Russia's Policy Towards OPEC

Russia and OPEC are major oil producers. Considering the growing energy demand for the global economy, both parties are consistently increasing their exports of hydrocarbons and developing new supply capacities. Meanwhile, both parties have a mutual interest in creating a stable market by cooperating. However, the likelihood of Russian cooperation with OPEC is largely a function of oil prices and the political relations between Russia and OPEC countries. The following article deals with the relations between Russia and OPEC since the collapse of the USSR to the economic crisis in 2008. The author examines the political, cultural and economic conflicts between the two parties and their different attitudes toward the oil market in order to assess their chance to fully cooperate in the long term.     

俄罗斯的对外政策与中国

俄罗斯对外政策的制定与中俄关系的发展是中俄两国政界、学界都非常关注的问题。目前,普京政府奉行一种积极、独立、全方位、实用的对外政策。作为一种新型的,摆脱了意识形态束缚的战略协作关系,《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》将两国世代友好,永不为敌的思想,以法律形式固定下来。目前的中俄关系处于300年来最好的历史时期。     

俄罗斯的亚太政策

2004年俄罗斯的亚太政策思维出现了新变化,为其在亚太地区的活动开辟了更加广阔的前景.俄罗斯亚太政策有五项目标:一是确保远东地缘政治安全;二是加强反恐合作,建立"稳定的弧形地带";三是开发西伯利亚和远东,融入亚太经济;四是扩大机器设备出口;五是推销军火.俄罗斯以在亚太地区的双边和多边关系为其活动支点,当前的活动重心是强化地缘经济联系,并已有所进展.但是,一些业已存在的问题仍会妨碍它与亚太国家的经济合作.     

俄罗斯移民政策弊端解析

俄罗斯还不是真正意义上的移民国家,其接收各类外来移民(定居移民、劳务移民和留学移民等)的历史并不长。从国民性格角度看,俄罗斯社会缺乏安全感,在制定移民政策时,总是将安全考量放在第一位。俄移民领域的管理因而具有浓重的“强力”色彩,“经济”和“融合”的成分则相对不足。当前俄移民政策领域存在诸多弊端,如融合政策缺失,腐败问题严重,统计工作不到位,移民政策缺乏系统性和连贯性等。为构建具有吸引力的移民政策,俄罗斯学界提出很多建设性主张,如必须为引进和利用外国劳动力制定简单透明的规则和程序;必须使移民政策的实施由单独的联邦非强力部门主管;必须要有保障移民融合的基础设施,维护移民的权利,反对影子就业和社会隔离;公开承认移民对于国家经济的作用,对居民解释实行移民政策的各种动机,创造出移民和社会可以有效协作的氛围。这些主张能否得以落实,还有待进一步观察。     

俄罗斯对朝鲜半岛政策评述

本文从分析俄联邦外交政策构想入手,考察俄对朝鲜半岛政策的理论框架,通过分析俄在朝鲜半岛的外交实践,勾画出俄对朝鲜半岛政策的基本轮廓,最后探讨俄对朝鲜半岛政策的影响及其未来走向.     

俄罗斯空天政策调整:实践与创新

近年来,世界主要国家以资金和技术为支持,以空天一体、军民融合为主要逻辑,从科技实力、人才素质培养、军队组织结构以及国际合作等多维度加强国家空天实力.在此背景下,太空军事化和太空资源争夺进程加剧,各国军用与民用空天技术竞争烈度均不断提高,美俄主导的空天领域二元权力格局被打破.鉴于上述形势,乌克兰危机以来俄罗斯政府参考世界主要国家空天战略的发展趋势,结合自身实际情况,对国家空天政策进行了一系列调整.此番调整在延续政策传统的同时,优化俄罗斯国家航天集团内部的权责关系和管理结构,注重国家实战能力和创新能力培育,展示了俄罗斯以硬实力为基础维护国家安全,以软实力为补充促进国家空天实力可持续发展和跃升的战略目标与实施逻辑.     

The Evolution of Malcolm Fraser's China Policy

This article explores the evolution of Malcolm Fraser's views on China. While Gough Whitlam is fondly remembered as a trailblazer for normalizing Australia‐China relations, Fraser was a pioneer in rendering a sense of bipartisanship in Australia's China policy. Fraser was not initially a Sino‐enthusiast, however. He came from a background of staunch anti‐Communism and throughout the 1950s and 1960s believed that China posed a major threat to stability in the Asia‐Pacific. The Liberal Party fiercely opposed the Whitlam government's decision to normalise diplomatic relations with China in 1972. Following the Whitlam dismissal in 1975, Fraser became Prime Minister and, in what seemed to be an abrupt departure from the Liberal Party's position, thoroughly embraced relations with China. As Leader of the Opposition, Whitlam called out the hypocrisy of the Liberal Party's radical policy shift. This study examines the domestic and international dynamics that shaped Fraser's views on China and ultimate adoption of a successful China policy. This is the untold story of a crucial turning point in Australia‐China relations under the leadership of a conservative government, in which a strong relationship with China became a cornerstone of bipartisan Australian foreign policy.     

Russia's Foreign Policy Towards North Africa in the Wake of the Arab Spring

Since coming to power in 2000, Russian president Vladimir Putin has tried to construct a narrative of regaining Russia's status as a major global power. However, in practice the Kremlin has yet to create a coherent strategy or achieve a sense of a co-ordinated foreign policy. While North Africa has not been at the forefront of this narrative, recently Moscow has intensified its diplomatic links and cooperation with the regimes in the region. The Arab Spring presented Russian policy makers with a series of challenges regarding the uncertainty of the developments in the region, but also with renewed economic opportunities. This profile analyses Moscow's relationships with the countries in North Africa (Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria) in the wake of the Arab Spring. In each case the Kremlin aimed to take advantage of the new opportunities without really being guided by an overarching strategy for the region. However, Russia increasingly seems to be keen to position itself in the region as an alternative to the EU or the US, not least in light of the current war in Ukraine.     

俄罗斯的“主权民主”思想

以普京2005年国情咨文为标志,俄罗斯提出了主权民主思想。当前,主权民主思想对于俄罗斯发展的重要意义已经超出了意识形态的范畴,它反映了俄罗斯联邦当前和今后一段时期的状态。本文论述了俄罗斯主权民主思想提出的历史背景、形成基础、发展过程、政治内涵、政治影响及其政治前景。     

印度外交政策的演变

本文阐述了印度独立后外交政策的确立及发展趋势,分析了印度谋求世界大国地位和主宰南亚地区的外交战略和策略.     

2008—2020年俄罗斯地方政治态势演变及其影响

2020年1月,普京宣布政治改革初步方案,俄罗斯政治将在联邦层面发生巨大变化。同年9月13日,在俄罗斯地方选举中“统俄党”大获全胜。普京的一系列政治操作——政府重组、宪法修正似乎已初见成效。实际上,俄罗斯政治在地方层面上已经发生许多变化。通过使用python语言自编程序从俄罗斯中央选举委员会的官方网站抓取相关数据,本文研究了从2008年至2020年的情况,发现普京及“统俄党”在地方政治中的支持度明显不如在联邦中央,自2018年以来其他党派赢得一些地方选举的趋势仍在延续甚至加强,但“统俄党”在地方的表现未直接影响到联邦层级。从政治、经济、民生角度解读俄罗斯地方与中央政治态势的显著差异十分重要。未来俄罗斯存在普京续任总统或“统俄党”顺利推出新人执行类似普京政策的可能,但也不能排除“统俄党”落选反对派上台的可能性。俄罗斯政局的下一个重要观察点是2021年第八届国家杜马选举。     

The Evolution of Innovation Policy Governance Systems and Policy Capacities in the Baltic States

This paper analyzes the evolution of innovation policy (IP) governance systems in the Baltic States and discusses how this progression has influenced the development of long-term IP capacities. The Baltics must attend to their long-term policy capacities as they are going through a ‘catch-up’ process while being influenced by both historical socioeconomic legacies and pressures of the global political economy. At the same time, they have delegated key policy activities away from centers of policy making and moved toward increasingly fragmented IP governance models, which provide narrow feedback and policy learning mechanisms that complicate the creation of long-term policy capacities.     

The Political Implications of Russia's Resource-Based Economy

Abstract

A political economist explores the question of Russia's “resource curse.” He analyzes the links between resource wealth and politics, asking why resource-based economies are more likely than others to suffer from poor governance. In an investigation grounded in the political economy literature on the resource curse, several specific claims about the nature of politics and governance in resource-based economies are identified. Russia's recent experience is assessed in relation to those claims.     

论战后泰国对华政策的演变

二战后,泰国对华政策经历了冷战时期和冷战后两个阶段.冷战期间,在泰美关系演变和泰国自身安全利益需要的双重因素影响下,泰国对华政策经历了从敌视到合作、从合作到结盟两个阶段.冷战后,在国际政治格局大调整和大变动的背景下,中国在东南亚的战略地位较冷战时期虽有所下降,但泰国在一定程度上仍支持中国在东南亚地区发挥作用,对华奉行谨慎和务实的"调适性"政策,中泰从战略伙伴发展为经济伙伴.     

The Impact of WTO Accession on Russia's Agriculture

The article analyzes the impact of WTO accession on Russia's agricultural sector. Three aspects of WTO rules that will affect Russian agriculture are examined: (1) financial support from the Russian government, (2) market access for foreign imports, and (3) market access for Russia's food exports. Addressing the question of positive and negative impacts on Russia's agricultural sector, the article asks if a pessimistic view that sees primarily negative consequences as a result of accession is justified. Claims made by skeptics who are dismissive of the impact WTO entry will have on Russian agriculture are also considered.     

日本财政预算理念的演变、政策实践及启示

日本庞大的政府债务问题一直是学界关注的热点。从日本财政预算理念的视角,对这一问题进行分析,有利于深层次理解日本财政困境的成因。日本作为世界重要经济体,经历了战后迅速崛起到经济高速发展再到经济低迷的发展道路,与之相对应,其财政预算理念总体经过平衡预算理念、周期性预算平衡、新自由主义财政理念、重拾凯恩斯主义财政理念等四个阶段。日本财政预算理念与财政政策实践过程中的经验与教训,对中国财政政策的制定和经济发展具有一定的借鉴意义。     

欧盟环境政策的有效性分析:目标演进与制度因素

欧盟环境政策从积极应对环境问题,逐步发展到由环境推动其技术、经济、贸易,以及政治等全面的全球战略,同时环境政策也从共同市场的衍生品走向较完备的独立体系。政策目标的有效性使欧盟的国际地位及在全球环境问题上的话语权得到显著提高,环境政策成为欧盟谋求全球竞争力和战略地位的关键因素之一。作为目前拥有27个成员国的超国家组织,欧盟如何确保环境政策目标从欧盟层面到成员国,再到地方的传导和实施?本文在简要梳理欧盟环境政策目标演进的基础上,对确保欧盟环境政策目标得以实现(有效性)的制度因素进行分析和论述。     

The Evolution of Chinese Foreign Policy: New Incentives with Slowing Growth

Abstract

Rising powers such as the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience two distinct stages of relative capability growth. China is currently in the first stage of growth, which is defined by increasingly rapid expansion and incentives for foreign policy accommodation. As the PRC shifts to the second stage, however, relative growth will slow, and leaders in Beijing will be presented with new incentives for foreign policy confrontation. This article formalizes a two-stage model of relative power growth and argues that China's shift to the second stage of growth will threaten regional and global stability. During this shift, the key to international security will be a coordinated, multilateral effort that responsibly balances China's growing power with a similarly expanded international role for China.