Indigenous Parties and Democracy in Latin America

In recent years, important indigenous parties have emerged for the first time in Latin American history. Although some analysts view this development with trepidation, this essay argues that the indigenous parties in Latin America are unlikely to exacerbate ethnic conflict or create the kinds of problems that have been associated with some ethnic parties in other regions. To the contrary, the emergence of major indigenous parties in Latin America may actually help deepen democracy in the region. These parties will certainly improve the representativeness of the party system in the countries where they arise. They should also increase political participation and reduce party system fragmentation and electoral volatility in indigenous areas. They may even increase the acceptance of democracy and reduce political violence in countries with large indigenous populations.     

Democracy Without Parties? Political Parties and Regime Change in Fujimori's Peru

Political parties are critical to Latin American democracy. This was demonstrated in Peru, where an atomized, candidate-centered party system developed after Alberto Fujimori's 1992 presidential self-coup. Party system decomposition weakened the democratic opposition against an increasingly authoritarian regime. Since the regime collapsed in 2000, prospects for party rebuilding have been mixed. Structural changes, such as the growth of the informal sector and the spread of mass media technologies, have weakened politicians' incentive to build parties. Although these changes did not cause the collapse of the party system, they may inhibit its reconstruction.     

泰国华人政治认同的转变--动因分析

在东南亚国家中,泰国华人是较早融入当地主流社会、较早完成了对居住国政治认同的转变、较早参与当地政治生活的族群,而这一切都与泰国宽松的政治、经济、文化环境,以及长期以来泰国政府对华人实行的温和同化政策不无因果关系的.本文主要从政治、经济、文化三个方面加以分析论述.     

泰国华人政治生活的变迁

同东南亚其他国家相比 ,泰国华人同化较早且与当地融合得较为彻底 ,他们很早就参与了当地的政治生活。泰国华人政治生活也相对简单 ,远没有东南亚其他国家那么复杂 ,其参政历程虽经历了波折 ,但总体而言较为顺利。     

Electoral Reform, Institutional Change, and Party Adaptation in Uruguay

Uruguay's stable, institutionalized party system has undergone substantial changes in recent years, both from the increasing electoral strength of the left and from changes made to the electoral system in 1996. Analyzing the debut of that new system in the 1999 national and 2000 municipal elections, this article concludes that Uruguay is moving from what was a fairly evenly divided three-party system to one in which the longstanding traditional parties will confront, as a bloc, the stronger left. The electoral analysis shows that the bloc dynamic took over whenever elections were close between the left and one of the traditional parties.     

Political Change in America and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance

This article examines the domestic political dynamics behind US president Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to trade and foreign policy, to understand better how long this strain of American economic nationalism might last and what it means for Japan’s national security strategy. The political base for Trump’s trade protectionism and apparent indifference to allies has roots stretching back into American history, but this movement has strengthened in recent years due to a combination of growing economic inequality in the United States, demographic changes, and the impact of fast-paced technology development and economic globalization. These political trends are likely to persist beyond Trump’s presidency, although some potential negative effects on Japan and the US-Japan alliance in the medium-to-longer term can be mitigated by Japan’s proactive foreign policy and other steps. The alliance still offers a great deal of value to both countries—now and into the future—but Japan should consider a slightly larger global leadership role in concert with others, even as the allies work to enhance their continued cooperation on shared interests.     

Strong Societies, Wed Parties: Regime Change in Cuba and Venzula in the 1950s and Today

The literature on the origins of democratic institutions is split between bottom‐up and top‐down approaches. The former emphasize societal factors that press for democracy; the latter, rules and institutions that shape elites' incentives. Can these approaches be reconciled? This article proposes competitive political parties, more so than degrees of modernization and associationalism, as the link between the two. Competitive political parties enhance society's bargaining power with the state and show dominant elites that liberalization is in their best interest; the parties are thus effective conduits of democracy. In the context of party deficit, the prospects for democratization or redemocratization are slim. This is illustrated by comparing Cuba and Venezuela in the 1950s and 1330s.     

美国的族裔游说与移民爱国主义——以阿裔美国人的游说为例

冷战结束后,族裔游说在美国政治中的影响力日益上升;这一趋势将因奥巴马当选而得到强化.美国学术界对族裔游说的观念可分为积极和消极两派,消极派占据上风.消极派认为族裔游说有损美国国家利益,质疑为其母国利益游说的族裔的爱国主义.因此,在不同处境下的族裔游说团体要么选择消极游说--处境不利时首先致力于证明自身的爱国主义,要么选择积极游说--无须担忧爱国主义被民族主义化的风险时正面促进其母国国家利益.阿裔美国人游说的发展过程就是经历了消极游说和积极游说两个阶段的一个典型.     

Dominant Party Adaptation to the Catch-All Model: a Comparison of Former Dominant Parties in Japan and South Korea

In the process of democratisation, it is expected that a former dominant party, at least one which abides by the rules of electoral contestation, will transition into a “catch-all” party. A catch-all party aims to attract the votes of all social cleavages and classes of voters outside what would be considered their traditional voter base. As part of the wider debate about democratisation in East Asia, this paper examines how two of East Asia’s liberal democracies—Japan and South Korea, the LDP and GNP/Saenuri, respectively, have adapted to electoral defeat and in what ways they have transitioned into catch-all parties in the Kircheimer mould. This paper finds that while intra-party reforms which could fit a catch-all model have yet to be institutionalised, data from the Comparative Manifesto Database shows that there has been a significant change in which policies both parties promote and that these are designed to appeal to a broad base of voters.     

拉美和东亚的汇率制度比较

1994年的墨西哥金融危机和1997年的东亚金融危机充分说明,汇率的重要性越来越明显.本文总结了90年代以前拉美和东亚主要国家汇率制度演化的特点,简要分析了90年代一些东亚国家在汇率管理方面的失误,并探讨了可供发展中国家选择的浮动汇率制、固定汇率制和盯住汇率制的利弊.此外,本文还论述了一些拉美和东亚国家实施货币局汇率制度和美元化的可行性.     

从危害国家安全到彻底淡化--印尼对中国外交政策中华人问题因素的转变(1965-1998)

1955年万隆会议之后 ,印尼与中国的关系飞跃发展 ,以 1956年 9月 30日苏加诺总统前往北京进行首次国事访问达到最高点。 196 5年印尼在马来西亚成为联合国安理会非常任理事国之后 ,宣布退出联合国。此举也增加了印尼在国际舞台上的外交孤立。但是 ,雅加达与北京之间的联盟却因此而确定[1] 。苏加诺在总统任期内共三次访问中国 ,而中国国家主席刘少奇、总理周恩来都曾到印尼访问。 196 3年由中国提供资助的新兴力量运动会在雅加达举行 ,大约有 51个国家参加。这是两国共同充分开拓时局的具体合作之一[2 ] 。在 196 5年 8月 17日的国庆节演说…