Personal Criminal Victimization in the United States: Fixed and Random Effects of Individual and Household Characteristics

The present research is concerned with multilevel modeling of personalvictimization rates. Data from the 1994 National Crime Victimization Surveyare employed. Following the routine activities and lifestyle victimizationtheory, individuals' profile and lifestyle as well as characteristics oftheir household comprise the set of explanatory variables. The results ofestimated multilevel negative binomial models, which explicitly disentanglethe unexplained heterogeneity between individuals and between households,are discussed. The estimated random effects of household characteristicsshow that the unexplained heterogeneity for the average number of personalcrimes differs across household types. Further, the individual covariateswith between households random effects become less influential the more thebase personal crime rates are high.     

Population Heterogeneity and State Dependence: State of the Evidence and Directions for Future Research

Criminological research has consistently uncovered a positive correlationbetween past and current criminal behavior. Continuity in offending overtime can be attributed to at least two processes—populationheterogeneity and state dependence. A population heterogeneity processattributes stability in offending over time to differences in ananti-social characteristic (self-control, impulsivity, psychopathicpersonality) across persons that is established early in life andtime-stable thereafter. An implication of a population heterogeneityexplanation for continuity in offending over time is that the anti-socialcharacteristic is likely to have reverberations throughout life, takingmany manifestations later in life (unemployment, drug addiction, maritalinstability). Any observed correlation between these later life events andcriminality, therefore, is spurious rather than causal, due to the factthat they are all the effects of a common cause. A state dependenceexplanation, in contrast, attributes observed stability in criminaloffending to a process of contagion. That is, criminal behavior has agenuine causal effect on subsequent criminality by eroding constraintsand strengthening incentives to crime. The implication of a statedependence process is that criminal conduct may be influenced by laterlife events. In this paper, we draw a connection between populationheterogeneity and state dependence processes and extant criminologicaltheory. We also review the literature that has investigated theplausibility of these two processes. Finally, concluding that weknow very little about them we make recommendations for future researchon population heterogeneity and state dependence.     

Trace evidence dynamics of cocaine on banknotes: A comparison study of paper and polymer banknotes

It is well established that a large proportion of paper banknotes in circulation contain traces of cocaine. Being able to discriminate between the innocent transfer of illicit drug particles acquired through everyday interactions with surfaces such as banknotes, as opposed to transfer resulting from criminal activities can provide valuable intelligence that can inform an investigation. With many countries adopting polymer banknotes as legal tender, it is important to consider the transfer of cocaine from these surfaces as well as the retention of these particulates on polymer banknotes for evaluative interpretation in crime reconstruction. This comparison study assessed three contact variables (force, time, and rotation) on the transfer of cocaine particulates from paper and polymer banknotes onto a human skin proxy. The persistence of cocaine particulates was assessed through a realistic scenario which mimicked a cash transaction. Quantifiable amounts of cocaine were transferred onto the human skin proxy across all of the contacts assessed, with a greater transfer observed with contacts involving polymer banknotes and those contacts which involved rotation. Following extensive handling, cocaine persisted on both banknote types, with paper banknotes retaining larger amounts of cocaine than polymer banknotes. These findings show that cocaine can persist on both paper and polymer banknotes for extended periods of time following handling and is therefore available for transfer. This transfer then readily occurs, even when contact is brief and involves relatively small forces. A key distinction between the banknote types was that cocaine particulates are more likely to transfer from polymer banknotes due to the lower retention rate of particulates on this surface. Such insights can aid in evaluating the relevance of illicit drug particles identified on items or persons of interest in crime reconstruction approaches.     

Organisational change and innovation system dynamics: the reform of the UK government defence research establishments

Since the end of the Cold War, ministries of defence in Europe and the United States have sought new models for the management of government defence research laboratories. The United Kingdom’s reform and subsequent privatisation of its government defence research establishments (GDREs) represents one of the most radical policy responses. This paper considers the UK case through the lens of innovation systems theory and uses defence labs reform to examine the impact of organisational change on the dynamics of an innovation system. The potential policy implications for the management of government defence research laboratories are also considered.

Between market forces and knowledge based motives: the governance of defence innovation in the UK

The purpose of this contribution is to examine the evolutionary transformations that have characterised the UK defence innovation system since the mid 1980s. It focuses on the central and challenging issue faced by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in implementing effective governance mechanisms emerging from the continuous trade-off between short-term market driven measures motivated by efficiency arguments, and more long term and relational considerations in terms of knowledge economics. Furthermore, in terms of technology transfer, this evolution has been accompanied by a gradual shift from an initial logic of spin-off to society expected from government driven military projects, to a logic of spin-in where the main concern of the military sector is to broaden its industrial and R&D base.

Situational factors and police use of force across micro-time intervals: A video systematic social observation and panel regression analysis

The current study analyzes police use of force as a series of time-bound transactions between officers, civilians, and bystanders. The research begins with a systematic social observation of use-of-force events recorded on police body-worn cameras in Newark, New Jersey. Researchers measure the occurrence and time stamps for numerous participant physical and verbal behaviors. Data are converted into a longitudinal panel format measuring all observed behaviors in 5-second intervals. Panel logistic regression models estimate the effect of each behavior on use of force in immediate and subsequent temporal periods. Findings indicate certain variables influence use of force at a distinct point in time, whereas others exert influence on use of force across multiple time periods. The most influential variables relate to authority maintenance theoretical constructs. This finding supports prior perspectives arguing that police use of force largely results from officer attempts to maintain constant authority over civilians during face-to-face encounters. Nonetheless, a range of additional variables reflecting procedural justice, civilian resistance, and bystander presence significantly affect when police use force during civilian encounters. Results provide nuance to theoretical frameworks considering use of force as resulting from the interplay between officer and civilian actions and reactions.     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

Effects of pretrial juror bias,strength of evidence and deliberation process on juror decisions: new validity evidence of the Juror Bias Scale scores

This study examines the validity of the Juror Bias Scale scores in relation to the mock juror decisions reached in two real life homicide cases before and after the deliberation process. The judicial cases used varied in terms of the ambiguity of the evidence presented at both trials. The WLS methodology for statistical modelling of categorical data was used to analyse data. The findings indicated that the Juror Bias Scale scores successfully predict the verdicts and other related questions before and after deliberations in the case with ambiguous evidence. Furthermore, deliberations caused a generalisation effect on the pretrial juror bias in such a case, and enhanced the differences between defense-biased and prosecution-biased jurors in the verdicts delivered after deliberations. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the use of pretrial juror bias questionnaires in jury selection.     

Technological innovation in the recovery and analysis of 3D forensic footwear evidence: Structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry

The recovery of three-dimensional footwear impressions at crime scenes can be a challenge but can also yield important investigative data. Traditional methods involve casting 3D impressions but these methods have limitations: the trace is usually destroyed during capture; the process can be time consuming, with a risk of failure; and the resultant cast is bulky and therefore difficult to share and store. The use of Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry has been used widely to capture fossil footprints in the geological record and while there is a small body of work advocating its use in forensic practice the full potential of this technique has yet to be realised in an operational context. The availability of affordable software is one limiting factor and here we report the availability of a bespoke freeware for SfM recovery and subsequent analysis of for footwear evidence (DigTrace). Our aim here is not to provide a rigorous comparison of SfM methods to other recovery methods, but more to illustrate the potential while also documenting the typical workflows and potential errors associated with an SfM based approach. By doing so we hope to encourage further research, experimentation and ultimately adoption by practitioners.     

Criminal justice decision making as a stratification process: The role of race and stratification resources in pretrial release

Our purpose is to bridge the criminal justice and stratification research literatures and to pursue the argument that homologous structural principles stratify allocation processes across central institutions of American society. The principle observed here in the making of bail decisions, as in earlier studies of the allocation of earnings, is that stratification resources operate to the greater advantage of whites than blacks. The operation of this principle is established through the estimation of covariance structure models of pretrial release decisions affecting 5660 defendants in 10 federal courts. Education and income are treated in this study as observed components of a composite construct, stratification resources, which works to the greater advantage of whites. Prior record is also found to operate to the greater advantage of whites. Two further variables, dangerousness and community ties, increase bail severity among blacks and whites. While the effect of community ties has been legally legitimized since the Bail Reform Act of 1966, the effect of dangerousness was not so legitimized until the Bail Reform Act of 1984. However, because our data precede the latter act, they confirm that this act simply reinstitutionalized earlier practice. Meanwhile, our race-specific findings may explain why although this and earlier studies find negligible main effects of race on criminal justice outcomes, black Americans nonetheless perceive more criminal injustice than do whites. In the criminal justice system, as in other spheres of American society, whites receive a better return on their resources, but our findings that the statutory severity of the offense and dangerousness work to the relative disadvantage of white defendants challenges conflict and labeling theory's one-dimensional characterization of black defendant disadvantage.