Iraq March–April 2003: Outcomes,a Division of Views - and an Abuse of Intelligence?

Three things happened in Iraq in March/April 2003 – an invasion, a military campaign and a start on the reconstruction of that country. In making the case for these the UK and US governments drew ‘with exceptional frankness’ on the reports of their intelligence agencies. In using and, it maybe, abusing such material the governments laid themselves open to charges of deception in arguing the case for war. All of this brought out serious differences of view between the United States and others. Such differences are argued by Robert Kagan in his book Paradise & Power: America and Europe in the New World Order as being fundamental and permanent, with the American view to prevail. This article sets out why the author believes that the American view is, at important points, fallacious.     

WMD: The Career of a Concept

The danger posed by “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) was the Bush administration's chief justification for invading Iraq. Amid the din of the chorus that ceaselessly repeated this phrase in 2002–2003, hardly anyone stopped to ask: what is “WMD” anyway? Is it not a mutable social construct rather than a timeless, self-evident concept? Guided by Nietzsche's view of the truth as a “mobile army of metaphors [and] metonyms… which have been enhanced, transposed, and embellished poetically and rhetorically,” we present a history of the metonym WMD. We describe how it was coined by the Archbishop of Canterbury in 1937, and subsequently how its meaning was “transposed” and “enhanced” throughout Cold War arms negotiations, in the aftermath of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and in US domestic law. We also discuss how, in the run-up to the Iraq war, “WMD” did not merely describe an Iraqi threat; it was rather “embellished poetically and rhetorically” in ways that produced and inflated the threat.     

Priming time for Blair? Media priming, Iraq, and leadership evaluations in Britain

Priming is often mentioned in studies of media effects in Britain, yet empirical tests of its extent and nature are lacking; most evidence of priming effects is from the United States. Moreover, research on British elections concludes that the media have little impact on the public’s perceptions of issues, including in the 2005 election. In this paper we argue that priming by the British media has been misconceived and thus not studied adequately. We demonstrate that the issue of the war in Iraq was primed by media coverage in 2005, both as a consequence of the volume of coverage of the issue and its tone. The influence of Iraq was not just long-term, via its impact on confidence in the Labour government or Tony Blair’s reputation, but was also affected by media coverage during the campaign. We also demonstrate that the media’s coverage of Iraq in 2005 influenced voters’ evaluations of Blair by polarizing consumers of the same news. Finally, we find slightly more of an impact of the tone of coverage of Iraq in 2005 but it is moderated by the editorial stance of the newspaper—the editorial stance of British newspapers still seems to matter, suggesting that the dealignment of the British press has not eliminated the influence of reading a newspaper that endorses a party, no matter how qualified that endorsement may be.     

Nothing to Hide,Nowhere to Run,or Nothing to Lose: Candidate Position-Taking in Congressional Elections

If candidates do not state clear issue positions, then voters cannot anticipate how the candidates will govern if elected nor hold candidates accountable for breaking campaign pledges. Yet, previous research argues electoral incentives lead candidates to avoid discussing the key issues of the day. Even though silence on issues is the modal campaign strategy, this paper argues that candidates systematically make clear issue statements on occasion. We identify three variables that predict whether a candidate will address an issue and the clarity of the candidate’s stance on that issue: (i) the public salience of an issue; (ii) ideological congruence between candidate and district; and (iii) candidate quality. This argument is tested using data on candidate position-taking regarding the Iraq War and gay marriage collected from the campaign websites of U.S. House candidates in 2006 and 2008.     

Preemptive strikes and the war on Iraq: a critique of Bush administration unilateralism and militarism

Bush administration foreign policy has exhibited a marked unilateralism and militarism in which US military power is used to advance US interests and geopolitical hegemony. The policy was first evident in the Afghanistan intervention following the September 11, 2001 terror attacks, and informed the 2003 war against Iraq. In From 9/11 to Terror War, I sketched out the genesis and origins of Bush administration foreign policy and its application in Afghanistan and the build‐up to the Iraq war. In this study, I update and develop my critique of the Bush doctrine of preemptive strikes and its application in the 2003 Iraq invasion, concluding with a critique of unilateralism and militarism, and defense of multilateral and global solutions to problems such as terrorism, so‐called “weapons of mass destruction,” and “rogue regimes.”     

The National Interest and the Politics of Threat Exaggeration: The Blair Government's Case for War against Iraq

During the 2005 General Election the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, suggested that the invasion of Iraq was in 'the national interest'. Whether he knew it or not, this phrase has often referred to controversial decisions taken by governments, away from scrutiny and subject to criticism when made public, but which they believe are in the best interests of the British state.
The article summarises the consequences of the invasion in terms of the subsequent criticism and official inquiries before addressing the question of what is the national interest. The article then considers what exactly was the threat, and whether or not it was exaggerated, and what evidence is now emerging to indicate that the decision to invade was taken 'in the national interest'. It concludes that there was a decision to support the USA and that the threat was exaggerated to justify this decision.     

The Influence of Foreign Voices on U.S. Public Opinion

Public opinion in the lead‐up to the 2003 Iraq War presents a puzzle. Despite the fact that domestic political elites publicly voiced little opposition to the invasion, large numbers of Americans remained opposed to military action throughout the pre‐war period, in contrast to the predictions of existing theory. We argue that some rank‐and‐file Democrats and independents expressed opposition because of the widely reported antiwar positions staked out by foreign, not domestic, elites. Merging a large‐scale content analysis of news coverage with public opinion surveys from August 2002 through March 2003, we show that Democrats and independents—especially those with high levels of political awareness—responded to dissenting arguments articulated in the mass media by foreign officials. Our results, which constitute the first empirical demonstration of foreign elite communication effects on U.S. public opinion, show that scholars must account for the role played by non‐U.S. officials in prominent foreign policy debates.     

The Implications of Elections for Federalism in Iraq: Toward a Five-Region Model

For most observers, Iraq's recent elections were an importantfirst step on the road to democratic normalcy. However, threerelated outcomes—the political marginalization of SunniArabs, the electoral gains made by Shi'a religious parties,and the triumphant performance of the Kurds—render thetask of crafting Iraq's permanent constitution significantlymore problematic. In this paper, we examine the implicationsof these election results for the design of Iraq's federal system.Our focus is on the character of the subunits in any futuresystem, specifically on whether Iraq should adopt a form ofterritorial federalism based on the country's existing eighteenprovinces (as most scholars argue) or whether a form of ethnic,or "plurinational," federalism based on five regions would bebetter able to address the very significant problems createdby the election results. After assessing the relative meritsof the various proposals for a federal Iraq, we conclude thata system based on five broad regions, though not ideal, is theleast bad of the options available.     

Objective intelligence or plausible denial: An open source review of intelligence method and process since 9/11

Since 9/11 there have been a series of reports criticizing the American Intelligence Community for its lack of foresight and inaccurate intelligence prior to the Iraq invasion of 2003. It is argued here that this is not a new phenomenon, but a replay of other periods of self-doubt and introspection within the Intelligence Community. The criticism of organizational structures and individuals – however relevant that may be – does not address the real, and enduring, problem with US intelligence-gathering bodies. The very process of intelligence theory, definition and practice needs to be fundamentally reviewed. Eschewing the dogmatism that has hindered intelligence reform, this article suggests three methods as a starting point for a new approach.     

The selling of the President 2004: a marketing perspective

• George W. Bush won the 2004 US Presidential election despite the facts of one thousand people losing their life in the Iraq war, the highest rate of increase in unemployment in 70 years and a vitriolic propaganda campaign (Michael Moore, etc.) against him. This case study seeks to explain the success through the prism of marketing theory and conceptual structures, that is, that the Bush team had a superior communications strategy and, within those parameters, superior marketing elements. Thus we seek to surface and integrate a number of causal explanations for his victory that arose from a political marketing orientation, specifically the offer of a ‘coherent narrative’; the conduct of a ‘permanent campaign’; more effective negative advertising (especially by pro‐Bush 527 groups), targeting and packaging; the success of the late campaign ‘big tent’ ploy. None of this however seeks to exclude the more purely political explanations for his success (located in such phenomena as the mobilization of the ‘Christian Right’ and the continuity to the aura attached to the ‘911 President’); nor is the application of marketing thought to political contexts treated uncritically.
• A further aim is to introduce political marketing modes of analysis to a political science audience—not to present them as a new ‘correctness’, for they are certainly vulnerable to challenge, but rather to precipitate more of an intellectual exchange between these two disciplines.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Media on Charitable Giving and Volunteering: Evidence from the “Give Five” Campaign

Fundraising campaigns advertised via mass media are common. To what extent such campaigns affect charitable behavior is mostly unknown, however. Using giving and volunteering surveys conducted biennially from 1988 to 1996, I investigate the effect of a national fundraising campaign, “Give Five,” on charitable giving and volunteering patterns. The widely advertised Give Five campaign was aimed to encourage people to give 5 percent of their income and volunteer 5 hours a week. After controlling for selection into being informed about the Give Five, I find that people who were informed about the campaign increased their weekly volunteering activity on average by almost half an hour, but their giving behavior was not significantly affected. I discuss the policy implications associated with this result and argue that although the Give Five campaign did not achieve its goal, its impact on volunteering was considerable. © 2012 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The Daily Mail and the Stephen Lawrence Murder

The Daily Mail's coverage of the 1993 race murder of Stephen Lawrence has been held up as an example of newspaper journalism at its best. It is a cause of pride to the paper, which has asserted that its 1997 front page accusing five men of the murder, and the comment and reporting that followed, brought about significant social and policy changes and helped achieve justice. The coverage has also been cited by the paper to rebut critics who accuse it of intolerance. Examined in detail here and set in their context, the paper's claims about its role in the case prove to be either exaggerated or not supported by evidence. The Mail's engagement in the Lawrence case involved a famous instance of editorial brilliance, but insofar as its campaign brought about or contributed to changes, they were not usually changes sought by the paper and they were sometimes contrary to its aims.     

Promoting eco manufacturing: an Australian case

• This paper analyses the communication campaign of a small industry plant, the Fuji Xerox Eco Manufacturing Center in Sydney, Australia. Disproportionably to its size, it has become a national and world leader in the push for waste free, sustainable manufacturing. The rarity of the case—a resource‐poor for‐profit organization taking the role of an influential advocate—helps to highlight the centrality of public relations in the promotional mix. I examine ‘remanufacturing’ not as a one‐off technical innovation, but as prolonged internal and external communication campaign. I also stress on the public character of internal communication, where public relations is instrumental from the start. I draft and discuss an alternative model of integrated marketing communications for small businesses and nonprofits. Integration happens here on personnel rather than organizational (interdepartmental) level. The more such organizations turn towards external causes and multiple publics—as in this case of industrial advocacy and public affairs—the more likely public relations transforms from a component into the organizing principle of the communication strategy.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Policy Lessons from Iraq on Managing Uncertainty in Intelligence Assessment: Why the Strategic/Tactical Distinction Matters

This paper focuses on how pre-existing policy priorities and goals among policy elites in the US, UK, and Australia encouraged the blurring of strategic and tactical intelligence assessment as a mechanism for legitimising the Iraq invasion. Through the selective use and interpretation of sometimes vague or unsubstantiated tactical and technical intelligence and the many uncertainties it contained, proponents of the war were able to undermine existing strategic assessments on Iraq by introducing a range of possible, but largely unsubstantiated, threat scenarios as justification for military action. The paper argues that in so far as intelligence reforms are needed, they should be focused primarily on the interface between analysis and policy making, and the issue of how policy makers interpret and understand the uncertainties that intelligence assessments necessarily contain.     

Understanding Campaign Strategy

SUMMARY

The role of professional political consultants in campaigns is not very well understood, at least from a theoretical perspective. As a result, we know very little about how campaign strategy is developed. This article is an attempt to think theoretically about how professional campaign operatives craft strategies for candidates. It begins with a review of previous research on consultants and campaign strategy. That work helps lay a foundation for a theory of professional campaign activity that focuses on the development of campaign strategy. I then turn to campaign professionals themselves. Based on interviews with numerous consultants and other campaign operatives, I identify common approaches to building strategy within campaigns. Finally, I explain the notion of ‘deliberate priming,’ a theoretical understanding of professionally run campaigns that emerges from the consultant interviews and previous scholarship in this field.     

Issue convergence or issue divergence in a political campaign?

In this article, a two-party contest where candidates allocate their campaign resources strategically between two salient issues is studied. The analysis aims to determine the circumstances under which there is issue convergence (both parties emphasizing the same issue) or issue divergence (different parties emphasizing different issues) during a political campaign. For this purpose, the concepts of a party’s absolute and comparative advantage are used. A party has an absolute advantage on an issue if a majority of voters prefer its position on this issue to that of its opponent. A party has a comparative advantage on an issue if the percentage of votes that it would obtain if voters cared only about that issue is larger than those that it would obtain if voters cared only about the other issue. It is shown here that issue convergence can occur only if one of the parties has an absolute advantage on both issues, but its comparative advantage is not too large. Otherwise, there will be issue divergence in the political campaign.     

Referendum Campaigns,Framing and Uncertainty

Research on campaign dynamics and voting behaviour in direct democracy suggests that referendum campaigns can be seen as processes of learning. This finding stems from two assumptions: (1) information has mediating effects – the more voters know about the issue at stake, the stronger the effect of issue preferences in their decision-making; (2) campaign volatility and framing effects are linked to weak campaigning and voters’ lack of information. The aim of this article is to suggest the limitations of this approach and discuss the effects of framing in referendum campaigning. It is argued that campaign volatility as well as framing effects are not always related to voter ignorance and information-weak campaigns but rather to qualitative shifts in the underlying value interpretation linked to referendum proposals. These shifts are possible no matter how well-informed voters are. The expectancy-value model, commonly used in psychological research, is used to make sense of framing effects in volatile as well as stable referendum campaigns.     

What the Intelligence Community Got Right About Iraq

Although widely criticized for inaccurate estimates of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction in 2002, the United States Intelligence Community was far more prescient about the likely consequences of a military campaign to remove Saddam Hussein. Intelligence assessments of the challenges likely to be faced by a post-war Iraq were widely disseminated within the Executive Branch and Congress and may have served to justify the Bush Administration's decision to undertake extensive reconstruction efforts rather than to turn power over at once to Iraqi leaders.     

Party identification and campaign dynamics

This paper considers the role of party identification in the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign, using data drawn mainly from a rolling cross section survey. Canadians exhibited party commitments remarkably like those we have come to expect for U.S. respondents. These commitments shaped respondents' reaction to the events of the campaign: Issue positions lined up with party identification, as did perceptions of the one leader rehabilitated by the campaign. But the campaign also cut through party groups. Such a mixture of reinforcement and displacement might well typify campaigns in Canada and elsewhere. The paper concludes by arguing that academic observers in the United States should take campaigns more seriously than they have to date and that they should consider adopting some of the measurement and analysis strategies of the 1988 Canadian study.Data in this paper are drawn from the 1988 Canadian Election Study, for which the author is the principal investigator. Coinvestigators are André Blais, Henry E. Brady, and Jean Crête. Support for the study was supplied by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Fieldwork was carried out by the Institute for Social Research, York University, under the direction of David Northrup. Henry Brady was, as usual, an invaluable sounding board and source of advice. None of these individuals or institutions can be held responsible for analyses or interpretations in this paper.     

The undecided voters and the economy: Campaign heterogeneity in the 2005 British general election

Research and conventional wisdom suggest that undecided voters are especially prone to campaign persuasion. Little has been done, however, in the way of uncovering the decision pathways followed by these voters. In this paper we seek to assess the undecided voters’ alleged campaign susceptibility and, most importantly, to explore which campaign considerations inform their final voting decisions. Our central finding is that their behaviour is driven to a larger extent by economic performance and less by leadership or other valence evaluations. This finding has important implications for parties’ campaign strategies in an era where the ranks of undecided voters are steadily expanding from one election to the other.