A Landlord's Notice to Quit: The May 2012 Municipal Elections in Italy

This article explores the significance of the local elections of May 2012 for the general direction of change in Italian politics. The forces of the centre-right were deserted en masse but without those of the centre-left effectively capitalising on the discontent, which was, instead, expressed by the spectacular advance of the ‘non-party’, the almost completely novel Five-Star Movement. As the last major contest on the political agenda before the next general election due in no more than a year, the May outcome revealed just how difficult it was likely to be for either of the two coalitions to obtain a clear victory on that occasion. The article discusses the extent and the nature of these difficulties – deriving from voters' clear rejection of ‘politics as usual’ – by analysing the run-up, the campaign, the outcome and the aftermath of the May elections.     

Elites' and Voters' Attitudes towards Austerity Policies and their Consequences in Greece and Portugal

This article analyses the attitudes of the political elite and voters in Greece and Portugal vis-à-vis the Troika bailouts, austerity policies and the attribution of responsibilities for the crisis. Using both elite and mass surveys with similar questions, the article explores to what extent the elites and voters share similar attitudes, what might explain possible differences between these two groups and between the two countries and what this information can tell us about the quality of political representation in Greece and Portugal. The differences between the countries are explained mainly by the severity of the crisis and austerity policies in each country, but also by the diversity of political conditions.     

In the Shadow of Grexit: The Greek Election of 17 June 2012

This article provides an overview and analysis of the Greek elections of June 2012. Placing the elections within the broader framework of the Greek socio-political and economic context, it discusses the electoral campaign and results, juxtaposing them to the 6 May electoral round. The election results confirmed many of the trends of the previous round, including electoral volatility, the fragmentation of the party system and the rise of anti-establishment forces. The main difference was the entrenchment of the pro- versus anti- bailout division and the prominence of the question of Greece's continued eurozone membership.     

The 2014 Local Elections in Greece: Looking for Patterns in a Changing Political System

In May 2014, municipal and regional elections were held in Greece, concurrently with European elections. This was the first electoral test after the 2012 twin earthquake elections, which marked the beginning of a radical restructuring of the Greek political system. The fragmentation and inconsistency of voting behaviour across different polls in 2014 indicate that Greek politics remains in a transitional phase whose final outcome is still contested. Other characteristics of the elections, including the high proportion of independent candidates, the radical renewal of political personnel and the emergence of Berlusconism in two major municipalities, underline the continuing lack of legitimacy of the political system.     

Representation and Austerity Politics: Attitudes of Greek Voters and Elites Compared

Drawing on surveys of voters and MPs in Greece, this article analyses elite–mass interaction on key policy (austerity, European integration, immigration) and ideological issues after the 2012 elections. We find that while for the government parties, New Democracy and PASOK, the level of congruence is quite high, MPs from opposition parties (SYRIZA, Golden Dawn) place themselves in more exposed positions in comparison with their voters. The observed substantial variation in the intensity and direction of congruence, across parties and issue preferences in Greece, reinforces the view that the dimensionality of political contestation is not reducible to a single ideological dimension.     

The Distributional Impact of Austerity and the Recession in Southern Europe

Southern European welfare states are under stress. On the one hand, the recession has been causing unemployment to rise and incomes to fall. On the other hand, austerity has affected the capacity of welfare states to protect those affected. This paper assesses the distributional implications of the crisis in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal from 2009 to 2013. Using a microsimulation model, we disentangle the first-order effects of tax–benefit policies from the broader effects of the crisis, and estimate how its burden has been shared across income groups. We conclude by discussing the methodological pitfalls and policy implications of our research.     

The Impact of the Economic Crisis on the Ideological Space in Portugal and Greece: A Comparison of Elites and Voters

This work addresses the dimensions and content of ideological space in Portugal and Greece after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis and the imposition of austerity policies in the two countries. By examining both elite interviews and public opinion data, the article principally attempts to determine whether the economic crisis has created a new division in ideological space by cross-cutting or completely replacing older ones. In addition, we attempt to gauge the position of crisis-related issues relative to issue divides on European integration and globalisation which, up to now, have been dormant in Southern European countries.     

Political Representation in Bailed-out Southern Europe: Greece and Portugal Compared

The emergence of the economic and financial crisis has already shown important electoral and political consequences in southern Europe. Drawing on the experience of two bailed-out countries, Greece and Portugal, we use original data collected before and after 2008 to examine how patterns of political representation have changed during this period. We argue that austerity measures have significantly affected the way MPs represent their electorates, namely in terms of policy congruence. In addition, the economic crisis has also deepened the legitimacy crisis in both countries. Finally, we find that the short-term impact of the crisis has had a greater impact on voters' attitudes than on those of their representatives.     

Support for Democracy in Times of Crisis: Diffuse and Specific Regime Support in Portugal and Greece

In the context of a cross-national economic crisis, questions about democratic legitimacy are again topical. We explore the question of democratic legitimacy in Portugal and Greece by employing the conceptual differentiation between diffuse and specific regime support. Our findings indicate that while specific support has fallen in both countries, only Greece has experienced a precipitous fall in diffuse support, suggesting a link between regime performance and support for democracy. Individual-level analyses do not reveal any clear patterns concerning the impact of long-term societal factors or short-term economic considerations. Due to data quality limitations the paper has a predominately exploratory nature.     

The Rise of Golden Dawn: The New Face of the Far Right in Greece

The article examines the rise of the one of the most extremist political parties in Europe, Golden Dawn. It sketches the historical trajectory of the Greek far right, examines the ideological, organisational and voter profile of Golden Dawn, and offers possible explanations for its breakthrough in the 2012 elections. The article shows how the economic crisis has brought a massive realignment of the Greek electorate away from mainstream parties, giving rise to anti-system and anti-immigrant sentiments. Golden Dawn's violent tactics have allowed the party to establish an anti-system and anti-immigrant profile and capitalise on these sentiments. The party's future will depend on its capacity to absorb organisationally any future tensions between party pragmatists and idealists.     

Government and Democracy in Mexico's Federal District, 1997–2001: Cárdenas, the PRD and the Curate's Egg

This paper analyses the challenges facing the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) administration when it became the first elected government of the Federal District in 1997. Through a daily review of press coverage between December 1997–December 2000, complemented by intensive interviewing during summer 1999, five areas of policy-making activity are analysed and evaluated. The policies entrained and their outcomes show significant advances in decentralization, devolution, and intergovernmental liaison, as well as modest improvements in environmental contamination and reduced crime, although they did not meet the high expectations generated during the Cárdenas campaign for election. However, the fresh image and invigorated confidence that his replacement Rosario Robles brought to the PRD was key in the PRD's success in the July 2nd 2000 DF elections won by López Obrador. The new administration will have to confront a more plural government structure, including five of the sixteen delegaciones and an evenly divided Legislative Assembly. López Obrador has a full six years in which to prove that a left-of-centre political party is capable of developing a 'Third Way' of governance in the DF.     

Losers' Second Chances and Control of the Party Machine: Aspirant Premiers in Regional Spain

In parliamentary democracies, controlling party machines has traditionally been a key asset for nascent political leaders, allowing them to continue in their position even after suffering a bad electoral start. Recent research suggests that in ‘old democracies’ this is no longer the case. Seeking to find whether this finding also applies to ‘young democracies’, the article analyses a dataset (built by the author) of candidates from the main national parties for the premiership of the Spanish Comunidades Autónomas, to ask whether being party chair increases the chances of ‘reselection’ after losing a first election. I conclude that in Spain, an example of a ‘young’ democracy, party machines still play a fundamental role at the start of politicians' leadership careers.     

危机中的俄罗斯:一个超级能源大国的终结

叶利钦时期俄罗斯的掠夺式资本主义导致了后苏联时期俄罗斯经济转型的灾难性后果。普京当政后对这一政策进行了大幅修正,转而奉行传统俄罗斯式的反市场经济模式。强力部门人士进入权力核心,国家控制取代市场运营成为主要战略。重组能源部门并借此巩固新的政治权力基础,进而恢复俄罗斯超级大国地位,构成了普京当局的优先政策。俄罗斯经济在普京作为俄罗斯总统任内的强势复苏似乎标志着俄构建能源超级大国的战略进展顺利,但金融危机的冲击暴露了现存俄罗斯制度的危险性。俄已经错过了调整经济结构的宝贵机会,克里姆林宫将能源同时作为财富增长和外交杠杆的时代已经结束。在这一背景下,梅普共治体制的改革以及经济政策的调整也许将成为可能。但历史的惯性和重负经常使俄在经历混乱失序后回归原点。俄罗斯市场经济的转型必将是一个漫长的过程。     

民主选举与社会分裂——东亚民主转型国家与地区的政治与政局

东亚民主转型国家和地区发生的社会分裂与其实行的民主制度之间存在较强的关联性。在经济发展不平衡、贫富差距大、民族国家意识淡泊及选举文化有欠成熟的情况下,参与选举的政治势力和社会群体倾向于将投票及相关活动视为扩大自身利益和削弱对方力量的机会,导致不同政治势力和社会群体之间的对立和冲突超出可控范围。     

Voters’ Knowledge of Their Representatives: The Direct and Conditioned Effects of Parliamentary Work

This article examines factors that influence voters’ knowledge of their representatives, a key element in securing the responsiveness and accountability of parliamentarians. We argue that the parliamentary work of MPs (Members of Parliament) benefits incumbents through increased name recall, and that this relationship is conditional on: the incumbents’ candidacy; the voters’ political competence; and their ideological proximity with their representatives. Combining data on French MPs’ activities with a 2007 CSES post‐election survey enables us to test our hypotheses, while controlling for confounding factors. The empirical analysis demonstrates that some parliamentary activities increase the voters’ capacity to recall the name of their MPs. The latter are therefore incentivised to be responsive to and serve their constituents. However, we also find that voters’ political competence and ideological proximity with their MP alter the relationship between parliamentary work and name recall. This may potentially introduce some biases in the democratic process of accountability.     

Neo-Nazism in an Established Democracy: The Persistence of Golden Dawn in Greece

The literature predicts that extremist right-wing parties like the Greek Golden Dawn (GD) are doomed to stay in the margins of electoral competition, scaring away voters with their authoritarian views and violent tactics. Defying scholarly expectations and despite the criminal prosecution of its leadership, GD increased its electoral strength in the May 2014 European elections. The article contrasts the neo-Nazi GD with Western European radical right parties and examines the factors that facilitated the persistence of such an extreme political party in an established European democracy. It shows how GD managed to capitalise on the de-legitimation of Greek political institutions and, through its organisational activity, present itself as a socially legitimate anti-system alternative.     

Identifying with the Nation: Spain's Left-Wing Citizens in an Age of Crisis

This study analyses the extent, sense, and strategies employed by sympathisers with Spanish state-wide left-wing parties to ‘reconstruct’ their affective ties with the Spanish nation after the ‘monopolisation of patriotism’ by Franco's regime. Such an undertaking is further complicated within the context of economic crisis and intensified peripheral nationalism found in Catalonia and the Basque Country. This article applies qualitative analysis to the discourse of left-wing participants from 11 focus groups held in March 2012 amidst the economic (and political) crisis. As expected, this context of crisis favoured the emergence of explicit discourse on the Spanish nation, providing an opportunity to gain a better understanding of its nature. Findings show that welfare nationalism and social patriotism define the kind of attachment developed by the interviewees towards Spain better than the concept of constitutional patriotism, or any kind of ethnic-cultural feeling of belonging.     

经济危机、社会政策和经济发展:俄罗斯的经验

苏联解体之后,俄罗斯的社会政策保持了基本的连续性。尤其是叶利钦之后的俄罗斯,政府对社会保障和改善民生进行了巨大的投入,居民收入的增长和生活的改善非常明显。经济危机爆发之后,俄罗斯反危机政策更是赋予了社会政策以特别的使命,不仅缓解了危机的烈度,也起到了社会稳定器的作用。俄罗斯社会政策解决了国家长期发展需要面对的两个重要问题:一个是国家长期发展的人力资本积累问题,另一个是社会扩大再生产的可持续性问题。