Explaining national preferences on the new European banking policy framework: the case of Lithuania

Utilising the Lithuanian case, this article analyses what determines a country’s position on the transfer of national competency over banking policy to the EU level. In contrast to dominant explanations in scholarly literature, this article argues that Lithuania’s support for the banking union can be explained by the general pro-European orientation of the political system in the context of ambiguous aggregate economic costs and the benefits of the new institutional framework. In 2013, the EU Presidency also positively affected Lithuania’s stance. Finally, the decision about when to join the banking union was subordinated to the process of euro accession.     

On the Way to Limited Competitiveness: Political Consequences of the 2011 Electoral Reform in Hungary

This article tests the effects of a new electoral system in Hungary that was introduced by the governing FIDESZ party in 2011. We are especially concerned with the shape of single-member district (SMD) level electoral competition following a significant transformation that tends to be viewed as serving FIDESZ's goal of preserving its constitutional majority. The results show not only transformation of Hungarian electoral politics between 2010 and 2018 elections but also the fact that the return of bipolarization is far from reality in Hungarian electoral politics. On one hand, the reform resulted in an increased number of districts with clear dominance of the two strongest parties nationally, but on the other hand, this trend was connected to asymmetrical bipartism, with clear advantage of the FIDESZ. Furthermore, there was a persistently high number of SMDs where the competition took place between the FIDESZ and one of the third-place parties.     

Electoral Reform as an Engine of Party System Change in Italy

Abstract

After more than forty years of proportional representation, in 1991 Italy embarked on a period of electoral law revision. The ongoing debate about how to engineer an electoral system capable of producing the preferred political outcomes stands out against the stasis in constitutional reform, most recently demonstrated in the rejection by popular referendum of Matteo Renzi’s package of reforms. The extent to which the different electoral reforms have had an impact on Italian politics, especially following the 2005 electoral legislation, can be evaluated by analysing the changing Italian party system over the past decade and beyond in terms of its morphology, dynamics, and party/parliamentary group switching. The 2005 electoral reform has had a clear effect on Italian politics and on the party system, but that effect is unlikely to endure given the highly controversial new electoral law that came into force in 2017.     

Individual and Contextual Determinants of Electoral Participation

Individual‐level explanations of electoral participation typically argue that non‐voting is determined by a combination of facilitative and motivational factors. We advance the argument that, beyond individual characteristics, there are pivotal contextual features which enable or impede individual action through specific incentive structures. Thus, contextual factors influence the individual propensity to vote or to abstain. For the first time the data of Selects 2003 allows for the testing of contextual effects, at least on the cantonal level. Several multilevel analyses show that high party competition, compulsory voting, and strong Catholicism foster individual participation. The findings clearly indicate that an individual's propensity to vote is influenced by personal characteristics as well as by cantonal attributes.     

Pleasures of Late Socialism in Soviet Lithuania: Strategies of Resistance and Dissent

This paper deals with popular perceptions of Soviet ideology during the period of Late Socialism. On the premises of colonial theory, mass communication and pop culture studies, the author argues that even totalitarian ideologies are subject to active consumption, excorporation and interpolation. While the official Soviet media provided a rather stable picture of the Soviet citizen, loyal to the Soviet authorities and the Soviet ideals, this paper reveals, on the basis of multiple interviews, how ideology operates at the level of everyday life and popular consciousness.     

Female Employment in Lithuania: Testing Three Popular Explanations

This article compares three popular explanations for changes in female employment in post-socialist countries: retraditionalization, reserve army of labor, and revalued resources. Although these explanations are complementary in many ways, the retraditionalization thesis seems the most accurate explanation. In the early 1990s, gender-role attitudes were highly traditional, a tendency that might have contributed to the huge decrease in female labor force participation. Despite the changes, the comeback of the male-breadwinner family model is unlikely, since the acceptance of women's working roles is rapidly increasing.     

The International Commission for the Evaluation of the Crimes of the Nazi and Soviet Occupation Regimes in Lithuania: successes,challenges, perspectives

The article summarizes the history of the International Commission for the Evaluation of the Crimes of the Nazi and Soviet Occupation Regimes in Lithuania and outlines the work it has accomplished to date. The author reviews the problems and controversies surrounding the Commission’s research into the post-1940 period of Lithuania’s history and describes the clashing perspectives inherent in the starkly different Lithuanian, Jewish, Western and Soviet wartime narratives.     

Ethno-Political Effects of Suburbanization in the Vilnius Urban Region: An Analysis of Voting Behavior

We use electoral data to analyze the ethno-political consequences that may arise from the fact that the region surrounding the city of Vilnius is dominated by residents with a Polish identity, while those who move to the suburbs are mainly ethnic Lithuanians. In the suburban ring we found increasing voting turnout, a decreasing share of votes for the Polish party, and an increase of the absolute number of votes for this party. The changing electoral behavior might be an indicator of growing ethno-political tensions and the zones of the most intense changes identify areas of potential social tensions between ethnic groups.     

Resurgence of post-crisis neoliberalism: labor law reform and the return to “business as usual” in Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The economic crisis of 2008–2010 revealed the extreme vulnerability of Lithuania to global financial shocks. However, instead of reforming Lithuanian capitalism, the domestic political and business elites chose to write off the enormous social and economic costs incurred during the 2008–2010 crisis as an expense of continuing doing business in a way that was typical to the pre-crisis, booming years of ‘the Baltic tigers’ (2000–2007), i.e., relying on the unstable and inequitable growth model based on foreign capital inflows and remittances, suppressing and keeping wages and taxes on capital low and exporting cheap-skilled labour to the core EU countries. We illustrate this return to business as usual in Lithuania by analyzing the political process of contestation and eventual consolidation of neo-liberal consensus among domestic political actors that resulted in the passage of the new Labour Code enabling creation of ‘flexible’ labor markets. Social and political implications of the resurgent neoliberal hegemony in post-crisis Lithuania are discussed.     

Shifts in religiosity in the face of Soviet type urbanization: the case of Lithuania

This article focuses on shifts in religious life triggered by the processes of Soviet urbanization in Lithuania, a country with a strong agricultural character. Based on an analysis of diverse sources, it explores the turning point of contemporary religious history in Lithuania during the1960s, which was connected primarily with the massive displacement of people meant to transform the traditional way of life in the Lithuanian countryside. The article argues that the main result of this displacement was not so much the collapse of religious life, as was intended by the Soviet authorities, but rather the dislocation of its center from the countryside to the cities.     

A Tale of Two Councils. Explaining the Weakness of the SVP in the Upper House of the Federal Parliament

The SVP is the strongest party in the National Council, but the weakest among governmental parties in the Council of States. This article analyses possible explanations for this surprising difference by combining macro‐level information on electoral results and data from recent election studies. The results presented show that the weakness of the SVP in the Council of States is due neither to its decision to compete only in selected constituencies, nor to “mechanical” effects of the electoral system. Rather, this weakness is explained both by the strategic behaviour of voters, who avoid “wasting” their vote in the majoritarian election of the Council of States, and by incumbency effects. The SVP is further disadvantaged by its ideological position, as its candidates have more difficulty gathering the majority of votes required for election in the Council of States than do, for instance, those of the centre‐right parties.     

The immediate impact of the global financial crisis and neo-liberal austerity policies on in-work poverty dynamics in Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The article analyzes the extent and features of in-work poverty in Lithuania in the aftermath of the global economic crisis of 2007–2008. It argues that the significant expansion of the phenomenon during this time period was fostered by neoliberal policies that have been shaping the welfare system in the country for more than two decades. Furthermore, it draws attention to employment conditions and seeks to understand the experiences of those who live in in-work poverty. This article reveals that, during the period investigated, in-work poverty in Lithuania was associated with being a woman, having children, belonging to single-parent household, and being employed in a precarious working environment.     

Explaining Electoral Volatility in Latin America: Evidence at the Party Level

Many existing explanations of electoral volatility have been tested at the country level, but they are largely untested at the individual party level. This study reexamines theories of electoral volatility through the use of multilevel models on party‐level data in the lower house elections of 18 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2012. Testing hypotheses at different levels, it finds that irregular institutional alteration increases electoral volatility for all the parties in a country, but the effect is more significant for the presidential party. At the party level, the results show that while a party that is more ideologically distinctive than other parties tends to experience lower electoral volatility, party age is not a statistically significant factor for explaining party volatility.     

Explaining Policy Stability and Change in Swiss Health Care Reforms

The article investigates recent health reforms and reform attempts in Switzerland. A substantial reform, the revision of the health insurance law in 1994, is followed by a long period of refused reform proposals and incremental change. In order to explain policy change and policy stability in health policies, we apply veto‐player theory to partisan and parliamentary debates on reform proposals of the health insurance from the end of the 1980s until today. Shifts in ideological positions of parties, especially with regard to the objective of solidarity, allowed for a new win‐set in the 1990s that was at the base of the law revision. Since then, the win‐set is empty as parties did not change their preferences. New and substantial reforms will only be possible, it is concluded, if the pivot player, the Christian‐democratic party, changes its ideological positions to a significant extent.     

The Sovietization of Lithuania after WWII: modernization,transculturation, and the lettered city

ABSTRACT

This article approaches the Sovietization of the Baltics in the light of two critical notions developed by the noted Latin American critic Angel Rama: “narrative transculturation” and “the lettered city.” By revisiting key moments in the development of Soviet Lithuanian culture and intellectual class against a backdrop of forced collectivization, urbanization, and modernization, the article aims at a novel interpretation of what Sovietization meant in the Lithuanian context, the significance of de-Stalinization and cultural modernism during the Thaw in the 1960s, and the cultural preconditions for the emergence of the popular movement against Soviet rule in the late 1980s.     

Explaining community mobilization in the city of Vilnius: a search for social capital

The article explores community mobilization in the urban environment. Specifically, it examines community organizations in Lithuania’s capital city of Vilnius. Engaging with social capital theory, the article illustrates the actual community mobilizations, their stories, collective action strategies, and reasons for mobilizing. It challenges the assumption that mobilizations rarely take place in the urban environment of Lithuania due to low civil society and a nonparticipatory culture. This article shows that when mobilizations do take place, they can be short lived but still achieve significant results.     

Does the Electoral System Foster a Predominant Party System? Evidence from Turkey

This paper discusses the role of the electoral system in making the Justice and Development Party (AKP) dominant. Drawing on Sartori’s framework, we first clarify the concept of a predominant party system. Second, we examine the impact of the electoral system on the emergence of a predominant party system in Turkey. Analysing election results, we argue that the electoral system fosters dominance in three ways. First, a combination of electoral formula, national threshold and district threshold leads to over‐representation of large parties and under‐representation of small ones. Second, the fear of a wasted vote due to the high threshold prompts voters to support their second‐best option, which concentrates the votes among large parties. Finally, the electoral system increases electoral turnout rates by extending polarization.     

When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.     

Institutional Change in Swiss Cantons: A Contribution to Describing and Explaining Institutional Reforms

Most accounts of Swiss federal institutions are unable to explain institutional change. In this contribution the authors trace change in Cantonal reforms and then use multivariate explanation models to account for institutional reforms such as New Public Management reforms. The multivariate analyses used rely on an “event count model” to explain the frequency of institutional reforms and a “binary response model” to explain why Cantons adopt New Public Management reforms. This research demonstrates that policy research as well as innovation and diffusion theories can contribute to explaining institutional reform.     

Electoral Systems in Latin America: Explaining the Adoption of Proportional Representation Systems During the Twentieth Century

This article explains the twentieth-century Latin American shift from majoritarian to proportional representation (PR) electoral systems. It argues that PR was introduced when the electoral arena changed significantly and threatened the power of the dominant party. The adoption of PR was therefore an effort by the established party to retain partial power in the face of absolute defeat. Majoritarian systems remained in place when the incumbent party was strong enough to believe that it could gain a plurality of the votes despite electoral changes. An empirical analysis of 20 countries over 104 years (1900–2004) provides support for this argument.