DETERRENCE Theory versus Practice

Abstract Recently, some researchers have attempted to resurrect deterrence theory. These researchers have focused on the relationship between certainty and severity of punishment and subsequent rates of crime. An inverse relationship has been found, leading these researchers to conclude that penal sanctions deter crime. This paper presents another hypothesis, namely, that increases in crime may overburden existing legal machinery, and thus cause decreases in the certainty of punishment as a result. Using the same data employed in past deterrence studies, this paper demonstrates that crime may affect certainty of punishment more strongly than certainty of punishment affects the crime rate, a finding which seriously questions the ability of legal threats as currently administered in American society to deter crime.     

THE ROLE OF CRIME IN HOUSING UNIT RACIAL/ETHNIC TRANSITION*

Previous research frequently has observed a positive cross-sectional relationship between racial/ethnic minorities and crime and generally has posited that this relationship is entirely because of the effect of minorities on neighborhood crime rates. This study posits that at least some of this relationship might be a result of the opposite effect—neighborhood crime increases the number of racial/ethnic minorities. This study employs a unique sample (the American Housing Survey neighborhood sample) focusing on housing units nested in microneighborhoods across three waves from 1985 to 1993. This format allows one to test and find that such racial/ethnic transformation occurs because of the following effects: First, White households that perceive more crime in the neighborhood or that live in microneighborhoods with more commonly perceived crime are more likely to move out of such neighborhoods. Second, Whites are significantly less likely to move into a housing unit in a microneighborhood with more commonly perceived crime. And third, African American and Latino households are more likely to move into such units.     

Deterrence and the tipping effect

Previous research has focused on certaintyznty of punishment as one. factor. upon which any dzterrent effect of punishment might be contingent and Auggested that it must reach a critical tipping level before the deterrent effect becomes evident. Using data on index crimes and clearance. rates for. Virginia cities and counties, bupport was found for both the. deterrent effect and the exlstenee of a tipping level. Attention was directed towand a more precise specification of the form of the tipping effect, suggesting that there is a single critical tipping level and that it occurs at a relatively low level of certainty of punihment.     

THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro‐level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual‐level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self‐reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty‐four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence‐based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.     

An economic analysis of the post World War II decline in the Japanese crime rate

Since the end of World War II there has been a dramatic decrease in reported Japanese crime. Adult arrest rates have fallen steadily since the early 1950s and juvenile arrest rates have fallen since the early 1960s. An economic analysis of crime predicts that crime rates depend upon returns to crime relative to returns in legal pursuits and the certainty and severity of punishment. Regression analysis is used to test this theory using Japanese data. The empirical results indicate that the economic model does not outperform alternative naive models. However, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in returns to legitimate work diminish both adult and juvenile crime. Unemployment affects some adult crimes but has little impact on juvenile crime. The share of the population in poverty has no significant impact on either type of crime. Increases in the certainty of punishment deters adult crime but there is little evidence that increases in either the certainty or the severity of punishment deter juvenile crime. There is weak evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the severity of adult punishments deter crime.     

Assessing the perceived benefits—criminal offending relationship

Deterrence theory has been a centerpiece of theoretical and empirical research in criminology. Largely due to the early work of Beccaria however, much of this research has focused on estimating the effect of the certainty of punishment, or the costs of crime, on criminal offending. Although the benefits/rewards of crime are as important as the costs, conceptualization and operationalization of this portion of the decision-making process has only recently accumulated. In an effort to provide a counterpart to the summary statements available regarding the costs of crime, this paper undertakes a statistical summary of the empirical studies that have examined the benefits/offending relationship, with specific attention paid not only to the overall relationship, but also to several key moderators. Using 40 specific estimates from 13 studies since 1990, the analysis provides evidence of a positive and significant relationship between benefits and offending, but that the overall relationship varies in several ways. Directions for future research are outlined.     

Racial Residential Segregation and Social Control: A Panel Study of the Variation in Police Strength Across U.S Cities, 1980–2010

Despite a great deal of theoretical and empirical attention given to racial residential segregation and its influence on a number of social problems in the United States, few scholars have examined the role that this persistent form of racial inequality plays in shaping the magnitude of formal social control efforts. Our study examines this relationship by assessing the potential influence that the isolation of minorities may have on efforts to control crime in urban centers across the United States. Using a pooled time-series regression technique well suited for the analysis of aggregate, longitudinal data, we assess the potential influence of racial segregation on the size of municipal police departments in 170 U.S. cities between 1980 and 2010. After accounting for minority group size, economic threat, crime, and disorganization, we find that racial residential segregation has a significant non-linear effect on police force size. Cities with the most racially integrated populations have the smallest police presence but at very high levels of segregation, police strength levels off. This finding is consistent with expectations derived from the contact hypothesis. Under such conditions, majority group members appear to be less inclined to demand greater crime control measures such as increased police protection. Period interactions with residential segregation also suggest that this relationship has grown stronger in each decade since 1980. Overall, our study provides strong support for threat theories and the contact hypothesis but offers necessary refinements.     

Trying Something Old: The Impact of Shame Sanctioning on Drunk Driving and Alcohol‐Related Traffic Safety

Largely absent from US criminal sentencing since the early 1800s, shame penalties have been staging a comeback. This revival has been met by a number of debates among legal scholars, one of which centers on the potential for such penalties to reduce crime. This study addresses this debate by investigating the impact of formal shaming on drunk driving and alcohol‐related traffic safety in Ohio. In accordance with the Traffic Law Reform Act of 2004, judges have since been mandated to issue “restricted plates” to certain first‐time and all repeat DUI offenders with limited driving privileges. Results indicate a curvilinear association between punishment levels and drunk driving. Increases in the certainty and visibility of plates are associated with decreases in suspension rates, but there is a point at which increasing the punishment level no longer retains its intended impact. In addition, levels of punishment are unrelated to alcohol‐related traffic safety.     

EXPLAINING JAPAN'S POSTWAR VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS*

Japan has long been recognized for its low rates of violent crime, rates that usually seem to be declining. The most common explanation for postwar rates links unique cultural characteristics to a system of exceptionally effective informal social controls that, at the macro level, suggest low levels of social disorganization. Other common explanations include low levels of economic stress, a small proportion of young males and a criminal justice system that delivers a high certainty of punishment. In this paper we test these four explanations for Japanese trends using both an annual time‐series national analysis (1951 to 2000) and a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis of the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1955 to 2000 (at 5‐year intervals). The results from the two analyses are largely congruent. They show that measures of economic stress, certainty of punishment and age structure are–compared to common social disorganization measures–more consistent predictors of Japanese postwar violent crime trends. Our results suggest that the remarkable strength of the postwar Japanese economy may play a larger role in explaining Japanese violent crime rates than is usually recognized.     

INTERGROUP AND INTRAGROUP VIOLENCE: IS VIOLENT CRIME AN EXPRESSION OF GROUP CONFLICT OR SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION?*

The impact of residential turnover and compositional change at the neighborhood level on local patterns of crime lies at the center of most ecological studies of crime and violence. Of particular interest is how racial and ethnic change impacts intragroup and intergroup crime. Although many studies have examined this effect using city‐level data, few have evaluated it using neighborhood‐level data. Using incident‐level data for the South Bureau Policing Area of the Los Angeles Police Department aggregated to census tracts, we use a novel methodology to construct intragroup and intergroup rates of robbery and assaults. The South Bureau has experienced dramatic demographic change as it has transitioned from a predominately African‐American area to a predominately Latino area. We find support for the social disorganization model, as racial/ethnic transition in nearby tracts leads to greater levels of intergroup violence by both groups as well as to more intragroup violence by Latinos. Such neighborhoods seem to experience a breakdown in norms, which leads to higher levels of violence in all forms. Particularly noteworthy is that intragroup crime is highest in all settings, which includes the most heterogeneous tracts. We also find support for the consolidated inequality theory, as greater inequality across the two groups leads to more violence by the disadvantaged group.     

Do perceptions of punishment vary between white-collar and street crimes?

Much has been learned about the relationship between sanction threat perceptions and criminal activity, yet little remains known about the factors that are associated with sanction threat perceptions. Moreover, because most researchers had studied deterrence within the context of street crime, even less is known about the factors that relate to sanction threat perceptions for white-collar crime. This study used data from a national probability sample to examine whether the determinants of perceived sanction certainty and severity for street crime were different from white-collar crime. Using robbery and fraud as two exemplars, the findings indicated that while public perceptions of sanction certainty and severity suggested that street criminals were more likely to be caught and be sentenced to more severe sanctions than white-collar criminals, respondent's perceptions of which type of crime should be more severely punished indicated that both robbery and fraud were equally likely to be perceived ‘on par.’ Additional results indicated that the correlates of certainty and severity were more similar than different, but that the results differed according to whether respondents were asked about the punishment that white-collar offenders were likely to receive as opposed to what they should receive.     

RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PERCEIVED NEIGHBORHOOD RACIAL COMPOSITION AND WHITES’ PERCEPTIONS OF VICTIMIZATION RISK: DO RACIAL STEREOTYPES MATTER?*

Recent theoretical extensions of threat theory have posited that Whites frequently view Blacks as a criminal threat because of stereotypes linking race and crime. Several studies have found indirect support for this hypothesis and have shown that the percentage of neighborhood residents who are Black is positively associated with the perceptions of victimization risk and fear of crime by White residents. To date, however, little research has investigated whether, as theory would suggest, this relationship is either a consequence of or is contingent on Whites holding stereotypes of Blacks as criminals. In this article, we address this issue by examining whether racial typification of crime mediates or moderates the relationships between static and dynamic measures of neighborhood racial composition and the perceptions of victimization risk by Whites. The results offer mixed support for the threat hypothesis and show that racial typification of crime conditions the relationship between perceived changes in neighborhood racial composition and the perceptions of victimization risk by Whites, but neither explains nor influences the association between static measures of racial composition and the latter. The implications of the findings for threat theory and research are discussed.     

RACIAL–ETHNIC INTOLERANCE AND SUPPORT FOR CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: A CROSS-NATIONAL COMPARISON*

This article tests cross-nationally the minority group threat thesis that public sentiments toward repressive crime-control policies reflect conflicted racial and ethnic relations. Using multiple data sets representing France, Belgium, the Netherlands, East and West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Denmark, Great Britain, Greece, Spain, Finland, Sweden, Austria, Canada, Ireland, and Portugal, we examine whether racial and ethnic intolerance—animus, resentments, or negative sentiments toward minorities—predicts greater support for the death penalty. Our results reveal that the respondents were significantly more likely to express support for capital punishment if they were racially or ethnically intolerant while controlling for other covariates of public opinion. These findings indicate that the link between support for capital punishment and racial and ethnic animus may occur universally in countries with conflicted racial and ethnic relations.     

DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF ASSAULTS MOTIVATED BY BIAS*

This research examines the ways in which assaults motivated by bias are similar to and different from other types of assault. Analyses are based on data from the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS), pooled across eleven states. We find evidence suggesting that offenders motivated by racial and ethnic bias are more likely to be versatile offenders than specialists: they are more (not less) likely to be using drugs and alcohol during the crime than conventional offenders. Bias offenders are also more likely to seriously injure the victim. Finally, we find that the risks of bias crime victimization (relative to the risk of assault victimization generally) are similar for blacks and other racial minorities.     

论对向犯的定罪处刑

行为人之间存在相互对向关系的犯罪,刑法理论都应称之为对向犯.刑法对存在相互对向关系的犯罪的规定有一定的规律,可分为同罪同刑、同罪异刑、异罪同刑、异罪异刑和只规定处罚一方行为.不同类型的对向犯的定罪处刑原则不一.在法律规定只处罚一方的对向犯中,对法律不处罚的一方的行为不能根据刑法总则关于共同犯罪的规定作共犯定罪处刑.     

Punishing Organized Crime Leaders for the Crimes of their Subordinates

The intuition holding that an organized crime leader should be punished more severely than a subordinate who directly commits an offence is commonly reflected in legal literature. However, positing a direct relationship between the severity of punishment and the level of seniority within an organizational hierarchy represents a departure from a more general idea found in much of the substantive criminal law writings: that the severity of punishment increases the closer the proximity to the physical commission of the offence. This paper presents an analysis of the said intuition and attempts to ascertain its roots. Rejecting both retribution and deterrence theory as valid explanations, it will be inferred that the imposition of harsher punishment on organized crime leaders is properly based on the multiplicity of offences for which they are responsible, and not the nature of their involvement in any specific offence.     

Do staff attitudes vary by position?: A look at one juvenile correctional center

Correctional staff are a vital part of an inmate’s institutional experience. Prior research suggests interaction between staff and inmates may be a function of worker attitudes toward crime and punishment. The current study examines attitudes about crime causation and punishment by surveying correctional staff members at a single-purpose juvenile treatment center. Correctional officers and treatment personnel exhibit different levels of support for rehabilitative ideals. Organizational ramifications stemming from these divergent outlooks are discussed.     

Do Fringe Banks Create Fringe Neighborhoods? Examining the Spatial Relationship between Fringe Banking and Neighborhood Crime Rates

In the aftermath of one of the worst recessions in US history, high unemployment has placed millions of Americans in precarious financial positions. More than ever, Americans are opting out of traditional financial services, relying instead on “fringe lenders” such as check cashers, payday lenders, and pawnshops to manage their finances. Given their tremendous growth and the concern that consumers who are least able to pay for high-cost, high-risk financial products are most likely to use them, fringe lenders have been the subject of controversy and the focus of much research. Largely unknown, however, are the effects of fringe lenders on the communities where they are located. Given their spatial concentration in low-income neighborhoods with greater concentrations of racial and ethnic minorities—areas with typically more crime—of concern is whether fringe lenders themselves are criminogenic. We consider this by examining the impact of several types of fringe lenders on neighborhood crime rates in Los Angeles. Our findings reveal that the presence of fringe banks on a block is related to higher crime levels, even after controlling for a range of factors known to be associated with crime rates. The presence of a fringe bank also impacts crime, particularly robbery, on adjacent blocks. Whereas we find that pawnshops have little impact on crime levels, payday lenders and check cashers have a much stronger impact. Finally, we discover there are moderating effects, as the fringe lender–crime relationship is considerably reduced if the lender is located in a higher population density area.     

论罪刑相适应原则之刑法地位

罪刑相适应原则在国内刑法理论中早就提了出来,并在现行的刑法条文中有所表述。但对该原则的已有理论研究高度不够,视野狭窄。立足于罪刑相适应原则之于刑罚个别化、罪责刑相适应原则、罪刑法定原则、刑法面前人人平等原则和刑法人道主义原则的关系较为全面而深入地揭示了罪刑相适应原则的刑法核心原则地位,从而为宏观把握和整体领悟刑法开启一扇窗口。     

THE ARTIFACT ISSUE IN DETERRENCE RESEARCH

The often-observed negative correlation between crime rates and estimates of the objective certainty of a legal punishment is interpreted by some as support for the deterrence doctrine. Others, however, characterize the correlation as inherently artifactual because the variables being correlated have a common term (number of crimes is the numerator of the crime rate and the denominator of the objective certainty variable). Still others argue that the correlation is not inherently artifactual but is nevertheless spurious because of measurement error. This paper shows that the negative correlation is not inherently artifactual and provides evidence to support the measurement error interpretation. Unfortunately, however, there is no definitive way to demonstrate whether the negative correlation between the crime rate and the objective certainty of punishment rejects deterrence or merely measurement error.