MODEST PROSPECTS

Without a doubt,the Chinese economy has sailed safely through the global economic downturn,while the developed world struggles to restart its growth engine.China's economic momentum remained strong in the first half of this year,though the growth rate is heading south in the second quarter.So what risks lie ahead? How is the country's economic rebalancing progressing?     

PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

Beijing Review: Could you explain the domestic backdrop for the 12th Five-Year Plan? Hu Angang: From 2011 to 2015, China will still be in its golden period of development. The fast trend for industrialization, urbanization, knowledge informationization, infrastructure modernization and economic globalization going on now are all interlinked. They support and strengthen each other and are the five major forces driving China's development. The Chinese economy will continue to maintain relatively fast growth with a potential annual growth rate hitting 8-9 percent.     

Wanted:Patience and Strength

The world economy is now plagued by the deadly A/H1N1 flu. While many worry that it will cause a further economic slide, Ni Xiaolin, a senior commentator with Xinhua News Agency, told Beijing Review that she believes its influence on the Chinese economy can be limited. Her comments follow.     

My Shopping List

Millions of Chinese are hitting the roads, traveling back to their hometowns to celebrate the Spring Festival, the country's most important holiday. But amid the festive atmosphere, will their spending during the holiday be affected by the turbulent global economy? How do they intend to ride out the crisis for the rest of the year? Beijing Review interviewed 10 people from all walks of life and various professions about how they are coping with the financial downturn.     

8-PERCENT GROWTH AT HAND

When the Chinese Government announced the massive 4-trillion-yuan($586 billion)stimulus package,it meant not only to spur economic increase,but also to modify economic growth patterns and upgrade the national economic structure,in an effort to ensure the healthier,faster and better growth of the economy. To date,those measures have taken effect as reflected in restored investor confidence and active investment and consumption.However,a higher growth rate is not enough. Beijing Review publishes a series of a...     

Appreciating Happiness

China Central Television released the results of its recent happiness survey on January 12. The results show that almost 45 percent of more than 80,000 respondents—all Chinese—feel happy or very happy;about 11 percent are not happy. Recently,Beijing Review interviewed Hu Dayuan,Deputy Director of the China Center for Economic Research(CCER) at Peking University. Hu was a consultant on the survey and has done research on happiness for several years.     

New Plan Presents New Hope

After five years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has come to a critical juncture. As it maps out the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15), the country is preparing to rebalance the economy and improve people’s livelihoods. During the annual sessions of the 11th National People’s Congress (NPC) and the 11th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), NPC deputies and CPPCC National Committee members sat down with Beijing Review reporters Hu Yue and Yuan Yuan to talk about the country’s development in the next five years. Edited excerpts follow:     

MARKET WATCH

TO THE POINT: The Chinese economy maintained stable and relativelyfast growth in 2008 with eased inflation. Its GDP grew 9 percent last year,the first single-digit growth since 2002, and accounted for 20 percent of theglobal economy. Economists hope that the latest rescue measures adoptedby the Central Government could boost the country's economic performancein 2009. Inflation was brought under control as the consumer price index grewa satisfactory 1.2 percent in December year on year. The urban registered ...     

Performance Legitimacy,State Autonomy and China's Economic Miracle

Theories that explain post-Mao China's economic success tend to attribute it to one or several ‘successful’ policies or institutions of the Chinese government, or to account for the success from economic perspectives. This article argues that the success of the Chinese economy relies not just on the Chinese state's economic policy but also on its social policies. Moreover, China's economic success does not merely lie in the effectiveness of any single economic or social policy or institution, but also in the state's capacity to make a policy shift when it faces the negative unintended consequences of its earlier policies. The Chinese state is compelled to make policy shifts quickly because performance constitutes the primary base of its legitimacy, and the Chinese state is able to make policy shifts because it enjoys a high level of autonomy inherited from China's past. China's economic development follows no fixed policies and relies on no stable institutions, and there is no ‘China model’ or ‘Beijing consensus’ that can be constructed to explain its success.     

CRISIS FOCUS:'Panda Bonds' Might Help

Economists are having wide-ranging debates on how to rescue the world economy from the exacerbating financial crisis.Yu Yongding,Director of Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,suggested the creation ofpanda bondsto diver-sify the use of the nation's $2 trillion foreign reserves,which could boost liquidity in countries hit hard by the credit crunch.In an interview with Beijing Review,Yu discussed how the nation could use its huge foreign reserves.Edited excerp...     

Sharing Hopes and Opportunities

2009 marks the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Malaysia. On May 18, prior to his official visit to China scheduled for early June to celebrate this grand occasion, among others, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak met with a Chinese media group at the prime minister's department in Putrajaya, and answered their questions. Beijing Review reporter Zhou Jianxiong was also part of the press corps. Excepts from the interview follow:     

Lending a Helping Hand to SMEs

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play an integral role in China’s economy.About 99 percent of Chinese enterprises are SMEs which provide nearly 80 percent of job opportunities in urban areas and contribute 60 percent of the country’s GDP.Access of funds has long been a problem for Chinese SMEs as they are often considered too risky and banks prefer to lend to big companies,particularly reputable stateowned enterprises.But banks can do more to support SMEs,said Som Subroto,global head of SME Banking at Standard Chartered Bank in an article for Beijing Review.Edited excerpts follow.     

Brain Banks Among the Best

China's colossal number of think tanks on international relations are earning greater international recognition and exerting increasing influence on China's foreign policymaking.Leading think tanks,such as the China Institute of International Studies,China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations,China Center for Contemporary World Studies and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies,have made significant progress in the past decades.Beijing Review reporter Li Li recently interviewed Professor Jin Canrong,Associate Dean of the School of International Studies,Renmin University of China,to find out the latest development trends of these organizations.     

关于民营经济及相关理论问题的重要论点综述

2009年12月12日,"中国民营经济六十年研讨会"在北京召开.与会专家学者就新中国成立六十年来我国经济发展的轨迹进行了分析与梳理,就我国民营经济发展问题展开了热烈的讨论.主要观点认为:在所有制问题研究方面,公有制比重下降,不会削弱共产党的执政基础;关于对社会主义市场经济和民营经济的认识方面,真正的市场经济是以民营经济为基础的市场经济,因而市场经济所固有的社会主义方面和资本主义方面也都是以民营经济为微观基础的市场经济的固有功能和结果;关于民营经济发展的理论支持方面,未来三十年的改革足以社会为中心,其实质就足还权于民.     

Unhappy Misunderstanding

Song Qiang is one of the five authors whose essays make up the bestseller Unhappy China: The Great Time, Grand Vision and Our Challenges. Song also coauthored another widely popular book, China Can Say No, which came out in 1996. Beijing Review interviewed Song about his expectations and other people's disapproval of this new book.     

Political Economy of Cross-Strait Relations: is Beijing’s patronage policy on Taiwanese business sustainable?

Via quantitative analysis and interviews, this article examines the credibility and sustainability of Beijing’s patronage policy towards Taiwanese business. The new finding is that the rise of economic nationalism and local protectionism in China is undermining and constraining Beijing’s patronage policy. Consequently, China’s rising economy does not deepen cross-Strait integration but rather crowds out Taiwanese business. Moreover, considering the growing influence of Chinese domestic constraints, this article attempts to provide a bilateral two-level game to grasp the new dynamics on cross-Strait relations under the new normal.     

China and Asian regionalism: Challenge and policy choice

Regionalism has become an interesting phenomenon in Asian international relations. Driven by fast growing trade and investment, Asian countries have developed variegated patterns of economic co‐operation and a complex level of interdependence among themselves. Although the growing Asian regionalism is very much an economics‐driven process, it has profound impacts on regional political organization. This analysis examines Beijing's changing attitudes toward Asian regionalism and its policy choice in the regional economic integration. It is argued that the integration of the Chinese economy into the regional structure is promoted by the government as well as driven by market dynamics. Although Beijing has let the Chinese economy develop into the regional ‘flying geese’ structure, the best policy choice for China, as many Chinese scholars have argued, would be a three‐circle strategy of integrating into the world economy and a strategy of ‘market for technology’ in regional economic co‐operation. This analysis also discusses the regional political obstacles impeding co‐operation across national borders. It is argued that healthy bilateral relations and more political will toward regional multilateralism on political issues would be instrumental for future regional prosperity and stablity in Asia.     

Growing, Growing, Gone

Guangzhou is the capital city of Guangdong Province in China's developed southeast coastal area. Zhang Guangning, deputy to the 11th National People's Congress and Mayor of Guangzhou, told Beijing Review that the goal for Guangzhou's GDP growth in 2009 is 10 percent.     

More Than Sightseeing

The World Expo in Shanghai is being held just two years after China hosted the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing.Japan had a similar experience about 40 years ago.After Tokyo hosted the Olympic Games in 1964,another Japanese city,Osaka,hosted the World Expo.     

Confronting Western Myths About China

September 30 was a big day for David Ferguson. Dressed in his kilt, the 65-year-old Scotsman received the Friendship Award, the top prize given out annually by the Chinese Government to honor outstanding foreign experts, in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. "It was a very memorable experience," Ferguson told Beijing Review.