Linking national and global population agendas: case studies from eight developing countries

This comparative study of the determinants of family planning policy initiation and implementation focuses on four pairs of countries: Zambia/Zimbabwe, Algeria/Tunisia, Pakistan/Bangladesh, and Philippines/Thailand. The conclusion is drawn that global efforts had an influence on national policy makers and on putting family planning issues on the policy agenda. Global impacts were affected by national economic and social conditions and the broader political and economic relations with Western countries. The absolute level of economic development was found to be unrelated to the timing of initiation of family planning on national policy agendas. Stronger national family planning programs occurred in countries where policy makers linked economic development at whatever level with the need to limit population growth. Pakistan and Thailand in the 1960s illustrated this commitment to family planning programs, and Zambia and Algeria illustrated the lack of connection between development and population growth at the policy level and the lack of family planning on the policy agenda. Affiliation with the West during the 1960s meant early initiation of family planning in Pakistan/Bangladesh and Philippines/Thailand. Stronger commitment to program implementation occurred only in Thailand during the 1970s and Zimbabwe during the 1980s. Commitment lessened in the Philippines and Pakistan. Program implementation and national support of family planning were viewed as also dependent upon domestic factors, such as sufficient resources. Algeria/Tunisia and Zambia/Zimbabwe were countries that promoted family planning only after national political ideology shifted and anti-imperialist sentiments subsided. The impact of the international Cairo conference on these countries was minimal in terms of policy change. Most of the countries however desired greater support from donors. Even objections from the Vatican and internal domestic pressures were insufficient to prevent countries such as the Philippines and Pakistan from supporting the Cairo Plan of Action and a family planning and reproductive health agenda. Bangladesh and Pakistan are given as examples of countries where differences in the focus of foreign aid impacted on the national support for social services.     

PUBLIC BUDGETING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EVOLUTION AND PRACTICE OF AN IDEA

One of the major dimensions of public budgeting relates to the generation of growth, employment, and more favorable income redistribution in the economy. This dimension had come to acquire a good deal of importance during the last seventy years. The use of public budgeting for purposes of promoting economic growth, employment, income distribution, has so far been considered as a part of development economics in general, and more specifically, as a part of economic planning. Indeed, such use has been so extensive that it is difficult to consider budgeting for economic development without a consideration of organized economic planning and associated formulation of medium term and annual plans. Planning itself has gone through several vicissitudes during these decades. As an extension, budgeting too has gone through several phases. By 1985, nearly 300 plans were formulated by developing countries. During the same period, the approaches in industrial countries of the west incorporated some elements of organized planning into their budgetary systems. By early 1990s, however, there was a noticeable sense of fatigue with planning. The state which was seen thus far as a solution to market failure, came to be viewed as a major problem in itself, standing between the legitimate aspirations of the community and their realization. Countries, particularly those belonging to the Soviet block, moved away from planning for economic development and came to adopt market friendly policies. In the process, several countries have abandoned formulation of economic development plans. In these countries, there has been a revival, and, therefore, strengthening of public budget as the one and only instrument of economic development conceived, sponsored, funded, and to a significant extent, implemented by the government. Plans, which at one stage had generated the illusion of permanence, proved after all, to be as transient as many other things in the world.     

The Role of Non -Economic Drivers in Development Planning: The Case of South Korea and Turkey

ABSTRACT

The relationships between economic growth and planning strategies have been debated in different disciplines of social science. However, the emphasis has been more on structural and theoretical assumptions of planning and economics at the expense of other important non-economic and institutional factors that include social, cultural, political, and administrative dimensions. To explain the different approaches and outcomes of development planning, one needs to examine other factors that influence the nature of these plans and why they have been adopted. Using rigorous systematic and thematic review of government reports, academic publications and data from international organizations, this comparative study reveal the unique role non-economic factors play in countries’ development. It has been revealed that these factors not only influence the nature of planning strategies adopted by governments but also affect how these plans are implemented. Since South Korea and Turkey have achieved impressive economic growth over the last half a century, they have been selected as a case study to examine the role non-economic factors in their respective developments.     

Military–economic planning in socialist Hungary: The history of the general organisational department of the National Planning Office, 1948–1971

This article analyses the institutional framework of military–economic and defence industrial planning in Hungary in the Socialist period. At the beginning of the 1950s the Soviet military planning system was mechanically adopted in Hungary and during the Korean War a system of general mobilisation was developed, and the whole economy was militarised. Although some limitations were introduced into this structure in the following years, it was only in the 1960s that the planning methods and apparatus were reorganised and modernised. It was at this time that the implications of atomic war were brought into the considerations of the planning office, resulting in radical change.     

Policy analysis applications of remi economic forecasting and simulation models

This article surveys the ways that regional economic forecasting and policy analysis models have been used to provide information as an input for policy decision making in the public and private sectors. The major areas are as follows: forecasting and planning; economic development; transportation; energy and natural resources; taxation, budget, and welfare; United States policies; and environmental policies. The survey indicates that, while analysis and research may be required to prepare for a model simulation, the predicted economic effects of a policy can be very important information as an input for a wide range of policy decisions.     

Ideas,Economics and 'the Sociology of Supply': Explanations for Fertility Decline in Bangladesh

The persistence of high rates of fertility in Bangladesh, despite the poverty of its population, has been given alternative, and apparently competing, explanations, including the absence of effective forms of family planning, the resilience of pro-natalist values and norms and the existence of material constraints which led to the reliance on children as economic assets. The recent and dramatic declines in fertility rates, in the absence of any apparent major economic changes in the decades prior to the onset of fertility decline, appears to contradict materialist explanations for fertility behaviour and to support explanations which stressed ideas about the acceptability of birth control and the availability of the means for doing so. This article argues that such an interpretation is based on an historical analysis of events in Bangladesh. It offers an alternative explanation which stresses socio-economic change as the primary motor for change in family size preferences, but which recognises the role of modern forms of family planning in facilitating the pace of the resulting fertility decline.     

The politics of family planning in the Maghrib

This article uses a comparative case study approach to relate policy outcomes in terms of family planning to the patterns of political forces observed in the 3 Maghrib states of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. It is suggested that official support for a strong family planning program may be linked to recognition of the problem of low labor absorption and to concrete steps taken to counter the problem. The article discusses different vantage points for approaching the political context of family planning and distinguishes between the use of family planning as an instrument of social policy and as an instrument of economic policy. Ideological reasons for opposition to or support of family planning are then outlined. The colonial experience of the 3 states is differentiated and a chronological account of their family planning programs is provided. The political systems and leadership of the 3 countries are separately discussed in greater detail, after which the influence of elite groups on family planning programs and activities in each country is assessed. Developments in the 3 countries since 1978 are then sketched. The author concludes that the relative importance of policies toward employment and women's status in connection with support for family planning has probably varied over time, with economics playing a greater role in the 1970s. The activities of non-regime political actors were found to be very significant in formulation of population policies in Algeria and Morocco but less so in Tunisia.     

Getting Armed Groups to the Table: peace processes,the political economy of conflict and the mediated state

Abstract

This article connects the literature on the political economy of conflict with the mediation of peace processes and elaborates the conceptual and practical value offered by this perspective. It shows that armed conflicts and groups have economic dimensions that should be recognised and managed in peace processes. An economic perspective helps to understand the multiple disputes within an armed conflict, the disposition of armed groups to engage, and the economic interests of the parties. Focusing on mediated states opens new avenues of engagement through perceiving alternative sub-state authorities and economic networks as an opportunity for dispute resolution. Overall the political economy of conflict and the mediated state offer new vantage points to shape the planning and management of peace processes.     

ECONOMICS AND THE POVERTY OF SOCIAL PLANNING

This article examines the reasons for the dismal state of social planning in Britain today. Several different explanations for this situation are discussed including its poor track-record, official reluctance to contemplate the future, the circumscribed and narrowly conceived way it is approached, and the ill coordinated and fragmented structure of the social services. While all these are seen to offer part of the answer, it is argued that the main obstacle to social planning lies in the subordination of social goals to economic objectives; a fact itself rooted in the persistence of the 'public burden model' of social expenditure. Finally, the implications of this analysis for social policy research are discussed.     

Micro-Finance,Women’s Empowerment and Fertility Decline in Bangladesh: How Important Was Women’s Agency?

Abstract

As Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen has argued “[Bangladesh’s development achievements have] important lessons for other countries across the globe, [in particular a focus on] reducing gender inequality”. A major avenue through which this emphasis has been manifest lies, according to this narrative, in enhancements to women’s agency for instrumental and intrinsic reasons particularly through innovations in family planning and microfinance. The “Bangladesh paradox” of improved wellbeing despite low economic growth over the last four decades is claimed as a paradigmatic case of the spread of both modern family planning programmes and microfinance leading to women’s empowerment and fertility reduction. In this paper we show that the links between microfinance, empowerment and fertility reduction, are fraught with problems, and far from robust; hence the claimed causal links between microfinance and family planning via women’s empowerment needs to be further reconsidered.     

Does it matter ‘who governs?’ Governance networks,local economic development policies,and the Great Recession

This study purports to examine whether governance networks influence cities’ use of local economic development policies, specifically business incentives, and if the role of networks changed during the Great Recession. Using American cities that responded to the International City/County Management Association’s Economic Development Survey in 2004 and 2009, hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to identify groups of cities with similar network membership patterns. The results of negative binomial regression models indicate that before the recession, the total number of actors participating in the network played a larger role in the total number of incentives provided by cities as well as the use of tax incentives. This changed in 2009 when network type emerged as the important governance-based determinant of the same variables. The results also suggest that traditional theories of economic development do not hold during times of economic and fail to explain the use of planning and labour incentives.     

Manpower planning and labour markets in developing countries: A case study of west Malaysia

In the past, aggregative studies and forecasts have dominated manpower planning in developing countries. Such exercises, however, tend to assume away or ignore a host of institutional factors that have far‐reaching influences on the determination of wages and employment and on the efficiency of labour markets. Consequently, this paper argues that disaggregated manpower research, focussed on current problems and conditions in employment markets, would be far more useful to economic development policies than the sort of abstract macro‐planning aimed at forecasts of long‐term manpower requirements which has been highly fashionable during the last decade.

The theme of the paper is substantiated with reference to the organization and workings of labour markets in West Malaysia. It is found that institutional and economic factors peculiar to that country have resulted in three ‘insulated’ labour markets, one each for Malays, Chinese and Indians, with practically no mobility of labour across insulated markets, even in widely divergent supply‐demand conditions. The final sections of the paper briefly examine the implications of insulated markets for manpower and economic policies.     

Structural deficits and infrastructure investment in the u.s. economy: an emerging policy and management crisis in capital expenditures

This article examines the impact and magnitude of underinvestment in the public infrastructure of the economy of the United States, and points to its implications for deficit reduction and economic growth. It becomes evident that the lack of both a complete inventory of infrastructure investment needs and a coherent future investment strategy at the federal level have led to a situation where the volume of public works investment in the United States has fallen critically short of what may be considered an optimum level. Recognizing the limitations of capital budgeting, a management perspective is taken in which increased planning and policy development at the national level emerge as necessities in achieving the type of results required to enhance economic growth and responsibly reduce the national deficit.     

Discourses on Poverty: emerging perspectives on a caring economy

In The Real Wealth of Nations, Eisler proposes a holistic view of the economy, which would include the caring sectors—the household, unpaid community work and the environment—as an alternative to market-oriented economic models that have proven ineffective in dealing with the problems facing our local and global communities. Her inclusion of language change as part of a strategy for economic transformation implicitly recognises the socially constitutive function of discourse, a notion put forth by critical linguists. Based on these economic and linguistic perspectives, this article reports on a study that examined the social knowledge about poverty constructed through selected discourses to determine whether they communicate a narrow or holistic view of the economy. It proposes that economic planning for poverty reduction build upon the process of language change towards a caring economy as revealed by the study.     

Dynamic properties of Taiwanese fertility, 1950–1972

This extensive statistical study focuses on fertility patterns during the postwar period in Taiwan. The analytical technique is economic, with socioeconomic variables generally considered the important determinants of fertility; on the other hand, female education and labor force participation were seen to exert a strong negative effect on fertility. Taiwan has reduced birth rates nearly 50% in the period from the 1950s-1970s. In 1972, Taiwan's birth rate/woman was 3.4, a 50% reduction from 1950, generally attributed to institution of a well-conceived family planning program in 1964. It is hypothesized that the socioeconomic forces (presented in 7 comprehensive tables) which influenced negatively the rate of births, worked primarily to reduce excess rather than desired fertility. The clear connection between women's participation in the labor force and reduction in desired fertility leads to the suggestion that stronger economic incentives must be presented to women. Given the already wide availability and low cost of birth control devices, further fertility reductions caused by expanded participation in the family planning program are not likely to reduce desired family size significantly. Instead, it is argued that such reductions tend to occur slowly and to be associated with more economically meaningful roles for women. Analyzed on a cost-benefit basis, the fertility control efforts of the Taiwanese government should be directed to achieving a synchronization between the skill levels demanded by the economy and those acquired in the system of higher education. Economic incentives for fewer births would then augment, rather than offset, the presently extant negative effects of slowly changing attitudinal variables and economic development. The formulation and usefulness of statistical methods are developed extensively within this article.     

Rural housing market response to nonfarm employment growth: an analysis of housing development patterns

This paper describes uses of economic impact models to examine labor force and housing relationships associated with regional employment changes, including area-wide labor demands, expected housing needs in response to changes in the labor force size, and the predicted quantity of new housing units that will be developed. The perspectives analyzed represent important elements in economic development planning, especially in light of the tremendous competition for firms and workers among cities and states in the U.S. today. Rural development officials report difficulty attracting residential labor force members and reason that the absence of housing starts in rural places is inhibiting future growth prospects. The paper demonstrates how input-output, econometric, and spatial analysis methods can be combined to assist decision makers in determining the overall value of regional economic growth and the labor and housing impacts of that growth. Special attention is given to delineating the spatial dimensions of labor and housing markets in rural, urban, and metropolitan settings.     

IMPROVED PERFORMANCE IN LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A WARM EMBRACE OR AN ARTFUL SIDESTEP?

This article examines the extent to which changing approaches to performance management have had an impact on a range of agencies responsible for local economic development programmes in Britain. It explores the possibility that the effectiveness of public programmes could be more sharply highlighted and incorporated in the performance review of organizations. It demonstrates that major improvements have occurred but that overall the planning and management of local economic development remains largely incremental. While the FMI (Financial Management Initiative) has led to greater understanding of the extent to which corporate and programme accountability can be achieved in public agencies, it is not clear that sufficient momentum has been achieved for future changes to be self-generating. Further progress in performance management continues to be dependent on strong external pressures to publicize, probe and reward demonstrable improvements in public sector performance.     

Population growth and foreign policy

Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.     

Short notes on some books received

China's rural enterprises are economic units established by local government in the countryside or by the peasants and they operate outside the planning system. Rural enterprises have grown twice as fast as the rest of the economy since 1984. The rural enterprise sector has so far challenged the urban economy, in both product markets and markets for raw materials. What are the prospects for their relationship ‐ competition or cooperation? To answer the question, we develop a well‐specified but simple model of the rural and urban economies. The rural enterprise boom was caused in this model by the presence of barriers to factor mobility within China, price distortions and the pool of available labour in the countryside. The origins of the boom imply that rural enterprise exports tend to be relatively labour intensive. The complementarities between rural and urban enterprises are likely to dominate their future economic relationship and lead to further growth in the rural enterprise sector.     

Policy guidelines for collective bargaining and family planning

The benfits of establishing family planning through collective bargaining to both labor and management are discussed. Until workers can be convinced that their children will receive health care, education and employment, and that they will be economically secure in old age, it is difficult to convince them of the many benefits of child spacing and small family size. In 1953, it was calculated by management in a Japanese steel factory that about 70% of all acidents could be attributable to difficulties in the private lives of employees. In order to ease problems in the home, collective agreements were initiated by management in the Nippon Express Company to provide family planning services. Labor agreed as long as the workers were to share in the economic awards which came from participation. Costs of implementing the family planning programs were fully offset by the decrease in expenditure on family allowances, confinement, nursing, and so on. In India some ten estates began a program in which a certain amount of money is paid into an account for every month that a woman does not become pregnant. If the woman becomes pregnant, she forfeits a substantial amount of the fund. This money comes directly from the funds which would normally have to be set aside to provide for maternity and child support programs. Certain guidelines are presented in the paper to outline the areas of responsibility of labor and management in the provision of family planning services. Among the many possibilities mentioned is the idea that both labor and management could look into the conceivability of plowing back a portion of whatever savings are accrued by management into a pension scheme to compensate workers for the loss of labor caused by having fewer children than were previously anticipated.