When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

Bigger is not Necessarily Better: An Analysis of Violence Against Women Estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey and the National Violence Against Women Survey

Apparent differences between violence against women estimates from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and the National Violence Against Women Survey (NVAWS) continue to generate confusion. How is it that two surveys purporting to measure the nature and extent of violence against women present such seemingly dissimilar estimates? The answer is found in the important, yet often over-looked details of each survey. Our objective is to clarify some of the reasons for apparent disparities between NCVS and NVAWS estimates by first identifying why published estimates are not comparable. Next, we adjust NCVS estimates to make them comparable to NVAWS estimates by restricting NCVS estimates to 1995 and including only persons age 18 or older, and by applying the NVAWS series victimization counting protocol to NCVS estimates. Contrary to findings in the literature, the NVAWS did not produce statistically greater estimates of violence against women compared to the NCVS. Further, incident counting protocols used in the NVAWS and the recalibrated NCVS increased the error, and decreased the reliability of the estimates.Michael R. Rand - The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of the Bureau of Justice Statistics or the U.S. Department of Justice.     

Exploring the Effects of Changes in Design on the Analytical Uses of the NCVS Data

In 1992 changes were made in the design of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to improve its accuracy and utility. Little is known about the effect of the redesign on the analytic uses of the NCVS. This paper examines the effects of the redesign across population subgroups important in analyses of victimization. This extends work on modeling victimization and begins the construction of a measurement model that addresses the reliability and validity of NCVS data across important analytic subgroups. These two goals are interrelated. If the redesign has a differential effect across subgroups, then it is critical to understand whether these effects increase or decrease the validity of the data. Assessing validity requires developing a model of survey response against which the results of the redesign can be compared. If differences across designs are consistent with expectation from the survey response model, then we can use these new data for substantive analyses. The design change had little effect on models of victimization. The effects observed were largely consistent with expectation from a survey response model except in the simple assault model, where the effects of age and income on victimization were reduced in the new design.     

The national crime survey and rape: The case of the missing question

Existing data on rape from the National Crime Survey (NCS) are of questionable value. These data are problematic because the survey never asks respondents directly whether they have been raped. As a result, it is difficult to ascertain exactly what the NCS is measuring. Nonetheless, there is some evidence that the NCS underestimates rape, thereby reinforcing the perception that rape is a rare occurrence. This paper also examines the redesign of the NCS and discusses the efficacy of the proposed changes in terms of their impact on the study of rape.     

Why is the Victimization of Young Latino Adults Higher in New Areas of Settlement?

Objectives

We used multilevel data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to identify factors that account for differences in risk of violent victimization among young Latino adults in new and traditional settlement areas.

Methods

Area-identified NCVS data (2008–2012) were linked with census tract data from the decennial census and American Community Survey to study individual and community contributions to the risk of violent victimization. We analyzed total violence and violence specific to offense types and victim-offender relationship. The analyses were performed adjusting for the complex survey design.

Results

Young Latino adults in new settlement areas have higher victimization rates than their counterparts in traditional areas for total violence and for the majority of violence types studied. Holding constant individual and other contextual factors, Latino population density is a key neighborhood characteristic that explains the observed area differences in victimization, yielding evidence for the hypothesis that co-ethnic support in a community helps protect young Latino adults and contributes to differences in victimization across areas. Also there is evidence that the protective role of Latino population density is stronger for violence involving non-strangers than it is for violence involving strangers. Moreover, we find that the concentration of Latino immigrants, which indicates the neighborhood potential for immigrant revitalization, is another neighborhood factor that protects young Latino adults in both new and traditional settlement areas. However, there is some but limited evidence that the neighborhood-revitalizing role of immigration might be smaller in some contexts (such as some new areas outside central cities), possibly because those areas are heterogeneous in their ability to promote the integration of immigrants.

Conclusions

Our analysis of the NCVS shows the importance of neighborhood factors for the risk of violence among young Latino adults. It provides evidence consistent with co-ethnic support and immigrant revitalization theories. The findings also suggest that the effects of those neighborhood factors may be contingent upon violence type and the context in which they occur. These findings help us understand the difference in the safety of young Latino adults in new and traditional areas.

     

Intimate sexual violence in the United States: Social work and family therapy interventions

Abstract

This article defines what is meant by intimate sexual violence and provides a brief historical context to this phenomenon. The incidence and impact of intimate sexual violence are clarified and discussed, as are the various factors contributing to this abusive behaviour. Current literature on intimate sexual violence in the United States is reviewed and differing approaches to responding to incidents of intimate sexual violence are identified as they might inform assessment and treatment options.

Taking intimate sexual violence seriously has implications for contraceptive counselling, abortion counselling, mental health counselling and family therapy. The article aims to inform practitioners of the essential issues surrounding intimate sexual violence, so that whenever intimate sexual violence is suspected, the social worker or family therapist can assess and intervene in a responsive and effective manner.     

Revisiting Respondent “Fatigue Bias” in the National Crime Victimization Survey

For more than three decades the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—and its predecessor the National Crime Survey (NCS)—have been used to calculate estimates of nonfatal crime in the United States. Though the survey has contributed much to our understanding of criminal victimization, some aspects of the survey’s methodology continue to be analyzed (e.g., repeat victimizations, proxy interviews, and bounding). Surprisingly, one important aspect of NCVS methodology has escaped this scrutiny: respondent fatigue. A potential source of nonsampling error, fatigue bias is thought to manifest as respondents become “test wise” after repeated exposure to NCVS survey instruments. Using a special longitudinal NCVS data file, we revisit the presence and influence of respondent fatigue in the NCVS. Specifically, we test the theory that respondents exposed to longer interviews during their first interview are more likely to refuse to participate in the survey 6 months later. Contrary to expectations based on the literature, results show that prior reporting of victimization and exposure to a longer interview is not a significant predictor of a noninterview during the following time-in-sample once relevant individual characteristics are accounted for. Findings do demonstrate significant effects of survey mode and several respondent characteristics on subsequent survey non-participation.     

Social and Scientific Influences on the Measurement of Criminal Victimization

The National Crime Victimization Survey has been informed by decades of methodological research on the measurement of victimization. Yet most criminologists have little knowledge of the process or outcomes of this research or its effects on the characteristics of the survey. Using in-house reports, conference papers, agency memoranda, and other documents, this paper describes some of the important methodological research that has taken place since the 1992 redesign of the survey. Much of the more recent research is the consequence of new initiatives for the survey, such as the measurement of hate crime victimization and victimization among the developmentally disabled, as well as periodic supplements. This research finds that the current characteristics of the NCVS reflect decisions made on the basis of methodological research, broader social and political factors, and budgetary constraints.     

Towards identifying and ranking selected types of violence against women in North India

ABSTRACT

The paper is aimed at identifying and ranking different types of violence against women (VAW) in states of Delhi and Haryana in Northern India. Examples of gender-specific violence were selected through an extensive review of the literature. The types of VAW reviewed include the lower economic value of daughters at birth (females being considered a liability rather than an asset), rampant female feticides aided by proliferation of often illegal prenatal diagnoses, maternal morbidity, and mortality rates, physical and emotional abuse and neglect of female children, “honour” killing of women, exclusion and deprivation of women from medical treatment and nutrition, their subjection to assaults and rape (including marital rape), insufficient compliance to women’s legal rights of inheritance, arranging early marriages of girls, dowry deaths, female sexual harassment, and intimidation in community and workplace, female trafficking and prostitution, and so forth.

The conceptual frame of reference used for the study was provided by the culturally sanctioned legitimation of the patriarchal system of Indian family as well as by people’s perceptions and attitudes. Data were collected through the survey method in two phases. A preliminary survey was conducted during the first phase for developing the questionnaire items to be used for data collection in the phase two of the study. The findings of the study are presented and reveal participants’ rankings of selected types of VAW by degree of relative importance. Data, based on secondary sources as well as a non-random sample of respondents, were analysed to assess the various areas which demand immediate redress. We also interpret data based on selected criteria and suggest few optimistic future trends in regard to addressing and preventing VAW.     

Burundi’s rebel groups and the stigmatisation of wartime sexual violence

ABSTRACT

Despite assumptions about the ubiquity of wartime sexual violence, some armed actors work hard to generate negative views of rape and other abuses. This article qualitatively explores rebel group stigmatisation (and stigma) of wartime sexual violence and prohibitive normative practices. Regularly discussed with reference to the shaming of victims or survivors, stigmatisation is nonetheless utilised here as a concept for understanding how sexual coercion is “made” deviant and consequential for potential perpetrators. Two rebel groups from Burundi’s civil war (1994–2008), CNDD-FDD (National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy) and FNL (Palipehutu-Forces for National Liberation), are compared. The FNL stigmatised rape and sexual assault, and the nature and quality of its practices shaped negative social norms surrounding rape. The article’s main contribution is to demonstrate the need to deepen and widen the evidence base on the prevention of wartime sexual violence.     

Perpetuating myths of women as false complainants in rape cases in India: culture V. The law

ABSTRACT

Despite public outrage over our global “rape culture,” sexual offences continue to be characterised by low levels of reporting, prosecution, and conviction in many countries. Attrition rates for sexual assault internationally, although varying in pattern, are consistently high. As a signatory to the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) and the Declaration on the Elimination of Violence against Women (DEVAW), the Indian Government acknowledges the need to afford better protection to victims of gender violence. Assessing the effect of rape law reform in India, using crime statistics and a survey of recent judgments from the Delhi District Courts, the author argues that the legislature has failed systematically to address the many injustices experienced by women who allege rape. The Indian Parliament responding to the moral panic generated by the Delhi gang rape case with knee-jerk reforms, focused mainly on increasing penalties, maintaining an outmoded view of rape as a crime against morality rather than as a violation of gender rights and human rights. By closely investigating the sociocultural context in which sexual crimes against women occur in India, the author reveals that India’s “cultural” arguments for rejecting further reform (such as repeal of the marital rape immunity) are merely entrenched gender biases, bearing strong parallels to nineteenth century English common law perceptions of women who allege rape as a class of false complainants.     

Understanding the Role of Repeat Victims in the Production of Annual US Victimization Rates

Victimization incidence rates produced from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) are a generally accepted annual indicator of the amount and type of crime in the United States. However, persons who report a large number of similar victimizations—known as series victimizations in the NCVS—are currently excluded in government reports of annual violent victimizations. This paper quantifies the effect of series incident counting procedures on national estimates of violent victimization. The findings suggest that these high-volume repeat victims can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of violent victimization. Current government counting rules that exclude series incidents do not include about three out of every five violent victimizations and distorts the characterization and risk of violence in the United States. However, the inclusion of series incidents introduces significant estimate instability. One remedy is to use prevalence rates in concert with incidence rates to present a more complete and reliable picture of victimization.

What Was It They Lost?

Abstract

The issue of family violence is a modern scourge on Canadian society. Recent estimates indicate that during the previous five years in Canada, 7% of women and 6% of men encountered spousal violence (Statistics Canada, 2005). Furthermore, Aboriginal communities in Canada experience disproportionately high rates of family violence, due to a myriad of reasons. While the impact of colonization continues to affect the lives of Aboriginal people, what is less well known are the more recent social and emotional effects of excessive resource development, particularly in isolated communities. Through an examination of the perspectives of community workers regarding family violence in their community, located in northern Canada and displaced by hydroelectric development, a range of ideas were explored. Critical race theory provides a backdrop for understanding the endemic nature of the systemic racism that characterizes the relationship between Aboriginal peoples and the government. The study demonstrates that the social and emotional impact of excessive resource development continues to resonate in a negative manner, even many years following displacement.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

Stranger sexual homicide: an exploratory behavioural analysis of offender crime scene actions

ABSTRACT

This study explores the role and function of homicidal and sexual violence in cases of stranger sexual homicide. The aim was to determine whether the instrumental/expressive hypothesis of physical violence and the overt/covert hypothesis of sexual violence applies to this crime. The method involved an analysis of the crime scene actions of 81 British stranger sexual killers using multidimensional scaling. Results suggest the instrumental/expressive hypothesis of physical violence and the overt/covert hypothesis of sexual violence does apply to stranger sexual homicide but they manifest as instrumental/overt and expressive/covert superordinate themes comprising four sub-themes reflecting rape, impersonal sexual assault, overkill and control. Although these superordinate themes can explain some stranger sexual homicides, a key hypothesis of this study is that the four sub-themes can also combine into different superordinate themes, knowledge of which can aid our understanding of this serious and deviant form of interpersonal violence.     

Measuring Civilian Defensive Firearm Use: A Methodological Experiment

Estimates of the incidence of victim gun use from the National CrimeVictimization Survey (NCVS) are consistently lower than are those fromother studies. To examine the divergence, we conducted a survey that gaugedthe impact of methodological differences between the NCVS and the otherstudies. For half of the sample, we asked questions from the NCVS, followedby questions from the other surveys. For the other half of the sample, wepresented the questions in the reverse order. We examined two hypotheses:(1) survey methods account for the divergent results, and (2) the questionscover unrelated activities. The results provided some support for the firsthypothesis, but respondents also reported many more defenses to thequestions from the other surveys than to the NCVS questions. Consistent withthe second hypothesis, this suggests that the NCVS and the other surveysmeasure responses to largely different provocations.     

Specialist domestic violence courts for child arrangement cases:safer courtrooms and safer outcomes?

ABSTRACT

Child arrangement cases in England and Wales are dealt with in the ordinary family courts. Whilst a special practice direction is applicable to child arrangement proceedings where there are allegations of domestic abuse, there is no specialist domestic violence court in the family justice setting. However, court specialisation is a feature of the criminal justice system and has been demonstrated to have success in domestic violence cases. Some of the potential benefits of specialisation, such as the provision of safer courtrooms, might be transferable to the family justice setting. Given the well documented problems of ordinary courts dealing with child arrangements in domestic violence cases, this article considers whether court specialisation could provide victims with safer courtrooms and safer outcomes in child arrangement cases.     

Penalizing women’s fear: intimate partner violence and parental alienation in Canadian child custody cases

ABSTRACT

This paper explores Canadian family law cases involving claims of parental alienation and of family violence from 2014–2018, reporting the data on these claims, their resolution, and their impacts upon custody and access. A close reading of those cases where both alienation and intimate partner violence claims are made reveals troubling patterns in how intimate partner violence is discounted in this context. We suggest that the rise of shared parenting as a dominant norm assists in understanding why alienation has achieved such unquestioned status, and call for greater focus on safety and women’s and children’s voices.