The Alienated Frontier: Why the United States Can’t Get Osama bin Laden

Since the Russian-supplied Afghan army overthrew progressive President Daud in 1978, the nation has endured the long Soviet-Afghan war, the Taliban, and the arrival of U.S troops. These military actions have only heightened the historical alienation of the Pashtun tribes who overspread the long-contested border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. These are the people who are almost certainly sheltering Osama bin Laden. The Alienated Frontier is a centuries-old problem that must be solved if we are to win the war on terror, and solving it will require rebuilding the infrastructure, developing alternatives to poppy cultivation, and solving the “Pashtunistan” question. The capture or elimination of given individuals will achieve little if the conditions that allow radicals to thrive are not addressed     

Cheap Hawks, Cheap Doves, and the Pursuit of Strategy

The post-9/11 threats to American security require a complete revision of American national strategy. For too long, presidents have had to favor quick, cheap solutions to crises, unable to count on support from the “homebody” public for long, drawn-out conflicts. “Cheap hawks” among them have hoped that apocalyptic rhetoric will suffice when resources fall short; “cheap doves” hope that by ignoring the threat, it will go away. But with the war on terror, the revival of geopolitics, and ever-accelerating globalization, the U.S. tradition of bellicose rhetoric backed by underwhelming force is a recipe for failure. To effectively manage its threats, America needs a new catechism and to make sure its economic, energy, and military policies support this.     

Military frameworks: technological know-how and the legitimization of warfare

It is the elusive target of policymakers, ethicists and military strategists: the target of a ‘just war’. Since the advent of precision-guided munitions in the mid-1970s, commentators claimed that surgical-strike technology would advance the cause of jus in bello, ending the longstanding tension between effective military engagement and morality. Today, many policymakers accept that the ethical dilemmas that arise in the ‘fog of war’ can be negotiated by the technical precision of weaponry. This is, at best, only partially accurate. At worst, its misplaced optimism risks numbing the moral sense of strategists and, just as importantly, the sensibilities of the general populace. We argue that the development of precision guided munitions (PGM), stand-off weaponry and military robotics may force policymakers and strategists to experience new ethical tensions with an unprecedented sensitivity and may require them to make specific policy adjustments. In the move toward more quantitative approaches to political science and international affairs it is often forgotten that military ethics, and the ethics of military technologies, turn on the question of human judgment. We argue that the ethical implications of revolution in military affairs (RMA) are best investigated by way of a detailed discussion of the tenuous relationship between ethical decision-making and the workings of military technology.     

Stability and Change in U.S. Grand Strategy

Since the Global War on Terror (more recently termed the Long War) emerged as the centerpiece of U.S. grand strategy in 2001, the post–Cold War U.S. debate has narrowed significantly. Essentially three alternative strategies now compete for pride of place. Two are variants of a “primacy” strategy; one is a variant of “restraint,” sometimes termed “offshore balancing.” All three strategies take globalization as a given and as a positive development. None specifically connects U.S. military power to globalization. To the extent that globalization can be argued to have negative consequences, restraint offers a different remedy than either version of primacy. This article offers a brief characterization of globalization and speculates on its positive and negative results. The three grand strategies that remain visible in the U.S. public policy debate, and their suggested remedies, are then discussed. Finally, the U.S. military strengths and weaknesses are evaluated in order to gauge which strategy's remedies are most feasible.     

Financial Warfare

This paper brings together the key dimensions of financial warfare and places them in a larger policy framework. Its major conclusions are that financial warfare will be a much more important issue because of the astounding growth in international finance itself. In addition, financial warfare allows for more precise targeting than conventional economic warfare. Much like “precision strike” technology in arms, it gives more control over sanctions, but by no means perfect control. Finally, financial warfare's larger policy framework should draw on escalation and de-escalation theory because it is likely to be most effective when combined with other forms of pressure. This article does not “advocate” financial warfare. But it does argue that, since this type of conflict is emerging as an increasingly likely possibility, it needs to be thought through carefully. The worst outcome is to use it, without thinking about it, which, the author argues is where we are today.     

Human Rights and Foreign Policy: Wilson and the Greek Dictators, 1967-1970

The military coup of 21 April 1967 brought to power a repressive dictatorship in Greece. It proceeded to deprive Greeks of their human rights and civil liberties, outraged international public opinion and strained transatlantic relations during the Cold War. The “Greek case” culminated in the withdrawal of Greece from the Council of Europe and calls for its expulsion from NATO. This article will analyse the foreign policy considerations that determined British policy towards the Greek junta during 1967—such as Cold War realities, alliance dynamics, economic and commercial imperatives, regional instability in the Mediterranean and domestic pressures. It will look at how these factors coalesced into shaping British policy towards the Greek junta into one in which human rights had little bearing. The article will also consider the impact of the “Greek case” on the image and credibility of the Labour government of 1966-1970 and explain why vociferous anti-junta activities in London were to create such policy difficulties for the British government.     

Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response

The displacement of thousands of U.S. Gulf Coast residents in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina is emblematic of a human migration challenge that will likely become more severe in the years and decades ahead. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change will manifest in dramatic ways-extreme weather events, droughts, heat waves, increased cyclone (hurricane, typhoon) activity, sea level rise, etc.-and some of these effects may induce large scale human migration, both within and among countries. The increasing trend of environmental migrants is clashing with widespread anti-immigrant sentiment in both developed and developing countries around the world. Some countries are describing migration-and particularly unauthorized international migration-as a “security threat” and are turning to military forces to deter or manage the human flows, a trend that is likely to grow.     

Maritime Strategy in a Globalizing World

The future of globalization is the crucial issue facing naval planners in deciding future mission priorities and programs. Around the world, we are witnessing a slow shift from traditional “modern” preoccupations to less familiar “postmodern” ones. This is producing navies with different assumptions, sets of missions and acquisition programs. But how long this can continue and how deep it can go remains unclear. Tackling the naval implications of this issue depends on how planners read the future of globalization. Will it survive and prosper, or will it decay, forcing us to revert to older, more familiar patterns of naval behavior?     

From Commitment to Independence: Greek Foreign Policy and the Western Alliance

This paper examines the troubled relationship between Greece and the western alliance following the collapse of the military regime in Athens and the invasion of Cyprus. U.S. Congressional reports and the Greek parliamentary proceeding reveal the geopolitical significance of Greece to the western alliance and the frustration of the government in Athens regarding its foreign policy objectives. The Greeks might have questioned the benefits of being part of an alliance; however, it is evident that Greece's diplomatic isolation compelled her leadership to strengthen her links with the western camp. Hence, the present study assesses the attitude of the Greek government toward the Atlantic alliance and the US over the issues of NATO membership and the military installations in Greece and challenges the notion of “independence,” or else the need for detachment from the western alliance.     

The formation of in-formation by the US military: articulation and enactment of infomanic threat imaginaries on the immaterial battlefield of perception

This article explores the role of perception management as a doctrinal concept in the construction and deconstruction of threats. Threat construction involves a continual, reciprocal and constitutive relationship between the attribution of meaning and practice. It takes place in an environment changed by the multiple forces of the so-called information revolution, in which discursive links are forged between technology and victory as well as between scientific progress and military superiority. Through articulation and enactment, information and information technology are represented as both threatening and threatened in three dimensions: dependency on information as data, possible loss of information superiority, and loss of control over information as image. The enemy ‘Other’ in these threat constructions is everywhere and nowhere at the same time, and is seen as being greatly empowered by the same tools that empower the United States military establishment. But while, for many military actors, regaining control in the information domain through technological innovation seems more or less straightforward, the immaterial battlefield of perception proves harder to master. We purport that military strategists do not seem to fully grasp the illusionary nature of the belief that the information space is a thing to be shaped at will and without restrictions.     

History, War, and the Future

This article aims to delineate several issues raised by an historically based approach to understanding the present and the future. Beginning with a discussion of the profound impact that drastic changes have had on the international environment, the article then outlines what history suggests about human nature's influence on the course of future events; the future of war; the nature of governance and the United States. This essay does not attempt to provide answers, but rather suggests how policy makers, strategists, and military leaders might think through the complex political and cultural questions they need to be asking in the making of strategy. This is the essential first step for Americans. If they fail to ask the right questions, most answers will prove irrelevant to the challenges of the future.     

Gendering the millennium: globalising women

As the century has just changed for the Western calendar it should be borne in mind that for a vast part of the world the centuries are rolling at a different time and under different conditions. So, although we live and trade in a "global village", we are yet divided by time, space, and ideologies. The hope is that the 21st century will enable us to have a closer look at each other and that the global networks, the web sites, and the electronic mailing systems, will work as a bridge rather than as a new means of widening the gaps. This article is a plea for a better understanding of the different priorities and views that Islamist women have of themselves, of their place in history, and what it is that they need to fight for. It is also a call for the universality of sisterhood and a wish that the solidarity that was forged in the latter part of the 20th century will not be fragmented into smithereens in the new millennium.     

Democratization Without Decommunization in the Balkans

Since recent U.S.-led democratization projects having led in some cases to the election of Islamist movements, the old democratic theory that structural preconditions are key determinants of successful democratization has apparently been bolstered. This article examines the democratization experience in postcommunist Europe to assess which matters more, a society's “givens” favoring democracy or the institutional imports that a democracy-minded elite can borrow. In particular, it compares the experience of the Southeast Europe countries, which presented poor prerequisites for successful democratization and yet in at least two cases (Romania and Bulgaria) are far along on the path to democratization to the experience of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union as a whole.     

Russia-Georgia Conflict and Beyond

Yet another Post 9/11 historical event indicating a significant turning point in the Post-Cold War era, Russia-Georgia conflict represents a remarkable change in the international strategy of a resurgent Russia. It also signifies that former Soviet republics are still groping for a new identity and that a new round of realignment will persist in the vast Eurasia region. The conflict reveals declining U.S. global control, flawed European integration, and NATO embarrassment. To a certain extent, it exposes chaos brought about by international nonpolarity and world governance vacuum. It also highlights what serious consequences can a double standard inflict on the principles of international law. A reasonable arrangement for global security and economic growth is therefore challenging the resolve and wisdom of international strategists. Actually fierce geopolitical rivalry for energy resources is at work behind the Russia-Georgia conflict. This will further compound the international energy strategic environment.     

Confining conditions and breaking with the past: Historical legacies and political learning in transitions to democracy

Historical factors have more often been assumed than explored in democratization studies. Their importance has been acknowledged broadly in reference to matters of change and continuity, including the effects of predecessor dictatorships on transition trajectories. But historical factors can have varied and sometimes persistent influences on the democratization process as a whole. These influences therefore need examining in a systematic way that considers also their implications for democratic consolidation. Developing from Kirchheimer's thesis of ‘confining conditions and revolutionary breakthroughs’, the discussion turns to forms of interaction and the changing balance between past impacts and the dynamics and changing agenda of regime change. A three‐part approach is presented and applied: historical patterns and historical memory; historical legacies and ‘overcoming the past'; and, then, political ‘learning’ and its ability to look to the future. It is generally argued that focusing on ‘history’ opens up new avenues in the study of regime change.     

试析土耳其文官政治与军人政治的博弈——基于正义与发展党的执政实践

军人在土耳其历史文化中占据重要地位,曾经通过3次军事政变推翻民选政府,并通过还政文官政府使土耳其沿着凯末尔主义的方向前进。正义与发展党上台后,尽管文官政府和军方极力维持脆弱的平衡关系,但双方在权力争夺、加入欧盟、库尔德问题、复兴伊斯兰文化等方面分歧重重,争端不断。文官政治和军人政治博弈的结果说明了土耳其的军人政治逐渐让步于文官政治,军人干政在可预见的将来很难再发生;尽管世俗主义和伊斯兰主义之间的斗争仍很激烈,但已逐渐趋于理性;正义与发展党"保守的民主"模式获得民众的普遍认可,将为中东诸国提供一种民主发展的范式。     

Middleman in the Middle East: America's Flawed Approach to the ‘Peace Process’

President Bush professes optimism that an Arab-Israeli peace accord can be reached before he leaves office. Hamas, which presumably senses his urgency, has recently proposed a temporary truce with Israel in Gaza, with an option to extend it to the West Bank. This initiative is eerily reminiscent of Soviet behavior during the Cold War. Hamas essentially advocates a short-term period of peaceful coexistence to bide time while it strengthens its forces and lulls Israel into a false sense of security. If the United States accedes to this proposal or pressures Israel to do so, it will demonstrate once again the Cold War-style attitudes and perceptions that still characterize its approach to the “peace process.”     

War and the West

The outline of human history over the last two thousand years is framed by armed conflict. Many would like to overlook this simple historical reality, and the perilous consequences of ignoring military affairs. The advantage the West now enjoys is the product of several developments in political and social domains culminating in what can be called a Military Revolution. The creation of powerful states as the overarching social organization is an example of one such revolution, which supported a series of smaller innovations and changes in the way the West fought its wars. These smaller changes are “revolutions in military affairs.” These revolutions do not have to be tied to technology. Britain generated an advantage over France by creating a financial system which substantially altered its ability to sustain the conduct of war in the eighteenth century. History reveals the degree of political, social, economic and technological adaptation needed to maximize security and minimize the consequences of failure. The study of history is necessary to insure that we do not have to fight wars more often, or at far higher cost in human terms.     

Reform of the stability and growth pact: Looking beyond the commission's proposal

Policymakers, military strategists and academics all increasingly hail climate change as a security issue. This article revisits the (comparatively) long-standing “environmental security debate” and asks what lessons that earlier debate holds for the push towards making climate change a security issue. Two important claims are made. First, the emerging climate security debate is in many ways a re-run of the earlier dispute. It features many of the same proponents and many of the same disagreements. These disagreements concern, amongst other things, the nature of the threat, the referent object of security and the appropriate policy responses. Second, given its many different interpretations, from an environmentalist perspective, securitisation of the climate is not necessarily a positive development.     

History and Political Communication: An Introduction

This essay introduces a series of articles that explore the relation of history to political communication research. It is shown that as a field of study political communication has tended to ignore historical methods and sensibilities. This tendency is traced to the field's roots in social psychology, political science, and early mass communication research. However, although political communication tends to ignore historical research, it often depends upon implicit, unquestioned historical narratives. Thus, a more robust historical imagination is encouraged not only because it may produce more and better historical research, but also because it may assist in the development of tools for reflecting on the way political communication already deploys historical narratives.