Parties and Electoral Performance in the Market for Political Consultants

We investigate whether the hiring relationships of candidates and political consulting firms better resembles the predictions of the “adversarial” or “allied” models of consultant‐party interaction. We find that the highest‐quality consultants are not allocated to the most competitive races, consultant‐candidate relationships persist even as candidates' electoral prospects change, and firms who work for challengers face a higher risk of market exit than firms working for incumbents. The market focuses entirely on win‐loss records and ignores the information on consultant performance available in candidates' vote shares. These findings depict a market driven by individual candidate, rather than aggregate party, goals.     

The Use of Party Brand Labels in Congressional Election Campaigns

In spite of the centrality of partisanship to many theories of lawmaking, and the important role that party cues play in shaping voters' evaluations of political candidates, remarkably little is known about the circumstances under which congressional candidates use partisan symbols on the campaign trail. Employing data on candidates' televised advertisements over six elections (1998–2008), the present study explores the “supply side” of partisan cues and finds that candidates are strategic about their use of party symbols. And while personal and district‐level factors influence how candidates utilize partisan rhetoric, we show that the institutional context in which they campaign also matters.     

Testing Spatial Models of Elections: The Influence of Voters and Elites on Candidate Issue Positions

This research tests spatial models of electoral competition using survey data on state legislative candidates' policy positions and ideology in eight U.S. states. Our data support several hypotheses: 1) candidates' issue positions do not converge; 2) party elites have more extreme positions than do candidates; 3) candidate issue positioning is a function of party‐elite issue positions and union involvement in the campaign, as well as constituency characteristics; and 4) when candidates rely heavily on elite resources during their campaign, elites become more important in shaping candidate issue positions.     

How the Party Can Win in Personal Vote Systems: The “Selectoral Connection” and Legislative Voting in Lithuania

Electoral rules can motivate politicians to cultivate a “personal vote” through their legislative voting records. However, I argue that candidate‐selection procedures have the ability to overpower these electoral incentives. This study—the first systematic study of how candidate selection and electoral rules interact—takes advantage of Lithuania's unique mixed electoral rules and fortuitous candidate‐selection procedures. Regardless of electoral rules, MPs whose future careers depend on getting renominated by central party leaders vote against the party less than those whose careers do not. This evidence of a “selectoral connection” suggests candidate‐selection procedures must be studied much more seriously.     

Unintended Consequences: Anticipation of General Election Outcomes And Primary Election Divisiveness

This article offers the first theory to explain the relationship between primary election divisiveness and general election outcomes that is grounded in candidates' own behavior. Conventional wisdom holds that divisive primaries cause candidates to do poorly in general elections. I show that primary divisiveness does not cause this or any other pattern of general election results. Rather, expectations about general election results cause primaries to be divisive. Non‐incumbents enter races they think they can win, and they think they can win where the incumbent is vulnerable. More candidates enter those races than others, splitting the vote among them. This stampede creates divisive primaries in which incumbents are most likely to do poorly, and challengers well, in the general elections. As a result, divisiveness is associated with (but does not cause) better general election performances among challengers and worse performances among incumbents. In this manner, primary divisiveness is an unintended consequence of behavior directed towards the goal of winning the general election. I tested these propositions using data from major‐party House primaries between 1976 and 1998 and found that (a) candidate expectations of victory determine when and where divisive primary elections occur, (b) those expectations drive the correlation between primary divisiveness and general election results, and (c) primary divisiveness correlates with incumbents doing poorly, and challengers well, in general elections.     

Change blindness can cause mistaken eyewitness identification

The current study investigated the effects of change blindness and crime severity on eyewitness identification accuracy. This research, involving 717 subjects, examined change blindness during a simulated criminal act and its effects on subjects' accuracy for identifying the perpetrator in a photospread. Subjects who viewed videos designed to induce change blindness were more likely to falsely identify the innocent actor relative to those who viewed control videos. Crime severity did not influence detection of change; however, it did have an effect on eyewitness accuracy. Subjects who viewed a more severe crime ($500 theft) made fewer errors in perpetrator identification than those who viewed a less severe crime ($5 theft). This research has theoretical implications for our understanding of change blindness and practical implications for the real‐world problem of faulty eyewitness testimony.     

Presidential Campaigning in the 2002 Congressional Elections

Theories involving coattails, surge and decline, presidential popularity, and the economy ascribe little importance to presidential efforts to influence congressional elections. Since such efforts do occur, we ask: What happens when a president campaigns for fellow partisans? We examined President George W. Bush's decisions to campaign for certain House candidates in 2002, and we assessed the effect of his visits on Republicans' electoral successes. Both the competitiveness of a race and the president's electoral self‐interest increased the likelihood of a visit on behalf of a candidate. Neither party loyalty nor presidential support in Congress had an effect. We conclude that presidential campaign visits significantly enhance candidates' electoral prospects.     

Dangerousness of civil commitment candidates

This study followed a large, statewide sample of civil commitment candidates both in and out of the hospital for 6 months following their postcourt hearings to determine their postcourt dangerousness. It objectively measures dangerousness by dividing it into five legal components of behavior: (1) type, (2) object, (3) frequency, (4) weapon/means, and (5) severity of outcome. Using data from ward charts, readmission evaluations, recommitment affidavits, and arrest and community mental health center records, it describes candidates' dangerousness in terms of those, five components and compares that dangerousness with the alleged dangerous behavior that brought them into the civil commitment process. It finds that candidates do not tend to be dangerous in the 6 months following their court hearings.     

Media-political skills,Candidate selection methods and electoral success

The analyses concentrate on the influences of the media and political skills of political actors on their electoral success. Many believe that demonstrating media skills is crucial for electoral success because it helps political actors to persuade media consumers to vote for them; but in some candidate selection methods, such as when a single leader selects the candidates, the media might not be an important factor. Therefore, the analyses take into account the interaction of media-political skills of political actors with candidate selection methods. This raises the question whether the democratisation of selection methods, now occurring in many countries, is making media-political skills more important. Multiple regression analyses show that media-political skills have a strong impact on the electoral success of 81 Israeli Members of the Knesset. They reveal a clear interaction with selection methods, and show that media-political skills have a greater impact in the more democratic methods of selection. The level of incumbents' parliamentary activity was found to have no impact at all on their electoral success in all candidate selection methods.     

Are the Policy Preferences of Relatively Poor Citizens Under-represented in the Swiss Parliament?

The principle of equal political representation can be undermined by differences in economic resources among citizens. Poor citizens are likely to hold policy preferences that differ from those of richer citizens. At the same time, their lack of resources can have as a consequence that these preferences are not taken into consideration by their representatives. Focusing on the case of the Swiss Parliament and using survey data on the opinions of citizens and MPs in the 2007–11 legislature, this study investigates whether the income of citizens systematically affects the proximity of their policy preferences with the stances of their representatives. It demonstrates that on economic issues MPs hold preferences that are generally less in favour of the state's intervention in the economy than the median citizen and that relatively poor citizens are less well represented as compared with citizens with high incomes. This remains true when taking into account only the opinions of the most knowledgeable citizens among these groups as well as when the focus is only on those who turned out to vote.     

Is Personal Vote‐Seeking Behavior Effective?

Does representatives' legislative activity have any effect on their electoral performance? A broad theoretical literature suggests so, but real‐world evidence is scarce as empirically, personal and party votes are hard to separate. In this article, we examine whether bill initiation actually helps MPs to attract preference votes under flexible list electoral systems. In these systems, voters can accept the party‐provided rank order or vote for specific candidates, which allows a clear distinction between personal and party votes. The empirical analysis uses data on bill initiation by Belgian MPs in the period 2003–2007 to explain their personal vote in the 2007 elections. We find that particularly single‐authored proposals initiated shortly before the upcoming elections are associated with a larger personal vote.     

The Effect of the Size of Voting Blocs on Incumbents' Roll‐Call Voting and the Asymmetric Polarization of Congress

Candidates face a trade‐off in the general election between taking a more‐moderate position that appeals to swing voters and a more‐extreme position that appeals to voters in the party's base. The threat of abstention by voters in the party's base if their candidate takes a position too moderate for them moves candidates to take more‐extreme positions. I discuss hypotheses regarding how this trade‐off affects candidate positioning and describe my tests of those hypotheses using data on House members in the 107th Congress and Senate members for the period 1982–2004. I then present data on how the distribution of voters in the electorate has changed over the past three decades and discuss how, in light of my empirical findings, these changes might explain the observed pattern of asymmetric polarization in Congress in recent decades.     

Do Ideological Preferences Explain Parliamentary Behaviour? Evidence from Great Britain and Canada

Are parliamentary parties cohesive because leaders successfully impose discipline on their MPs or because MPs prefer - hence support - the same policies as their leaders do? If the latter is correct, and party cohesion is produced largely by members' concordant preferences, then models that explain cohesion as a function of the disciplinary mechanisms available to parties once the MP is in Parliament (for example, the distribution of patronage or the threat of de-selection) are not useful. This article uses British and Canadian MPs' responses to candidate surveys to estimate MPs' positions on a variety of ideological dimensions and then shows that MPs' preferences on these ideological dimensions only partially explain how often they vote against their parties. Indeed, even after one controls for an MP's ideological preferences, party affiliation remains a powerful predictor of the MP's loyalty or dissent - suggesting that party discipline does, in fact, contribute to cohesion. Additional tests indicate that these results are not spurious.     

Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in U.S. House Elections

Research on candidate competition has focused on how much context matters in emergence decisions and election outcomes. If a candidate has previously held elected office, one additional consideration that may influence entry decisions is the relative degree of overlap between the candidate's current constituency and the “new” set of voters she is seeking to represent. Using GIS software, we derive a measure of the challenger's personal vote by focusing on constituency congruency between state legislative and congressional districts. Results suggest state legislators are more likely to run for a seat in the U.S. House if constituency congruency is relatively high.     

Poverty and the family-income cycle: Casual laborers in Amsterdam in the first half of the 20th century

Based on data collected from the files of the municipal poor relief institutions, the incomes of Amsterdam casual (dock) laborers and of their wives and children, poor relief, and other sources of income are plotted against their family cycles. The emerging patterns confirm results arrived at in American, British, and Belgian studies: Married women worked for wages mainly in the first period of the marriage, when the children were still too young to earn. For the same reason, families relied more on poor relief in this first period than later on. Only in the second and third periods could families rely (more or less) on their own labor due to the substantial contribution made by their children (from age 14). Wives of these casual laborers worked more for wages (often as charwomen) than did the wives of skilled laborers. Obviously, norms and rules about wives' responsibilities in the home were strong enough to prevent women from aspiring to substantial, or even lifetime jobs, although only a few families in this sample could survive on the males' incomes alone.     

Poverty and the family-income cycle: Casual laborers in Amsterdam in the first half of the 20th century

Based on data collected from the files of the municipal poor relief institutions, the incomes of Amsterdam casual (dock) laborers and of their wives and children, poor relief, and other sources of income are plotted against their family cycles. The emerging patterns confirm results arrived at in American, British, and Belgian studies: Married women worked for wages mainly in the first period of the marriage, when the children were still too young to earn. For the same reason, families relied more on poor relief in this first period than later on. Only in the second and third periods could families rely (more or less) on their own labor due to the substantial contribution made by their children (from age 14). Wives of these casual laborers worked more for wages (often as charwomen) than did the wives of skilled laborers. Obviously, norms and rules about wives' responsibilities in the home were strong enough to prevent women from aspiring to substantial, or even lifetime jobs, although only a few families in this sample could survive on the males' incomes alone.     

Consensus with respect to the fairness of incomes: Differences between social groups

This article deals with consensus on norms on how incomes in a society ought to be distributed. Functionalist theories presume consensus between almost all members of a society. Marxist theories presume at least some dissension, e.g., persons in unfavorable positions will support the achievement principle to a lesser extent and the equality and need principle to a larger measure. In 1987, a vignette study was conducted among a sample of 795 individuals representative of the Dutch population between the ages of 18 and 70. The respondents were presented with a random sample of 15 vignettes and requested to assign a fair income to the described household. A total of 11,394 fair incomes were assigned to the virgnettes. In the analysis the respondents were grouped on value patterns and income position. There was consensus on the main achievement attribute occupational prestige in assigning fair incomes. There was also some dissension discernible between different groups. However, neither of the theories was fully corroborated.     

Additional federal allotments to states for social services expenditures pursuant to the Title XX-Block Grants to States for Social Services--Office of Human Development Services, HHS

Section 2003 of the Social Security Act, as amended, authorizes $2.45 billion for allocation to the States for Social Services Block Grants--Fiscal Year 1983. Public Law 98-8, enacted March 245, 1983, appropriates an additional $225 million for Fiscal Year 1983. This notice contains State allotments and explanations of how the allotments were determined; conditions for receipt of these funds and other information.     

Attorneys,tell your clients to think before they post: Social media data may influence how evaluators view their parental fitness

Information from social media is used in evaluations of parental fitness with some regularity. Yet, research is lacking on perceptions of this information and no research has examined how social media data impacts forensic evaluators' opinions related to parental fitness. This study compared forensic evaluators' perceptions of data trustworthiness, usefulness, and initial opinion of parental fitness in a fictitious case in which parental fitness was questioned. Perceptions of a parent's behavior were compared across two types of data in which it was presented (an Instagram post or a medical record note) and across genders of the parent (mother or father) being hypothetically evaluated. As hypothesized, information documented on social media was viewed more critically than information documented by a healthcare provider. Further, information primarily referencing the father in the case was viewed as less trustworthy than information referencing the mother, which appeared influenced by evaluators' identified self-reported sexist attitudes. Results suggest that family law attorneys, regardless of which parent they are representing, should advise their clients of the risks to using social media.