The Effect of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on Revenue Volatility: Evidence from Colorado

Much of the research on tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) focuses on the impact that limits have on the size of the public sector or the distribution of expenditures at the state and local levels. While these results shed light on the extent to which TELs succeed in reducing government spending, they do not have much to say about the impact of TELs on government budgeting or financial planning, despite the fact that voters support TELs in the hope of reducing government inefficiency (Courant, Gramlich, and Rubinfeld 1980; Ladd and Wilson 1982). This paper examines the effect of TELs on the stability of government revenues; sound tax policy entails controlling the volatility of revenues in order to plan more effectively for the future. Using panel data from Colorado's Division of Local Government as well as the Census Bureau's Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, this paper examines the impact of Colorado's 1992 Taxpayer's Bill of Rights (TABOR) on local government finances. Results from difference‐in‐difference estimation suggest that TELs increase revenue and expenditure volatility.     

Economic Effects of State‐Level Tax and Expenditure Limitations

As a result of devolution, state governments have taken on greater responsibility for financing and providing public services. Increasingly, states have adopted state‐level tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) to manage the growth and size of state budgets. The adoption of TELs is supported by claims that they have a positive effect on state economies, although such claims lack empirical evidence and have been contested by several scholars. Despite the ongoing debate about validating the actual economic effects of state‐level TELs, there is a lack of empirical assessments of their effects. The empirical results of this article indicate that the presence of state‐level TELs has a negative effect on the level of employment but no effect on the state's personal income per capita. The presence of state‐level TELs has no effect on either the growth of personal income per capita or the growth of employment.     

Tax and Expenditure Limitations and State and Local Fiscal Structure: An Empirical Assessment

The tax and expenditure limitation (TEL) "movement" of the 1970s and 1980s can be characterized in part as a struggle between local autonomy and state control. Undeniable shifts have occurred over the same period in state and local revenue systems and functional responsibilities. This article places these shifts within the context of this movement, using pooled, cross-sectional, time-series techniques for the period between 1970 and 1990, in an effort to assess its impacts. Findings suggest that TELs have resulted in increased centralization, lessened local responsiveness, increased use of local non-tax sources of revenue, and a sector less accommodating to the needs of dependent populations. TELs may have also had dubious effects on both the allocative efficiency and equity of the state and local public sector.     

Tax and Expenditure Limitations and the Fiscal Response of Local Government: Asymmetric Intra-Local Fiscal Effects

This article empirically investigates the effects of introducing statewide measures to limit the ability of local jurisdictions to raise revenue or make expenditures. It does so in intervals of five years over a 25-year period, using fiscal observations for 31,804 units of local government in 787 metropolitan counties across the contiguous United States. Specifically explored is the effect of tax and expenditure limitations on the variation in revenues and expenditures between general purpose governments and school districts within county areas. Rather than imposing a uniform constraint across jurisdictions, tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) are associated with increased variation across both general purpose and school district revenues and expenditures and, by implication, increased service differentials. Effects are found to be asymmetric, with increased variation greatest within counties comprising the urban core and those with relatively more disadvantaged populations. The implications are that TELs are most constraining on the ability of governments serving economically less prosperous and at risk populations to meet public service needs. Such differential effects are of more than questionable merit and are the result of the application of blunt instruments to what is often an undemonstrated need. The outcome impairs both the efficiency and responsiveness of the local public sector.     

Constitutional Tax and Expenditure Limitation in Colorado: The Impact on Municipal Governments

Tax and expenditure limitations (TELs) have become a pervasive influence on local government fiscal affairs. Explanations for the spread of TELs suggest that voters thought local government was growing more than needed. Thus, TELs were intended to constrain growth and reduce the size of local governments. This article's purpose was to determine the impact of two separate kinds of TELs, one a property tax measure, and the other a comprehensive revenue and expenditure limit, upon the growth of municipal governments in Colorado. Using a panel data set on municipal budgets (1975–1996), the article demonstrates three major points: 1) the effectiveness of a TEL in achieving reductions in local government revenue and spending growth depends upon the nature of the TEL; 2) the comprehensive TEL did effectively constrain growth and reduce local government reliance on the property tax, despite the local options for exemption; and 3) TELs do not have uniform impacts among governments of different population.     

The limits of tax and expenditure limits: TEL implementation as a principal-agent problem

Previous scholarship has shown that Tax and Expenditure Limits (TELs) often fail to constrain government growth. This paper views the implementation of TELs as a principal-agent problem. Agency theory predicts that delegation is affected by the preferences of agents and the costs of monitoring those agents. Using panel data for the US states from 1970 through 2008, I conduct an empirical test of the validity of the principal-agent model for TELs. I find that state spending limitations are only effective at cutting the growth of state and local spending under the direction of agents who have a preference for limited government. Additionally, state property tax limitations are only effective when monitoring does not require costly coordinated action. These findings contradict an alternative theory of TEL implementation that looks towards the policy’s origin. My research suggests that the arrangements of delegation determine when and under what conditions TELs effectively reduce government growth.     

A rent-seeking model of TELs

Tax and expenditure limits or TELs are constitutional or statutory constraints on the fiscal powers of government. Since the taxpayer revolt beginning in the late 1970s, TELs have been introduced in twenty-three states. In recent years a number of studies attempting to test the impact of TELs have found little evidence that TELs significantly reduced the growth of state government. In this study we challenge the implicit Leviathan model that underlies most of these studies, and offer an alternative rent-seeking model. Econometric tests provide support for this rentseeking model, and indicate that TELs have been significant in reducing the growth of state government, at least in the short run. “... the very principle of constitutional government requires it to be assumed, that political power will be abused to promote the particular purpose of the holder; not because it always is so, but because such is the natural tendency of things, to guard against which is the especial use of free institutions”     

Predicting Organizational Actual Turnover Rates in the U.S. Federal Government

ABSTRACT

This study expands the level of analysis on turnover in public administration, especially in the U.S. federal government, from the individual level to the organizational level by using organizational actual turnover rates. Some scholars argue that public employees' turnover intention generally reflects actual turnover. However, very little empirical evidence supporting this argument has been provided in public administration, especially in a broad array of public agencies. This study has rejected this argument by showing insignificant or weakly significant correlations between organizational actual turnover and weighted turnover intention rates. In addition, overall, the two regression results for organizational actual turnover and turnover intention also show different results from those in the existing literature on individual-level turnover intention. The significant predictors of organizational actual turnover rates are goal ambiguity, pay satisfaction, and diversity policy satisfaction. The correlation and regression results imply that research on predictors of turnover may need to consider the differences that may result from using different units of analysis and to make a distinction between turnover intention and actual turnover.     

Public shelter admission rates in Philadelphia and New York City: The implications of turnover for sheltered population counts

Abstract

Previous estimates of the size and composition of the U.S. homeless population have been based on cross‐sectional survey methodologies. National enumeration efforts have yielded point‐prevalence estimates ranging from 0.11 to 0.25 percent of the population. This study reports data from shelter databases in Philadelphia and New York City that record identifiers for all persons admitted and so make possible unduplicated counts of users.

Unduplicated counts of shelter users yield annual rates for 1992 of about 1 percent for both cities and rates near 3 percent over three years in Philadelphia (1990–92) and over five years (1988–92) in New York City. The annual rates are three times greater than rates documented by point‐prevalence studies. Shelter bed turnover rates are reported, as are average monthly first admission and readmission counts over a two‐year period. Implications for future research and public policy are discussed.     

Public management and organizational performance: The effect of managerial quality

This paper presents the first large study of public management quality and its effect on program performance. Using 5 years of data from more than 1000 Texas school districts, the authors measure quality as the additional salary paid to school superintendents over and above the normal determinants of salary. This measure of managerial quality is positively correlated with 10 of 11 performance indicators covering organizational goals ranging from standardized tests to school attendance. These relationships hold even in the presence of controls for other determinants of program success. The measure has the potential to be used in tests of existing management theories, thus moving the literature beyond case studies to more systematic research involving many subjects. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy and Analysis and Management.     

Workers' compensation: coverage, benefits, and costs, 1985

The 84.3 million workers protected by workers' compensation laws in 1985 represented 87 percent of all wage and salary workers in that year. Both the amount of benefits paid to workers and the cost of the program to employers rose substantially from 1984 to 1985. Benefit payments totaled $22.5 billion-14.1 percent higher than in 1984 and the largest annual increase since 1978-79. About two-thirds of the payments in 1985 were money payments ($15.1 billion) and the remainder ($7.4 billion) went for medical care for disabled workers. Private insurance companies made nearly three-fifths of these payments and State funds and self-insured employers each paid about one-fifth of the total benefit amount in 1985. For the first time since 1978, the annual growth in employer costs exceeded the growth in workers' benefits, resulting in a slight decrease in the loss ratio for 1984-85. Employer costs were up nearly 17 percent from the previous year, reaching an estimated $29.3 billion. Covered payrolls increased by 7 percent in that same period. Total benefit payments as a percent of payroll also increased noticeably in 1985.     

Staff transfer and management in the government health sector in Balochistan,Pakistan: problems and context

Despite the existence of rigid civil service systems in many developing countries providing relative stability of public officials, staff posting and transfers are often based on short‐term political criteria. This means high staff circulation in key government posts, leading to a situation of ‘instability within stability’. This article analyses high staff circulation in the government health services in Balochistan, Pakistan. The analysis is based on literature review, a small pilot study and authors' experience in the province. The article notes that high staff turnover and, more specifically, circulation are context‐specific. Four issues are raised. Firstly, the extent of staff turnover is analysed and references are made to its frequency, the organization and cadre. Secondly, the social and political underpinning of high staff circulation is outlined: political patronage, low implementation of rules, staff preferences and public sector control. Thirdly, the problems of staff turnover are raised with specific reference to the problems of continuity, change and participation. Fourthly, the issue of solutions is raised at two levels: structural change to lessen high staff turnover, and dealing with it on a day‐to‐day managerial level. Lastly, substantive and methodological issues are raised with respect to taking the analysis further. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

美国联邦政府的宽带薪资试验及其启示

20世纪80年代以来,随着内外部环境的变化,建立在严格的职位分类基础之上的美国联邦政府传统薪资系统受到越来越多的挑战。为此,美国联邦政府开始探索适用于政府部门的新型薪资结构,宽带薪资试验就是这种尝试之一。三项宽带薪资试验对于美国政府机构乃至美国私营企业的薪资体系创新都产生了深远的影响。试验不仅揭示了宽带薪资是公共部门薪资体系的发展方向之一,而且对我国公共部门的薪资体系改革具有重要的借鉴意义。     

公务员激励机制研究--模型与实证

工资、监督与职业发展是三种主要的激励因素.在公共部门工资激励有限的情况下,职业发展的激励作用最为显著.在霍尔姆斯特罗姆(Holmstrom)和梯罗尔(Tirole)的职业发展激励模型的基础上,引进监督机制和从业热情的因素,建立了职业发展的修正模型.运用该模型分析挂职和借调的工作努力程度,指出现行干部提拔机制中存在的若干问题和发展建议.     

Comparing replacement rates under private and federal retirement systems

One measure of the adequacy of retirement income is replacement rate - the percentage of pre-retirement salary that is available to a worker in retirement. This article compares salary replacement rates for private-sector employees of medium and large private establishments with those for federal employees under the Civil Service Retirement System and the Federal Employees Retirement System. Because there is no standard benefit formula to represent the variety of formulas available in the private sector, a composite defined benefit formula was developed using the characteristics of plans summarized in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Medium and Large Employer Plan Survey. The resulting "typical" private-sector defined benefit plan, with an accompanying defined contribution plan, was then compared with the two federal systems. The Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) is a stand-alone defined benefit plan whose participants are not covered by Social Security. Until passage of the 1983 Amendments to Social Security Act, it was the only retirement plan for most federal civilian employees. Provisions of the 1983 Amendments were designed to restore long-term financial stability to the Social Security trust funds. One provision created the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS), which covers federal employees hired after 1983. It was one of the provisions designed to restore long-term financial stability to the Social Security trust funds. FERS employees contribute to and are covered by Social Security. FERS, which is a defined benefit plan, also includes a basic benefit and a 401(k)-type plan known as the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). To compare how retirees would fare under the three different retirement systems, benefits of employees retiring at age 65 with 35 years of service were calculated using hypothetical workers with steady earnings. Workers were classified according to a percentage of the average wage in the economy: low earners (45 percent), average earners (100 percent) high earners (160 percent), and maximum earners (earnings at the taxable maximum amount). Overall, this analysis found that: Excluding Social Security benefits and TSP and defined contribution annuities, CSRS retirees have a higher pre-retirement salary replacement rate than either FERS or private-sector retirees. Private-sector retirees, however, have higher replacement rate than their FERS counterparts. Including Social Security benefits but not TSP and defined contribution plan annuities, CSRS retirees who are maximum earners have a higher pre-retirement salary replacement rate (despite receiving no Social Security benefits) than FERS retirees with the same earnings. Private-sector retirees in all earnings categories have a higher replacement rate than federal retirees with the same earnings. Including Social Security and TSP and defined contribution plan annuities, private-sector retirees in all earnings categories have a higher replacement rate than federal retirees, but their rate is close to that of FERS retirees. The rate is higher for FERS retirees than for CSRS retirees in all earnings categories. This analysis shows that replacement creates could exceed 100 percent for FERS employees who contribute who contribute 6 percent of earnings to the TSP over full working career. Private-sector replacement rates were quite similar for those with both a defined benefit and a defined contribution pension plan. Social Security replacement rates make up the highest proportion of benefits for th private sector's lowest income quartile group. The replacement rate for 401(k) plans and the TSP account for a higher proportion of benefits than does Social Security for all other income groups, assuming the absence of a defined benefit plan.     

Glass Walls in State Bureaucracies: Examining the Difference Departmental Function Can Make

Occupational segregation in government employment is an important issue in public administration. Occupation determines pay and benefits, and when women have greater access to quality jobs—especially in the public sector—this promotes their economic, social, and political advancement. This research addresses two questions: (1) What changes have occurred to alter “glass walls” across departmental functions? (2) What impact does departmental function have on the salary of women? The findings reveal that although occupational segregation has decreased over the past two decades in Michigan’s bureaucracy, it is still prevalent. Gender‐based occupational segregation is linked to departmental function. Redistributive departments have much lower levels of occupational segregation than other functional categories. Mean salary is also linked to departmental mission, with distributive departments having both the highest mean salary and the highest level of occupational segregation. Salary differentials across departmental functions are becoming smaller over time. Overall, women appear to be most successful, both financially and career‐wise, in historically male‐dominated fields.     

Impact of “U.S. Veterans' Access,Choice and Accountability Act of 2014” on employee morale and work behavior: Does “creating an at‐will workplace” lead to better outcomes?

This study estimates the impact of job security rule changes on federal civilian employees' work attitudes and behavior (i.e., job satisfaction and turnover intention) by looking at recent U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)'s Veterans' Access, Choice and Accountability Act (VACAA) of 2014. The data for the analysis are derived from the 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2015 U.S. Federal Employee Viewpoint Surveys. A difference‐in‐differences quasiexperimental methodology was used to examine the effect of a job security rule change on VA employee job satisfaction and turnover intention. This study's results indicate that the overall effect of the introduction of a new job security rule at VA is a decrease of approximately 7 percentage points in employee job satisfaction and 8 percentage points in employee turnover intention, which are a substantial effect. This study contributes to both the theoretical and the empirical understanding of at‐will employment systems and public employee work morale and attitudes.     

Understanding Employee Turnover in the Public Sector: Insights from Research on Teacher Mobility

Employee turnover is a key area for public administration research, but one about which there is much still to be learned. Insights from an extensive body of research on employee turnover in a specific area of the public sector—public education—contributes to the understanding of employee mobility in public organizations more generally. The authors present a conceptual framework for understanding employee turnover that is grounded in economic theories of labor supply and demand, which have formed the foundation of many studies of teacher turnover. The main findings of this body of work are documented, noting connections to the literature on public employee turnover, lessons that can be learned, and potential new areas for empirical inquiry for scholars of turnover in the public sector.     

Can Managerial Turnover Be a Good Thing? The Impact of City Manager Change on Local Fiscal Outcomes

A long line of private sector research outlines the positive and negative impacts of employee and managerial turnover on organizations. However, public administration scholars often treat turnover as a phenomenon to be avoided and focus more on the antecedents of managerial turnover than on its consequences for public organizations. Within the context of local government, the impact of city manager turnover on organizational outcomes is unclear. This article identifies how city manager turnover influenced local fiscal outcomes during the Great Recession. Analysis of 165 council‐manager municipalities in California, more than one‐third of which experienced turnover during the height of the recession, allows for empirical examination of the impact of turnover during the test period of 2008–11 on local fiscal outcomes in 2011 and 2012, specifically the degree and incidence of budget deficit spending. The results demonstrate that managerial turnover may lead to better fiscal outcomes, conditional on how long the new manager has held the position. This suggests that while cities that hired new managers during the recession did better than those that did not, the earlier in the recession a manager was hired, the better.     

Public Health Insurance and Medical Spending: The Incidence of the ACA Medicaid Expansion

This paper examines the incidence of the cost burden associated with expanding public health insurance to low-income adults in the context of the Affordable Care Act. Using data from the Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS), I exploit exogenous variation in Medicaid eligibility rules across states, income groups and time. I find that public insurance eligibility reduced mean out-of-pocket spending by 19.6 percent among targeted households, but it did not causally increase total expenditures among beneficiaries. Rather, Medicaid expansion shifted the burden of payment from eligible households and private insurance (21.5 percent reduction) to taxpayers in the form of public insurance (46.6 percent increase). The efficiency of these public funds can be summarized by a mean Marginal Value of Public Funds of 0.70 in the full sample, 0.99 among households with at least one pre-existing condition, and 1.26 in states with an above-median number of public hospitals.