北非中东大动荡的地缘政治影响

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

Evolution of the Middle East Situation and Policy Adjustment by the Bush Administration

Since U.S. president Bush adopted the new Iraq plan on January 10,2007 for sending more troops to Iraq,the situation in Iraq has remained in a state of chaos. The Iraq issue continues to stand as a focal point of the Middle East crisis,     

The Role of FOCAC in the Development of Africa

China-Africa cooperation in the modern time started after the inauguration of China-Africa relations in 1956. At that time, the focus of cooperation was in the political area, with China supporting the movement of national independence of Africa and Africa supporting China＇s cause of unification. From 1978 to 1999, with great changes in both China and Africa, China-Africa cooperation entered the second phase. China had begun to implement the policy of reform and opening up, and African countries had moved from seeking national independence to developing national economy.     

全球政治视野下的中东变局

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

Understanding the Islamic State’s competitive advantages: Remaking state and nationhood in the Middle East and North Africa

While many researchers have examined the evolution and unique characteristics of the Islamic State (IS), taking an IS-centric approach has yet to illuminate the factors allowing for its establishment in the first place. To provide a clearer explanation for IS’s successes and improve analysts’ ability to predict future occurrences of similar phenomena, we analyze IS’s competitive advantages through the lens of two defining structural conditions in the Middle East North Africa (MENA): failure of state institutions and nationhood. It is commonly understood that the MENA faces challenges associated with state fragility, but our examination of state and national resiliency shows that Syria and Iraq yield the most deleterious results in the breakdown of the nation, suggesting that the combined failure of state and nation, as well as IS’s ability to fill these related vacuities, is a significant reason IS thrives there today. Against this backdrop, we provide a model of IS’s state- and nation-making project, and illustrate IS’s clear competitive advantages over all other state and non-state actors in both countries, except for Kurdish groupings. We conclude with recommendations on how policy-makers may begin halting and reversing the failure of both state and nation in Iraq and Syria.     

“New Particles” of the Changing World Situation

The world situation, as always complicated and volatile, has seen some “new particles” after the war on Iraq. This is a special war that has affected the whole world. The course and consequences of the war have exemplified the fever pitch of the U.S. unilateralism and the heavy cost thus paid by the U.S. They have also resulted in the changes of relations between major powers,     

An Overall Review of International Situation in the First Quarter of 2004

I.TheU.S.Presidentialelectiongotlockedinaseesawbattle,therelationsbetweentheU.S.andsomebigpowerssawnewtrends.KerryhackedhiswaythroughdifficultiesintheprimaryandwontheDemocraticnomination.KerryandBushattackedeachotherontheissuesofcounter-terrorismandeconomyandtheirsupportratingwasequallymatched.Bushexpressedhisanti-terrorismdeterminationseveraltimes.TheU.S.desperatelysuppressedtheal-QaidaandtheremainingforcesofTalibawithPakistanandAfghanistanasitsalliesandpropagatedits″Demo-craticPlanon…     

北非中东政治变局原因初探

2010年底起于突尼斯、2011年以来迅速扩散的北非、中东动荡引起了世界广泛关注,其发生的根源、发展趋势及其影响、对中国的启示及中国的应对也是目前我国政界、学界集中探讨的热点问题。当前中东变局的深层根源是什么?骨牌效应会扩散到哪里?会不会改变中东政治力量对比甚至重塑中东战略格局?会不会影响全球战略态势?中东变局对中国的经济影响与战略影响如何?中国从中东变局的发生根源及其影响中可得到些什么启示?围绕这些问题,中国现代国际关系研究院《现代国际关系》杂志社于2011年3月10日举办了题为当前北非、中东变局及其影响的学术研讨会,来自北京大学、清华大学、中国人民大学、中共中央党校、国防大学、北京航空航天大学、北京外国语大学、南开大学、中国社会科学院及中国现代国际关系研究院的20多位专家学者与会。他们从不同角度就上述问题展开了热烈而深入的探讨。现将部分与会专家学者的主要观点辑录如下,以飨读者。     

New Trends of the World Economy and Financial Situation

The world economic situation is on the whole facing more risks, reflected in ＂stagflation plus financial crisis＂. That is to say global economic growth has slowed down, but inflation pressure remains high. The impact of the sub-prime mortgage crisis on European and US economy is continuing to deepen and emerging economies are facing financial turmoil once again.     

An Overview of the International Situation in the 1~(st) Quarter of 2006

1. Adjustments were made in the U.S.diplomatic strategy and deployment. The U.S.adjusted its diplomacy and published President’sState of Union Message as well as NationalSecurity Strategy Report. According to Rice’sstrategy for “transformation diplomacy”the U.S.would pay more attention to the emerging andtransitional countries, entrust the U.S. diplomacythe newtask and reorganize and strengthen the U.S.foreign aid institutions. Bush said in his State ofUnion Message that China and…     

An Overall Review of the International Situation in the Second Quarter of 2004

I.AturbulentsituationinIraqhadkeptdeteri-oratingalongwithrepercussionsof″prisonerabuse″story.WhilepoliticalreconstructionmadesomeprogressdissociationappearedintheU.S.-ledallianceregardingstationingtroopsinIraq.CombatsbetweenIraqiclericmilitantsandforeigncoalitionforceswereexpandingandfiercefightingsoccurredinseveralmajorcities.MorethanonehundredAmericasoldiersdiedinAprilsettingasingle-monthrecordsinceIraqWarbrokeout.Ab-ductionofforeignhostagesroseoneafteranotheraccompaniedbyfrequentterro…     

Trends of Thought of World Politics in 2006

The year of 2006 had witnessed a dynamic picture in the trends of thought on the world political arena. Among them,some were quite eye-catching: the idea of building a harmonious world proposed by China had attracted broad attention; the U.S.     

The East Asia Summit and Its Relations with the United States

In a changing world today,Asia has caught wide attention of the world with its fast rate of change and the enhancement of its economic and hence political status. On December 14,2005 the first East Asia Summit (EAS) was held in Kuala Lumpur     

Brief Analysis on the North East Asia Policy of Japan＇s Democratic Party

<正>The core idea of strengthening Asia Oriented Diplomacy of the coalition government led by Japanese Democratic Party (DPJ) is to focus on North East Asia and vigorously build up trust     

An Overall Review of the International Situation in the 2~(nd) Quarter of 2006

1. The tendency that both mutual cooperation and restriction among major powers was getting obvious. The contradictions between the U.S. and Russia were increasing. The two countries had more competition in the CIS region. As an effort to push its " Grea…     

The Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and the Development of Democracy in Africa

The Friedrich Ebert Stiftung （FES） started to work in over 20 countries in Africa since their independence. To promote democracy has always been the focus of our work in Africa. We believe that democracy is the important and necessary precondition for the sustainable development of mankind. And we are fully aware that there is still no blue print for democracy in Africa.     

A General Review of the Situation in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2008

In 2008, Latin America and the Caribbean area maintained the momentum of economic growth. However, the pace of growth slowed down due to various factors. The stagnant impact of global financial crisis lashed on its economy was beginning to show its effect. The overall political situation in Latin America remained stable. But some countries experienced political turmoil, which had some impact on their political landscape countries, the ruling parties faced . In some with new challenges. In foreign relations, pragmatism and pluralism continued to be the main features. The role of regional diplomacy in promoting regional stability was conspicuous. Latin American countries have demonstrated strong will for regional integration. The relations between Latin America and other major regions in the world were enhanced at different levels. China-Latin America relations of partnership also witnessed further boost in various fields.     

Learn from History to Preserve Peace and Promote Development——In memory of the 60^th anniversary of the victory of the World War of Anti-Fascism

The year of 2005is the 60thanniversary of thevictory ofthe W orld W ar of A nti-Fascism . It is alofty m ission of the m ankind to learn from historyin order to face the future, to preserve peace andto prom ote developm ent. This article covers twom ain points: one is the reflection on the W orldW ar of A nti-fascism and the other is the currentworld situation after 60years ofthe war.The W orld A nti-Fascism W ar is also called theW orld W ar Two. It w as a global-wide inhum anand aggres…     

Chinese Academic Researches on Democratization of International Relations： Status and Problems

After the Cold War, hegemony and power politics remained the major obstacles in the process of establishing a fair, just, inclusive and orderly global political volatile international and economic order. Due political and economic to the complicated and situation, promoting democratization of intemational relations as well as establishing a fair and reasonable global political and economic order have become the appeal of people in more and more countries. The Chinese government duly put forward its proposition of democratization of international relations to safeguard the basic interests of people in China and other countries in the world. It became one vital theoretical innovation in its diplomatic strategy. Under the guidance of this idea, the Chinese government is actively pushing forward democratization Of international relations with many developing countries.     

An Overall Review of the International Situation In the 4~(th) Quarter of 2005

1. The U.S., deeply trapped in Iraq, was pursuing a global strategy of "Iraq first, the Greater Middle East later,tightening relations with Europe and stabilizing the Asia -Pacific region".As the U.S. military death toll in Iraq passed 2000, there was gro…