特朗普政府初期美国军方管控气候风险及其行为逻辑

奥巴马政府时期,美国国家安全界对气候变化形成比较统一的认识,即气候变化对美国国家安全构成潜在威胁。与这种认知形成、加深相伴随的是,美国的国家安全体系逐渐开始将气候变化因素纳入其战略规划与日常实践。特朗普执政后,美国安全政策中的气候因素不仅没有淡化或终结,相反,在某些方面或在某种程度上还有强化的迹象。但是,这种强化趋势却出现了新的变化,并通过以下两种方式突显出来：第一,军方对气候变化的侧重点从长期威胁转向近期威胁、从间接威胁转向直接威胁、从全球性灾难转向特定灾害。第二,军方应对气候变化的手段从减排和适应并重转向侧重适应。支撑上述变化的不仅是基于现实的安全利益考量,也是美国决策者内部的矛盾及调和使然。未来,预计美国军方的气候政策进程仍将持续,但是,美国军方的气候政策是否会产生“外溢效应”,进而向上传递到联邦政府决策,仍旧取决于政府与国会之间的博弈。     

Climate Change and the US Security Sector: the Securitization of Climate Change

This preliminary study traces how climate change came to be viewed as a security issue in the United States through a review of policy documents and reports prepared for and by the US security sector. The paper draws upon the ideas of constructivist schools of security studies to provide an analytical framework for understanding the meaning of the securitization process as it has occurred in the United States. It then refl ects upon the adequacy of those frameworks to interpret the securitization of climate change. In the US, new knowledge of the phenomenon of climate change was fi rst constructed in the research sector, in the fi elds of meteorology and atmospheric science. Environmental and Earth sciences then became a locus of research, and climate change fi rst entered security discourse as a topic of environmental protection. As the implications of climate change and its potential impact on water resources, food production, diseases, infrastructure, and human migration came to the attention of the security sector, this knowledge stimulated an internal discourse, where each new document functioned both as a new securitization statement and as a policy response to prior documents in a chain of discourse. Actors in this securitization process included not only “speakers” making a securitization claim (knowledge claim) and “audiences” that accept or reject a claim. Importantly, it also included actors who were instrumental in translating knowledge between research and security sectors. This brief consideration suggests that social science theories that center on practice are more robust than those that center on discourse for interpreting the securitization of climate change. Improved analytic frameworks need to better account for actors whose role is to transfer and translate knowledge from one sector to another.     

气候变化与美国国家安全部门:气候变化问题的安全化

通过分析安全研究领域中人们普遍采用的几种建构主义安全化研究理论,来解读美国气候变化问题安全化的过程,可以发现:在诠释气候变化问题的安全化过程这个问题上,以实践为核心的社会科学理论或分析性框架比注重话语分析的社会科学理论或分析性框架更加有效。强调将实践上的变化作为成功构建安全的标准,这就将目标指向了如何将科学认识加以社会构建这一理论工作。把安全化当做一种更为普遍的认识构建过程的一个具体案例,这将可能将我们导向一种理论的改良,这种改良的理论所要描述的是一个更为广大的由行为主体和网络构成的整体构架,一个随时间推移产生的新兴现象的知识演变过程,一个文件与言论发挥多重作用的复杂话语体系。此外,要想更好地理解气候变化问题在国家层面上的安全化进程,一个很有价值的做法就是进行比较案例研究,特别是同以中国为代表的国家进行对比,因为中国在气候政策决策上推行的是一种经济发展框架。中美在气候政策方面的关系缓和推动了2015年巴黎气候大会的召开,这一事例将为比较案例研究提供一个有趣的框架。     

Climate Change and the Role of China

Action to combat climate change is becoming ever more essential,especially as nations look toward their futures in an increasingly competitive world.Countries vie for obtaining the largest reduction in carbon emissions while the need for cooperation is also taking on ever-greater urgency.China has so far actively,solidly and diligently demonstrated its responsible image towards climate change,a point which should be understood and recognized by the developed world.     

气候变化"怀疑论"分析及启示

气候变化"怀疑论"由来已久,在哥本哈根气候变化大会前后引发空前关注."怀疑论"者成员复杂,也并无统一理论观点,他们或质疑全球变暖的真实性和严重性,或质疑全球变暖与人类活动的相关性及当前应对措施的合理性."怀疑论"升温将使本已步履维艰的全球气候谈判难度进一步增大,但难以逆转国际社会推动节能减排、发展低碳经济的大趋势.从另一个角度看,"怀疑论"各种观点的披露也有助于使未来气候变化研究更加谨慎、全面,相关应对措施更加务实和理性.     

Climate Change and Security at the Third Pole

The consequences of global climate change present a serious strategic challenge in one of the most remote parts of the world.The Tibetan Plateau is the largest high-altitude landmass on earth,with more than 45,000 glaciers that feed the major river systems in Asia,which,in turn,support 40 per cent of the world’s population.Temperatures in the region are rising twice as fast as the global average,posing serious risks to hydrological systems,agriculture,and critical infrastructure.Looking at regional cooperation through the lens of ecological security raises important questions about the extent to which the threat of large-scale climate-related disaster could trigger new forms of cooperative action.The sobering reality is that current responses fall far short of ensuring a mutually secure future.     

China-ASEAN Cooperation on Climate Change

China-ASEAN cooperation on climate change is an important component of the comprehensive strategic cooperation between the two. The cooperation has already made significant progress but the constraining factors still exist. It is in the interests of both sides to further enhance the cooperation in the climate and environment field.     

Prospects of Climate Change Negotiation

This article examines the key points of controversy and the prospects for the post-Copenhagen global climate change negotiations. While the Europeans and the U.S. try to abandon the principles of the Kyoto Protocol after 2012, the developing countries will strive to make the developed countries continue to accept differentiated responsibilities or obligations, The prospects of reaching a new legally binding international agreement on emissions reduction in the Cancun or South Africa summits may be diminishing.     

哥本哈根联合国气候变化大会

2009年12月7—19日,联合国气候变化大会在丹麦首都哥本哈根召开,其目的是为了商讨《京都议定书》一期承诺到期后的后续方案,并就未来应对气候变化的全球行动签署新协议,因此会议也被誉为“拯救人类的最后一次机会”。但由于各方漫长而激烈的利益博弈,会议以一份并不具有法律约束力的《哥本哈根协议》告终。     

国际气候话语权之争初探

随着气候变化演变为全球最大焦点问题之一,各国尤其是各大国对国际气候话语权争夺趋于激烈。这种争夺本质上是以经济利益和发展权益为主轴的国家利益之争。各国享有国际话语权的大小既是由其实力,也是由其相关政策决定的。     

World Conservation Congress 2008: Climate Change,Islands, and In-situ Conservation

The author participated in the IUCN World Conservation Congress (5–14 October 2008), both the Forum events and pre-selected Learning Sessions, including forest carbon inventory, and multilateral negotiations. The sessions highlighted the importance of multidisciplinary approaches and of treating indigenous knowledge as seriously as rigorous hard science. The gravity of climate change was fully recognised. Success stories gave important encouragement and knowledge-capital for conservation, while case studies showed that protected areas should be made as diverse and harmonious as the human landscape that they are affecting.     

英国应对气候变化的政策及其借鉴意义

英国是世界上较早开始对低碳经济进行探索的国家之一,在实践中形成了比较系统和完善的气候变化应对政策,该政策具有全面性、系统性和整体性特点,从宏观立法到企业行动,各种措施相互呼应.但是,其对外气候政策偏离了"共同但有区别责任"的原则,对发展中国家不利.如能从中汲取经验教训,中国一定能制定出符合本国国情的气候政策,为经济社会和环境协调发展做出更大贡献.     

Pakistan,India, China,and the United States: Energy,Climate Change,and National Security

This article focuses on the interplay of energy, climate change, and national security issues in Southwest Asia, using the newer definition of “national security” to include energy security, economic development, and climate change, as well as traditional security focusing on the military aspects.     

Gender in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction,Manila, October 2008

The Congress on Gender in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction (held in Manila 19–22 October 2008) was the Third Global Congress of Women in Politics and Governance. Its purpose was to provide a forum for decision makers to formulate gender-responsive programmes related to climate change and disaster-risk reduction. More than 200 people participated, including parliamentarians, representatives of environmental and women's organisations, and donor agencies. Proceedings focused on the fact that climate change magnifies existing inequalities, and in particular gender inequality. The Congress issued the Manila Declaration for Global Action on Gender, Climate Change, and Disaster Risk Reduction.     

Problems in Dealing with the Global Climate Change

The question of climate change has been gaining heat in recent years. At the G8 summit in L＇Aquila, Italy in July, climate change was one of the focuses, and consensus was reached on the long-term target of emission cutting. The main emitting countries of the world will gather in Copenhagen of Denmark at the end of this year for global climate change negotiations. It is emerging as a new area for world powers to contend with each other.     

The Evolution and Prospects of the International Climate Change Regime

The United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Bali,Indonesia in December 2007, formally launching the post-Kyoto negotiations. After hard discussions, the parties finally agreed on the Bali Roadmap, promising to have further negotiations and maintain and improve the international climate change regime centered on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC） and the Kyoto Protocol. However, the scientificity, rationality and effectiveness of the regime are constantly questioned. Very few countries can fulfill standard emissions. Neither Japan or Canada nor most European Union countries are able to fulfill the goals of emissions reduction on schedule. The question of how much responsibility the rapidly growing developing countries should undertake is increasingly standing out. Yet although the regime is greatly challenged, it is still the only relatively complete framework in terms of structure and functions that international climate cooperation can rely on. This regime will continue to play a fundamental and irreplaceable role in the more and more complicated international climate negotiations.