Twenty years of operational use of a risk prediction instrument: The United States parole commission's salient factor score

Although empirically-based recidivism prediction instruments were developed as far back as the 1920s, the adoption of the Salient Factor Score by the federal parole board in 1972—as part of a system of explicit parole decisionmaking guidelines—marked the first time that such an instrument was used in a way that had a definite, measurable impact on paroling decisions. The Salient Factor Score has been used in federal parole decisionmaking continuously for the past twenty years. It is axiomatic that a prediction instrument, particularly an instrument used in actual case decisionmaking, be revalidated periodically to ensure that it has retained predictive accuracy. In this article, the predictive accuracy of the Salient Factor Score over time is examined using data on three, large random samples of federal prisoners released in 1970–1972, 1978, and 1987. In addition, the relationship of the Salient Factor Score to the Criminal History Score of the new federal sentencing guidelines—which apply to defendants convicted of federal offenses committed on or after November 1, 1987—is discussed.     

LEVELS AND PREDICTORS OF RECIDIVISM: THE MALTA EXPERIENCE*

Research on recidivism has been confined primarily to a few highly industrialized Western nations (e.g., United States, Great Britain, Canada, and Australia) in which the data and resources needed for such research are readily available. The restriction of recidivism research to such a small number of nations begs the question: Do these results reflect patterns of offending and products of the criminal justice systems unique to these nations, or do they describe patterns of recidivism across a much wider range of social and cultural contexts? In this study I extend the scope of recidivism research by examining levels and patterns of recidivism in the Republic of Malta, a small Mediterranean island that differs considerably from the typical context in which recidivism is studied. Specifically, I examine the likelihood of recidivism among persons released from Malta's only prison between 1976 and 1994. In addition, I examine factors shown in previous research to be strong predictors of recidivism to assess their value as predictors of recidivism among Maltese prisoners. Proportional hazards regression models reveal that levels and predictors of recidivism in Malta approximate those observed in societies that are socially and culturally quite different. The findings suggest that the role of social institutions in reintegrating offenders into society may be more complex than commonly believed.     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

Objective: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime.Method: All the literate inmates in zmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use.Results: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%.Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model.Conclusion: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

Male victims and post treatment risk assessment among adult male sex offenders

The use of actuarial instruments to predict sex offender recidivism has gained increasing credibility in recent years. This paper is one in a series examining the impact of dynamic inpatient group therapy upon the predictive influence of static risk factors on recidivism among adult sex offenders. Successful completion of the Phoenix Program (Alberta Hospital Edmonton) has been shown to ameliorate the influence of static risk factors on sexual offense recidivism. Many studies have reported that sex offenders who have male victims are more likely to re-offend than those who do not have male victims. A sample of N=513 convicted adult male sex offenders was examined regarding the relationship between the static risk factor of having male victims, subsequent re-offense, and treatment impact. Interestingly, ever having had a male victim did not significantly correlate with sex offense recidivism, for either treatment completers, non-completers, or the combined group. However, having exclusively male victims was correlated with sex offense recidivism, but only among non-completers of the program (r=.155; p=.017). Analysis of a subset of 422 child molesters yielded a similar result, in that having male victims exclusively was only associated with sex offense recidivism among treatment non-completers (r=.189, p=.009).     

An evaluation of a maximum security therapeutic community for psychopaths and other mentally disordered offenders

Psychopaths present serious problems for the criminal justice system because they are responsible for many serious crimes and appear to be very resistant to treatment. The present study was a retrospective evaluation of the efficacy of a maximum security therapeutic community program in reducing recidivism among mentally disordered offenders, some of whom were psychopaths. The study employed a matched group, quasiexperimental design. The results showed that, compared to no program (in most cases prison), treatment was associated with lower recidivism (especially violent recidivism) for nonpsychopaths and higher violent recidivism for psychopaths. The clinical and research utility of Hare's Psychopathy Checklist was strongly supported.     

Reentry and the Ties that Bind: An Examination of Social Ties,Employment, and Recidivism

Scholars consistently find that reentering offenders who obtain steady work and maintain social ties to family are less likely to recidivate. Some theorize that familial ties may operate through employment to influence recidivism and that such ties may also serve a moderating role. The current study employs an integrated conceptual framework in order to test hypotheses about the link between familial ties, post‐release employment, and recidivism. The findings suggest that family ties have implications for both recidivism and job attainment. In fact, the results suggest that good quality social ties may be particularly important for men with histories of frequent unemployment. The implications of these findings are discussed with regard to theory and future research on prisoner reentry and recidivism.     

A cross-sectional study on expression of anger and factors associated with criminal recidivism in prisoners with prior offences

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to determine demographical characteristics leading to crime recidivism and define anger levels and anger expression manners for those who re-commit crime. METHOD: All the literate inmates in Izmit Closed Penitentiary were included in this cross-sectional study. The prisoners were asked to respond to State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory. Their socio-demographic data were collected and a questionnaire was given to them to determine their state of imprisonment, sentence, nature of the crime in which they were involved, their criminal history, their relationship with inmates and prison staff and substance and alcohol use. RESULTS: Of the 438 prisoners, 302 (68.9%) responded to the questionnaires. Crime recidivism among the study cohort was observed to be 37.4%. Mean trait anger, anger out and anger in scores were significantly higher in prisoners with criminal recidivism in comparison with those who did not have prior criminal records. However, mean anger control scores for prisoners with or without criminal recidivism were similar. Unemployment, education level completed at secondary school or below, having committed a crime under the influence of alcohol or narcotics, having been involved in prison fights, having resisted police officers, caused damage in their vicinity when angry and violent crimes were all found to be possible causes of criminal recidivism. Educational level completed at secondary school or below, getting into fights with other prisoners, unemployment and resisting police officers were determined to be the strongest indicators to predict criminal recidivism when all variables were considered according to a logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: It can be proposed that those who have problems with officials or hostile towards others constitute a risk group for criminal recidivism. If prisoners with criminal recidivism can be helped to identify and control their anger, their risk of committing a new crime can be minimised.     

Evaluating the Effectiveness of the National Curriculum and Training Institute’s “Cognitive Life Skills” Program among Parolees Supervised by Pennsylvania’s Board of Probation & Parole

Recently, cognitive-behavioral approaches for rehabilitation have shown measured success for reducing recidivism rates among offenders after release from prison. The present analysis utilized data provided by Pennsylvania’s Board of Probation & Parole about offenders who completed the Cognitive Life Skills program developed by the National Curriculum and Training Institute. Propensity scoring techniques were employed to match a group of offenders who completed the program (treatment) with a statistically equivalent group who did not receive it (control). Matching variables included location and year of release, risk level, gender, age, race, offense category, and history of violent offending. General findings from a Cox proportional hazard model revealed gender, age, and criminal history impacted future incidents of recidivism, measured as re-incarceration. More importantly, the hazard model revealed, on average, a 24 % reduction in recidivism among the treatment group offenders and, on average, a 31 % reduction among high risk offenders exclusively. Policy implications will be discussed.     

Youth Psychopathy and Criminal Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis of the Psychopathy Checklist Measures

Although narrative reviews have suggested that "youth psychopathy" is a strong predictor of future crime and violence, to date no quantitative summaries of this literature have been conducted. We meta-analyzed recidivism data for the Psychopathy Checklist measures across 21 non-overlapping samples of male and female juvenile offenders. After removing outliers, psychopathy was significantly associated with general and violent recidivism (r (w)'s of .24 and .25, respectively), but negligibly related to sexual recidivism in the few studies examining this low base rate outcome. Even after eliminating outliers, however, considerable heterogeneity was noted among the effects, with some of this variability being explained by the gender and ethnic composition of the samples. Effect sizes for the small number of female samples available for analysis were mostly small and nonsignificant, and psychopathy was a weaker predictor of violent recidivism among more ethnically heterogeneous samples. In relation to predicting both general and violent recidivism, psychopathy performed comparably to an instrument designed specifically to assess risk, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (Hoge & Andrews, 2002).     

Predictors of desistance among sex offenders: The interaction of formal and informal social controls

Increasing attention is being given to the issue of desistance or cessation in adult criminal careers. We contribute to this research by considering how informal and formal social controls affect recidivism among 556 sex offenders placed on probation in 1992. We conduct an event history analysis of reoffense, based on the predictions of Sampson and Laub's and Gottfredson and Hirschi's control theories. We build on these perspectives by examining how informal social controls condition the effects of formal social controls generally and across offense types. We find less recidivism among offenders with stable job histories, particularly among those in court-ordered sex offender treatment. The results add both to theoretical formulations concerning desistance and recidivism and to policy formulations directed at growing prison populations.     

Can electronic monitoring reduce crime for moderate to high-risk offenders?

Electronic monitoring (EM) of offenders has been in use for just over two decades and motives for using it remain diverse. Some agencies that use EM attempt to deliver humane and affordable sanctions while others seek to relieve jail crowding or to avoid the construction of new jails. Nonetheless, all EM programs aim to suppress the criminal behavior of offenders being monitored and its advocates have always hoped EM could be instrumental in reducing long-term recidivism. This review investigates the history of EM and the extent to which EM empirically affects criminal behavior in moderate to high-risk populations. All available recidivism studies that included at least one comparison group between the first impact study in 1986 and 2002 were considered for the review. Although variants such as GPS tracking and continuous testing for alcohol in perspiration have recently emerged, no studies of these technologies were found that met the review’s inclusion criteria. Studies are examined and combined for meta-analysis where appropriate. Given its continued and widespread use and the dearth of reliable information about its effects, the authors conclude that applications of EM as a tool for reducing crime are not supported by existing data. Properly controlled experiments would be required to draw stronger conclusions about the effects of EM.     

The effectiveness of interactive journaling in reducing recidivism among substance-dependent jail inmates

The present study sought to evaluate the influence of interactive journaling on criminal recidivism and identify significant predictors of recidivism among a sample of 183 male inmates incarcerated in a local jail facility randomly assigned to either an interactive journaling condition or a control group. All participants met DSM-IV-TR criteria for substance dependence, had their current offense indicate substance involvement, and had a minimum of one previous arrest in the prior 12 months. The recidivism rate (51%), in terms of subsequent bookings within a 12-month period, for the journaling group was significantly lower than the recidivism rate (66%) for the control group, χ(2)(1, 183) = 4.13, p < .05. The three most significant independent predictors of subsequent bookings were severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, group assignment (journaling vs. placebo), and employment status. Interactive journaling appears to show promise as a brief treatment intervention strategy for substance dependence in local jail settings and may have the potential for reducing recidivism.     

RACE-SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT CONTEXTS AND RECIDIVISM*

Although much literature has examined macrolevel employment contexts and crime rates and, at the individual level, employment and offending, few studies have examined systematically whether macrolevel employment contexts influence individual-level offending. At the same time, emerging literature on prisoner reentry increasingly underscores the potential importance of the social environment for impeding or facilitating successful transitions back into society. All three avenues of inquiry have emphasized the salience of race-specific and offense-specific effects. This study extends prior work on ecology and offending, employment and crime, and prisoner reentry by examining the race-specific effects of unemployment rates and manufacturing employment rates on violent, property, and drug recidivism. By analyzing data on male ex-prisoners released to 67 counties in Florida, we found, as hypothesized, that Black ex-prisoners released to areas with higher Black male unemployment rates have a greater likelihood of violent recidivism. No comparable effect was identified for White exprisoners. However, we found that White ex-prisoners, especially those without prior violent convictions, have a lower likelihood of violent recidivism when released to areas with higher White male manufacturing employment rates. We discuss the findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy.     

Recidivism Among People Sentenced to Community Service in Finland

The influence of community service on recidivism is studied by comparing the subsequent recidivism of people sentenced to community service with the recidivism of people sentenced to prison for a maximum of 8 months. The distributon of sex, age, principal offence, times in prison and length of sentence in the prison group was analogous to that of the community service group. The follow-up period was 5 years. The analysis shows, compared to recidivism after prison sentences, was slightly lower. In the light of this, community service seems to be a suitable sanction in particular for sentenced people lacking previous prison experience.     

Early criminal recidivism among mentally disordered offenders

Criminal recidivism was studied during 2 years in a Swedish population-based cohort (N = 318) of mentally disordered male offenders who had undergone a pretrial forensic psychiatric investigation, been convicted in subsequent trials, and been sentenced to forensic psychiatric treatment (FPT; n = 152), prison (n = 116), or noncustodial sanctions (n = 50). Recidivism was analysed in relation to index sanctions, levels of supervision, diagnoses, and criminological factors. Significantly lower recidivism in the FPT group was related to lower crime rates during periods at conditional liberty in this group alone, and recidivism was significantly more common among offenders with at least one of the two diagnoses of substance abuse disorder and personality disorder than among those with psychotic or other mental disorders alone. Age at index crime and number of previous crimes emerged as significant predictors of recidivism. The results of this study suggest that the relapse rates depend as much on level of supervision as on individual characteristics.     

Long-term recidivism of mental health court defendants

The first MHC was established in 1997 and now, over 15 years later, there are over 300 mental health courts in the United States. In a relatively short time these courts have become an established criminal justice intervention for persons with a mental illness. However, few studies have looked at the long-term outcomes of MHCs on criminal recidivism. Of the studies evaluating the impact of MHCs on criminal recidivism, most follow defendants after entry into the court during their participation, and only a few have followed defendants after court exit for periods of one or two years. This study follows MHC defendants for a minimum of five years to examine recidivism post-exit with particular attention to MHC completion's effect. Findings show that 53.9% of all MHC defendants were rearrested in the follow-up and averaged 15 months to rearrest. Defendants who completed MHC were significantly less likely to be rearrested (39.6% vs. 74.8%), and went longer before recidivating (17.15 months vs. 12.27 months) than those who did not complete. This study suggests that MHCs can reduce criminal recidivism among offenders with mental illness and that this effect is sustained for several years after defendants are no longer under the court's supervision.     

Jail drug and alcohol treatment program reduces recidivism in nonviolent offenders: a longitudinal study of Monroe County, New York's, Jail Treatment Drug and Alcohol Program

Substance abuse treatment has become the new fashion for reducing recidivism among inmates. But the question is, does this work? Various studies have been done tracking the same cohort of inmates over time to assess the validity of treatment. This study assesses one treatment program's success over 5 years to determine if drug and alcohol treatment reduces recidivism among nonviolent, short-term (sentence of less than a year) inmates. Monroe County's drug treatment program demonstrates that for 1 year after receiving the treatment, three different cohorts of nonviolent, short-term inmates (1995, 1998, and 2000) were found to be substantially less likely to be recidivists than control group inmates.     

The Needs of Women Offenders

Abstract

Recent corrections research indicates that programs and community services providing assistance and training for women offenders are lacking. Using a sample of 402 female felony offenders, women's needs, including those thought to be criminogenic (i.e., characteristics and circumstances that heighten an individual's recidivism risk), are examined to determine whether certain groups of women possess similar sets of needs. Cluster analysis is used to identify combinations of needs shared within subgroups of female felons. Identification of common and co-occurring needs, particularly those associated with high risk for recidivism, can assist program staff, advocates for women offenders, and correctional administrators in determining what combination of program elements should be available to women, and the degree to which programming must address multiple domains.     

Role-Taking and Recidivism: A Test of Differential Social Control Theory

This research measures group differences in recidivism before and after implementation of Megan’s Law. The pre–post study consists of a total of 550 male sex offenders released during the years 1990 and 2000, of which 250 offenders were released during 1990 and 1994 (i.e., the pre‐Megan’s Law group) and 300 offenders were released between 1995 and 2000 (i.e., the post‐Megan’s Law group). Offenders were released from a general population setting and a sex offender specific treatment facility. The main variables of concern include: (1) recidivism levels, (2) days to first re‐arrest, and (3) level of harm (i.e., number of sex offenses, violent offenses, and number of child victims). Statistical findings from chi‐square and survival analysis testing indicate significant group differences on levels of general recidivism; however, no significant differences were identified on measures of sex offense recidivism. Implications of these findings on sex offender specific policies are discussed.     

Am I Respected or Not?: Inclusion and Reputation as Issues in Group Membership

Six studies examined why and when respect vs. disrespect influences people’s emotions, self-worth, and behavior. Following relational models of justice, we argued that people use groups to derive information about the social self and as such value respect information because it indicates (a) whether or not they are accepted, and (b) how their status within the group is evaluated. These two identity concerns were operationalized by means of reinforcing people’s desire to belong (i.e., the identity concern of acceptance) and concern for reputation (i.e., the identity concern of one’s status evaluation). In line with predictions, the first three studies demonstrated that respect matters only among those whose concerns to belong are made salient. Studies 4–6 further showed that respect only influenced reactions among those who have strong concerns for reputation. It is concluded that respect communicates information relevant to people’s identity concerns—i.e., inclusion and reputation.