The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: A review of the evidence and issues

This paper critically examines the role of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment in deterring criminal/deviant behavior. A thorough review of the perceptual deterrence literature from 1972–1986 is provided which indicates that cross-sectional correlations between perceptions of sanction threats and self-reported criminal/deviant behavior are moderately negative for diverse offenses, consistent with the deterrence doctrine. It is noted that rather than expressing the deterrent effect, these correlations probably indicate the effect of prior behavior on currently held perceptions—the experiential effect. In addition, since in many instances the reported correlations express simple bivariate relationships, the association may be spurious rather than causal. When researchers employing panel designs have estimated the deterrent relationship with variables in their correct temporal ordering and with more fully specified causal models, the moderate inverse effect for both perceived certainty and severity disappears. Although this would argue strongly for the continued utilization of longitudinal data and fully developed models of deterrence/social control, recent commentaries have raised questions about this line of perceptual deterrence research. These arguments are assessed and an agenda for future deterrence research suggested.     

Asymmetries of control: Surveillance,intrusion, and corporate theft of privacy

This paper deals with the asymmetry in relations between the individual actor and the corporation. In particular the paper focuses on the impact of corporate use of technologies of surveillance, ostensibly to reduce crime and to increase efficiency. A case is made that the use of these technologies to invade citizens' personal privacy in order to procure personal information without consent is a still-unrecognized form of corporate theft. Steps toward a remedy are suggested.     

The evolution of computer/privacy concerns: Access to government information held in the balance∗

Computers are a mainstay of most record systems at virtually all levels of government. The vast accumulation of personal information by governments has raised concerns about the erosion of personal privacy caused by the speed and efficiency of computers. For more than 30 years, realistic and sometimes exaggerated concerns about the proper role of computers in society have driven the public policy debate, resulting in a raft of legislation designed to protect the privacy of individuals about whom government keeps records.

But these computer /privacy concerns threaten legitimate public and media access to government records. The dangers to access were underscored by the Supreme Court in a holding that publicly available records regained privacy interests when drawn together in a centralized government computer. In other words, the form in which records were kept rather than their content could control access.

This article suggests that understanding the origin and context of the computer /privacy conflict will better prepare access proponents to deal with attempts to curtail legitimate access to government information because of privacy concerns.     

Personal budgets in adult social care: the fact and the fiction of the Care Act 2014

ABSTRACT

Personal budgets have been heavily promoted in government policy in England as a means of increasing the personalisation of public services, particularly in the field of adult social care. The Care Act 2014 for the first time creates a statutory requirement for personal budgets to be allocated to all individuals using state funded social care. This article examines how a particular rhetoric has developed in social care policy around personal budgets, which draws freely on the language of the disabled people’s movement and suggests that grassroots ideas are the central purpose for the introduction of personal budgets into policy. It considers whether the promises made in policy are embedded in the 2014 Act and finds that there is a mismatch between claims in social care policy on the one hand and the model of personal budgets created by the 2014 Act on the other. It concludes that the policy rhetoric around personal budgets directly appropriates the language and ideas of the disabled people’s movement while promoting a wholly distinct agenda of public sector marketisation.     

Legal aid services in Spain within the migration industry debate. Public policy,business or social compromise?

ABSTRACT

The objective of this article is to examine the unexplored role of public defenders who provide legal aid services to immigrants within the debate on the migration control and rescue industries. Although these services are provided by bar associations, public organizations that group private professionals, they are paid for with government funds due to regulations guaranteeing the right to legal defence. The main argument and conclusion of this article is that although lawyers working in these services receive public compensation for the legal aid they provide, they generally become public defenders due to personal beliefs, such as a commitment to protecting the rights of foreigners.     

Mystery shopping: demand-side phenomena in markets for personal plight legal services

ABSTRACT

“Personal plight” is the sector of the legal services industry in which the clients are individuals, and the legal needs arise from disputes. This article proposes that competition among personal plight law firms is suppressed by three demand-side phenomena. First, consumers confront high search costs. Identifying competing law firms willing and able to provide the needed services often requires significant expenditure of temporal and psychological resources. Second, comparable price and quality information about firms is scarce for consumers. Both of these factors impede comparison shopping and reduce competitive pressure on firms. A third competition-suppressing factor is observed in tort legal service markets, where offerings are typically priced on a contingency basis. Contingency fees have relatively low salience to consumers, and this reduces consumers’ willingness to negotiate and comparison-shop on the basis of price. This analysis is supported by the author’s empirical research with Ontario personal plight lawyers as well as the existing literature. The article concludes by suggesting possible consequences of this analysis for regulatory policy.     

LINKING ACTUAL AND PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT:

An untested proposition in deterrence theory is that people's perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community are influenced by their exposure to information about crimes committed in the community which have and have not resulted in arrest. We examine the effects of two sources of information on people k perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community: (1) newspaper crime stories and (2) personal experiences with crimes and the personal experiences of one's acquaintances. Only the latter appear to influence people's estimates of the certainty of arrest.     

Consequences of legal risk communication for sanction perception updating and white-collar criminality

Objectives

Scholars have long emphasized that communicating, or “advertising”, information about legal sanction risk is necessary for the success of deterrence-based crime policies. However, scant research has evaluated whether direct communications about legal risk can cause sanction perception updating, the updating of ambiguity in sanction perceptions, or changes in persons’ willingness to offend. No prior studies have evaluated sanction perception updating for white-collar crimes.

Methods

To address this research void, the current study analyzes data from an experiment embedded in a recent national survey (N?=?878). Multivariate regression models estimate the effect of providing participants with information about the “objective” arrest risk for white-collar offenses on their sanction perceptions.

Results

The findings provide the first evidence that such information, when it is inconsistent with individuals’ prior beliefs, causes them to update: (1) their perceptions of the certainty of arrest; (2) their ambiguity about arrest risk; and, indirectly, (3) their willingness to commit white-collar crimes.

Conclusions

The results imply that individuals are willing to incorporate relevant information into their subjective beliefs about sanction risks. Importantly, however, they also make meaningful distinctions about the value of new information for understanding criminal risks.

     

Adverse Neighborhood Conditions and Sanction Risk Perceptions: Using SEM to Examine Direct and Indirect Effects

Objectives

The present study examines how individuals’ sanction risk perceptions are shaped by neighborhood context.

Methods

Using structural equation modeling on data from waves 6 and 7 of the National Youth Survey, we assess the direct and indirect relationships between adverse neighborhood conditions and two dimensions of sanction risk perceptions: the certainty of punishment and perceived shame. In addition, the role of shame as a mediator between neighborhood context and certainty of punishment is also investigated.

Results

The results indicate that adverse neighborhood conditions indirectly affect both forms of sanction risk perceptions, and additional results show that perceived shame fully mediates the effect of neighborhood conditions on perceptions of the certainty of punishment.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence/rational choice perspective will need to be revised to accommodate more explicitly the role of neighborhood context in shaping sanction risk perceptions.     

Criminal thinking as a moderator of the perceived certainty–offending relationship: age variations

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the perceived certainty of punishment and general criminal thinking interact and whether the effect varies as a function of age. Data from all 1354 members (1170 males, 184 females) of the Pathways to Desistance study were used to test whether perceived certainty, general criminal thinking, and their interaction predicted subsequent offending during late adolescence (16–18 years of age) and emerging adulthood (20–22 years of age). The results showed that while perceived certainty and general criminal thinking failed to interact at age 17, general criminal thinking moderated the effect of perceived certainty at age 21. During emerging adulthood, offending was more common and varied in young adults with low certainty perceptions and high criminal thinking than it was in emerging adults with high criminal thinking and high certainty perceptions or low criminal thinking and either high or low certainty perceptions.     

Plain English in the law — a new model for the 21st century

Abstract

Traditional language of the law is called “legalese” because it is difficult for those not trained in its mystery to understand. A myth about legalese is that it is necessary for certainty in law. This is untrue. The proponents of plain English have shown through their writing that the use of plain language in legal writing produces certainty in language that is easy to read and understand. This article looks at the history of the plain English movement and discusses its benefits, shows how legal writing can be improved by its use and, in the final section, briefly gives an illustration of how a culture of plain English writing can be embedded into a law school curriculum.     

Rethinking Community Organization and Robbery: Considering Illicit Market Dynamics

In this investigation we examine the relationship between the certainty of execution and murder in the District of Columbia, 1890–1970. By examining a small political/geographic unit like the District, we avoid the aggregation problems of previous time-series analyses at the national level, and time-series and cross-sectional investigations of states as the unit of analysis. At odds with the deterrence argument, we find no evidence of a substantial and/or statistically significant inverse relationship between the certainty of execution and murder rates when multiple execution and murder rate variables are considered, when various time lags are examined, and when five time periods are examined between 1890 and 1970. In contrast, there is some suggestion that the immediate effect of executions may be to increase, not decrease, murders. This possible effect is extremely slight and short-term, however, with murder and executions being largely independent factors in the District.     

Identifying “deterrable” offenders: Implications for research on deterrence

This article outlines a theoretical framework that distinguishes three forms of responsiveness to legal sanction threats: acute conformist, deterrable, and incorrigible. It then investigates the implications of the framework with data from a perceptual deterrence survey administered to 412 university students. The findings suggest the preeminent empirical regularity in deterrence research—that the deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment far exceeds that of the severity of punishment—may be overstated. An analysis confined to deterrable offenders suggests that the severity effect (relative to the certainty effect) may exceed that reported in extant research.     

Control over Personal Data in a Digital Age: Google Spain v AEPD and Mario Costeja Gonzalez

In the Google Spain judgment, the Grand Chamber of the EU Court of Justice determined the circumstances in which a search engine is obliged to remove links to data pertaining to an individual from the results displayed. The Court also considered the material and territorial scope of the EU data protection rules. This note argues that the Court's findings, which have been heavily criticised, are normatively coherent. The broad scope of application of data protection rules and the right of individuals to have their data deleted when certain conditions are fulfilled both play a part in granting individuals effective control over their personal data – an objective of EU data protection law.     

Opening a debate on personal boundaries and work with sex offenders: A personal view of a clinical supervisor

Abstract

As a clinical supervisor of employees working in prisons conducting rehabilitation programmes with offenders, I frequently encounter situations where personal boundaries are breached. This paper discusses the types of boundary breaches that may occur in work with sex offenders and why, and suggests ways in which individuals and teams can guard against breaches. Accepting that the possibility of boundary breaches exists for everyone, and providing awareness education of how they occur can assist in reducing them. Once they occur, the consequences can be devastating, ranging from embarrassment and unwanted publicity to loss of career and criminal convictions.     

Public attitudes to sex offenders in New Zealand

Abstract

Sexual offending is a topic that often invokes heated debate and strong opinions among individuals from all walks of life. Generally, those who commit crimes of a sexual nature are uniformly abhorred, especially those who sexually abuse children. While the presence of these views is widely acknowledged, little is known about what these views are or how they develop. This study aimed to answer this question by conducting focus groups in various centres around New Zealand. The results showed that the news media was identified as the most important source of information on sexual offenders, although there was some scepticism in regard to the veracity of such information. Some of the views expressed were consistent with current understandings of sexual offending while some appeared to be borne of a lack of information. The results are considered in light of current research and the implications and future directions for further research are discussed briefly.     

Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

ON AMBIGUITY IN PERCEPTIONS OF RISK:IMPLICATIONS FOR CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING AND DETERRENCE*

Deterrence theorists and researchers have argued that the critical dimension of sanction certainty is its level—increasing the certainty of punishment from a lower to a higher level will inhibit criminal conduct. However, the true certainty of punishment is rarely known with much precision. Both Sherman (1990) and Nagin (1998) have suggested that ambiguity about the level of punishment certainty is itself consequential in the decision to commit or refrain from crime. Here, we investigate this proposition. We find some evidence that individuals are “ambiguity averse” for decisions involving losses such as criminal punishments. This finding means that a more ambiguous perceived certainty of punishment is a greater deterrent of some crimes than a nominally equivalent but less ambiguous one. However, this effect depends on how large an individual's risk certainty perception is initially. That is, we find evidence for “boundary effects” (Casey and Scholz, 1991a, 1991b) in which this effect holds for lower probabilities but reverses for higher ones. For higher detection probabilities, individuals become “ambiguity seeking” such that a less ambiguous detection probability has more deterrent value than a nominally equivalent but more ambiguous detection probability. Results are presented from two distinct, but complementary, analysis samples and empirical approaches. These samples include a survey to college students with several hypothetical choice problems and data from the Pathways to Desistance study, a longitudinal investigation of serious adolescent offenders transitioning from adolescence to young adulthood.     

The Effects of Suspect Characteristics on Arrest: A Meta-Analysis

PurposeSynthesis research on the correlates of arrest has had a long history of analysis in police decision making research. Yet, much of this line of synthesis research has found mixed results and has been unable to definitively state whether relationships exist between suspect demographic characteristics, race, gender, age, and ethnicity, and arrest. This research attempts to clear this confusion created by previous synthesis attempts particularly.MethodsMeta-analysis was used to generate weighted mean effect sizes of the effect of race, gender, age, and ethnicity on arrest. Effect sizes were weighted using the inverse variance method and random effects modeling was also used. Moderator analyses were also performed.ResultsBlack individuals, males, and Hispanic individuals were significantly more likely to be arrested than white individuals, females, and non-Hispanic individuals. These effects persisted across the majority of moderator categories. Age was not a significant predictor of arrest.ConclusionsThe results here bring some degree of order to a large amount of arrest decision making literature. The findings confirm the results of a previous meta-analysis on race and arrest and also expand upon that research. These results expand “what we know” about the effect of race on arrest.     

Fertility decisions in transition: young adults’ perceptions on fertility three decades apart in Spain

ABSTRACT

The aim of this unique study is to analyze the generational change in perceptions regarding fertility decisions between young Spanish adults in the mid-1980s and young Spanish adults in the early 2010s and to test the extent to which the theoretical perspectives on fertility are supported by individual narratives over time. For nearly thirty years, Spain has had low fertility levels that contrast with the persistent ideal family size of two children. However, the literature has barely explored individuals’ perceptions of fertility decision-making over time. This paper seizes the exceptional opportunity to analyze 97 in-depth personal interviews of highly educated young adults in urban Spain from two independent studies conducted in 1985 and 2012. The results indicate that although the value change associated with the second demographic transition remains over time, the changes in age norms and partnership formation norms underlie the main differences between the two generations. Economic uncertainty and the lack of support for work-life balance stand out as persistent structural factors that influence the fertility decisions in both samples. In addition, the respondents’ narratives confirm that the transition of gender-role norms towards greater egalitarianism remains unfinished. By assigning value to the perceptions of individuals, this study contributes to the understanding of how the normative framework and meaning of childbearing have changed under the rubric of the macrolevel theoretical perspectives that explain fertility decline.