转型时期俄罗斯总统选举的基本特征及其成因

本文以1991年以来俄罗斯三届总统选举的过程与结果为依据,概括出了转型时期俄罗斯总统选举的基本特征,即在竞选过程中政权因素占主导地位、政党的作用有限、候选人的个人政治魅力与民意取向左右选举结果;在对影响俄罗斯总统选举诸因素(包括政权、选举制度、政党民意等)的具体分析基础上,阐述了这一基本特征形成的主要原因。同时,结合普京时期俄罗斯政治发展的新特点,提出了俄罗斯总统选举这一民主运行机制未来的发展途径。     

2008年俄罗斯总统选举与中俄关系

即将于2008年举行的俄罗斯总统选举广受世界各国关注。俄国内政治生态将对此次总统选举产生直接影响。无论是就民意的偏好、政党格局的出新、精英层的嬗变等各个方面来看，由普京总统所主导的2008年总统大选的整个程序正在上述各要素的互动中有条不紊地向前推进。2008年选举还对俄政治格局的继续演进和俄西方关系的可能变化具有举足轻重的作用。中俄关系将有望保持其延续性和稳定性，出现有利局面，但不意味着中俄关系的进一步发展会是一个不需要任何努力的自然过程。     

俄罗斯总统选举团队的较量及其前景

随着今年底明年初俄罗斯议会和总统选举的日益临近,梅德韦杰夫总统与普京总理的政见分歧日趋明显,两人背后的团队更是推波助澜、相互角力,俄罗斯政局面临新的变数和风险。     

俄罗斯宪法实施的司法路径评述

当代俄罗斯国家无论在观念上还是制度设计上都非常重视宪法实施问题.与分权原则相适应确立了宪法法院型的宪法监督模式.从近20年的宪法审判实践看,宪法法院通过作出宪法解释、审理公民的宪法诉愿案、对法律等规范性文件进行合完性审查等多种方式,细致阐释宪法的原则和精神.俄罗斯宪法实施的司法路径选择从其运行的效果看,既有积极作用也存在一定的问题.     

俄罗斯总统选举及新政权政策走向

3月26日举行的俄罗斯第三届总统选举一锤定音,普京以52.94％的遥遥领先的支持率当选俄罗斯新总统。久加诺夫获选票29.34％,位居第二,亚夫林斯基获5.84％,名列第三,图列耶夫获3.02％,名列第四,其他候选人的得票率均在3％以下。     

“俄罗斯总统选举及其未来走势”会议综述

2008年5月20～21日,由中国社会科学院科研局国际学部主办、俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所承办的中国社会科学院第21届国际问题论坛在北京召开.此次论坛的主题为"俄罗斯总统选举及其未来走势",着重讨论俄罗斯2008年3月新一届总统选举之后政治、经济、外交以及社会文化的发展前景和走向.中国社会科学院副院长武寅致开幕词.论坛开幕式由中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长邢广程主持.     

俄罗斯新一届国家杜马选举前瞻

2007年12月2日，俄罗斯将举行新一届国家杜马选举。其结果不仅决定国家杜马的权力布局，而且作为2008年总统选举的预演，对国家最高权力的交接也将产生重要影响。目前，新一届杜马的竞选工作正如火如荼地展开，并呈现出一些新的特点。各党实力的差距、与政府关系的亲疏以及民众的价值取向，决定了新一届国家杜马仍将是“统一俄罗斯”党一枝独秀，     

俄罗斯总统与总理的宪法地位与权限划分

2008年3月俄罗斯总统大选后,按照普京的政治设计,梅德韦杰夫将担任俄罗斯总统,普京将出任政府总理.以强势总统著称的普京改任总理后,新的梅一普关系模式将会引起人们的广泛议论和揣测.本文根据俄罗斯联邦宪法、宪法性法律和联邦法律,深入系统地研究了俄罗斯总统与总理的宪法地位、权限划分及其相互关系.这对于我们分析未来俄罗斯总统与总理在执行权力体系方面的隶属与协调关系,普京未来在俄罗斯政治中的特殊地位与作用,将有重要的理论和现实意义.     

2007年巴基斯坦的总统选举与政局发展

2007年是巴基斯坦政治进程的重要转折点,穆沙拉夫谋求总统连任,历经波折;各派力量分离组合,角逐激烈;政局也随之起伏、动荡。最终,穆沙拉夫掌控大局,平稳移交军权,就任平民总统,成为巴基斯坦历史上第一位实现由军人总统到民选总统平稳过渡的人,其影响深远。2008年2月18日国民议会选举和平举行,巴政治进入新阶段。     

俄罗斯外交中的欧亚主义文化特征

苏联解体后复兴的欧亚主义具有文化特征和理论意义，对当代俄罗斯外交具有重大影响。俄罗斯欧亚主义是俄罗斯自身文化因素的产物，研究具有鲜明俄罗斯文化特征的欧亚主义，可以更好地审视当今俄罗斯外交政策。     

Evolution of presidential news coverage

This study is the second of two reporting on how the American presidency has been rhetorically constructed for the nation's citizens by the mass media between 1945 and 1985. These research papers examined 412 Time magazine articles on the presidency, keying on such matters as how that magazine documented its reportage, which presidential qualities, behaviors, and problems it emphasized, and how Time used language strategies to describe and evaluate the presidency. By using a variety of content analytic methods, the authors detected two general trends in Time’s coverage: (1) the American presidency has been portrayed as an increasingly besieged institution—socially, politically, and psychologically—and (2) Time’s heavy focus on bureaucratic politics has resulted in an increasing institutionalization of the presidency. A variety of data support these two conclusions and suggest, furthermore, the existence of an over‐arching conceptual model in Time’s discussions of the presidency. The implications of this model are explored briefly here.     

Explaining incumbent re-election in authoritarian elections: evidence from a Chinese county

Despite the burgeoning comparative literature on authoritarian elections, less is known about the dynamics of competition in authoritarian subnational elections where opposition is not allowed to organize into parties. Local elections without partisan competition in single-party authoritarian regimes provide considerable advantages to the incumbents and may well turn the incumbent advantage common in liberal democracies into incumbent dominance. What economic factors can break incumbent dominance in such competition without parties? With quantitative and qualitative evidence from grassroots elections in China, this article illustrates that economic growth and industrial economic structure offering more economic autonomy help to break incumbent dominance and increase the prospects of successful challenge to incumbency by non-party outsiders. The examination of the findings in a broad context in China and against the backdrop of local democratization in the developing world suggests that though we may observe successful challenge to incumbency, liberalization of the political system requires not only competition, but also a relatively autonomous economy to sustain liberalization prospects. The findings contribute to the literature on electoral authoritarianism, subnational democratization and China’s grassroots elections.     

中俄收入分配制度变迁比较研究—兼论对于中国的启示

自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯贫富差距急剧拉大。十几年来，俄罗斯的收入分配制度经历了复杂的制度变迁，俄政府一直致力于缓解收入分配差距，进行了包括退休养老金制度、社会保障税制度、所得税制度等方面的改革。其中一些制度安排可以为当前的中国所借鉴，比如通过合理的税收来调节收入差距，重视收入信息管理系统和先进税收征管手段的使用，重视社会救助制度建设，实现社会保障法制化，完善社会保障基金的筹资方式等。     

亚洲新安全观及其秩序意涵:规范的视角

冷战后,亚太地区的权力内涵与安全内涵均发生重大的变化,建立在冷战时期两大军事集团对抗基础上的旧的安全观已经不适应亚洲形势的发展.倡导新型安全观已经成为亚洲的客观需求和历史必然.亚洲新安全观的提出既是安全观念上的一次创新,也是安全规范和安全秩序领域的重大变革.亚洲安全观的倡导和实践将引导亚洲安全秩序从外生型向内生型转变,从冲突型向合作型转变以及从权力型向创制型的转变.     

Revisiting elites,transitions and founding elections: An unexpected caller from Indonesia

This article assesses the usefulness of the literature on democratic transitions for analysing recent regime change in Indonesia. A first stage in this literature emphasized the autonomy of elite relations (whether unified or disunified) and the roles adopted by elites (for example, soft‐liners, minimalists and swingmen). A second stage contextualized elite behaviours, addressing such variables as economic crisis and the intrinsic properties of different modes of transition. However, some limitations in this conceptualization are revealed by attempts to apply it in the Indonesian case. Specifically, elite relations are difficult to classify empirically and role choices remain highly ambiguous. Further, the notion that economic crisis compels elites to democratize, and second, the argument that transition by opposition‐led ‘replacement’ leads to far‐reaching changes and authoritarian backlash, are unsupported by Indonesian data. Two principal conclusions are reached: Indonesian democracy has good prospects for consolidating, and the literature on transitions has limited capacity to explain this benign outcome.     

The predicament of elections in war-torn societies

Why do elections held in the shadow of civil wars sometimes generate more violence in already war-torn societies, while in other circumstances they do not? This article develops a conceptual framework based on three clusters of factors to analyse the conflict-generating aspects of elections in war-torn societies: the key actors in the electoral processes; the institutions of elections; and the stakes of the elections. Two types of war-related elections are distinguished: elections held during an ongoing civil war, and elections held in the post-war period when peace is to be implemented. While different in many respects, the two contexts share critical characteristics through their association with the legacy of warfare. Several important implications emerge from the analysis. First, relating to militant and violent actors, incentive structures need to be altered by addressing both the opportunities and means of violence. Second, to prevent inducements for violent behaviour, institutional arrangements – including electoral commissions – have to be crafted with consideration given to local conflict dynamics and the history of violent conflict. Finally, the stakes of elections in war-shattered societies can be reduced through, for instance, constitutional pact-making and the oversight of external actors in electoral processes.     

The failure of the Philippine presidential system

This article explains why the Philippines continues to be a weak state and that the prospects for building a stronger, sustainable state are dim under the current political system. Philippine elections are won through a mix of popularity, populism and money politics. This seriously undermines the strength of the state since the oligarchy expects returns for their investment in a candidates campaign. The extraordinary power of the president and the ministers makes it possible to repay and buy the loyalty of the financial and political oligarchy by giving away jobs within the bureaucracy. A predatory political elite, whose prime goal it has been to win the coming elections and to assure that their family interests are protected and promoted further undermines the independence and meritocracy of the Philippine bureaucracy. I argue that as long as the current presidential system continues to exist in the Philippines the chances for building a strong state are slight.This article represents an abbreviated version of the introduction of the MA thesis of Bastiaan van de Loo titled: The Election and Presidency of Joseph Estrada: A Case Study of Philippine Politics. The complete version of the thesis can be found on http://www.thephilippines.org