Russia’s image of China and Russian-Chinese relations

Views of China in today's Russia are characterized by great diversity. There are those who stand for strengthening ties with China to counterbalance the West; those who prefer Russia balancing between various power centers; and those who fear China as a growing geopolitical rival with a potential of expanding at the expense of Russian territory. Russia's government for the foreseeable future can be expected to advocate closer ties with China. However, the real question now is not whether a future Russian leadership will advocate a more hostile or more friendly course toward China, but if it will be able to support its wishes (whatever they may be) with the real resources necessary to pursue any consistent policy. Alexander Lukin received his first degree from the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations and a doctorate from Oxford University. He worked at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, Soviet Embassy to the PRC, and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. From 1990 to 1993 he was an elected deputy of the Moscow City Soviet (Council), where he chaired the Sub-Committee for Inter-Regional Relations. He is the author of Russian Democrats: A Study in Political Culture (to be published by Oxford University Press in 1999) and numerous articles on Russian and Chinese politics and Russian-Chinese relations which have been published in Russia, the PRC, the U.S., the UK, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. In 1997/1998 he was a visiting research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. He is currently a research fellow at the Center for International Studies of the Moscow Institute of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Foreign Ministry (MGIMO-University) and an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University.     

Alexandre 1er et le regime representatif

Summary

Alexander I and Representative Government

This analysis of the attitudes of Alexander I towards representative government is based on fifty years of work on Russian political history, and in particular on a study of the international organization of the post‐Napoleonic peace and, more recently, the reign of Alexander I.

In the light of recent events in Russia, this essay suggests some obvious comparisons between Alexander I and Gorbachev. Both wanted to liberalize the government of their empire without damaging the legitimacy of the new institutions to be created with respect to the existing regime. Both were thrown out of power, the former to put a stop to reforms, the latter to speed them up, at the risk of destroying the legitimacy of the central authority over the various parts of the empire.     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

Russia and Japan at a new stage of relations

Today, bilateral relations between Russia and Japan are at an important historical stage, says Alexander Nikolaevich Panov, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Japan. There is a “window of opportunity” to establish a new Russian‐Japanese relationship in the twenty‐first century. The only issue that now awaits resolution is the legal settlement of territorial delimitation. This outstanding issue provides the basis for Russia's proposal to incorporate an agreement concerning territorial demarcation into the treaty on peace, friendship, and cooperation. It is in the interests of both nations to preserve, strengthen, and broaden their bilateral relations and to revitalize and enhance their cooperation in all areas     

The Russian Election of 1993: Public Opinion and the Transition Experience

Two British specialists on Russia report the results of a nationwide survey of 2,030 Russian adults, randomly chosen from each of 50 provinces of the Russian Federation. A survey instrument containing 300 questions was administered in face-to-face interviews during summer 1993, and explored attitudes toward the market, privatization, social order, minority rights, and nationalism. Testing three alternative explanations for the results of the December 1993 Russian elections, the authors present a nuanced argument that the Russian public has been drawing negative lessons about market democracy from the transition itself, as experienced since January 1992. A higher voter turnout, they find, would have augmented the strength of anti-government parties and candidates. Journal of Economic literature, Classification Numbers: H19, P29     

无处不在的身影——东正教介入俄罗斯社会政治生活试析

东正教在俄国远不只是一种宗教,而是俄罗斯文化传承的重要载体,在后苏联成为俄联邦重构的重要社会资源、政治力量和精神动力,被视为是标示俄罗斯民族精神的最重要标志。在后苏联到来过程和重建过程中,东正教扮演了极其重要的角色,而且这种角色源于俄国的历史进程。其实,无论是就基督教神学理论还是就俄国史而言,缺少了对东正教因素的考虑,就无法描述俄国社会进程。近20年来,俄国社会进程和东正教紧密相关,因此,当代俄国人能基于东正教信仰,去批判性地面对后苏联社会变革所带来的各种重大问题。除此之外,东正教还积极介入俄罗斯的对外事务,成为影响俄对外关系的一个不可忽视的重要因素。     

Do Minority Cabinets Govern More Flexibly and Inclusively? Evidence from Germany

A widespread view in political science is that minority cabinets govern more flexibly and inclusively, more in line with a median-oriented and 'consensual' vision of democracy. Yet there is only little empirical evidence for it. We study legislative coalition-building in the German state of North-Rhine-Westphalia, which was ruled by a minority government between 2010 and 2012. We compare the inclusiveness of legislative coalitions under minority and majority cabinets, based on 1028 laws passed in the 1985–2017 period, and analyze in detail the flexibility of legislative coalition formation under the minority government. Both quantitative analyses are complemented with brief case studies of specific legislation. We find, first, that the minority cabinet did not rule more inclusively. Second, the minority cabinet’s legislative flexibility was fairly limited; to the extent that it existed, it follows a pattern that cannot be explained on the basis of the standard spatial model with policy-seeking parties.     

Correspondence

Sir Tony Brenton, formerly British Ambassador to Moscow (2004-2008), considers in this article the Asian dimension of Russia. He considers the historical connections and importance of Asia (as opposed to Europe) in the development of Russia and the historical balance between Asian and European influence. This section pays particular attention to the development of Siberia and early encounters between Russia and China. He then examines shifting Russian attitudes towards Asia at significant moments in Russian history including the 19^th century (the Slavophile Movement), the Communist period, the post-Soviet 1990s and the current era under President Putin. The implications of the Ukraine crisis and the current relationship with China is studied. He concludes with a discussion of whether Russia is likely to see its future orientation as more towards China and Asia, and what implications Russia's deliberation about its future direction has for the western powers.     

Contextualised Capital: Policy Reforms and Inward Flows in Germany

Policy-makers in Germany have implemented, from the early 1990s to the mid 2000s, an impressive set of reforms designed to provide greater legal protection to minority shareholders. These reforms are linked with circumscribed changes: medium and long-term UK/US-based institutional investors have become major shareholders of large German firms; the incursions of short-term institutional investors, in contrast, have been more limited. This outcome highlights the interaction between firm-level institutional arrangements of German companies and the characteristics of different categories of shareholder value oriented funds. Institutional arrangements act as constraints that reduce the range of the strategic options of German firms. However, institutions are not specific enough to translate into predictions about the investment behaviour of different categories of investors who are themselves governed by internally defined rules that affect how they operate within an institutional framework.     

Energy Security and Germany's Response to Russian Revisionism: The Dangers of Civilian Power

This article examines the impact of German dependence on Russian gas supplies for Europe's ability to apply effective sanctions against Russia. It demonstrates that by focusing on the environmental dimensions of energy policy and a policy of rapprochement with Russia, Germany has neglected the security of supply implications of its dependence on Russian gas. The article argues that Germany's excessive energy dependence on Russia has limited the ability of the EU to challenge Russian revisionism by targeting its energy sector through sanctions. The article makes a number of energy policy recommendations which will be essential for Germany to avoid undue Russian influence on its foreign and security policies. The article concludes by exploring the utility of Neoclassical Realism in understanding Germany's approach to energy security. In doing so it highlights the dangers of allowing ideology to cloud a sober assessment of the imperatives of the balance of theat.     

Studentische Hilfskräfte im deutschen Bildungswesen

The article takes a critical look at the situation of graduate assistants at German universities. For this purpose the paper is based on two sociological perspectives. On the one hand, being employed as a student assistant can be regarded as an important individual strategy to gather privileges in the German higher educational system. On the other hand, working as a student assistant is a paradigmatic example of labor conditions in modern society due to the fact that higher qualified persons need to be profoundly flexible and have to work under precarious employment conditions. The analysis highlights that the problematic working conditions of student assistants are caused by the specific structures of the German education system. It is the difference between individual prospects and objective possibilities which makes these precarious labor conditions possible.     

后苏联时期的俄罗斯政治领袖

政治领袖是苏联和俄罗斯政治体系中的关键组成部分,在后苏联时代的俄罗斯政治生活中占有特别重要的地位。俄罗斯政治文化一直偏爱强势而有个性的政治领袖,从1917年以来的苏联领袖大多都秉持了这一特点。改革派领导人戈尔巴乔夫由于自己的优柔寡断而丧失了对于改革乃至国家的控制,而与其个人风格和成长经历迥异的叶利钦经历了一系列复杂的政治斗争,最终成为了新生的俄罗斯联邦的领袖。他推动俄罗斯进行了激进的市场化改革,希望使俄罗斯走上以市场经济为特征的"文明之路",但由于复杂的国际国内环境以及政策方面的失误,这一尝试最终以失败而告终。虽然他是俄罗斯第一任民选总统,但叶利钦自相矛盾的执政风格、不稳定的心理状态和诸多生活上的不良习惯都令人诟病,他虽然赢得了竞选连任,但由于身体原因和杜马掣肘,很难有所作为。在经历了复杂的甄选之后,他选择了普京作为自己的接班人,并且帮助普京顺利当选。有克格勃背景的普京是一位具有开拓精神和无比坚韧的性格的领导人。在接任总理之后,很快凭借自己的超群才能,解决了车臣问题,并且有效提高了社会福利,从而迅速提高了自己的威望,以绝对优势当选总统。执政之后,普京很快推动了俄罗斯政治制度新的"转型",他通过除了暴力之外的一切手段强化国家权力,打击"寡头",取消地方选举,限制独立媒体,通过"西罗维基"掌控权力,最终使整个政权集中于自己的手中,形成了被称为"可控民主"或"主权民主"的普京体制。在八年任期结束后,普京拒绝了第三个总统任期,而选择了一项略显复杂的政治安排。将总统职务交给自己的亲信梅德韦杰夫,本人则以总理和统一俄罗斯党主席的身份继续参政,形成了一种特殊的"双头制"政权,直到2012年重返克里姆林宫。随着时代的变迁,俄罗斯正处于发展的十字路口。普京的重新执政对于俄罗斯未来的改革可能将会是一个积极的因素,因为他拥有足够的权力推动改革的进行。虽然面对诸多不确定的挑战,但仍然有成功的机会。     

MIXED BLOOD: DISCOVERING EURASIANS

A personal journey through the literature by a former journalist with Anglo-Chinese grandsons. He examines Eurasian origins starting from the time of Alexander the Great and notes the way in which the relatively benign view of the early French, Dutch and British colonialists gradually hardened-an attitude reflected in, and justified by, some fairly questionable intellectual theories. Much of his focus is on India and the position of Anglo-Indians who, interestingly, proved that doubts about their loyalty were not well founded. In employment terms they would never be at the top, though equally they were not at the bottom. But the game changed as independence spread through Asia and many Anglo-Indians and other Eurasians left to lead their lives elsewhere.     

The arithmetic of rights: Zionist intellectuals imagining the Arab minority May–July 1938

ABSTRACT

This article examines Zionist debates regarding the status of the Arab minority in the Jewish State following the Royal Commission's recommendation to partition Palestine. Three conclusions arise from the debates: first, that the Zionist leadership regarded the civil and political rights of the Arab minority to be dependent on the power equilibrium between Jews and Arabs in all of Palestine. Second, the Zionist leaders imagined the Jewish State as a parliamentary democracy, but argued that a democratic regime should be created only after a Jewish majority had been achieved. Finally, because democracy in the Jewish State – including minority rights – was dependent on the creation of a Jewish majority, Zionist plans to transfer Arabs out of the Jewish State were not considered by them to be undemocratic, but rather a precondition to the creation of a Jewish and democratic state.     

Party Competition and Government Formation in Germany: Business as Usual or New Patterns?

The process of coalition formation following the 2017 Bundestag election was the most difficult in German post-war history. For the first time, Germany saw negotiations fail, a minority government being discussed as a real possibility, and the federal president involved as formateur in coalition politics. The aim of this contribution is to explain why government formation was so intricate after the 2017 election. To this end, we trace patterns of party politics and the development of the German party system since 2013. We then study general patterns of government formation at the regional and national levels since the 1990s and evaluate whether these have changed with the advent of the right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany. Our analysis of the 2017–2018 government formation is based on a novel expert survey of the policy profiles of German parties on various issue dimensions, conducted in 2017. The results show that the continuation of the incumbent coalition government of Christian and Social Democrats was the most likely outcome, and that the Social Democrats were indeed able to enforce a surpassing share of their policy positions in the final negotiation rounds.     

Akwasidae

This account of a famous Ashanti festival was written by anEwe scholar, who revisited his native country in 1949, after20 years in Europe. In this time he had a varied career, whichinvolved co-operation in anthropological work, the friendshipof certain well-known Swedish and German physicists, a certainpart in the social and intellectual life of Dublin, in whichhe joined from his Lomeshie Research Centre in Londonderry.He wrote a brief history of West African Art, and proposed inquiriesinto indigenous herbal remedies, and various endemic diseases.He has now returned to Kumasi, to set up a new Research Centre.     

Who supported separatism in Donbas? Ethnicity and popular opinion at the start of the Ukraine crisis

Abstract

Donetsk and Luhansk are often labeled pro-Russian regions as a result of the founding of Peoples’ Republics there in spring 2014. This article investigates popular opinion in Donbas before armed conflict began, to determine whether the high concentration of ethnic Russians there drove support for separatism. Analysis of a KIIS opinion poll shows that, on the one hand, ethnic Russian respondents were divided on most separatist issues, with a minority backing separatist positions. On the other hand, they supported separatist issues in larger numbers than both ethnic Ukrainians and respondents with hybrid identities. Thus, while ethnic identity does not produce polarized preferences, it is relevant in shaping political attitudes. Also, analysis of an original database of statements made by Donbas residents indicate that they were motivated to support separatism by local concerns exacerbated by a sense of abandonment by Kyiv rather than by Russian language and pro-Russian foreign policy issues.     

The rise and fall of “Novorossiya”: examining support for a separatist geopolitical imaginary in southeast Ukraine

In the spring of 2014, some anti-Maidan protestors in southeast Ukraine, in alliance with activists from Russia, agitated for the creation of a large separatist entity on Ukrainian territory. These efforts sought to revive a historic region called Novorossiya (“New Russia”) on the northern shores of the Black Sea that was created by Russian imperial colonizers. In public remarks, Vladimir Putin cited Novorossiya as a historic and contemporary home of a two-part interest group, ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking Ukrainians, supposedly under threat in Ukraine. Anti-Maidan agitation in Ukraine gave way to outright secession in April 2014, as armed rebel groups established the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhans’k People’s Republic on parts of the eponymous Ukrainian oblasts. Rebel leaders aspired to create a renewed Novorossiya that incorporated all of eastern and southern Ukraine from Kharkiv to Odesa oblasts. To examine the level of support for this secessionist imaginary in the targeted oblasts, our large scientific poll in December 2014 revealed the Novorossiya project had minority support, between 20 and 25% of the population. About half of the sample believed that the concept of Novorossiya was a “historical myth” and that its resuscitation and promotion was the result of “Russian political technologies.” Analysis of the responses by socio-demographic categories indicated that for ethnic Russians, residents of the oblasts of Kharkiv and Odesa, for older and poorer residents, and especially for those who retain a nostalgic positive opinion about the Soviet Union, the motivations and aims of the Novorossiya project had significant support.     

Equal Performance of Minority and Majority Coalitions? Pledge Fulfilment in the German State of NRW

This study examines how a government’s majority status affects coalition governance and performance. Two steps are investigated: the inclusion of government parties’ electoral pledges into the coalition agreement, and the ability to translate pledges into legislative outputs. The main results of a comparative analysis of 183 pledges of a minority (without a formal support partner) and majority coalition in the German State North Rhine-Westphalia indicate that government parties with minority status include fewer pledges in the coalition agreement. But this does not mean that they also perform badly at pledge fulfilment. In fact, they show an equivalent performance in fulfilling election pledges, at least partially, when compared to majority government parties. However, there is tentative evidence that the prime minister’s party shows a lower quality of pledge fulfilment, as measured by a higher share of partially enacted pledges.     

俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。