Is Germany Going Bananas? Life Cycle and Cohort Effects on Party Performance in Germany from 1953 to 2049

In the public debate concerning the consequences of demographic change in Germany it is often argued that the rising share of older voters will help the CDU/CSU to consolidate its power. This argumentation only applies if the age effect is assumed to be dominant. However, diverse socialisation backgrounds, captured by the cohort effect, also have to be taken into account. Based on the Repräsentative Wahlstatistik (Representative Electoral Statistic, RES) and Population Forecasts, the consequences of demographic shifts for federal elections since 1953 are estimated, as well as for future elections. First, age, cohort and period effects on vote choice for previous elections are calculated by using cohort analysis. Second, these effects are applied to the future age distribution. The results show that the ‘greying’ electorate is expected to favour the CDU/CSU and the FDP, while especially the SPD is likely to suffer electoral losses due to demographic shifts.     

俄罗斯中央与地方关系嬗变的宪法逻辑考察

俄罗斯中央与地方关系是保证国家稳定发展的重大问题。俄罗斯联邦宪法及具有宪法性法律文件是调整中央与地方关系的重要载体。从动力上,中央和地方对宪法的凝聚力是在强总统推动下逐渐实现的,总统—威权体制是中央与地方关系嬗变的动力;从趋势上看,中央与地方关系结构从分散联邦制走向了集中联邦制,职权从地方向中央聚集,并最终集中于总统;从控制上看,中央对地方官员的问责从横向政治问责转变为垂直行政问责,中央控制地方的重要手段是问责,对地方最高官员问责的提出与决定权集中于总统。实践证明,完全照搬西方的联邦制并没有带来国家的统一和安定,建立符合俄罗斯国情和现代化要求的联邦体制是中央与地方关系模式的基石,明确中央与地方权责的合理边界,是二者关系的核心;顺应民主法治化潮流,注重以法治方式构建长效稳定的关系格局,加大权力制约力度,这是维护良性关系的重要保障。     

On the Electoral Relevance of Education Policy in the German Länder

Education policy in Germany experienced a boom throughout the 2000s. Numerous reforms were implemented, quite far-reaching shifts of party programmes occurred, and the scope of institutions with an educational mandate widened considerably. At the same time, Landtag elections came to be seen as less dominated by federal politics. Yet we still know little about education policy's electoral relevance. The present article, following a most-likely design, analyses those five Landtag elections that were held since the reform of federalism in 2006 for which the importance of education policy ought to have been highest. It turns out that even though education is one of the very few policies which the Länder can decide upon autonomously, and despite the recent upsurge of regional factors in determining the outcomes of such second-order elections, nearly all Landtag elections are won or lost on other battlefields.     

Between Market‐Preserving Federalism and Intergovernmental Coordination: The Case of Australia

This article investigates Australia's economic success since the 1990s. As this was set in motion by fundamental political reforms, it asks to what extent Australian‐type federalism has been an important factor in the reform process. By using two approaches ‐ the market‐preserving federalism approach of Weingast, which stresses the virtues of ‘limited government’, decentralisation and competition together with the intergovernmental coordination approach of Scharpf which argues for a ‘problem‐solving’ orientation of territorial actors ‐, the structure of Australian federalism, changes in the working of the federal system in the 1990s, and effects on policy‐making are scrutinised. The article demonstrates that a particular combination of a rather centralised federal structure and a particular type of intergovernmental coordination, i.e. collaboration, supplemented by the strong influence of new public management ideas, has been conducive to political reforms in Australia. This suggests that a decentralised and competitive version of federalism, as defended by Weingast, is not a necessary condition for embarking on a successful reform path in federal countries. In future research, both approaches or analytical dimensions should be used in order to better understand the relationship of intergovernmental relations and policy reforms.     

Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.     

Building Democracy to Last: The Turkish Experience in Comparative Perspective

This study analyses the relationship between checks and balances and democracy, focusing on Turkey in comparative perspective. In a large-N setting, the effects of checks and balances on the quality of democracy are examined. The findings reinforce the essential relationship between democracy and checks and balances. The article then discusses the implications of the the findings for Turkey. It stresses the need for horizontal accountability via checks and balances vested in different state agencies. In addition to state-level checks and balances, the importance of societal actors as sources of accountability is also elaborated. The study identifies the need for vertical accountability, not only through free elections but also by creating a political setting in which pluralistic media and civil society can thrive. In light of findings, the article stresses the need for a new constitutional framework that can embrace both state- and societal-level checks and balances.     

The institutionalization of relative advantage: formal institutions,subconstitutional presidential powers,and the rise of authoritarian politics in Russia, 1994–2012

What role do formal institutions play in the consolidation of authoritarian regimes such as the Russian Federation? Oftentimes, it is assumed that autocrats, usually potent presidents, wield informal powers and control far-flung patron–client networks that undermine formal institutions and bolster their rule. After the institutional turn in authoritarianism studies, elections, parties, legislatures, or courts have taken center stage, yet presidencies and public law are still on the margins of this research paradigm. This paper proposes a method for measuring subconstitutional presidential power and its change by federal law, decrees, and Constitutional Court rulings as well as a theoretical framework for explaining when and under which conditions subconstitutional presidential power expands. It is argued that as a result of a gradual, small-scale, and slow-moving process of layering, presidential powers have been accumulated over time. This furthers the institutionalization of presidential advantage toward other federal and regional institutions, which in turn contributes to the consolidation of authoritarianism.     

Treaties and Intergovernmental Relations in Australia: Political Implications of the Toonen Case

This article explores the political implications of the Toonen case for studies of Australian federalism. The case involved a finding by the United Nations Human Rights Committee that Tasmania's anti-gay laws breached Australia's human rights obligations, and the subsequent passing of the Human Rights (Sexual Conduct) Act 1994 (Cth) designed to override sections of Tasmania's criminal law.
The Commonwealth's use of the external affairs power to ratify international treaties is outlined, and some questions regarding Commonwealth and state responsibilities and areas of concern flowing from treaty ratification are examined. The Privacy Act is discussed, and the character of intergovernmental relations and cooperation in this instance analysed.
The case raises the question of whether the Commonwealth's capacity to use and expand its powers is subject to effective checks and balances, or is limiting or eroding the powers of the states to the extent that the division and sharing of powers no longer represents that of a federal system. The article concludes that Australian federalism is dynamic and flexible, and reaffirms that a differentiation between the process and outcome of intergovernmental relations will enhance our understanding of its machinations.     

Is a Federal European Constitution for an Enlarged European Union Necessary? Some Preliminary Suggestions using Public Choice Analysis

In order to guarantee a further successful functioning of the enlarged European Union a Federal European Constitution is proposed. Six basic elements of a future European federal constitution are developed: the European commission should be turned into a European government and the European legislation should consist of a two chamber system with full responsibility over all federal items. Three further key elements are the subsidiarity principle, federalism and the secession right, which are best suited to limiting the domain of the central European authority to which certain tasks are given, such as defense, foreign and environmental policy. Another important feature is direct democracy, which provides the possibility for European voters to participate actively in political decision making, to break political and interest group cartels, and to prevent an unwanted shifting of responsibilities from EU member states to the European federal level.     

Federal-level Government Participation and State-level Electoral Performance: A Party-based Analysis of Land Elections in Germany, 1949–2017

To what extent does the federal political arena contaminate the regional one in Germany? Does a party’s position as government or opposition on the federal level have a systematic impact on its performance in Land elections? Land elections are often characterised as second order elections, but existing empirical studies that use real election data suffer from important methodological problems. Unlike previous approaches using survey data or comparing vote shares in regional and federal elections, we analyse contamination in two ways. First, we test whether a party’s role at the federal level has a systematic impact on gaining or losing office at the Land level. Second, we examine the vote difference of parties relative to their result in the previous election in the Land. Drawing on a complete dataset of all Land elections from 1949 to 2017, we find confirmation for two phenomena well known in comparative electoral studies. First, the anti-incumbency effect: government parties tend to lose votes. In the German context, as in many other multilevel systems, this is exacerbated by the second effect: contamination. Gaining power or votes on the Land level is very difficult when a party is in government on the federal level.     

Strength through Weakness: State Executive Power and Federal Reform in Austria

Due to the absence of a strong constitutional veto player, comparative research uses to classify Austria as country with weak federal structures, occasionally even as a “federation without federalism”. From an institutional perspective, the assessment is definitely correct, in particular with regard to the nearly insignificant status of the second chamber Bundesrat. Apart from constitutional provisions, however, there are informal forces at work in decision‐making processes. Our thesis is that any approach ignoring the fact that the nominal constitution is paralleled by a real one falls short. Instead, we focus on the Conference of State Governors which, though not established by law, is a strong player in Austria's multi‐layered system qualifying the picture of “weak” federalism. The paper gives on overview of origin and function of the conference and its ambivalent role in making up for the shortcomings of the federal structures. Taking recent attempts of reorganizing fiscal equalization between states and federation as an example, the need of reforming the allocation of rights and duties between the different levels and, at the same time, the obstacles blocking the reform is outlined and analyzed.     

What's Right about the Left–Right Dimension? The Causes and the Consequences of Ideological Inconsistency on Economic Issues in Germany

There is growing evidence that policy preferences of citizens on economic issues do not follow an ideological left–right pattern; that is, from the perspective of political science theory, citizens' economic policy preferences are ideologically inconsistent. This article examines this phenomenon for the German case. It shows that a large share of German citizens have ideologically inconsistent views on economic issues. The article further investigates the causes of this ideological inconsistency and its consequences for democratic representation: citizens with inconsistent views tend to be more dissatisfied with their own societal position and tend to have less political knowledge. The article further shows that citizens with ideologically inconsistent views are less satisfied with democracy and less likely to vote in elections, because they cannot find adequate representation among the established parties.     

Anti-Partyism in German Independent Local Lists: Empirical Insights from a Membership Study

In the past few decades, independent local lists in German municipalities have become serious competitors to political parties. However, despite their widespread presence and success, party researchers have largely ignored this phenomenon. Empirical evidence concerning the attitudes of their members towards political parties is rare. Thus far, it remains unclear whether their self-described image as non-parties or anti-parties is restricted to the sphere of local politics or accompanies a general rejection of parties in federal politics. First, the article conceptualises anti-partyism and proposes an analytical distinction between their intensity and related political level. It then analyses the consequences of different patterns of local politics and group characteristics as well as individual determinants to explain the degree of anti-party sentiment. This study improves our understanding of independents and whether they promote party democracy or are a product of political dissatisfaction. Based on a cross-sectional postal survey, multi-level regression models are used to test the hypotheses. The results show that anti-partyism is particularly strong towards party politics at the local level, whereas the general legitimacy of party democracy is not questioned in federal politics.     

Fiscal Federalism and International Capital: The Effects of Fiscal Federalism on Foreign Direct Investment and Sovereign Dept Ratings

Although the study of federalism has become one of the most intensely studied areas in economics and political science, no consensus has emerged on the impact of fiscal federalism on macroeconomic performance. I focus on one specific element of the debate‐ the role of fiscally federal institutions in allowing a country access to international capital markets. In an empirical analysis of 60 countries from 1975‐1995 I find fiscal federalism has no clear impact on inflows of foreign direct investment. In an examination of the impact of federalism on sovereign debt ratings for 40 countries from 1980‐1998, I find that fiscal federalism is associated with lower levels of sovereign debt risk.     

Mubarak's Constitutional Reforms

Egypt's President, Hosni Mubarak, is noted for having perfected the art of seemingly introducing reforms while actually consolidating his autocratic rule. In response to domestic and international pressure, he has recently introduced further reforms, in the hope of silencing the opposition and officially rectifying Egypt's poor human rights record. In his speeches and public statements, Mubarak has promised to set Egypt on the road to freedom, human rights, and democracy. He has established a National Council for Human Rights, more freedom for political parties and the press, and a series of constitutional amendments liberalising presidential elections and allowing more democracy, with a great deal of fanfare. This paper will consider the significance in reality of these constitutional amendments, particularly as regards human rights and democracy, the powers of the president and the role of non-governmental organisations and ordinary citizens in decision making. We conclude that, welcome as they are, the reforms have so far not been effective in moderating the president's absolute authority, neither have they lived up to public expectations. Whatever reform measures the Egyptian government has reluctantly introduced have been drained of any real substance by legal stratagems or hedged with all sorts of restrictions.     

Just a Matter of Timing? Local Electoral Turnout in Germany in the Context of National and European Parliamentary Elections

This article looks at the impact of national and European elections on turnout in German local council elections. The focus is first on effects from the timing of local council elections in between two federal elections and second on turnout effects from the combination of local council elections and European parliamentary elections. Starting from considerations about the relationships between high- and low-stimulus elections the article analyses data from 111 German local council elections held between 1951 and 2008. The analyses show first that upcoming national elections do mobilise voters to cast their ballots in regions where local council turnout traditionally is low. Second, combining European and local elections tends to reinforce turnout as well.     

An assessment of Botswana's electoral management body to deliver fair elections

Botswana has regularly held general elections since 1965 and in October 2014 held her 11th general election. All these elections have so far been won by the ruling party. The regularity of elections in Botswana has persuaded some observers to present Botswana as an exemplar of democracy and good governance in Africa. This perception is reinforced by the formal existence of an electoral management body, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), whose mandate is to ensure that elections are conducted efficiently, properly, freely and fairly. Although the Constitution enjoins the IEC to ensure that elections are conducted fairly, this article reveals that, in effect, the IEC has neither the authority nor the power to level the electoral playing field, and ensure that elections are also fair, in addition to being conducted efficiently, properly and freely. This inability by Botswana's electoral management body to ensure that elections are conducted fairly emanates from the narrow legal and political framework within which the IEC operates, and exposes the weaknesses of Botswana's much vaunted democracy.     

Poderes fácticos,comunicación y gobernabilidad: un acercamiento conceptual

The category of factual powers has become a fashionable term. Beyond observable differences in the journalistic, academic or political interests of the scholarly approaches to the topic, the author considers that it is possible to affirm that this question is inextricably related to the issue of democracy, and specifically its viability and governability. This article is framed within this analytic and contextual perspective -factual powers, democracy and governability. Given that the category has not a univocal meaning, after drawing basic differences among the various interest groups, pressure groups and factual powers, it characterizes those emerging social actors capable to dispute the power of formal institutions and analyzes the particular composition of the mass media.     

Egypt’s 2011–2012 parliamentary elections: Voting for religious vs. secular democracy?

This study investigates whether individuals’ attitudes towards democracy and secular politics have any influence on voting behaviour in Egypt. Based on data from survey conducted immediately after the Egyptian parliamentary elections in January 2012, this study finds that Egyptians’ attitudes towards democratic governance were quite negative around the parliamentary elections, yet Egyptians still endorsed democracy as the ideal political system for their country. However, empirical findings suggest that support for democracy has a limited impact on electoral results. On the other hand, the main division in Egyptian society around the first free and fair parliamentary elections was the religious–secular cleavage. As people support secular politics more, they become significantly less likely to vote for Islamist parties. These results illustrate that preferences in regard to the type of the democracy – either a liberal and secular or a religious democracy – were the main determinant of the historic 2012 elections in Egypt.