Under the gaze of the 'big nations': Refugees, rumours and the international community in Tanzania

In most academic literature refugees are portrayed either asthose who lack what national citizens have or as a threat tothe national order of things. This article explores the effectsof being excluded in such a way, and argues that Burundian refugeesin a camp in northwest Tanzania find themselves in an ambiguousposition, being excluded from the national order of things —secluded in the Tanzanian bush — while simultaneouslybeing subject to state-of-the-art humanitarian interventions— apparently bringing them closer to the internationalcommunity. The article explores the ways in which refugees in the camprelate to the international community. Ambiguous perceptionsof the international community are expressed in rumours andconspiracy theories. These conspiracy theories create a kindof ontological surety by presenting the Hutu refugees as thevictims of a grand Tutsi plot supported by ‘the big nations’.Finally, the article argues that refugees — being excludedfrom the nation-state and being subject to the government ofinternational NGOs — seek recognition from the internationalcommunity rather than any nation-state. This does not, however,destabilize the hegemony of the nation-state, as refugees perceivetheir own position as temporary and the international communityas the guarantor of a more just international order in the longrun.     

CHURCH AND STATE IN KENYA, 1986-1992: THE CHURCHES' INVOLVEMENT IN THE 'GAME OF CHANGE'1

This article examines the stages by which the Church in Kenyaoffered a primary challenge to the closed political system ofDaniel Arap Moi's regime, yet without establishing a politicalparty. More specifically, this article reviews the role of meChurch between 1986–1992 in generating and sustaininga public discourse on democracy and change in Kenya as wellas its organizational grass-root political activities priorto the holding of the first multi-party elections in 1992. Finally,it is argued that the debate between officialdom and the Church—mainlyits leading clergy—over the very definition of politics,not only sustained the national discourse on democracy but alsospawned demands for the democratization of Church structuresthemselves. This study is neither chronological nor purely narrative. Ratherit is structured around three central foci: first the Churches'critique of the structure of power in Kenya—a structurewhose core was the one-party system; second their involvementin local or sproadic controversies and upheavals; and thirdtheir active political involvement and information-disseminationcampaign prior to the 1992 elections.     

The geography of regime survival: Abacha's Nigeria

This article examines the state-creation process in Nigeriain the context of military regime survival in the 1990s. Nigeriaentered a period of protracted political crisis following theannulment of the 12 June 1993 presidential election and theentrenchment of the Abacha military government. The southwest,or Yorubaland,was the hotbed of opposition to continued militaryrule. This research shows how the Abacha government utilizedthe neo-colonial strategy of ‘divide and survive’to fragment opposition in Yorubaland, and how the governmentdivided regional opposition both socially and spatially. A localcoalition of Ekiti elites chose statehood over solidarity withtheir fellow Yorubas opposing Abacha, particularly those alignedwith Afenifere and the Oduduwa People’s Congress. Newstate movements — like that for Ekiti State — promotedmore local identities at the expense of pan-Yoruba solidarityand unified opposition to the regime. The article is based onsix months of fieldwork in Nigeria in 2002, including a casestudy of the movement for the creation of Ekiti State. Overall,it seeks to contribute to our understanding of the geographyof regime survival.     

THE MWANZA TRIAL AS A SEARCH FOR A USABLE MALAWIAN POLITICAL PAST

The main thesis of this papier is that nations need memoriesand that there is in many contemporary African states a needto create a memory of the period between independence and thereintroduction of multipartyism. That process often takes theform of inquests into human rights abuses which can result intrials. The trial in Malawi of six people—including theformer president Kamuzu Banda and his most loyal follower J.Z.U.Tembo—on the accusation of conspiring to murder four politiciansin 1983 and to destroy relevant evidence is an example. Thisarticle discusses how the reactions of the present ruling party(UDF) and government and the previous ruling party (MCP) andtheir leadership to this trial differ. The trial is seen asa struggle about the interpretation of the past which is putin the context of the actual events in 1983 as these came outin the trial. The fundamental question which arose is whetherresponsibility for whatever happened in Malawi in that periodcan squarely be put in the hands of a trimuvirate which wasin total control of what happened or whether decision making—includingthose concerning human rights abuses—was much more diffusedthroughout society. The first version of events lacks evidenceto substantiate it. The result of the trial was therefore anacquittal which was held up in an appeal by the state. The secondversion portrays Kamuzu Banda as a leader who could be deceivedby his environment, which is at variance with the way many Malawians,not exclusively MCP supporters, saw his role.     

WINNING COALITIONS AND ETHNO-REGIONAL POLITICS: THE FAILURE OF THE OPPOSITION IN THE 1990 AND 1995 ELECTIONS IN COTE D'IVOIRE

Why is that former dominant or single party regimes, especiallythose in Africa, have generally survived and even emerged strengthenedafter the introduction of multi-party competitive elections?In Côte d'lvoire since 1990 the ruling party has beenable to win elections by using incumbency to present itselfas the organization most likely to be capable of putting togethera winning coalition. In a society segmented by a multiplicityof cultural and religious divisions and where political poweris a zero-sum game, the logic of democratic representation meansthat no group can afford to be excluded. Yet in the 1990 and1995 Ivorian elections .the opposition attacked die ethnic characterof the government and deliberately mobilized ethnic minorities,regional and religious (Islamic) sentiments. They thereforefailed to escape, in electoral terms, from their extremely localizedstrongholds. Their attempt to mobilize around an anti-foreignerplatform in 1990 rebounded in 1995 when the government itselftook over their ‘ultra-nationalist’ stance by excludingnon-Ivorians from the elections. The consequent exclusion ofthe opposition's favoured Presidential candidate and the failureof the opposition alliance to agree on a non-northern, non-Islamicalternative candidate led to a violent boycott and the eventualcollapse of the opposition alliance.     

THE LEBANESE COMMUNITIES OF COTE D'IVOIRE

The Lebanese diaspora in Côte d'Ivoire is divided intotwo distinct communities: the established families, or durables,which have been in the country for two or three generations,and the relative newcomers, or nouveaux, who have arrived inthe country in the last two decades and have little or no connectionto the durables. Because of these divisions, and because oftheir status as a visible minority, the Lebanese have been politicallyand socially marginalized. They remain vulnerable to politicalpressure and manipulation, and find themselves unable—andunwilling— to assimilate to Ivoirian society. This studyprovides extensive factual information about this vital minorityliving and working in an import ant West African country. Moresignificantly, it provides insights into the ability of Africanpolitical leaders to manipulate and control an entrepreneurialgroup of some consequence. Finally, it illustrates some of thedifficulties of assimilation in a modern African social context,pointing out, in particular, that assimilation is a reciprocalprocess.     

THE URGENCY OF LAND AND AGRARIAN REFORM IN RWANDA

The challenges which lie ahead for post-genocide Rwanda's economic,social and political development are closely related throughthe issue of land. The pressure from a high rate of populationgrowth, added to the paucity of economic opportunities outsidethe agricultural sector, is forcing people off the land andinto poverty. Society is under extreme stress. Over the lastdecade the fabric of Rwandan society has been torn, resultingin ethnic and social divisions which culminpted in the eventsof 1994. Since then, new groups have entered the competitionfor land. Decisions concerning land and agrarian reform willunavoidably benefit some groups within this fragmented societywhile disadvantaging others. This article approaches the landproblem from two perspectives: first, by situating its socio-economicdimension in a deeper historical context and second, by consideringit as a specifically contemporary socio-political problem. Thearticle discusses the latest proposals for land and agrarianreform. While pressure on land has, over time, weakened socialbonds, it remains doubtful whether the government has the politicalstrength—in the present unstable national and regionalpolitical climate—to carry out the necessary reinforcementof communal bonds which economic development appears to require.     

From distrust to mutual interests?: Emerging cooperation in Northeast Asia

In Northeast Asia, historical legacies, a lack of common identity and great power politics impeded political cooperation and economic integration. However, China, Japan and South Korea have exhibited a growing interest in political and economic cooperation since the late 1990s. This article examines how the three Northeast Asian countries have developed political and economic cooperation by using the concept of ‘multilayered intergovernmentalism’. It argues that despite political tensions between China and Japan, regional cooperation among China, Japan and South Korea has been promoted by talks and bargains among the heads of state and government who strengthened incentives for closer cooperation. Moreover, multilayered frameworks formed at the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) level, through the Track II mechanisms, and in issue-specific areas have provided valuable input into advancing regional cooperation initiatives. Whereas the APT framework offered incentives and opportunities to exchange views and information for closer trilateral cooperation, the outcomes of the research at the Track II were incorporated into the leaders' cooperative initiatives. The existence of issue-specific frameworks stirred talks and negotiations at the summit level.     

COMMENTARY: MAURITTUS--QUO VADIS?

Mauritius—although situated in the Indian Ocean—hasoften been accounted one of Africa's economic success storiesover the last 15 years. Certainly by comparison with many Africancountries, as well as with other island-states such as thoseof the Caribbean and South Pacific, Mauritius has witnessedimpressive economic growth over that period. Its performanceis less remarkable, however, if it is compared with that ofother island city-states like Hong Kong or Singapore. Thereare many indications that the conditions which sustained Mauritius'seconomic success between 1982 and 1998 are no longer so favourable.This article considers this state of affairs and makes a numberof suggestions as to ways in which Mauritians may consider reactingto the international environment with a view to ensuring a futurebased on further economic growth.     

PAX SYRIANA: THE STAYING POWER OF BASHAR AL ASSAD

The staying power of Bashar al Assad and the ability of his state to outplay their regional and international enemies have come as a surprise to many. Rather than just the Russians and Iranians being responsible for this there was a coherent strategy to win back not just the territory but also the alliances that it temporarily lost during the course of this war. And unlike Saddam after the first gulf war, Bashar al Assad is already remerging fast as a regional player again. Veteran diplomats such as Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski had cautioned against a fight against Assad, so had seasoned academics such as David Lesch and Patrick Seale. Whilst many experts had predicted the fall of Assad within weeks in 2011 a careful reading of the Lebanese war and Syrian regional policy would act as the best guide to answer how Assad has managed to stay in power despite all the odds. A combination of his father's legacy and regional alliances has helped him a great deal. The ethnic and sectarian fault lines of Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Palestine have all contributed to his success including receiving support from virtually all stake holders of relevant neighbours such as the Shia and Christian of Lebanon, the Palestinian factions, the Alevi and Arabs of Turkey, the Sunni or Iraq. An ability to divide his opponents both on the battlefield and diplomatic table was the main factor that turned the tide in favour of Assad along with the obvious military support from Russia and Iran, but also by key Arab states such as Egypt and Algeria.     

Performing ethnic relations in Russia's North Caucasus: regional spectacles in Stavropol’ krai

Using materials gathered during fieldwork carried out in Russia in 2008 and 2009, this paper examines the ‘Day of Stavropol’ krai 2009’ celebration and links it to debates on ethnic relations, identity and nationalism in post-Soviet Russia. It is argued that celebrations, festivals, parades and other ‘spectacles’ are significant, yet often overlooked, influences on ethnic relations. Although authorities at national and regional scale play a prominent role in governing ethnic relations, it is often the case that they revert to Soviet-era practices – such as the ‘folklorization’ of ethnic groups – and produce a narrative that proclaims the ‘eternal harmony’ of ethnic relations. Given widespread ethnic tensions that exist in Russia, such a representation of ethnic relations is far from the reality lived by people in everyday life. Thus, this paper explores how citizens' understandings of ethnic relations relates to that portrayed by state authorities.     

Ethnic diversity and development in Kenya: limitations of ethnicity as a category of analysis

This paper challenges the relevance of ethnic diversity in explaining the development impasse in Africa, using Kenya as a case study and arguing that the neopatrimonial and ethnic diversity theses are contradictory as explanatory variables of Africa's development crisis. The former speaks to homogeneity while the latter implies heterogeneity in the public policy process. This paper singles out the ethnic diversity thesis as the weaker of the two, arguing that ethnic groups lack a collective ethnic agenda that can be flagged as consequential for the political economy of the polity. Ethnic group intervention in the political arena is not determined by innate ethnic characteristics: it is due to the tendency for certain actors in the body politic to exploit institutional failure. With proper institutions, the assumed burden of ethnicity in African development would naturally evaporate. Focusing on supposedly ethnic problems is the wrong target.     

Popular music, popular politics: Unbwogable and the idioms of freedom in Kenyan popular music

This article details how Gidi Gidi Maji Maji's popular songUnbwogable moved to occupy centre-stage in the political arenaof Kenya's December 2002 general election. The first part ofthe article deals with the politics of the song's production,its entry into the public domain and the politics of interpretationthat influenced the patterns of its consumption. The secondpart is a nuanced reading of the text — the lyrics —dramatizing the shared experiences, memories and socio-economicimmobility that distilled into the Kenyan people's common voiceof defiance and determination to institute change. The thirdpart emphasizes the contingency of events that culminated inthe National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) appropriating Unbwogable,thus completing its movement from popular song to national popularculture event and, ultimately, to political discourse. Afterthe elections this discourse of resistance and invincibilitywas rewritten to include victory and it is precisely in thisclose association with the state that the slogan has run thedanger of being colonized by a privileged few at the expenseof the majority. The article concludes by underlining the elasticityof idiom.     

The Elephant, Umbrella, and Quarrelling Cocks: Disaggregating Partisanship in Ghana's Fourth Republic

Within the literature on Ghanaian partisanship, a healthy debatehas arisen between those viewing Ghana’s two dominantparties as cleaved along socioeconomic lines and those suggestingthat this cleavage runs along ethnic lines. Using election results,constituency maps, census data, and a survey of voters’‘cognitive shortcuts’, this article weighs in withthe debate. The findings suggest that ethnicity matters in Ghanaianelections far more than socioeconomic variables. The findingsdo not, however, lead easily towards the gloomy predictionsthat often accompany ethnic politics. The relationship betweenethnicity and partisanship in Ghana is far more complex. Datapresented here suggest that Asante and Ewe voters are likelyto vote for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and National DemocraticCongress (NDC), respectively, regardless of the candidates theyselect. Voters of other ethnic backgrounds, who make up thevast majority of Ghanaian voters, view the dominant partiesas representative of Asante and Ewe interests but do not themselvesvote as a block and base their evaluations of the ‘Asante’and ‘Ewe’ parties ultimately on things other thanethnicity. It is this latter group of voters that makes Ghanaianelections unpredictable and discourages politicians from turningnational votes into a zero-sum ethnic censes.     

The politics of ownership: Tanzanian coffee policy in the age of liberal reformism

In the last two decades, the twin processes of liberalizationand privatization have facilitated the ‘capturing’of key markets and assets by foreign interests in many Africancountries. This is being increasingly perceived in domesticconstituencies as a loss of national ownership and has promptedattempts by the state to defend the interests of ‘local’firms and businesspeople. These actions have often been portrayedin the literature as manoeuvres that — in the guise ofnationalism — are ultimately characterized by clientelisticand rent-seeking objectives. The analysis of coffee politicsand policy in Tanzania carried out in this article challengesthis interpretation. It shows that practices affecting the perceived(il)legitimacy of ‘foreign’ ownership of assetsand control of markets constitute elements of a ‘politicsof ownership’. This politics, although often sportingantiliberal features, does not question the essential natureof market reforms. Rather, it seeks to undermine the dominationof ‘foreign’ interests in key industries throughthe redefinition of the parameters of competition to the advantageof local actors.     

Developing China’s Hainan into an International Tourism Destination: How Far Can This Go?

The Chinese central government has identified tourism as an important means of stimulating domestic consumption and transforming China’s economic development pattern from investment and export-driven to consumption-led. According to the government’s new plan released in 2009, development of Hainan as an International Tourism Destination has been upgraded to a national strategy. By critically discussing the western theories on the policy-making process, this paper intends to adopt the case study of Hainan to specifically analyze its state-initiated plan for regional tourism development. Hainan is the only province in China to clearly be identified by the government for the development of its tourism into a mainstay industry. It is intended to become a test zone for China’s tourism reform and innovation and take a lead in development of tourism and associated industries. The government believes that the tourism sector is a key means of boosting regional economic development and reducing regional disparities between Hainan and the prosperous eastern provinces. Nevertheless, Hainan still faces serious obstacles to its goal of becoming a top Asia Pacific holiday destination. A lack of skilled personnel, backward transport network and poor service standards in tourism and hospitality are persistent and pressing issues. The plan for developing Hainan into an international tourism destination is unlikely to become a reality in the near future.     

Reassessing the power of regional security providers: the case of Algeria and Morocco

Abstract

The concept of power and the ways to measure it are central to the literature on regional security providers. The predominant model has power rooted in material capabilities. This article recognizes that such capabilities are important but contends that for a state to be become a regional security provider, it must meet certain preconditions, foremost amongst them: possession of necessary material and ideational capacity; judicious employment of such power resources; and regional recognition of its leadership. Obvious as it may sound, effective leadership is also heavily contingent upon the domestic performance of regional powers. In this regard, the choice of Algeria and Morocco provides an interesting comparative case to broaden the traditional determinants of how to categorize regional security providers. Surprisingly, Morocco has been neglected in studies on regional security in the Maghreb and Sahel despite its rising ideational and economic influence in the region. Even Algeria has seen few studies use an integral approach to analyze its roles, orientations and performance as a regional security provider.     

ERRATA

The Editors regret that the following mistakes occurred in thetext of the article ‘The Great West African Drought, 1972–74’,by Jonathan Derrick, which appeared in the October 1977 numberof the journal. The main reason for these mistakes was a breakdownin communications between the editors and the author, whilethe article was being processed for publication. P. 540—line 36: The word ‘population’ shouldbe inserted after ‘West-Indian style’. P. 543—line 33: ‘1969–70’ should read‘1970–71’. P. 544—line 34: ‘Ivory Coast’ should read‘Upper Volta’. P. 546, Table: The Maiduguri figures are incorrect and shouldbe ignored (The author apologizes to the source of the statisticsfor this misquotation). P. 548—line 12: ‘eruption’ should read ‘irruption’. P. 564—note 69 refers to the sentence ‘In fact ...for tax’, not to the preceding sentence. P. 569—note 87: ‘Protection’ should be ‘Production’. P. 571—note 94 should be deleted. P. 582—line 34: ‘affected’ should be ‘effective’.