Newspaper Coverage of Three Presidential Campaigns in Chile: Personalisation and Political Strategies

We investigate the evolution of political campaign coverage through a content analysis of the topics highlighted in newspapers' agendas during three presidential elections in Chile. Results show an expected increase in the space allocated to the politicians' private lives (privatisation) by 2009, but no change in the attention given to individual politicians' political traits (political competence). Coverage of candidates' campaign strategies had increased markedly in media agendas by 1999, and by 2009 in politicians' agendas. These changes are consistent with some of the recent transformations of political communication in Western democracies, within the framework of the so‐called ‘mediatisation’ of politics.     

The Electoral Consequences of Direct Political Action: Evidence from Brazil

Democracy affords citizens the ability to influence policy through participation in elections and through direct political action. Though previous scholarship evaluates the impact each strategy has on outcomes, little if any work exists that examines how one strategy, direct action, affects success in the other, elections. This study analyzes the relationship between land occupations and the electoral success of the Workers' Party in Brazil between 1996 and 2006. It finds that the relationship varies in presidential and mayoral elections depending on income inequality and incumbency. Once the PT captures the presidential office in 2002, these effects disappear, suggesting that the effect of political protest also depends on who is in office.     

An exploratory study of constitutional design in three island states: Seychelles,Comoros, and Mauritius

This article explores the effects of constitutional design on conflict management and democratisation outcomes in three African island states: Seychelles, Comoros, and Mauritius. As an exploratory framework, the article reflects upon Arend Lijphart’s theory of accommodative constitutional design in view of political developments in the three cases, beginning around their independence and continuing into recent times. The case studies provide some general support to Lijphart’s accommodative theory, and particularly to the need to facilitate broad representation and an overall sense of political inclusion, but they also raise critical questions regarding the effects of his institutional recommendations. Contrary to Lijphart’s approach, majoritarian legislative elections might under certain conditions facilitate greater inclusion than proportional representation, and direct presidential elections could sometimes be more inclusive than a parliamentary executive. The findings on Lijphart’s recommendations of group autonomy are less clear, particularly regarding the question of whether territorial autonomy might increase risks of secession.     

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.     

Local elections and democracy in Indonesia: The Riau Archipelago

This essay examines the dynamics and outcomes of Indonesia's first-ever direct local executive elections in a case study of the gubernatorial election in the Riau Archipelago. Specifically, the essay examines the election process, identifies the major issues before, during and after the elections, and assesses voters' participation. The essay then examines the ways direct local executive elections have affected the dynamics of local politics in the country. Overall, this essay aims to further develop our understanding of political dynamics in the Riau Archipelago and grasp the practical significance of local political change in Indonesia more broadly.     

Post-crisis Political Normalisation? The 2018 Presidential Elections in the Republic of Cyprus

This article takes stock of the most recent presidential election in the Republic of Cyprus and connects it to broader currents in post-crisis European political settings. Although the elections took place against a backdrop of improving economic prospects, the crisis has left its political mark in a number of areas we identify that include a growing political fragmentation, the rise of the far right and increased voter abstention. The empirical analysis focuses on the media campaign and draws on a topic-modelling approach to identify and contrast emphasis given to policy issues over the two electoral rounds. The policy themes identified clustered around two dominant dimensions of political conflict: the Cyprus conflict and the economy.     

Russia's Forced-Choice Presidential Election

Have there been changes in political institutions, parties, leaders, and regional political orientations in Ukraine after the "Orange Revolution"? If so, are the changes revolutionary or evolutionary? Most previous studies refer to the 2004 presidential elections and mass protest actions as a revolution. To test this claim, this article analyzes political changes in Ukraine. Survey data are used to compare changes in pro-Russian and pro-Western orientation, support for major parties in the 2002, 2006, and 2007 parliamentary elections, and support for leading presidential candidates since the 2004 presidential elections. The implications of these changes for development of democracy in Ukraine are also considered.     

Minimum Winning Electoral Coalitions Under Presidentialism: Reality or Fiction? The Case of Brazil

This article studies the motivations of party leaders to form "minimum winning" electoral coalitions—alliances that cease to be winning if one member is subtracted. In Brazil, concurrent elections stimulate political actors' coordination, and electoral alliances are allowed. In 2002 and 2006, moreover, the Electoral Supreme Court obliged those parties with presidential candidates to replicate this electoral arrangement in the district. Under "verticalization," parties with presidential candidates could not form alliances with rival parties in the concurrent legislative and gubernatorial elections. Verticalization arguably pushed party leaders to form minimum winning electoral coalitions. This new rule forced them to reconsider the contributions of each possible ally in the elections for president, federal deputy, and governor. Examining the elections from 1998 to 2006, this study finds that under verticalization, while parties did form more electoral coalitions with those partners they considered crucial to win, they did so at the expense of policy.     

‘Conflict and confrontation’: A comparison of the effect of trade embargoes on executive‐legislative relations in the USA during the Truman and Reagan years

This article examines the conflict between the American Congress and Presidency in US trade embargo policy during the Truman and Reagan years. After reviewing two cases of legislative‐executive confrontation over trade embargoes against the Soviet Union in the late‐1940s and early‐1950s and South Africa in the 1980s, it concludes that Congress has been successful in modifying presidential policy‐making that it believes does not serve the national interest. This is due to its powerful position in the American political process as the initiator of legislation. Its law making powers have allowed it to review executive foreign policy decisions forcing the Presidency to change its approach to particular policy concerns.     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

Domestic Contestation and Presidential Prerogative in Colombian Foreign Policy

The study of Colombian foreign policy emphasises external constraints and presidential prerogative in foreign policymaking. Drawing on insights from recent foreign policy analysis literature and evidence from several cases (Plan Colombia, US military bases, free trade talks with China, and ICJ arbitration of a maritime border with Nicaragua), this article challenges commonplace presidentialist assumptions. A novel model of ‘contested presidentialism’ better captures how Colombian domestic actors mobilise to raise political costs to block or modify presidential preferences. When the opposition fails to raise costs, presidentialist assumptions apply. Otherwise, presidents respond strategically by abandoning policies or substituting second-best alternatives.     

Social change, political elections, and the middle class in Korea

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the political orientations of the Korean middle classes as they were manifested in their voting behavior in the general and presidential elections. In addition, the present study examines the nature of the involvement of the middle classes in the context of each of the major historical events since the liberation from the Japanese colonial rule. The event-specific analysis of the middle class participation made it possible to test the fitness of different hypotheses about the political orientation of the Korean middle classes. With few notable exceptions, the middle classes had not been actively involved in protest movements. Rather, they rely on the democratic political systems to passively promote their own agenda and political transformation. Overall, the middle classes have remained a substantial and silent force, with the potential to be backbone of stability or the engine for change. Their force has been felt strongest in the general and presidential elections, where their support for or opposition to, the ruling party has consistently determined the outcomes. With the growth of voluntary associations representing a wide variety of causes, the middle classes' strength may be diluted somewhat by the number of issues for protest. A cause that finds support across the middle class An earlier version this article was presented at the Conference on “The Republic of Korea After 50 Years: Continuity and Convergence,” Georgetown University, Washington, D.C., October 2–3, 1998.     

Iran as a Peculiar Hybrid Regime: Structure and Dynamics of the Islamic Republic

This article is based on the assumption that the Iranian political system is a peculiar form of a hybrid regime and is based on two hypotheses. The first is that the originality of the Iranian political system depends on two main factors: a constitutional compromise between the secular and clerical components and the particular way in which presidential elections are held. The second hypothesis concerns the consequences of this institutional arrangement. On the one hand, in particular phases, presidential elections may play an inclusive function thanks to a certain degree of responsiveness of ordinary policies. On the other hand, they may instead raise the expectations and political demands for regime change that, if suppressed, could generate tensions and instability. The first part of this work will be devoted to a brief presentation of the concept of hybrid systems and to the collocation of the Iranian system in this category. The second part will examine some crucial political phases experienced by Iran which highlight the functioning of the regime, explaining its stability and vulnerability.     

Presidential Attribution as an Agency of Prime Ministerial Critique in a Parliamentary Democracy: The Case of Tony Blair

The allusion to presidentialism in relation to the status, role and meaning of a prime minister's position is almost invariably skewed towards positive, purposive and expansive interpretations of strong executive authority. This study examines the negative and critical dimensions of the presidential attribution, and analyses the nature of its appeal as a device for organising and rationalising political dissent. The incidence and conditions of its usage in political argument during Tony Blair's premiership are reviewed. As a consequence, seven strands of usage are identified in the selection of presidentialism as a focus of opposition. In assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the presidential critique, the analysis not only shows its utility in drawing upon other sources of complaint, but also demonstrates its limitations in the delegitimation of executive authority.     

Conflict-Management in Russia's Federal Institutions

A political scientist examines factors leading to instability in the Russian legislative and executive branches. The article focuses on the design of Russia's “unlinked dual-channel” institutions-particularly, partisan factions and legislative committees in the Duma, and the presidential administration and government apparatus in the executive branch. Media sources and the author's personal interviews with Duma, Kremlin, and ministry officials are analyzed.     

Manifestos and elections in Ghana's Fourth Republic

Debate continues over the factors that influence electoral outcomes or voter behaviour and alignment in elections all over the world. Several factors have been noted, including the manifestos of political parties. In spite of the potential influence of the party manifesto, several comparative and empirical studies on elections in Ghana have paid little or no attention to manifestos in determining the electoral outcomes of political parties in the Fourth Republic.This paper makes a contribution to the debate by examining how manifestos have influenced the electoral chances of the two main political parties which have been in and out of government in Ghana since the inception of the Fourth Republic, namely, the National Democratic Congress and the New Patriotic Party. Analysis covers the five elections held in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. Specifically, it discusses not only the ability of the manifestos to shape policy debate but also to some extent, influence electoral outcomes. The paper concludes with some lessons learned.     

Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: The Salience of Electoral Reforms

Nigeria’s 2015 general elections were followed by positive remarks by trusted local and international observers. The highpoint of the elections was the emergence of the opposition candidate as the winner of the 28 March presidential elections. Clearly, this is unprecedented in the electoral history of Nigeria considering the enormous influence that surrounds the office of the incumbent executive in the country. This article analyses the reforms that enhanced the integrity of the elections. The article illustrates the electoral reforms introduced by the electoral management body and their connection to the improvement of the integrity of the 2015 general elections.     

Namibia's national assembly and presidential elections 2009: Did democracy win?

National Assembly and presidential elections were held in Namibia on 27 and 28 November 2009. The former liberation movement South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) once again secured an overwhelming majority of votes, which consolidated its de facto one-party rule. But the build up to these elections, the contestation by a newly established party and the disputed election results indicated a growing polarisation and a totalitarian tendency, which dents the positive image hitherto associated with Namibian democracy. This election analysis summarises features before, during and after the elections and puts the voting results into a party political context.     

The national politics of EU enlargement in the Western Balkans

Abstract

European enlargement has often been viewed from an institutional perspective. The academic literature in the field has tended to focus primarily on how the Commission or the Council has addressed the issue of EU expansion. Relatively little attention has been paid to the role of individual member states. This article considers the way in which domestic political concerns and national politics affects the way in which EU members approach enlargement to the Western Balkans. It does this by examining studies conducted on seven countries: Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Hungary, Greece and Cyprus. It shows that there are in fact a wide variety of factors that shape individual member state attitudes towards enlargement. These factors include economic and commercial goals, ties to the region and to individual accession states, concerns over immigration, general foreign policy priorities and national ideological approaches towards the future shape and orientation of the European Union.     

Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.