Marriage patterns among unwed mothers: Before and after PRWORA

The promotion of marriage and two‐parent families became an explicit public policy goal with the passage of the 1996 welfare reform bill. Marriage has the putative effect of reducing welfare dependency among single mothers, but only if they marry men with earnings sufficient to lift them and their children out of poverty. Newly released data from the 2002 cycle of the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), along with data from the 1995 cycle, allow us to compare pre‐ and post‐PRWORA differences in (1) cumulative marriage rates among unwed mothers, and (2) patterns of marital choice (that is, differences in characteristics of the men these mothers marry, such as their education and employment status). Overall, our results show that unwed childbearing is associated with lower marriage rates and marital quality. Difference‐in‐difference models show that welfare reform was not strongly associated with pre‐ and post‐welfare reform changes in marriage among nonmarital birth mothers, even among the most disadvantaged mothers. Compared with other women, nonmarital birth mothers also were less likely than other women to marry “economically attractive” men in the post‐welfare reform period. The success of marriage promotion initiatives may depend heavily on whether women themselves are “marriageable” and whether potential spouses have the ability to support a stable family life. © 2008 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

RURAL AND URBAN POVERTY: AN INCOME/NET WORTH APPROACH

This paper examines rural and urban changes in the distribution of poverty that would result from modifying the conventional poverty measure to include the annuity value of household net worth.
Use of this new income/wealth measure caused numerous shifts in the location and demography of the poverty population. Among those more often found to be in poverty under the new measure were young, renter, and large central city resident households. Age, homeownership, farm employment, education, retirement status, public assistance participation, and residence in the West were important factors in explaining the divergence of the WH and INC measures. The age and retirement impacts were significantly different in rural and urban areas. Rural residence itself was not an important factor in explaining WH and INC differences.     

For richer or for poorer: Marriage as an antipoverty strategy

This study examines the effects of changes in family structure on children's economic well‐being. An initial shift‐share analysis indicates that, had the proportion of children living in female‐headed families remained constant since 1970, the 1998 child poverty rate would have been 4.4 percentage points lower than its actual 1998 level of 18.3 percent. The March 1999 Current Population Survey is then used to conduct a second analysis in which marriages are simulated between single mothers and demographically similar, unrelated males. The microsimulation analysis addresses some of the shortcomings of the shift‐share approach by making it possible to account for the possibility of a shortage of marriageable men, to control for unobservable differences between married men and women and their unmarried counterparts, and to measure directly the effects of increases in marriage on the economic well‐being of children. Results from the microsimulation analysis suggest that, had the proportion of children living in female‐headed families remained constant since 1970, the child poverty rate would have been 3.4 percentage points lower than its actual 1998 level. Among children whose mother participated in a simulated marriage, the poverty rate would have fallen by almost two‐thirds. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Born to be poor: birthplace and number of brothers and sisters as factors in adult poverty.

Household heads who grew up as members of large families and/or as natives of small towns or rural areas tend to have less education and are more likely to be poor than those coming from small families and/or large cities. Data to support these conclusions have been drawn from two independent sources--a special Social Security Administration supplement to the April 1968 Current Population Survey and findings from the Retirement History Study conducted by the Social Security Administration.     

Fertility in rural and urban areas of Mexico

Data from 6 fertility surveys conducted in Mexico between 1969-87 were used to compare rural and urban fertility and to determine whether a significant level of contraceptive usage could be achieved in rural areas despite their lack of socioeconomic development. Age-specific marital fertility rates were calculated for the 4 national-level and 2 rural fertility surveys. The index of fertility control developed by Coale and Trussel was calculated for rural, urban, and all areas. The marital total fertility rate in rural areas declined from 10.6 in 1970 to 7.4 in 1982, a decline of 2.5% annually. From 1982-87 the annual rate of decline in rural fertility slowed to 1.6%, reaching 6.8 children in 1987. The urban marital total fertility rate declined from 7.72 in 1976 to 5.03 in 1987, while the marital total fertility rate for Mexico as a whole declined from 9.04 in 1976 to 5.85 in 1987. The indices of fertility control showed slowly increasing use of contraception in rural areas starting from the very low level of 1969. The urban index of fertility control showed some contraceptive use for all age groups in all surveys. The increases in contraceptive usage were considerable in rural areas from 1976-82 and much less marked in urban areas. From 1982-87 the inverse was observed and the fertility decline in urban areas was more marked. The condition of natural fertility found in rural areas in 1969 subsequently disappeared. Over time, fertility decline and use of contraception have intensified. Contraception is widely practiced in urban areas and is continuing to become more prevalent. The rural fertility decline in 1976-82 suggests that at least sometimes increases in fertility control are more important in rural areas than in urban areas. The theory of modernization, which holds that fertility decline in developed countries is attributable to factors associated with the process of modernization, thus comes into question. However, it is probable that a sustained fertility decline in the most depressed rural areas will be achieved only with substantial socioeconomic change.     

Multiple roots of the populist radical right: Support for the Dutch PVV in cities and the countryside

Populist radical right parties are considerably more popular in some areas (neighbourhoods, municipalities, regions) than others. They thrive in some cities, in some smaller towns, and in some rural areas, but they are unsuccessful in other cities, small towns, and rural areas. We seek to explain this regional variation by modelling at the individual level how citizens respond to local conditions. We argue that patterns of populist radical right support can be explained by anxiety in the face of social change. However, how social change manifests itself is different in rural and urban areas, so that variations in populist radical right support are rooted in different kinds of conditions. To analyse the effects of these conditions we use unique geo-referenced survey data from the Netherlands collected among a nationwide sample of 8,000 Dutch respondents. Our analyses demonstrate that the presence of immigrants (and particularly increases therein) can explain why populist radical right parties are more popular in some urban areas than in others, but that it cannot explain variation across rural areas. In these areas, local marginalization is an important predictor of support for populist radical right parties. Hence, to understand the support for the populist radical right, the heterogeneity of its electorate should be recognized.     

The Effects of Contraception on Female Poverty

Poverty rates are particularly high among households headed by single women, and childbirth is often the event preceding these households’ poverty spells. This paper examines the relationship between legal access to the birth control pill and female poverty. We rely on exogenous cross‐state variation in the year in which oral contraception became legally available to young, single women. Using census data from 1960 to 1990, we find that having legal access to the birth control pill by age 20 significantly reduces the probability that a woman is subsequently in poverty. We estimate that early legal access to oral contraception reduces female poverty by 0.5 percentage points, even when controlling for completed education, employment status, and household composition.     

Recent Data Trends Show Welfare Reform to Be a Mixed Success: Significant Policy Changes Should Accompany Reauthorization

The conventional wisdom is that the 1996 federal welfare reform law has been a stunning success. Welfare caseloads have declined significantly and employment among disadvantaged single mothers has increased more than anticipated. Also, more low‐income children were living with married couples in the late 1990s. However, welfare reform was enacted in the midst of exceptional economic, demographic, and other policy changes and it is impossible to disentangle the impact of federal welfare reform from these other factors. This article describes these factors and puts the income gains and losses among families with children between 1996 and 2000 into the historical context of the past twenty‐five years. This analysis provides substantial evidence that welfare reform may have “worked” for many low‐income families with children while failing other low‐income families. Furthermore, despite recent increases in poverty following the 2001 recession, welfare caseloads continued to decline, indicating a fundamental flaw in what has traditionally been a countercyclical program. Data also suggest that the significant increase over the 1990s in the share of low‐income children living with married couples has been reversed following the recent recession. These findings suggest that the 1996 welfare law needs to be considerably retooled.     

Contraceptive practice and social class in Mexico: recent experience

Data from the 1982 National Demographic Survey are analyzed to study recent changes in contraceptive use and sterilization in Mexico. Variables studied in relation to contraceptive use include method used, place where information was obtained, social class, rural or urban area, age, education, marital status, and place of residence. In relation to sterilization, variables studied include age, social class, institution where sterilization was performed, number of children, and date of birth of last child. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

THE WAR ON POVERTY: MEASUREMENT,TRENDS, AND POLICY

We present a 50‐year historical perspective of the nation's antipoverty efforts, describing the evolution of policy during four key periods since 1965. Over this half‐century, the initial heavy reliance on cash income support to poor families has eroded; increases in public support came largely in the form of in‐kind (e.g., Food Stamps) and tax‐related (e.g., the Earned Income Tax Credit) benefits. Work support and the supplementation of earnings substituted for direct support. These shifts eroded the safety net for the most disadvantaged in American society. Three poverty‐related analytical developments are also described. The rise of the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM)—taking account of noncash and tax‐related benefits—has corrected some of the serious weaknesses of the official poverty measure (OPM). The SPM measure indicates that the poverty rate has declined over time, rather than being essentially flat as the OPM implies. We also present snapshots of the composition of the poor population in the United States using both the OPM and the SPM, showing progress in reducing poverty overall and among specific socioeconomic subgroups since the beginning of the War on Poverty. Finally, we document the expenditure levels of numerous antipoverty programs that have accompanied the several phases of poverty policy and describe the effect of these efforts on the level of poverty. Although the effectiveness of government antipoverty transfers is debated, our findings indicate that the growth of antipoverty policies has reduced the overall level of poverty, with substantial reductions among the elderly, disabled, and blacks. However, the poverty rates for children, especially those living in single‐parent families, and families headed by a low‐skill, low‐education person, have increased. Rates of deep poverty (families living with less than one‐half of the poverty line) for the nonelderly population have not decreased, reflecting both the increasing labor market difficulties faced by the low‐skill population and the tilt of means‐tested benefits away from the poorest of the poor.     

Women with high fertility in Mexico: orientations for a population policy

The characteristics and correlates of high fertility women in Mexico were assessed for different age and residential groups with data from the National Demographic Survey of 1982. This survey included information on rural, urban and metropolitan Mexican women aged 15-49 years who had ever been in union. Rural areas were defined as those with fewer than 20,000 inhabitants. Metropolitan areas were Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Mexico City. High fertility was defined for the purpose of this study as at least 2 live births for women 15-19, 3 for women 20-24, 4 for those 25-29, 5 for those 30-34, 6 for those 35-39, and 7 for those 40-49. According to this definition about 40% of Mexican women are high fertility, with proportions ranging from about 1/3 of those 20-29 to half of those 35-49 years old. High fertility is about twice as common in women 15-19 in rural areas as in urban and metropolitan areas of Mexico. 10% of rural women aged 20-24 already have 5 children, compared to less than 1% of metropolitan women and under 3% of women in other urban areas. By age 45-49, 31% of rural women, 20% of other urban women, and 15% of metropolitan women have 10 or more children. 13% in all areas have 2 or 3. Large proportions of rural women in all age groups are high fertility, with the difference especially marked at young ages. The data on contraceptive usage indicate that high fertility women are among the increasing numbers of Mexican women attempting to control their family size. 10% of high fertility women in rural areas are sterilized and another 10% use oral contraceptives. Injectables and traditional methods share 3rd place. IUDs are almost nonexistent in rural areas. In urban and metropolitan zones about 1/4 of high fertility women have been sterilized. About 10% use pills. Traditional methods and IUDs are in 3rd place for urban women while injectables occupy 3rd place for metropolitan women. Except among women 30-34, about 70% of sterilizations in rural areas are in high fertility women. The data demonstrate the growing acceptance of family planning in rural as well as in urban areas. In 1969, only 10% of rural women in union had ever used a contraceptive method. The 43.1% of Mexican women with little or no schooling contribute 63% of the high fertility. High fertility women are overrepresented in the lowest educational stratum in all age groups. Methodological difficulties arise in comparing the fertility performance of different social groups. It appears however that agricultural workers and unsalaried self-employed workers contribute a disproportionate share of high fertility.     

农民工犯罪若干问题探析

农民工犯罪是指进城务工的农民在城镇的犯罪,它具有城乡流动、经济选择和城镇诱因等特征。研究农民工犯罪应当立足中国实际,继承和发扬"实事求是"的优良学风,加强实证和理论研究。政府要承担起改善农民工城市工作和生活条件的责任,全社会要树立起与农民工一起创造新家园的观念。     

Inner‐city concentrated poverty and neighborhood distress: 1970 to 1990

Abstract

Tract‐level data from the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses of population are used to identify poverty neighborhoods, extreme poverty neighborhoods, distressed neighborhoods, and severely distressed neighborhoods within the nation's 100 largest central cities. Changes in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of these neighborhoods are documented, including racial/ethnic composition; poverty population concentration; school dropout rates; and rates of joblessness, single‐parent households, and welfare receipt.

Results show that despite some encouraging individual city turnarounds in the Northeast (especially in New York, Newark, and Philadelphia), urban poverty concentration and neighborhood distress worsened nationwide between 1980 and 1990. The greatest deterioration occurred in midwestern cities, particularly in Detroit. Southern cities, whose neighborhoods and cities typically improved during the 1970s, slipped during the 1980s; conditions in western cities also deteriorated. Blacks fared worse than whites and Hispanics during the 1980s in terms of increased concentration of poor in poverty tracts and distressed urban neighborhoods.     

A “third way” in welfare reform? Evidence from the United Kingdom

U.S. welfare reforms, whether promoting work first or human capital development, have had in common an emphasis on employment as the key to improving the life chances of children living in single‐mother families. We describe in this article a different type of reform—a “third way” in welfare reform. The welfare reforms carried out in the United Kingdom since the “New Labour” government of Tony Blair was elected in 1997 have included promotion of paid work, but alongside two other components—an explicit commitment to reduce and eventually eliminate child poverty, and a campaign against long‐term disadvantage under the label of tackling “social exclusion.” Welfare‐to‐work reforms promoting employment for single mothers have been active but not as punitive as in the United States. At the same time, the tax credit and cash benefit system has been radically overhauled, benefiting low‐income families with children, whether or not parents are working. Early indications suggest a more rapid fall in child poverty in the United Kingdom since its reforms began than in the United States since its reforms, and a faster rise in single‐mother employment. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Cooperative education and training at the grassroots in Nigeria

Faced with evidence of an appallingly low standard of living which the vast majority of men and women in Nigeria have despite two decades of development and cooperative movements, the Federal and State Governments now attempt to ensure that the real target of development are the human beings who will remain central to all redefinitions and to all revised strategies. This study proposes a theoretical framework for cooperative education and training programmes in the rural areas of Nigeria in order to raise the level of understanding and performance of cooperative members. The approach is primarily an amalgam of the general process model of organization systems and McGrath's problem - based/problem - solving systems. Application of the approach subsequently suggests a method of scientific inquiry which this paper conceives as the Cooperative Education Working Model. To be most effective, Nigerian cooperators must regard cooperative education and training as a vital benefit which their membership provides for them.     

The one-child policy in China

Although the government of the People's Republic of China manifested sporadic concern about the nation's rapid population growth beginning at the time of the 1953 national census, it was not until the 1970s that a small family with a maximum of 2 children began to be promoted through a national campaign of education and persuasion. With the subsequent advent of the 1-child policy in 1979, the family planning campaign became a campaign for population planning in which the government no longer limited itself to contraceptive education and distribution, but began to intervene in human reproduction to accomodate it to material production. China's population policy, despite setbacks and delays, has had notable results. No other predominantly peasant society has achieved such a significant fertility decline in such a short time, but the price has been high. The problems have included confrontation with ancient cultural traditions, interference of the government in the most intimate aspects of family life, the sacrifice of a natural desire for children, evasion of marriage and birth registration, and even female infanticide. The incentives and sanctions for the 1-child policy have been primarily economic in nature, but widespread coercion and abuse have been reported. Although China's fertility has declined steadily since 1971, the fall was considerably greater in the cities, where the expense of children and critical housing shortages have effectively discouraged childbearing. In the countryside the dismantling of the communes and substitution of a system of family responsibility for agricultural production have had a strong pronatalist effect, reinforcing the desire for children as a means of old age security. The costs of children in rural areas are insignificant compared to the cities, housing is less crowded, and fertility sanctions are harder to enforce. Rural discontent and resistence to government family planning policy nevertheless became so acute that it was probably a factor in the 1984 relaxation of the 1-child policy in certain rural areas. Despite considerable success, the Chinese government has not met its family planning goals. 32.3 million couples, or 18% of fertile-aged couples, have expressed willingness to have only 1 child. The 32.3 million include 36% of urban and 11% of rural couples. According to a July 1988 fertility survey, the crude birth rate dropped to 8.84/1000, but the rates of early marriage and adolescent pregnancy were increasing. A major problem in the next 5 years will be the arrival at marriageable age of the large cohorts born around the time of the Cultural Revolution.     

IMPACTS OF THE FARM FINANCIAL CRISIS OF THE 1980s ON RESOURCES AND POVERTY IN AGRICULTURALLY DEPENDENT COUNTIES IN THE UNITED STATES

The farm financial crisis of the 1980s has had a major effect on agriculturally dependent areas in the United States. The crisis has resulted in a large proportion of producers leaving agriculture, in a substantial decline in the number of rural businesses, and in the support for rural service bases. Although extensively analyzed, the crisis' impacts on resources and poverty have not been adequately evaluated.
This paper examines such impacts using parameters derived from USDA data and from extensive surveys of producers, business operators, and employees in rural communities. The results show effects on populations, services, and income that could lead to a substantial increase in the rates of poverty in these counties.
The paper concludes that the crisis, if left unaddressed, may result in a long-term loss of economic opportunities, accentuated rates of poverty, and reduced potential for economic development in agriculturally dependent areas in the United States.     

Reducing women's poverty by shifting social security benefits from retired couples to widows

This article examines proposals to transfer Social Security benefits from married couples to surviving widows in terms of effects on poverty rates, trust fund expenditures, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) expenditures. Because widows are much more likely to be living in poverty than older married women, it makes sense to consider Social Security benefits in a lifetime framework and transfer some benefits from the time both the husband and wife are alive to the time when there is only one survivor, usually the wife. Because of expected life span and age differences of marital partners, a $1 reduction of the couple's benefit can finance a $1.45 increase in the widow's benefit. The 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to the Social Security Administration's benefit records are the basis for the estimates.     

城市减贫的权利再现

城市贫困的发生与城市化进程有关,也与城市权利的实现有关。在全球范围内,城市化多伴随着贫困的治理,收入的差距最终将摧毁城市健康成长的物质与权利结构。中国的城市贫困隐藏在城市化的宏大叙事之中,体现为城市公共生活的个体争取;在城市化已经完成的西方国家,城市贫困则体现为公共生活的机会丧失。从现象上看,城市贫困呈现出空间与职业的分布特征,但是劳动才是城市生活的权利起点,因此劳动权的保障应该成为城市政府的政策起点。在中国的城市化进程中,城乡之间、区域之间的权利差距势必驱动人口流入沿海发达城市,从而形成单向度的权利选择,给一些城市增加了治理难度。因此,中国的城市治理还要立足区域协同发展,确保无差别的城市权利的全过程保障。