Declining employment among young black less‐educated men: The role of incarceration and child support

In this paper, we explore the continuing decline in employment and labor force participation of nonenrolled Black men between the ages of 16 and 34 who have a high school education or less in the 1980s and 1990s. We focus on two fairly new developments: (1) the dramatic growth in the number of young Black men who have been incarcerated and (2) strengthened enforcement of child support policies. We analyze micro‐level data from the Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Groups (CPS‐ORG), into which state‐level data over time on incarceration rates and child support enforcement have been merged. Our results indicate that previous incarceration and child support enforcement can account for half or more of the decline in employment activity among Black men aged 25–34. Previous incarceration also contributes to the decline among those aged 16–24. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance

For over a half century, various fields in the behavioral and social sciences have debated the appropriateness of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in the presentation and assessment of research results. A long list of criticisms has fueled the so‐called significance testing controversy. The conventional NHST framework encourages researchers to devote excessive attention to statistical significance while underemphasizing practical (e.g., scientific, substantive, social, political) significance. I introduce a simple, intuitive approach that grounds testing in subject‐area expertise, balancing the dual concerns of detectability and importance. The proposed practical and statistical significance test allows the social scientist to test for real‐world significance, taking into account both sampling error and an assessment of what parameter values should be deemed interesting, given theory. The matter of what constitutes practical significance is left in the hands of the researchers themselves, to be debated as a natural component of inference and interpretation.     

The Rise and (Relative) Fall of Earmarks: Congress and Reform, 2006–2010

Congressional earmark reform efforts began in 2006. This paper reviews the literature on earmarks and documents the rise and relative fall in earmark spending using four databases. It identifies and critiques earmark reforms, including congressional rules and initiatives taken by the appropriations committees and congressional party organizations. Rules and committee‐initiated reforms were the most effective, producing significant improvements in transparency and expediting availability of information. The number of earmarks and their dollar value first dropped noticeably in 2007 after an earmark moratorium, then stabilized as reforms were implemented. It is premature to conclude that reforms will alter the policy content of earmarks or their distribution.     

The Politics of Constitutional Change in a Federal System: Negotiating Section 92A of the Canadian Constitution Act (1982)

This article examines the process of constitutional change surroundingthe enactment of the natural-resource amendment (Section 92A)to the Canadian Constitution Act (1982). It traces the motivationsbehind the adoption of the clause to a combination of long-termexogenous factors originating in the OPEC-inspired price risesof the 1970s, and short-term endogenous factors particular toCanada's political and institutional arrangements, includingunpredictable patterns of judicial arbitration of constitutionalissues. The presence of endogenous and exogenous "shocks" tolong-established constitutional modus vivendi allows some predictionsto be made about the general nature and direction of futureconstitutional change. However, the workings of short-term politicaland institutional variables make it impossible to predict theexact content of the constitutional response to such influences.This finding supports Banting and Simeon's hypothesis that constitutionalchange is political process subject to political forces in societyand that constitutional change, like constitution-making, remainsan art and not a science.     

Defensive versus Offensive Approaches to Administrative Reform in France (1988–1997): The Leadership Dilemmas of French Prime Ministers

From 1988 to 1997, all French prime ministers launched administrative reform programs with numerous concerns for increasing efficiency, strengthening responsiveness, or redesigning political and administrative roles within the state. However, these initiatives have never led to radical and disruptive changes. The institutional legacy seems to have strongly constrained the politics of administration. What, then, is the meaning of launching administrative reforms within the French political power configuration, and how does it “fit” with the way leaders try to establish their political authority? This article provides two empirical studies of different prime ministers (Michel Rocard under the Mitterrand presidency and Alain Jupp under the Chirac presidency) that can explain the nature of the French governments' commitments to these issues. It argues that understanding administrative reforms requires a mixture of institutional and actor‐centered explanations, because these policies are really leadership challenges to the preexisting institutional order. As such, they are reflexively shaped or constrained by what they try to control and define. This paper shows that for a French prime minister to define the administration as a problem while building his own leadership can jeopardize the resources he will get from that same bureaucratic administrative system. This “power‐reform dilemma” may explain why administrative reforms have proven more politically effective as an instrument of order‐affirming impulses rather than as a disruptive strategy.