Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections: Survey-based methods in Zimbabwe

This paper explores the feasibility of using social surveys to detect electoral manipulation in authoritarian regimes. It compares official results from the July 2013 elections in Zimbabwe with findings from a nationally representative pre-election survey. The comparison confirms that the dominant incumbent party won the elections but by far smaller margins than officially reported. This discrepancy provides analytic leverage to identify the possible presence of coercive mobilization and vote suppression and to pinpoint their geographic location. The election results are re-estimated using a set of voting simulations based on novel proxy indicators and an original list experiment designed to reveal the political preferences of fearful voters. The paper concludes by discussing why autocrats manipulate elections and whether or not they succeed in their objectives.     

American redistricting in the 1980s: The effect on the mid-term elections

An effort is made to determine the effect of decennial congressional redistricting and reapportionment on the 1982 election. Notional results of the 1982 election fought on the 1980 boundaries were compared with the actual results from 1982 to discover which election victories were decisively affected by boundary changes. New seats awarded through reapportionment were scrutinized to determine which party was intended to benefit; contests which defied boundary drawer's intentions were scored as genuine electoral reverses. Tabulation of the distribution of marginals and safe seats is attempted, with the intention of analysing whether there was any change in the frequency or distribution of marginals that can be attributed to redistricting.     

Explaining variation in concern about the outcome of presidential elections, 1960–1980

Since 1960 there has been a steady erosion in concern about the electoral outcome of presidential elections among the white electorate. An analysis of the six SRC-CPS presidential election surveys conducted between 1960 and 1980 shows that a substantial portion of the erosion of electoral concern can be accounted for by the weakening of partisan loyalties and the decline in feelings that the political system is responsive. More generally, the analysis suggests that extent of concern about the electoral outcome is primarily a long-term secular component and not a short-term, election-specific factor as is commonly assumed in the literature.     

Administrative aspects of the Uganda election—December 1980: A comparison with Zimbabwe

Since international observers were used to give legitimacy both to the Uganda and Zimbabwe elections in 1980 there is an obvious point of comparison between them. Despite this initial similarity comparing the administration of the elections in the two emphasizes the differences and draws attention to the administrative problems in Uganda resulting from the use of a law and procedures which derived from different circumstances in the country and which assumed an experience in operating elections which was largely lacking. This article explains problems encountered and points to lessons to be learnt.