东亚货币合作与人民币核心货币地位探析

全球化背景下的区域经济合作快速发展,欧元的产生和美元区的快速成长对区域经济理论的正确性做出了验证。东亚地区经贸关系发展迅速,而区域货币合作发展却相对迟缓。本文对东亚货币合作的必要性和可行性进行了分析,认为人民币在东亚货币合作中应该发挥核心货币的作用,并对其可行性进行了深入的分析和论证。     

货币的性质与人民币的未来选择——兼论亚洲货币合作

不同于主流经济学从市场的角度看待货币,认为货币是交易媒介,其对真实经济的影响是中性的观点,本文从货币作为计价单位的属性出发,指出货币具有国家和权力的特征,它反映建立在国家权威基础上的社会信用关系.货币是真实经济中的一个重要变量.国际货币体系并非一个中性的体系.货币是国家财富的直接创遣者.拥有国际货币地位不仅能为货币发行国带来现实的铸币税和金融服务收入,更为重要的是,它使货币发行国享有影响别国的货币政策的主动权,并得以主导国际上货币和大宗商品的定价权,从而长期影响别国的经济发展.此外,拥有国际货币地位还为货币发行国的金融产品,金融机构和金融市场的发展带来便利,从而有利于维护和巩固一个倾向于货币发行国利益的国际金融体系.大国谋求不断扩大本国的货币漉通域,并竭力排斥别的国家竞争和取代自己的位置.国际体系中的大国关系史同时也是一部货币主权的斗争和变迁史.本文认为,中国迫切需要建立起人民币在国际货币体系中的国际地位,以维护本国的政治经济利益.就目前来看,中国尚不具备走人民币直接国际化的条件,而选择符合亚洲共同利益的区域货币合作路线更具有现实意义.     

人民币崛起的国际制度基础

2009年,人民币开启国际化进程,拉开了人民币崛起为一种国际主要货币的序幕,这被认为是21世纪继欧元诞生之后最重要的国际货币事件。但是,国际货币地位的形成不仅仅是市场扩张的自然产物,还需要坚实的国际政治基础,这意味着人民币的崛起不仅仅是一个经济事件,也是一个政治和外交事件。国际货币的政治基础主要包括支持该种货币国际地位的货币伙伴网络和国际(区域/全球)货币制度两方面的内容。2009年以来,中国政府在通过国内制度改革以释放人民币走向海外的市场活力的同时,也在通过积极有为的货币外交为人民币崛起夯实政治基础。具体到与货币相关的国际制度领域,中国的货币外交主要体现在两个方面:一是努力推动既有的全球性制度改革(简称"改制"),二是积极进行大规模的区域性制度建设(简称"建制")。由于来自在位货币霸权国美国的强力阻扰,既有全球性制度改革进展十分困难。中国在区域制度建设上取得了一些进展,分别是金砖机制下的货币合作、"10+3"框架下的东亚货币合作和上合组织框架下的货币合作,它们将共同为人民币崛起提供有效的区域制度保障。不仅如此,中国的"改制"和"建制"努力还为未来的国际体系预示了一个国际制度竞争的格局。     

“人民币区”初现与中国培育区域性货币依赖的可能性分析

通过对亚洲金融危机后人民币在东亚货币篮子中的权重估算发现,"人民币区"正在东亚区域内日益显现。文章认为,"人民币区"的出现源自中国在区域内所构建的贸易往来和产业资本投资网络,以及中国因综合国力提高所增强的地缘辐射能力,而非金融危机后的暂时性存在。因此,虽然中国在东亚地区尚不具有货币操纵的权力,但可以通过贸易分工、资本投资网络以及金融外交来巩固并强化周边国家和地区对人民币的货币依赖,以弱化美元"超级特权"对东亚地区经济平稳运行和货币政策自主性所施加的压力。     

解锁、链接与捆绑:美元在东南亚的国际化进程CSSCI

二战后,东南亚逐渐成为美国的亚欧地缘战略要地。受传统货币关系网络影响,战后美元在东南亚的国际化水平较低,推动美元在东南亚的使用遂成为美国地区战略的重点之一。战后初期,美国稳步解锁欧洲国家对东南亚的经济与政治控制,为美元的渗透与使用创造条件。从20世纪60年代开始,美国利用日本和新加坡链接东南亚,降低冷战和越南战争的影响,加速美元货币关系网络的形成。20世纪80年代后,美国以自身的调整诱导东南亚的发展转型,采取措施削弱日本和日元的影响,利用美元货币关系网络捆绑东南亚的发展与未来,完成美元在东南亚的国际化,使美元成为最有影响力的国际货币以及影响区域经济发展的重要变量。东南亚是人民币国际化的重要目标区域,中国要从美元国际化进程中学习经验并汲取教训,采取有效措施推进人民币国际化。     

东亚货币合作与中国的角色分析

如何加快东亚货币合作的进程一直是理论界积极研究的课题.亚洲金融危机直接催生了东亚货币合作,建立亚洲货币基金是应对危机的直接反应,"10 3"模式和"清迈协议"是亚洲货币基金思想的具体实践,亚元则是东亚货币合作的最高理想,但目前正在展开的货币合作方案对危机援救的实际效果有限,且受到诸多因素制约.因此,进一步完善清迈货币互换体制、建立区域内汇率稳定机制、发展亚洲债券市场和最终建立东亚共同货币区等分阶段渐进模式是今后东亚货币合作的最好选择.作为地区性大国,中国应该积极参与东亚货币合作进程并发挥主导作用.     

中日东亚货币合作——国际关系视角的分析

当今国际政治经济格局与美元霸权是东亚货币合作的大背景,在这一背景下,东亚货币合作有着更深刻的国际利益分配的潜在内涵,而不只是单纯的区域货币合作问题.美、日、中三方的利益关切共同推动和影响着东亚货币合作的进程.日元和人民币都不具备独立作为东亚主导货币的条件,东亚各国或地区的经济发展水平差异较大,货币合作的政治基础比较薄弱等现实条件,促使合作成为中日双方的最佳选择,其中,中日双方政治互信的改善对东亚货币合作尤为重要.     

编者的话

正本期侧重讨论中国崛起进程中政治与经济因素的互动,就人民币国际化、"一带一路"、TPP、公共产品供给等国际政治经济学话题进行了深入探讨。人民币国际化是中国崛起在经济领域的体现和努力方向。然而,国际货币地位的形成不仅是市场扩张的自然产物。李巍重点研究了自2009年以来中国政府如何通过货币外交,夯实人民币崛起的国际制度基础,并将中国在国际制度领域的努力概括为"改制"与"建制"两个方面,并在此基础上讨论了未来     

货币的政治逻辑与国际货币体系的演变

货币不仅仅只是市场交易的媒介,更是一种权力,它不仅对社会财富具有分配效应,同时也能够为货币发行者直接带来财富,货币从产生到被普遍接受与国家权力密不可分,这就是货币的政治逻辑。货币的权力特征使得国际货币体系的演变往往不能遵循以效率为原则的市场逻辑,而是充满着国家间的博弈和斗争。美元在崛起的过程中并不仅仅依赖自身的市场竞争力,也是美国政府积极运作的结果。美元所面临的挑战不仅在于欧元和人民币的竞争,更在于美国的传统盟友欧盟国家和日本能否在今后一如既往地支持美元,以及美国能否获得以中国、俄罗斯、巴西和印度等国家为代表的新兴经济体在货币问题上的合作。     

德国、法国与中国货币合作过程与动因的比较分析

在人民币国际化背景下,与中国建立货币合作可以让各国政府、央行分享人民币国际化的红利。欧元区两大主要成员德国、法国几乎在同一时期与中国建立起合作安排,然而两者的建立过程却从合作主导者、央行作用、谈判框架和后续互动这四个方面差异明显。德中货币合作特点是地方政府主导、联邦政府背书和德国央行支持与最终的市场化导向,法中货币合作过程体现了中央政府主导、法国央行打先锋与国家利益优先性的特点。通过对两国政治体制、政治传统、经济利益与央行演变四个方面的比较,本文探讨了德国、法国与中国建立货币合作的动因与过程差异。     

Contextualising NEPAD: regionalism,plurilateralism and multilateralism

There is a dearth of literature on the nature and scope of the African Union's New Partnership for Africa's Development (AU/NEPAD) in relation to trends in the international trade system. Available literature concentrates on the neoliberal character of the programme and views it as exposing the uncompetitive African economies to the hostile international economic environment. Contrary to this view, this article argues that AU/NEPAD, because of its three-part approach within contemporary trade trends, could be a viable strategy to promote economic development in the continent. Firstly, AU/NEPAD promotes reformed developmental regionalism, since it combines collective self-reliance of member states with ‘strategic linking’ into the global market. Secondly, it connects strategic linking to new partnerships through plurilateralism, as depicted by the G8 Africa Action Plan. Finally, AU/NEPAD promotes multilateralism through engagements with the World Trade Organisation, the UN and the World Bank.     

Kuwait's economy,the economic status of the GCC in general and bilateral relations between the GCC and SADC

Focusing more on South Africa's international cultural‐political‐economic strengths and weaknesses than on current domestic affairs, as it moves away from apartheid, this article examines the new South Africa's chances for ascent (development) or descent (underdevelopment) within the world system. Politically, the State will remain weak by international standards. Economically, it is in decline, largely because it is uncompetitive internationally; and these negative trends well pre‐date the unrest and sanctions of the mid‐1980s. It is concluded that the new South Africa will be fortunate to maintain its present position in the medium‐term.     

Between Interest and Responsibility: Assessing China's Foreign Policy and Burgeoning Global Role

Abstract

This article is situated within the contemporary debates about the nature and purpose of China's growing power. It uses the concepts of “national interest” and “international responsibility” as a framework of analysis for Chinese foreign policy, and develops a three-dimensional typology to conceptualize their relationship (antagonistic; instrumental; mutually constitutive). This article adopts two main arguments. First, a stronger China is one gravitating toward greater notions of international responsibility, albeit instrumentally. Second, observable trends in China's evolving worldview indicate, however, that it is conceiving its national interests more broadly, embracing further socialization and greater normative commitments to international society. One may therefore view China's burgeoning global role as a great power with a degree of “cautious optimism.”     

Japanese foreign policy: Inaction and reaction

Japan's tendency to simply react to international trends rather than to formulate its own policies is as prevalent today as during the Meiji period when the country was trying to catch up to the West, says Gerald Curtis, professor of political science at Columbia University. When international trends are murky, such as before World War II, this tendency can easily lead to disaster, Curtis says. Japan must break with the past and define its international role in the post‐Cold War era, Curtis argues, but the public debate required to achieve this is unlikely until Japan's domestic politics become more sharply defined.     

The human development puzzle in Kerala

Participatory approaches to development have been implemented increasingly. One form is the World Bank's community-driven development (CDD) programme. Participation has, also, become increasingly securitised since 2001. One instance of these trends was the Kapit-Bisig Laban sa Kahirapan (KALAHI) project in the Philippines. This paper examines the implementation of CDD and the problems of its securitisation, using the Philippines as a case study. A composite conceptual framework is advanced that draws upon the international analyses of development. Adapting the concepts of securitisation and de-politicisation, it argues that a new hegemonic-development framework has appeared: the Securitised-Washington consensus. The analysis assesses these trends through the examples of KALAHI and Philippine politics and economics. It suggests that securitised CDD projects result in token efforts at political reform and poverty alleviation that often are contradicted by counter-trends towards development decline and militarisation. Unless these deep-rooted problems are confronted, localised participation is likely to remain ineffectual.     

Contending paradigms of Japan’s international role: Elite views of the Persian Gluf crisis

Japan’s dramatic ascent to the status of economic superpower raises significant questions about how it will wield the broader global influence ordinarily conferred by wealth. Its emergence as an economic leader coincides with the demise of the cold war. Taken together, these trends alter the basis of the long-standing U.S.-Japan relationship. While the security partnership is likely to continue as a force for regional stability in the post-cold war environment, it is simply natural that a prosperous, self-confident Japan will begin to assert an independent voice in international affairs. In this study the author examines Japan’s recent debate over its policy in the Persian Gulf crisis. Particular attention is given to five competing schools of thought that shaped the national debate among Japanese opinion leaders. Although Japan’s response to the Gulf crisis was marked by a series of false starts and confusion, it is likely that a new foreign policy paradigm will eventually emerge from the ongoing debate among the contending schools of thought identified by the author.     

A New Asian Order and the Role of Japan

China is changing the international order in East Asia. It is not only a matter of a power transition, but also a matter of a change in the international system. Chinese people tend to see the world order in hierarchical terms as they did for centuries; nationalism is used as a tool of national integration; and government control of the military is weakening. These are the factors behind the rise of China. If these trends continue, a hierarchical order with China as hegemon might be established in East Asia. It seems as if we are returning to the period before the nineteenth century when China led the world. However, the international order in the twenty-first century has to be based upon such principles as the rule of law, peaceful solution of conflict, democracy, and human rights. In order to establish such an order, Japan and other countries that have committed to those values should unite firmly. China also would benefit very much from that order in the long run.     

Are the BRICS reformers,revolutionaries, or counter-revolutionaries?

This article argues that the five-nation BRICS group has played a significant role in pressing for reforms in the Western-dominated global order, as well as mounting some revolutionary (and as yet unresolved) challenges to that order. However, it also maintains that there is another (underestimated) aspect to the BRICS' role, viz, their conservative or counter-revolutionary challenges to liberal trends towards democracy, human rights and the progressive evolution of international law. It then discusses how ‘the West’ has responded to these pressures from the BRICS, and other rising powers, and points to uncertainties raised by the recent growth of ‘populist’ pressures within the West itself against aspects of the liberal economic, political and cultural order.     

Three major twentieth century trends and Japan's future role

Three trends—nationalism, industrialization, and egalitarianism—have been predominant in the twentieth century, according to Seizaburo Sato, professor of political science at Saitama University and research director at IIPS. Each of these trends has created its own unique problems that demand new solutions, Sato explains. In this new global environment Japan must overcome the trauma of World War II, argues Sato, and play an active international role that contributes economically, culturally, and even militarily to the strengthening and expansion of the security community and the promotion of sustainable industrialization.