Municipal Bond Insurance Premium,Credit Rating,and Underlying Credit Risk

This article explores the question of whether bond insurers are able to sufficiently evaluate the credit risk of insured bonds, the answer to which would determine the future of municipal bond insurance. A sample of insured municipal bonds is investigated to determine whether bond insurance premia can predict the future credit rating transition, the proxy for bond credit risk. The results show that municipal bond insurance premia, conditional on bond credit ratings and other explanatory variables, have explanatory power over credit rating downgrades but not over upgrades. As such, bond insurance premia convey extra information about the underlying credit risk of a bond issue than the original credit rating reveals. This research also provides evidence that the rating agencies might not be doing as a good job as they could potentially do.     

An Empirical Examination of the Determinants of Insured Municipal Bond Issues

Research demonstrates that there are interest cost savings associated with municipal bond insurance, and yet only half of the bonds are issued with insurance. The theoretical determinants of bond insurance are discussed and evaluated empirically through logistic regression. Statistically significant bond attributes are the underlying credit risk, maturity, par value, and a call option. In addition, regional market characteristics at the time of issue and market segmentations are determinants of bond insurance. These findings strengthen the hypotheses that insurance mitigates market segmentation and that insurers function as delegated monitors of bond quality.     

Threshold Insurance Voting in PR Systems: A Study of Voters’ Strategic Behavior in the 2010 Swedish General Election

This study investigates strategic voting for small parties in proportional representation systems, in previous work sometimes referred to as threshold insurance voting (Cox, 1997). Starting from theories of rational voting (Downs, 1957), three conditions for threshold insurance voting are developed: the voter considers potential government outcomes, votes for a party at risk of falling below an electoral threshold, and votes for another party than his or her most preferred one. The conditions are tested on the case of the 2010 Swedish general election. Using extensive data material and a conditional logit model of vote choice, the results show that in this election voters cast strategic votes for at least one of the small parties, the Christian Democrats which was included in the incumbent government coalition.     

No Guaranties: The Decline of Municipal Bond Insurance

The credit crisis that roiled the financial and housing markets in late 2007 and early 2008 resulted in well‐publicized budget challenges for state and local governments. Less visible has been a dramatic change in the bond insurance market, which alters how governments issue long‐term debt. Debt issuance data from Texas are used to model bond insurance premiums and examine utilization following the crisis. The results provide evidence that insurance premiums rose dramatically following the fiscal crisis, even when controlling for widening credit spreads and changes in the underlying credit quality of issuers.     

The interest cost savings from municipal bond insurance: The implications for privatization

Previous studies of privatization have considered the cost-effectiveness of privatizing more labor-intensive services. This study examines the effectiveness of public and private delivery of a more capital-intensive service: insuring municipal bonds against default. Credit enhancement for local government bonds is available from private insurance companies and from some state governments. Because of their reduced default risk, bonds backed by a third party should incur lower interest rates. This research considers two questions. Does a third party guarantee lower interest rates? Is private bond insurance more cost-effective than the credit enhancement programs of state governments in lowering interest rates?     

Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes

In the developing world, kidnapping is relatively common, and a market for kidnap insurance has arisen in response. We provide a model that allows us to analyze how kidnap insurance affects the interaction between the kidnapper and the victim’s family when both are self-interested and have complete knowledge. We find that a market for kidnap insurance can be supported because it benefits a risk-averse family, as long as the introduction of insurance does not increase the risk of kidnapping too much. Families should fully insure if purchasing insurance does not increase the probability of kidnapping, and partially insure otherwise. Kidnapping insurance allows families to redeem hostages from kidnappers with a greater willingness to kill, which may reduce the number of kidnapping fatalities as long as the insurance does not increase the risk of kidnapping too much.     

Bargaining Constitutional Design in Italy: Judicial Review as Political Insurance

Why would politicians, who expect to hold political power in the future, choose to create a constitutional court with the power of judicial review that can veto politicians' policies? Some theories suggest that international forces may be causal, as institutions or ideas are diffused geographically or within legal systems. Others focus on domestic politics as driving the decision to institute judicial review. Among these are the commitment, hegemonic preservation, party alternation and insurance theories. This article looks at the decision to establish a constitutional court in the Republic of Italy, the first post-World War II court in Europe that was not in a federal system. It argues that the insurance model drove the decision of the Italian Christian Democrats to support creation of a constitutional court at the point of constitutional design, but later to delay implementation once in power. Conversely, the Italian Communist–Socialist bloc opposed establishment of the court at the Constituent Assembly that wrote the post-war constitution on the ideological ground that it was contrary to popular sovereignty. However, once the leftist bloc found itself in the role of the opposition, it became a champion of the Constitutional Court and judicial review. The insurance theory is shown to explain the behaviour of the Christian Democrats in both design and implementation phases and the actions of the Communist–Socialist bloc during implementation.     

Redlining or risk? A spatial analysis of auto insurance rates in Los Angeles

Auto insurance rates can vary dramatically, with much higher premiums in poor and minority areas than elsewhere, even after accounting for individual characteristics, driving history, and coverage. This paper uses a unique data set to examine the relative influence of place‐based socioeconomic characteristics (or redlining) and place‐based risk factors on the place‐based component of automobile insurance premiums. We use a novel approach of combining tract‐level census data and car insurance rate quotes from multiple companies for sub‐areas within the city of Los Angeles. The quotes are for a hypothetical individual with identical demographic and auto characteristics, driving records, and insurance coverage. This method allows the individual demographic and driving record to be fixed. Multivariate models are then used to estimate the independent contributions of these risk and redlining factors to the place‐based component of the car insurance premium. We find that both risk and redlining factors are associated with variations in insurance costs in the place‐based component, with black and poor neighborhoods being adversely affected, although risk factors are stronger predictors. However, even after risk factors are taken into account in the model specification, SES factors remain statistically significant. Moreover, simulations show that redlining factors explain more of the gap in auto insurance premiums between black (and Latino) and white neighborhoods and between poor and nonpoor neighborhoods. The findings do not appear sensitive to the individual characteristics of the hypothetical driver. © 2007 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Do Investors Look Beyond Insured Triple–A Rating? An Analysis of Standard & Poor’s Underlying Ratings

This article demonstrates that for insured municipal bonds, revelation of underlying ratings can be an effective mechanism for further alleviating the information asymmetry problems found in the municipal bond market. Due to the prevalence of municipal bond insurance, investors are increasingly relying on the underlying ratings of insured bonds in gauging the relative riskiness of these bonds. For a sample of 697 municipal bonds issued in 1998, the results indicate that Standard & Poor's underlying ratings are able to reduce borrowing cost by four basis points, due to the additional information provided through these ratings.     

The government behind insurance governance: Lessons for ransomware

The insurance as governance literature focuses on the ability of private enterprises to collectively regulate, pool, and distribute risks. This paper analyzes how governments support insurance markets to maintain insurability and limit risks to society. We propose a new conceptual framework grouping government interventions into three dimensions: regulation of risky activity, public investment in risk reduction, and co-insurance. We apply this framework to six case studies, describing insurance markets' reliance on public support in more analytically precise terms. We analyze how mature insurance markets overcame insurability challenges akin to those currently presented by extortive cybercrime. Private governance struggled when markets grew too big for informal coordination or when (tail) risks escalated. Government interventions vary widely. Some governments prioritize supporting economic activity while others concentrate on containing risks. Governments also choose between risk reduction and ex post socialization of losses. We apply these insights to the market for ransomware insurance, discussing the merits and potential hazards of current proposals for government intervention.     

Catastrophe risk,insurance and terrorism

This article empirically investigates how the terrorist activity of September 11, 2001, was addressed by the insurance industry and government in the United States. It shows that the insurance system worked reasonably well in compensating losses suffered, albeit with various tribulations. It also demonstrates that the insurance industry, along with government as the ultimate risk manager, imaginatively reconfigured markets to continue terrorism insurance coverage in many contexts. The findings challenge many of Ulrich Beck’s contentions about catastrophe risks and insurability. At the same time, they indicate the fragility of the insurance system. Insurers’ perceptions and decisions about uncertainty – with potential for windfall profits as well as catastrophic losses – create crises in insurance availability and promote new forms of inequality and exclusion. Hence, while the insurance industry is a central bulwark against uncertainty, insurers can also play a key role in fostering it.     

THE POLICY IMPACT OF NO-FAULT AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE

This study examines the impact of four different types of no-fault automobile insurance laws on the risk adjusted price of insurance. No-fault insurance plans are in operation in 23 states. Using data from 1976 to 1984 for 49 states, the study found that no-fault plans limiting litigation result in lower prices for automobile insurance. This relationship holds even under controls for several variables that also affect the price of automobile insurance.     

Governable catastrophes: a comment on Bougen

Bougen's analysis of catastrophe insurance has considerable and damaging implications for the 'risk society' thesis. First, it outlines how insurance 'imaginaries' render even catastrophic and 'incalculable' modernization risks insurable. It also highlights the fact that such insurance has been mobilized and shaped by specific forms of political rationality, something which falls beneath the gaze of grand theory. Finally, the paper indicates that risk and uncertainty - far from being mutually exclusive - are frequently assembled together into governing technologies, and that uncertainty may denote a variable set of technologies through which catastrophes can be and are managed.     

Labour mobility and decision making on social insurance in an integrated market

In a two-country model the consequences of labour mobility on social insurance levels are studied. There are two groups of workers, one with a high risk and the other one with a low risk of being nonemployed. In both countries the decision-making function on social insurance is some weighted average of the expected utilities of both groups. In case low-risk workers are much more mobile than high-risk workers, it can be concluded that labour mobility does not necessarily have a downward effect on social insurance. In that case coordination of decision making would not improve the levels of social insurance.     

How Does Regulation Affect the Risk Taking of Banks? A U.S. and Canadian Perspective

This historical study utilizes annual insured bank data from 1936 through 1989 to empirically evaluate the impact of bank regulation on bank risk taking in a cross-country comparison of the United States and Canada. Risk is hypothesized to be determined, in part, by the regulatory environment in which a bank operates. The findings of this analysis contributes to the contemporary deregulation policy debate, since both branch banking restrictions and deposit insurance variables are found to be detrimental to bank stability. More specifically, these results support the 1994 Riegle–Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act, which removed legislative barriers to interstate branching. These results also confirm expectations that deposit insurance increases risk taking and supports the 1991 mandate by regulators that risk-based deposit insurance be created. Further, these findings support the 1988 Basel Accord to standardize bank capital requirements internationally and to link these standards to bank risk taking.     

FHA restructuring proposals: Alternatives and implications

Abstract

This article evaluates problems of the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) under its current structure, develops criteria for judging alternative structures, and suggests one alternative—an assigned risk pool—that encourages efficiency in the insurance function while still promoting low‐ and moderate‐income housing. A historical introduction explains how the current institutional relationships came about and created FHA's problems.

FHA's decline resulted from the mixing of a heavy social agenda with the basic insurance objective, a destructive reorganization of the Department of Housing and Urban Development that caused FHA to lose control and focus, and government's inherent inability to respond to market signals. Yet the economic rationale for government involvement in FHA functions is strong. An FHA organized as an independent government agency, a government‐sponsored enterprise, or even a privatized entity structured as an assigned risk pool could improve efficiency of underwriting, pricing, and administration while achieving the redistributional objectives.     

Now You See It, Now You Don't: The Mysterious Case of the Vanishing Split Bond Rating in States

Bond ratings on state-issued debt provide a signal to credit markets that help them charge an appropriate interest rate, based on the risk of payment default. Though actual default may occur only in extreme circumstances, observed differences in ratings and interest costs across states and time demonstrate that a sound economy, strong financials, and stable policies matter. When data on the factors that presumably affect ratings is public and easily accessible, making sense of differences of opinion between bond rating agencies is difficult. We suggest that such differences—observed as so-called split bond ratings—are often ephemeral. Utilizing a simulation method to uncover the latent credit risk presented by each state, we show that split ratings on state bonds are often due to the fact that presumed category overlap between rating agencies is absent when evaluated on a common latent scale. Most observed state bond rating splits from 1997 through 2006 can be explained by this category mismatch. Our approach has broad implications for pricing state debt, as well as pricing rated debt in other capital market sectors.     

Opinion Polls,Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Recent studies find that defection from one's most preferred party to some other party is as common under proportional representation (PR) as it is in plurality systems. It is less elaborated how election‐specific contextual factors affect strategic vote choice under PR. This study looks at the impact of two potentially important contextual factors: parties’ coalition signals about cooperation with other parties (referred to as ‘pre‐electoral coalitions’) and polling information, which vary from one election to the next. The focus is strategic voting for smaller parties at risk of falling below an electoral threshold. The hypothesis is that parties that are included in well‐defined coalitions will benefit from strategic ‘insurance’ votes if the polls show that they have support slightly below the threshold. However, smaller parties that do not belong to a coalition would be less likely to benefit from insurance votes. Extensive survey experiments with randomized coalition signals and polls give support to the idea that a voter's tendency to cast an insurance vote depends on whether the polls show support below or above the threshold and whether the party is included in a coalition or not.     

保险最大诚信原则是保险企业生存与发展的重要因素

最大诚信原则是保险的基本原则,保险最大诚信原则运用的目的是为了解决信息不对称、道德风险、顾客心理安全需求等问题。为完善保险业诚信体系应加强社会信用体系建设、加强保险诚信法制建设、建立保险诚信管理制度、加大诚信宣传教育、改革保险公司营销体制、加强对保险公司的诚信考评工作。     

Personalizing solidarity? The role of self-tracking in health insurance pricing

Can data-driven innovations, working across an internet of connected things, personalize health insurance prices? The emergence of self-tracking technologies and their adoption and promotion in health insurance products has been characterized as a threat to solidaristic models of healthcare provision. If individual behaviour rather than group membership were to become the basis of risk assessment, the social, economic and political consequences would be far-reaching. It would disrupt the distributive, solidaristic character that is expressed within all health insurance schemes, even in those nominally designated as private or commercial. Personalized risk pricing is at odds with the infrastructures that presently define, regulate and deliver health insurance. Self-tracking can be readily imagined as an element in an ongoing bio-political redistribution of the burden of responsibility from the state to citizens but it is not clear that such a scenario could be delivered within existing individual private health insurance operational and regulatory infrastructures. In what can be gleaned from publicly available sources discussing pricing experience in the individual markets established by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act 2010 (ACA), widely known as ‘Obamacare’, it appears unlikely that it can provide the means to personalize price. Using the case of Oscar Health, a technology driven start-up trading in the ACA marketplaces, I explore the concepts, politics and infrastructures at work in health insurance markets.