responsibility of the state and of individual beneficiaries. Then, the spatiality of cooperation has been modified in ways that are epitomized by the image of the network and its concomitant ideal of horizontal dispersion. Finally, a dynamic has emerged in which connecting the world and igniting the pride of the nation feed into one another in innovative ways.     

The Sino-Mongolian Security Cooperation

The security situation in western China has been attracting the concern of neighboring countries.Transnational ethnic groups,Kazakhs and Mongolians,are located in western Mongolia and western China.Although Mongolia has not yet witnessed any acts of terrorism and even though the Mongolian-China border is peaceful,the two countries need to be alert to terrorist attacks,given the growing cross-border trade,direct exchanges between local governments,and communications between border residents.The two countries should therefore take note of the changes in the security situation when they cooperate with each other.     

中俄印三国能源合作背景与可行性分析

中俄印三国的人口、国内生产总值和陆地面积分别占世界40%、22·5%和44%。三国无论是政治还是经济合作,都将给世界政治和经济带来重大变化。三国的能源合作既是世界多极化和经济全球化的结果,也是三国经济发展的需要。     

中美关系:在合作与竞争中前行

奥巴马第一任期内的中美关系总体来讲还是比较平稳的,但也出现了起伏。一方面,中美之间的相互依赖不断加深,彼此需要对方的合作;另一方面,中美之间又存在着结构性的矛盾,分歧和摩擦不可避免。随着美国亚太再平衡的推进,双方加强合作的同时,中美互疑加深,博弈加剧。回顾过去四年中美关系发展的轨迹,有助于我们判断未来中美关系的走向。随着奥巴马的连任成功,未来美国对华政策的基本框架不会有根本性的改变,连续性要大于变化,未来中美关系还将是合作与竞争并存的状态。不过,未来美国对华政策的两面性会进一步凸显:在寻求对华合作的同时,美国对华的牵制和防范也在加强。中美关系的复杂性决定了中国必须以自己的两手对付美国的两手,而加强协商与沟通、妥善处理相互之间的分歧和矛盾将成为中美关系能否良性发展的关键。作为一个正在崛起的大国,中国也可以通过自身的努力为民族复兴营造更好的环境,推动中美关系的健康发展。     

上海合作组织的经济合作:成就与前景

经济合作是上海合作组织的重要基础和主要方向,经过10年的努力,上海合作组织在经济合作方面取得了许多共识与明显进展,签署了一系列合作文件,确定了经济合作的目标、原则和方式.通过各种会晤机制的实际推动以及成员国的共同努力,使得上海合作组织在推动贸易投资便利化、加快基础设施建设和经济技术合作、扩大企业间联系、培养经贸人才等方面的合作顺利进行.虽然经济合作受到成员国政府的高度重视,但也遇到了很多具体困难.由于上海合作组织奉行互利、共赢的原则,随着投入的增加,示范性项目的落实,合作领域的不断拓展,其特有的发展潜力将不断展现出来.     

The Age of Ebrahim Raisi

The Islamic Republic of Iran finds itself in an unusual paradox. It is a regime that is growing stronger in the region while weaker at home. The mullahs will stand as Persia’s most dedicated and ardent imperialists, who have implanted their influence throughout the Middle East. Iran has prolonged regional civil wars, harassed Arab potentates, and reduced the once proud Arab nation of Iraq into a vassal state. Yet, it is at home that the regime faces its most significant challenges. Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s new dogmatic and unimaginative president, is facing a depleted economy, popular protests, and massive corruption. The clerical oligarchs have no answer to Iran’s mounting problems. It remains unclear whether the regime can survive the many predicaments of its own making.     

The Power of the Chair: Formal Leadership in International Cooperation

This article addresses the influence wielded by the formal leaders of international cooperation—those state or supranational representatives that chair and direct negotiations in the major decision bodies of multilateral organizations and conferences. This is a topic that so far has received limited systematic attention by IR theorists, who have tended to treat bargaining parties as functionally and formally equivalent, leaving little theoretical space for formal leadership. Drawing on rational choice institutionalism, I introduce a theory that develops a coherent argument for the delegation of authority to the chairmanship, the power resources of negotiation chairs, and the influence of formal leaders over outcomes. I assess the explanatory power of this theory through evidence on formal leadership in three alternative organizational settings: the European Union, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/the World Trade Organization, and the United Nations environmental conferences. I find in favor of the chairmanship as a source of independent influence in international cooperation. Formal leaders perform functions of agenda management, brokerage, and representation that make it more likely for negotiations to succeed, and possess privileged resources that may enable them to steer negotiations toward the agreements they most prefer.     

Shanghai Cooperation Organization: New Areas of Cooperation in the New Era

正In June 2018,the 18th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO)was held in Qingdao,China,the first summit     

东盟-海合会经贸合作关系：现状、基础及特点

东盟与海合会之间从早期的零散经济接触发展到深入的以＂粮食换石油＂为核心内容框架、多类商品贸易为基础的经贸合作领域;在此过程之中,东盟和海合会内部分别建立了自由贸易区和共同市场,并且建立东盟-海合会自由贸易区开始成为双方的共识,新加坡-海合会自由贸易区的建立以及随之而来马来西亚的诉求可以视作渐进式推进东盟与海合会关系发展的具体步骤。不仅如此,东盟与海合会之间的制度建设也取得重大进展,双方部长级会议已经成型,互派大使也将实现。所有这些对于进一步保障东盟和海合会的安全利益有着切实的积极意义。东盟-海合会自由贸易区未来的建立将会成为全球诸多自由贸易区之间相互连接的重要一环。     

中东石油的新时代与新石油时代的中东

中东再次出现新的"石油繁荣",被称为"新石油时代"。中东油气业已形成较完整的产业链,改变了昔日单一出口原油的局面。20世纪70年代油价高涨是对在这之前国际石油垄断资本长期强加的超低油价的补偿,存在与外国资本之间的对抗;而这一次"新石油时代"则主要靠石油经济实力的支撑,随着经济的全球化,与外国资本之间的关系也已有所改变。评价高油价需扣除美元贬值的因素。20世纪"高油价—经济滞涨—石油供过于求—油价回跌"局面不会简单重复。政治仍然是影响中东油气业发展的重要因素。     

The Lonely Citizen: Indirect Representation in an Age of Networks

This article explores what it means to be represented and how the nature of representation might change in an age of networks. Citizens' perceptions of political connection and disconnection are examined on the basis of quantitative and qualitative surveys. A typology of political connection is presented and then expanded on the basis of the discussion of four potentially democratizing characteristics of digital information and communication technologies.     

中国-东盟区域货币合作初探

一、引言经济的全球化不仅给世界各国带来了难得的发展机遇,同时也给各国经济带来了巨大的风险。面对不断增加的全球性经济金融风险,各     

阿富汗在地区合作中的作用

2006年6月20日,阿富汗伊斯兰国总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊(HamidKarzai)应邀访问中国现代国际关系研究院,并就阿富汗当前形势,包括阿富汗和平与重建的成就、阿富汗如何重新融入地区与国际社会、阿富汗在地区发展与繁荣中的作用与地位,以及阿富汗的稳定对中国的具体利益何在等问题作了精彩演讲。现将卡尔扎伊总统的演讲全文刊发,以飨读者。     

中韩金融合作新思维

2009年是中韩建交的第十七年,随着中韩经贸关系的日益紧密,中韩金融合作取得了丰硕成果,但同时也存在一些问题.面对新时期新问题,中韩双方要有新思维,以加快推进中韩同的金融合作,促进两国经济的稳定发展.我们认为未来中韩两国的金融合作在合作目标上,既要立足于应对危机风险,又要重视促进共同发展;在合作基础上,要正视差异和困难,加强交流,增进互信;在合作领域上,加快推进已有合作,不断拓展新合作领域;在合作机制上,强化双边机制,加强官方合作和民间合作的互动性,共同推动多边机制的完善.