Great powers,civil society and authoritarian diffusion in Central Asia

ABSTRACT

This article draws on the authoritarian promotion literature to assess contending pressures for democratization and authoritarianism in Central Asia. Domestic actors ultimately determine receptivity to democracy promotion, but external pressures for democratic transformation or authoritarian persistence exist in Central Asia. A brief overview of authoritarian trends in Central Asia is followed by the theoretical arguments for authoritarian persistence, with special attention to the civil society dimension in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Western programmes supporting liberal democracy and civil society have encountered resistance from authoritarian leaders in Central Asia, though the evidence for direct influence from authoritarian external actors is limited. A process of indirect authoritarian diffusion, in combination with the region’s illiberal societies and Western democracy promotion fatigue, undermines the development of civil society and makes authoritarian persistence in Central Asia likely.     

Environmental migrations in Central Asia: a multifaceted approach to the issue

ABSTRACT

Increasingly, studies are considering Central Asia a ‘hot spot’ of climate change and a region prone to environmental migrations. Growing aridity and the shrinking of glaciers may have important impacts on food security, health, human security and infrastructure in the region and compel people to move. Drawing on the literature on environmental issues in Central Asia and on interviews conducted in the Kuhistoni-Badakhshan Autonomous Region of Tajikistan, this article provides a literature survey on environmental migrations in the region and positions Central Asia in the current debates within the broad environmental migrations literature. The article shows that environmental issues can stand out as an important push factor for out-migration in Central Asia, highlights the important role of the Soviet heritage of environmental management as well as of post-Soviet socio-economic transformations in understanding these issues, and discusses possible adaptation strategies.     

中亚国家经济转型的政治—制度基础:来自中国的经验

中亚地区由于地理上和经济上的重要性,以及其尚未完成的转型进程,日益成为国际上高度关注的焦点.本文的目的是详细说明经济转型过程中一个牢靠的政治-制度基础(politico-institutional foundation)是必不可少的;本文还要探讨中亚国家建立这样一个基础的方法.出于相似政治方面的条件,本文把表现出色的中国作为中亚国家发展方向的范例.     

Beijing’s Quest for Stability in its Neighborhood: China’s Relations with Russia in Central Asia

Using the English school arguments that inter-state regulation ameliorates the consequences of the power politics of international anarchy, I analyze to what extent China pursues a strategic partnership with Russia in Central Asia. I investigate if China has compatible policies with Russia on the use of force, on international legitimacy, and on institutional frameworks for security management. As China is increasingly asserting its security, economic, and institutional interests in Central Asia, similarities and differences have become apparent in relations with Russia. Increased mutual concern for continued regional stability has encouraged Beijing and Moscow to coordinate their policies across a wide range of issue areas. Stability allows them to focus attention and resources on each of their different geostrategic priorities.     

The views of the Chinese statesman on the par Eastern problem (1921)

The phrase “The Great Game” was first used in the context of Russia and Central Asia by the ill-fated Captain Conolly in 1840. For Conolly, the game metaphor signified a contest in which the Russians were Britain's potential opponents, while the Central Asians were her immediate ones. Indeed Conolly, like Thorburn, a later writer, seems even to have envisaged Russia as Britain's partner in the work of civilizing Asia. Boulger, tried to use the phrase to signify Anglo-Russian confrontation but interestingly the phrase was little used in the literature on Central Asia until Kipling's “Kim” endowed it with a popularity and the implication of great power rivalry which it had not previously enjoyed. In fact widespread use only came after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, though “The Great Game” is now in ever more frequent use to signify American/Russian rivalry. Kipling's use has triumphed over Conolly's.     

“规范性力量”遭遇“新大博弈”:欧盟在中亚推进民主的三重困境

作为“规范性力量”的欧盟,一直在中亚地区实施民主推进计划,以扩散西方自由、民主、人权、善治和法治等价值观念。为了评估欧盟在中亚地区推进规范议程的效果,本文构建了一个涵盖欧盟“自我”和中亚地区相关“他者”的分析框架。对于欧盟“自我”,本文着重考察了其规范绩效状况;对于中亚地区的相关“他者”,则着重分析了俄罗斯对欧盟形成的规范竞争,以及中亚国家对欧盟规范议程产生的规范共鸣现象。就欧盟在中亚地区推进自由民主模式产生的规范绩效、规范竞争与规范共鸣而言,其表现均不尽人意,且难以在短期内扭转。面对上述困境,欧盟意识到应着眼于中亚地区更长远的发展态势,以一种潜移默化的方式引导各国通过渐进的方式走上西方式发展道路。2019年6月,欧盟新出台的中亚战略正是反映了这一思路。     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

俄罗斯、中国及中亚的权力制衡:融合还是竞争?

近年来,中亚地缘政治结构出现重大变化,传统地缘关系被打破,新的地缘政治格局尚未完全形成.中国、俄罗斯由于自身实力的变化,以及各自在中亚目标存在异同,双方在中亚形成既融合又竞争的态势,而作为中俄在中亚共同的平台――上海合作组织,同样也面临着复杂的发展前景.随着时间的推移,不可确定因素的增加,中亚可能成为更复杂的"舞台".     

东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。     

Between national and European foreign policy: the role of Latvia and Romania in the EU’s policy towards Central Asia

This article explores whether and to what extent new member states of the European Union (EU) seek to pursue their national foreign policy goals towards Central Asia through the EU rather than bilaterally. To do so, it focuses on Latvia and Romania. While the article finds evidence of Romanian attempts to project its interests in the region onto the EU level, Latvia appears to rely more extensively on the EU level to pursue its goals towards Central Asia. Using insights from the literature on Europeanization of national foreign policy, the article explains this finding with reference to four variables that determine whether a member state will seek to upload its national foreign policy preferences onto the EU level, namely the perceived salience of the policy goals, the extent to which member states can carve out a niche, their perceived capabilities and the level of Europeanization of their national foreign policies.     

The centrality of Central Asia

Abstract

This paper poses some questions about how Central Asia fits into world history. The questions arise from my attempt to study world history as a world system. From this perspective, as one nonspecialist addressing other nonspecialists, Central Asia appears as a sort of black hole in the middle of the world. Little is known or said about it by those who focus on the geographically outlying civilizations of China, India, Persia, Islam, and Europe—including Russia. Even world historians see only some migrants or invaders who periodically emerge from Central Asia to impinge on these civilizations and the world history they make. Historians of art and religion view Central Asia as a sort of dark space through which cultural achievements moved from one civilization to another. At best, they see Central Asia itself as a dark tabula rasa on which itinerant monks, mullahs, and artists from these allegedly civilized areas left their marks. Now their remains can be admired in a thousand Buddha caves and mosques spread through Central Asia. Or they have been deposited in museums spread through the cultural capitals of the West and Japan after their “discoverers” unearthed them, crated them up, and carted them away.     

Negotiating state and society: the normative informal economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus

ABSTRACT

This special issue introduces new research on informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The research presented here was conducted in Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as Beijing, Guangzhou, Yiwu and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. The following eight articles illustrate how informal markets and trade in Central Asia and the Caucasus provided spaces for people across the region to negotiate state and society in the last three decades; the articles also suggest that informality should be seen as constitutive of a normative order for polities in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Informal markets and trade in Central Asia rest on three factors: the inability of the state to measure commercial transactions; markets and trade becoming places from which citizens built personalized networks that required individualized networking and oral agreements based on social relations, particularly trust; and markets being embedded within states in which clientelism frequently thrives.     

Assemblages of mobility: the marshrutkas of Central Asia

ABSTRACT

This article addresses reconfigurations of urban space in Central Asia through the lens of marshrutka mobility. Marshrutka-based transport is – together with the bazaar trade – a major sector of Central Asian economy. Although precise data are not available, estimates propose that one family in ten gains its income through it. In spite of its economic and social importance, there has barely been any research on marshrutka mobility so far. The marshrutka mobility phenomenon appears at once wide-ranging and elusive. In order to grasp its complexity, we propose a theory framework based on John Law's concept of fluidity and assemblage. Providing empirical insights from Khujand, in northern Tajikistan, the article addresses marshrutka mobility from a local perspective, notably with regard to regulatory processes of marshrutka-based transport. It also covers the trans-local perspective, with particular attention to global flows of ideas, vehicles, and people.     

The rise of the Jama'at al Tabligh in Kyrgyzstan: the revival of Islamic ties between the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia?

After two centuries of close relationships, especially under the Mughals, Islamic ties between India and Central Asia have been considerably weakened, first after the Tsarist colonization and then by Soviet religious repression and ideological isolation. However, when Central Asian post-Soviet republics became independent in 1991, they renewed all kinds of links with the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, the revival of Central Asian Islam benefited from inspirational international Islamic sources from Turkey, the Arab countries and India. The latter drew less attention from analysts than other sources of influence, although it has gained ground all over the region in past years, particularly in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where the India-based Jama'at al Tabligh has achieved significant success. This Islamic organization, established in British India in the 1920s, defines itself as a non-radical and non-political movement, promoting ‘basic’ Islamic faith and practice. So far, the Jama'at al Tabligh has been tolerated by local authorities who would rather use them as a shield against the more radical Islamic groups that are openly opposing the regime.     

中亚——日本双边、多边关系及其对中国的启示

中亚各国与日本建立外交关系以来,随着官方交往水平的提高,其伙伴关系稳步发展。1997年,"新丝路外交"这一概念总结了日本的中亚政策。21世纪伊始,新的地区伙伴开始受到中亚的欢迎。20多年间,日本与中亚的合作突出了几个特别的领域,即教育、区域经济发展、政治改革以及能源资源,其多边外交关系提升到了建立"中亚+日本"的对话机制。构建"丝绸之路经济带"的构想,反映了中国领导人对中亚政策的重要体现,反映了中国的中亚战略。日本的中亚政策,会在一定程度上给中国与中亚国家合作关系的发展造成一些影响,但是不能看作遏制中国与中亚国家合作关系的政策,应从中获得一定的启示。     

多重三边关系影响下的中亚地区

作者通过总结和分析中亚的态势,提出在中亚存在的多重三边关系.首先,作为中亚区域的核心三角关系:例如在上海合作组织框架下的中亚国家、俄罗斯、中国三边关系; 其次,跨欧亚区域的三边关系,包括俄罗斯、欧洲、中亚国家,其中包含俄罗斯、中国、印度等国家; 第三,全球层面的三边关系,例如:俄罗斯、美国、中国的关系,俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的关系.从长远来看,中亚地区内部的多元化以及外部的多样化共同深刻地影响这个区域的发展.作为中亚外部环境的基本形式,三边关系应以尊重国家基本安全利益为目标,并考虑在不可避免的合作与竞争的外部行为过程中采用共同的价值标准.     

Peril and promise: a survey of India's strategic relationship with Central Asia

This article outlines the growing importance of India's relations with the Central Asian region. In particular, it explores security, economic, and cultural dimensions of the relationship. Important considerations for India in dealing with Central Asia include terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, energy security, and new export markets. Of equal gravity, however, is the nature of great power competition in the heart of Asia. The argument presented here is that India's relations with Central Asia are calculated to gain strategic depth in the region. However, relationships with Pakistan, the United States, and the Asian great powers tend to constrain these ambitions. The future direction of India's strategic relationships with Central Asia remains fluid.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

欧盟援助下的中亚边界管理合作

自独立以来,中亚国家的边界管理一直无法有效保障该地区安全,也未能起到促进该地区经济发展的作用.欧盟为保证在中亚的能源和安全利益,积极推广欧盟边界一体化管理经验,主要通过BOMCA(边界管理)和CADAP(毒品行动)两个援助项目予以实施.欧盟援助下的中亚边界合作已初具规模,其最终目的是将中亚国家边界与其东部邻国边界有机连接起来,再将东部邻国边界与欧盟边界有机连接起来,形成从欧盟到中亚统一而有效的边界管理体制.     

Central Asia and Xinjiang,China: Emerging energy,economic and ethnic relations

On an energy‐equivalent basis Central Asia is predominantly a gas producing region, with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan contributing substantially to the regional total. Kazakhstan is the primary oil producer in the region. Xinjiang, one of the poorest areas of China, is noted for its vast oil, gas and coal resources, though still largely undeveloped. As a means of facilitating economic development and prosperity in Central Asia and nearby Xinjiang, officials are promoting trade and investment among the countries in the region. This paper examines emerging economic relations within Central Asia and Xinjiang, with a focus on the lucrative oil and gas sectors. Importantly, the cooperation is being influenced by centuries‐old cultural and ethnic ties.