Politically motivated violence in the southwest pacific

Over the past 20 years the Southwest Pacific has been changing and there is now considerable scope for unrest within the states and territories of the region. Some of these tensions have already been manifested in politically motivated violence, for example in Irian Jaya, Papua New Guinea, New Caledonia and Fiji. Those incidents which have occurred to date have stemmed from local issues and been directed against local targets, but an increase in tensions could bring the prospect of international terrorist activity. There is also the possibility of interference from outside elements seeking to capitalize on such unrest as part of a wider campaign.     

19世纪末爪哇鸦片税收专卖承包制研究

鸦片税收专卖承包制一度被认为是华侨剥削印尼人民的罪证,19世纪末爪哇社会出现反鸦片风潮,殖民政府借机以鸦片公营专卖局取代了鸦片税收专卖承包制。本文作者指出,以公营代替私营,殖民者的最终目的在于从华侨手中夺过经济大权以获取更高的利润,华侨始终不过是荷兰殖民统治的工具。     

俄罗斯东部地区：日本石油进口战略的新视点

日本既是世界经济大国,也是世界能源消费大国和能源进口大国之一,长期以来日本的石油供给一直主要依赖中东地区。美国占领伊拉克后,中东地区将更加动荡,这将给日本石油稳定的供给带来极大的威胁,进一步开展对俄能源合作已是大势所趋。     

“Mtwara will be the New Dubai”: dashed expectations,grievances, and civil unrest in Tanzania

When does inequality lead to conflict? Despite recent studies highlighting the effects of group exclusion, this question has not been fully answered. We argue that objective group inequality is not sufficient to fuel unrest. Structural inequalities need to be perceived as unfair, and become grievances, in order to spark mobilization. While most conflict scholars recognize this on a theoretical level, statistical tests of the effect of inequality on conflict almost exclusively rely on objective data. This limits their ability to distinguish when inequality is politically relevant and when it is not. Southern Tanzania is a case in point. Despite decades of marginalization, the population remained peaceful until natural gas was discovered, and the government was perceived to break their promises of local development. Demonstrating that objective regional inequalities have remained relatively constant, while group grievances seems to have increased, we argue that direct measures of grievances are needed to pinpoint when inequality becomes politically salient. Using novel survey data, we find that people who think that the region is treated unfairly have the highest likelihood of supporting and participating in civil unrest.     

Global Credit Markets,Political Violence,and Politically Sustainable Risk Premia

How do international financial conditions affect civil unrest? Existing studies examine the domestic economic roots of political violence but say little about the role of external financial conditions. We explore the interactions between international lending, government policy, and domestic unrest. In particular, we note that because of sovereign risk and defensive lending dynamics, credit ratings and interest rate premia are endogenous to expectations about civil violence. We test these claims using instrumental variables techniques and daily data on sovereign bond yield spreads, credit ratings, and episodes of civil violence in 59 developing countries from 1990 through 2004. After correcting for endogeneity, we find that exogenous increases in the price of foreign capital are robustly associated with increased odds of civil conflict. Primary commodity dependence, low economic growth, and poverty can also increase the odds of civil conflict by reducing access to foreign capital.     

关于撒哈拉以南非洲政局走势的研判

北非动荡不仅对中东阿拉伯世界造成直接的冲击,而且对撒哈拉以南非洲政局也构成潜在的影响。在此背景下,由于确实存在诸多有可能引发动荡的社会政治经济因素,撒哈拉以南非洲局部,即某些国家的政局动荡或许难免,但总体稳定的态势不会改变;即便一些撒哈拉以南非洲国家发生动乱,在性质上亦有别于北非国家,更不会像北非地区那样产生扩散效应,覆盖整个次区域,原因在于撒哈拉以南非洲国家在民族结构、宗教信仰、文化传统,特别是政治改革和政治治理等方面均与包括北非在内的中东阿拉伯国家存在较大差异。总体稳定、局部动荡仍不失为非洲政局之常态。     

中东剧变及其战略影响

当前中东正经历着一场历史性的重大变革。发端于突尼斯的政局动荡迅速席卷整个中东，并使该地区陷入全局性动荡的不安之中。改革成为大势所趋，但未来不确定性大增。中东剧变不仅剧烈改写地区传统地缘政治关系，也对大国的中东政策构成重要挑战。     

Explaining Myanmar's regime transition: the periphery is central

In 2010, Myanmar (Burma) held its first elections after 22?years of direct military rule. Few compelling explanations for this regime transition have emerged. This article critiques popular accounts and potential explanations generated by theories of authoritarian “regime breakdown” and “regime maintenance”. It returns instead to the classical literature on military intervention and withdrawal. Military regimes, when not terminated by internal factionalism or external unrest, typically liberalize once they feel they have sufficiently addressed the crises that prompted their seizure of power. This was the case in Myanmar. The military intervened for fear that political unrest and ethnic-minority separatist insurgencies would destroy Myanmar's always-fragile territorial integrity and sovereignty. Far from suddenly liberalizing in 2010, the regime sought to create a “disciplined democracy” to safeguard its preferred social and political order twice before, but was thwarted by societal opposition. Its success in 2010 stemmed from a strategy of coercive state-building and economic incorporation via “ceasefire capitalism”, which weakened and co-opted much of the opposition. Having altered the balance of forces in its favour, the regime felt sufficiently confident to impose its preferred settlement. However, the transition neither reflected total “victory” for the military nor secured a genuine or lasting peace.     

Regional integration and domestic unrest: A comparative study in Europe and central America

The author investigates the extent to which political integration leads to domestic unrest, attempting to differentiate the impact of integration itself from that of political development in general. A comparative study of the Central American Common Market and the European Common Market, each with a set of control countries matched for level of development, is employed. Data are analyzed at several time intervals. The level of instability associated with integration is shown to vary according to region, and integration and instability are shown not to be universally associated.     

Economics of peace making: the case of The International Fund for Ireland

The civil unrest in Northern Ireland, which began in 1969/1970, formally came to an end on May the 8th 2007, when devolved government began in earnest in Northern Ireland, with Unionist (Protestant) and Republican and Nationalist (Catholic) political parties joining together in government. One of the reasons for this historical peace is related to the work of The International Fund for Ireland. This article will discuss the mechanisms this Fund used to transform structures of conflict, and to create economic foundations for peace in Northern Ireland. The author was Director (1989–1993) and Chairman (1993–2005) of the International Fund for Ireland.     

2002年东北亚地区政治局势述评

在 2 0 0 2年打击国际恐怖主义形势下 ,东北亚地区的政治局势表现出了总体缓和、间有动荡和起伏不定的特征。大国关系、半岛局势处在不断调整和变化之中。我国同以往一样 ,既有挑战 ,也有机遇 ,能否抓住机遇 ,取决于我们能否处理好大国之间的关系。     

The paradox of integration? European democracy and the debt crisis

Europe is facing both a political crisis of democracy and legitimacy and an economic crisis of debt and competitiveness. These crises seem to point in two distinct directions, growing social unrest over the Europeanized mechanisms of economic adjustment, and increasing efforts at strengthening those same institutions that regulate the adjustment process. Recent analyses have suggested that this failure of democracy will prove decisive; legitimacy for crisis management efforts requires a redemocratization of the European polity. Instead, drawing on an analysis of ordo- and neo-liberal traditions, the article explains how European integration was itself a response to the perceived threat of democratic demands at the domestic level. The body of the article then traces the crisis through three phases, arguing that efforts by state managers reflect a deliberate attempt to depoliticize policy-making processes. Yet the selective intervention—to restore accumulation whilst withdrawing social spending—has only fuelled the politicization of segments of European society. This threatens to test the limits of depoliticization as a governing strategy.     

Northern Ireland's Flags Crisis and the Enduring Legacy of the Settler-Native Divide

The upsurge of unrest in Northern Ireland in December 2012 was unexpected as it ran counter to the prevailing assumption that the settlement of the conflict embodied in the Good Friday Agreement of April 1998 had finally taken root. Prior to the Belfast City Council's decision to limit the flying of the Union flag to designated days, Northern Ireland's political dispensation seemed completely secure. Indeed, arrangements for Northern Ireland's governance were being widely touted as a model for the resolution of ethnonational conflicts. The crisis has given resonance to an older interpretation of the problem in terms of settlers and natives.     

当前中亚地区宗教极端势力活动的主要特点、趋势及影响

2010年以来,中亚地区宗教极端势力趋于活跃：趁中亚部分国家政局动荡和社会危机加紧向政坛渗透;利用中亚地区新一轮伊斯兰化思潮加大极端思想宣传;完善组织体系和实施新的暴力恐怖活动。中亚地区宗教极端势力的活跃将对地区国家政治、经济建设、地区间国家关系产生重要影响。     

政治转型中的制度因素：泰国选举制度改革研究

本文认为，泰国政局持续动荡的重要原因，在于各派政治利益集团在重新划定权力边界的政治转型过程中始终未能在政治制度层面达成显规则与潜规则的相互契合。尽管各方对改变“小党林立”格局存在共识，但“反他信”阵营的既得利益集团偏好“两党对峙”格局，而“挺他信”阵营的新兴利益集团倾向“一党优势”格局。由于两派都存在对“实际控制力一潜规则权力边界”的错位误判，使得各方难以通过选举制度的显规则调整来重新划定彼此间的权力边界，从而导致持续的政治冲突与角力。     

叙利亚动荡的特殊性及其未来走势

2011年以来，中东地区爆发前所未有的大规模动荡和变革。随着时间推移，突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、也门等国相继从“革命”阶段进入“后革命”的重建、调整、震荡期。但叙利亚危机“高烧不退”，乱象四起。自阿拉伯国家联盟从叙利亚撤出观察团后，叙局势继续恶化，逐渐演变为阿拉伯大变局中的特殊个案。本文试图对叙危机特殊性及其危而不倒的原因进行初步剖析，为预测叙未来政局走势打下基础。     

Killing Nationalism with Liberalism? Austria–Hungary and the Serbian Constitution of 1869

Based on material from the Hungarian archives hitherto unpublished in English, this article examines the contribution Austro–Hungarian diplomacy made to the approval, by the Ottoman government, of a new constitution for its vassal-state Serbia in 1869. The episode reflects the emergence of a Hungarian influence on the Habsburg Monarchy's policy towards Russia, the Ottoman Balkans, and especially Serbia in the years immediately following the Ausgleich of 1867. Hungarian Minister-President Count Gyula Andrássy, through the new Austro–Hungarian consul in Belgrade, Benjámin Kállay, lobbied Vienna to support the new constitution. He did so in the hope that a more liberal political system in Serbia would impede the Serbian government's tendency to foment nationalist unrest within the Habsburg Monarchy and distract Belgrade from its policy of territorial expansion at the expense of the Ottoman Empire.     

Analysis of the Current Situation in North Africa ＆ the Middle East

After the upsurge of domestic turmoil in Tunis last December,unrest spread rapidly through North Africa and the Middle East,having a profound effect on current international relations.It will continue to affect relations between the major powers and the international system as a whole for some time to come.The regional turmoil of North Africa and the Middle East is of particular interest to International Political Economy(IPE)studies.It seems to embody a geostrategic conflict between the US and the EU in contending for leadership in North Africa and the Middle East.It is also an expression of the competition for dominance of the global financial structure between the major powers during a period of transition in the international system.Lastly,it is a manifestation of America’s struggle to maintain its global economic hegemony.