Value Creation: A Coordination Game

Strategy in negotiation is often modeled as an activity involving the interplay of creating and claiming behaviors. Theorists have advanced differing perspectives on what game best describes the consequences of choosing one approach over the other. David Lax and James Sebenius offer the prisoner's dilemma game as a model, whereas Richard Walton and Robert McKersie's analysis is consistent with a version of a classic coordination game — namely, the game of “chicken.” This article revisits these two perspectives and shows that the Walton–McKersie view is applicable to a broad range of contexts. In particular, it demonstrates how what is commonly called the tension between creating value and claiming is better understood as the simple tension between a high‐risk and a low‐risk choice.     

《不扩散核武器条约》:分歧与弥合

《不扩散核武器条约》自1970年生效以来在防止核扩散方面发挥了重要作用。但是,条约缔约国对《不扩散核武器条约》及其履行情况一直存在着分歧。近年来,由于核裁军进程缓慢而防止核扩散力度加大,分歧进一步加深。这些分歧如果得不到解决,势必损害国际核不扩散机制的有效性。本文认为,弥合这些分歧不仅要求对症下药而且要消除分歧的根源。     

东北亚合作机制的微观解释——从博弈论的角度

新制度主义把国际合作视为一种谈判和博弈的过程。个体为了实现共同利益 ,需要经过复杂的谈判和不断的博弈 ,谈判和博弈的结果便是国际制度的形成和国际合作的出现。但博弈的形式是多种多样的 ,而不同的博弈模式下 ,合作形成的条件和难易程度不同。同时 ,博弈的重复性预示着合作机制的建立将是一个长期的和艰巨的过程。东北亚地区的合作同样如此。     

中国—东盟合作的前景

引文本人依据近些年东亚尤其是中国和东盟的关系的发展而对接下来20年的走向可能造成的影响作一些预测.一些最值得关注的趋势回顾今日东亚,最为引人注目的也可能是将对此区域造成巨大影响的第一个趋势是人口的老龄化.它将迅速发展并影响着未来的20年.我们所面临的人口老化趋势不只局限在亚洲东北部的日本等一些国家,东南亚国家也正朝着人口老龄化的趋势发展.人口老龄化所带来的长期后果是,一方面要扭转人口老龄的趋势相对较难;另一方面一旦人口出生率低于自然死亡率,人口的年龄便逐渐老化,最终导致人口数量减少.     

"欧洲化":欧盟研究的一个新视角

近年来,"欧洲化"一词在欧盟研究文献中出现频率颇高,被很多学者认为是研究当前欧盟及欧洲政治的一个重要概念。"欧洲化"概念的出现反映出欧盟研究学者的关注点从欧盟层次向成员国国家层次的转移,特别是在20世纪90年代后,越来越多的人开始关注欧盟层次的发展对其成员国及准成员国国内制度、政策及政治文化所造成的影响。     

试论《中苏友好同盟条约》签订的过程及其影响

《中苏友好同盟条约》是苏联在大国沙文主义和民族利己主义驱动下提出的，是在蒋介石国民政府为维护自己统治权而对苏做出重大妥协的情况下签订的。它在客观上对中国革命起了一定的积极作用，但极为有限，它实质上严重损害了中国的国家利益。日渐成熟的中国共产党人自力更生，带领全国人民终于赢得全国革命的胜利。     

《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》研讨会综述

2001年8月29日,和平与发展研究中心在京召开题为<中俄睦邻友好合作条约>的重大意义及其影响的学术研讨会,来自中国现代国际关系研究所、社科院东欧中亚研究所、北京大学俄罗斯研究中心、北京友联会等研究机构的十余位学者出席了研讨会,就条约签署的历史背景、重大意义及其深远影响等问题进行了深入的探讨.现将有关内容综述如下:     

中美博弈与中国复兴——基于两国实力消长的视角

2018年全球局势复杂多变,单边主义、贸易保护主义抬头,全球经济整体增速回落。而中美贸易冲突的发酵与演化,进一步深化了世界政治经济形势的不确定性。中美两国实力的消长在过去的十年里一直受着全球舆论的关注,但鲜有文献从细节角度看清中美实力差距的微妙性。本文以中美贸易摩擦为背景,真实客观地比较中美实力变迁以及两者博弈的战略走向。本文认为,中美贸易争端不仅仅是一场经济贸易领域的对抗,更是涉及两国国家实力各方面的综合博弈。虽然中美两国元首达成共识暂缓征收关税,但中美贸易争端仍具有长期性和严峻性。中国应做好充分的心理准备,以战略耐力展开对美博弈,打造全球创新引擎,构建国际合作网络,最终成功实现国家的伟大崛起。     

国际体系结构与国家行为:一个博弈理论模型

国际体系结构特征对国家间利益分配和国家行为存在重要影响。在单极世界中,参与国的参与剩余将作为垄断租金转移给国家极;两极体系将导致利益反向再分配,即国家极的主导者剩余将作为租金转移给其他参与国家;意识形态冲突、文明冲突和经济地理邻近构成了国际政治交易成本的主要来源,它们决定了国家间政治结盟的基本分布特征。"中心—边缘"命题中存在的边缘地区发展陷阱以及战后日本发展等理论和现实问题,都可以用不同国际体系结构下的国家间博弈进行解释。     

Necessary Illusions: Misperception,Cooperation, and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty

A significant and growing body of literature related to security regimes focuses on the importance of either common knowledge or common norms to the success of efforts to limit military competition. This paper challenges this central pillar of the arms control literature. Security regimes, in particular arms control regimes, are not necessarily the product of common knowledge, norms, or shared identities. Rather, actors can and sometimes do cooperate because they do not fully understand one another and lack information. In these cases, examples of what I will refer to as “imagined intersubjectivity”—the mistaken belief that two actors share information, norms, and identities when in fact each has an idiosyncratic understanding—the lack of information is crucial for international cooperation. I analyze the record of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty negotiations. Through process-tracing, I will argue that three crucial moments in the negotiation process were premised on a misunderstanding of the position of the other party. The implications for cooperation without intersubjectivity are then explored.     

东南亚区域间主义的历史考察

从历史角度考察,东南亚区域间主义早于东南亚区域主义,其发展进程中存在着双区域间主义、跨区域主义和半区域间主义3种基本类型。就东南亚本地行为体在其中的地位和作用看,它经历了从冷战时期“追随”为主、“弱主导”和“弱参与”为辅,到后冷战时期“强主导”为主、“强参与”为辅的重大变化,由此实现了从“依赖”到“自主”乃至“中心”的根本性转变。这一历史演变进程表明,东南亚区域间主义与区域主义是紧密联动的,由此形成可以产生某种结果的互动关系和催生共同制度和集体认同的建构关系。     

《禁止核武器条约》之困境及出路

2021年1月22日起生效的《禁止核武器条约》致力于在全球范围内禁止核武器的拥有、研发、储存、转移、试验、使用或是威胁使用等行为,从而将核武器完全非法化。尽管《禁止核武器条约》反映了人道主义的关怀和无核世界的愿景,但该条约无论是在理论层面还是在现实层面都面临着不小的困境。从理论上看,《禁止核武器条约》以确立禁核规范来推动国际社会所有成员国弃核的逻辑基础并不牢固,因为规范可能退化甚至被颠覆,未必能够对国家产生强有力的约束。在现实层面,《禁止核武器条约》则因为全盘否定核威慑的重要性而遭到拥有核武器国家及其盟国的联合抵制,并暴露出该条约忽视部分国家的安全关切、损害国家自卫权利以及忽略裁军核查机制等不足。鉴于国际社会围绕《禁止核武器条约》产生了诸多争议,未来,该条约还是应当落脚到分步骤、渐进式的核裁军路线上来,需要在提供安全保证、区分禁核情形、建立核查机构,以及加强与不扩散国际机制兼容等方面进行完善,以促进当前核不扩散国际机制的改革和推动陷入停滞的核裁军进程的持续进行。     

Delegating Differences: Bilateral Investment Treaties and Bargaining Over Dispute Resolution Provisions

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) have become the dominant source of rules on foreign direct investment (FDI), yet these treaties vary significantly in at least one important respect: whether they allow investment disputes to be settled through the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). Through the compilation and careful coding of the text of nearly 1,500 treaties, we identify systematic variation in "legal delegation" to ICSID across BITs and explain this important variation by drawing upon a bargaining framework. Home governments prefer and typically obtain ICSID clauses in their BITs, particularly when internal forces push strongly for such provisions and when they have significantly greater bargaining power than the other signatory. Yet some home governments are less likely to insist upon ICSID clauses if they have historical or military ties with the other government. On the other hand, although host governments are often hostile toward ICSID clauses, particularly when sovereignty costs are high, they are more likely to consent to such clauses when they are heavily constrained by their dependence on the global economy. Our findings have significant implications for those interested in FDI, legalization, international institutions, and interstate bargaining.     

Compensatory Constitutionalisation: A Comparative Perspective

Legal scholars argue that there is an emerging global compensatory constitution. This denotes a set of compatible supranational and national institutions that fulfil functions hitherto fulfilled by national constitutions. Thus, de-constitutionalisation at the national level, which, as this strand of literature argues, has been brought about by forces such as globalisation, is compensated for. There are strong hints that such constitutionalisation takes place in a formal sense: there is an increasing number of norms which could be seen as elements of a new global constitutional order. But it is far from clear whether these norms make a difference. In this paper we ask whether states comply with this presumably new constitutional order. We distinguish between three types of rights which are granted by a constitution—political, economic and social rights. In this paper we focus on the economic and social components of the emerging global constitution, which have been neglected in previous research. We study compliance with International Labour Organization (ILO) and World Trade Organisation (WTO) norms. The ILO is the major source of a global social constitution; the WTO is the major source of a global economic constitution. We show that compliance is very uneven. Whilst formally a global constitution may be in the making, it makes little difference for citizens.     

中泰蔬菜水果零关税协议浅析

一、协议背景和内容浅析从2003年10月1日起,中泰两国间蔬菜和水果类产品的贸易开始实现了零关税。这是迄今中国实行的第一个零关税安排。中泰两国都是WTO的正式成员,而WTO的一个最基本的原则就是非歧视性原则。除非是与WTO规则相一致的区域贸易安排或给予经济不发达国家的特殊差别待遇,某一WTO成员给予其他任何一个成员的任何关税优惠措施,将自动给予所有其他成员。那么,中泰之间的蔬菜水果自由贸易又为何能实现呢?这是因为,该项零关税安排并非是中泰两国之间的单独协议,而是在中国—东盟自由贸易区框架协议中的“早期收获”方案下,提…     

Terrorism and Human Rights: A Defence Lawyer's Perspective

ABSTRACT

The author of this article is one of the attorneys appointed to represent Zacarias Moussaoui in the United States. Mr. Moussaoui is the only person facing criminal charges for alleged involvement in the September 11 plot. The author describes the system of government in the United States with a specific emphasis on several terrorism cases pending in the United States. He seeks to assure the readers that the rule of law is paramount in the United States. Recent decisions of the Supreme Court—in the Hamdi and Guantanamo cases—that confirm the constitutional rights of even the most dedicated enemies of the United States, which decisions post-date this submission, only affirm the writer's theme.     

拉美教育-社会不公原因探析

20世纪90年代以来,拉美各国的教育改革和发展都取得了一定成效,但仍普遍存在着教育不公平的现象.导致拉美的教育一社会不平等,既有教育体系内部的原因,又有教育体系外部的原因.教育体系内部的原因主要是拉美国家的学校教育质量的差异较大;教育体系外部的原因主要是教育机会的不均等,而种族歧视、不同收入水平和贫困又是导致教育机会不均等的主要原因.     

世界经济体系与世界经济格局

当今世界正处于历史性的重大转折时期 ,各国间经济、技术的交融达到了前所未有的程度 ,无可置疑地展示了世界经济的全球化趋势。但仅仅看到世界经济的全球化趋势是不够的 ,更为重要的问题在于这个世界是如何运转的 ,各种力量究竟占有什么样的地位。一句话 ,究竟应如何来理解和阐释目前这个世界的时代精神和时代特征。一、现代世界经济体系与世界经济格局按世界体系理论的观点 ,人类历史虽然包含着不同的部落、种族、民族和民族国家的历史 ,但这些历史不是孤立地发展的 ,而是相互联系着发展和演变的 ,总是形成一定的“世界性体系”。①古代具…