Canadian firearms legislation and effects on homicide 1974 to 2008

Canada has implemented legislation covering all firearms since 1977 and presents a model to examine incremental firearms control. The effect of legislation on homicide by firearm and the subcategory, spousal homicide, is controversial and has not been well studied to date. Legislative effects on homicide and spousal homicide were analyzed using data obtained from Statistics Canada from 1974 to 2008. Three statistical methods were applied to search for any associated effects of firearms legislation. Interrupted time series regression, ARIMA, and Joinpoint analysis were performed. Neither were any significant beneficial associations between firearms legislation and homicide or spousal homicide rates found after the passage of three Acts by the Canadian Parliament--Bill C-51 (1977), C-17 (1991), and C-68 (1995)--nor were effects found after the implementation of licensing in 2001 and the registration of rifles and shotguns in 2003. After the passage of C-68, a decrease in the rate of the decline of homicide by firearm was found by interrupted regression. Joinpoint analysis also found an increasing trend in homicide by firearm rate post the enactment of the licensing portion of C-68. Other factors found to be associated with homicide rates were median age, unemployment, immigration rates, percentage of population in low-income bracket, Gini index of income equality, population per police officer, and incarceration rate. This study failed to demonstrate a beneficial association between legislation and firearm homicide rates between 1974 and 2008.     

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980–2010

Objectives

Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980–2010 period.

Results

Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels.

Conclusions

There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general.     

Gender differences in lethal violence: Historical trends in the relationship between homicide and suicide rates, 1960–2000

This study examines historical trends in the relationship between homicide and suicide rates and considers the extent to which gender differences exist in that relationship. From the perspective of the integrated homicide-suicide theory, gender differences in the homicidesuicide relationship stem from differences in the manner in which males and females attribute blame and responsibility for negative life events. Consistent with expectations, the data indicate that females engage in less homicide but in more suicide than males. Seemingly unrelated regression techniques were used to further examine gender differences in the relationship between homicide and suicide rates by analyzing U.S. data for 1960 through 2000. The results indicate more gender similarities than differences in that temporal trends in the production and direction of lethal violence for both males and females tend to be associated with similar social and economic factors.     

Homicide of children and adolescents in Mexico (1990–2013)

The trends and correlates of child and juvenile homicide rates in three developmental age groups (0-5, 6-11, and 12-17) during 1990–2013 in Mexico are examined by using vital statistical data. Homicide rates for adults and children were calculated yearly and the place where homicides occurred and the means used to commit homicide examined. Changes and continuities in homicide rates during 2002–2007 and 2008–2013 and their association with socio-economic, status of women, public security efforts, and firearm availability variables were studied. Homicide rates increased rapidly for adults and children in 2008 as did the rates in which a firearm was used. Rates for adults and children 0–5 years were particularly correlated. In some states, the youngest children’s rates increased by 75% or more than the rates for adults. High-increase states for younger children were closer to the U.S. border, were farther from abortion services, and had growing rates of female-headed households.     

The relationship between urbanisation and cross-national homicide rates: robustness across multiple estimation methods

Urbanisation has generally been found to be a non-significant predictor of homicide rates in cross-national studies. Despite this, there is strong theoretical support for the presence of a positive association between the two. The present study analyses data for up to 57 nations for the period 1993–2005 and examines the relationship between urbanisation and homicide using pooled ordinary least squares, feasible generalised least squares, panel-corrected standard errors, fixed-effects, and random-effects estimation. The results show that urbanisation is one of the strongest predictors of homicide in the cross-national context. This is consistent with the expected relationship according to modernisation theory and suggests that rapidly urbanising nations should be concerned with the unintended consequences of urbanisation.     

HOMICIDE IN DETROIT The Role of Firearms

This study attempts to determine the role of firearms in accounting for the rising homicide rate of one city. Firearms were examined in relation to other weapons and subsequently firearm availability was examined in relation to other variables that could affect the rate of homicides. A majority of the increase in the homicide rate could be attributed to an increase in handgun murders. Firearm availability accounted for one-quarter of the rise in homicides.     

Firearm Ownership in High-Conflict Families: Differences According to State Laws Restricting Firearms to Misdemeanor Crimes of Domestic Violence Offenders

This study examines the association between state laws that prohibit firearm ownership for offenders convicted of misdemeanor crimes of domestic violence (MCDV) and firearm ownership in two-parent families with high-conflict male partners with arrest histories. Mixed effects logistic regression models applied to data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth cohort (n?= 5350) determined that living in a state with laws that prohibited firearm ownership for convicted MCDV offenders decreased the likelihood of firearm ownership among families with high-conflict males by 62%. The length of the time limit on firearm prohibition was correlated with incremental decreases in firearm ownership in such families, with the probability of firearm ownership among families with high-conflict males decreasing from 30% in states with no MCDV laws restricting access from firearms to 12% in states with permanent prohibition on firearm ownership. These findings have significance for public health policy aimed at decreasing intimate-partner homicide.     

The Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Changes in Neighborhood Crime Rates

Objectives

This study investigated the extent to which immigrant concentration is associated with reductions in neighborhood crime rates in the City of Los Angeles.

Methods

A potential outcomes model using two-stage least squares regression was estimated, where immigrant concentration levels in 1990 were used as an instrumental variable to predict immigrant concentration levels in 2000. The instrumental variables design was used to reduce selection bias in estimating the effect of immigrant concentration on changes in official crime rates between 2000 and 2005 for census tracts in the City of Los Angeles, holding constant other demographic variables and area-level fixed effects. Non-parametric smoothers were also employed in a two-stage least squares regression model to control for the potential influence of heterogeneity in immigrant concentration on changes in crime rates.

Results

The results indicate that greater predicted concentrations of immigrants in neighborhoods are linked to significant reductions in crime. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications.

Conclusions

The findings challenge traditional ecological perspectives that link immigrant settlement to higher rates of crime. Immigration settlement patterns appear to be associated with reducing the social burden of crime. Study conclusions are limited by the potential for omitted variables that may bias the observed relationship between immigrant concentration and neighborhood crime rates, and the use of only official crime data which may under report crimes committed against immigrants. Understanding whether immigrant concentration is an important dynamic of changing neighborhood patterns of crime outside Los Angeles will require replication with data from other U.S. cities.     

Licensed firearm dealers,legal compliance,and local homicide: A case study

Research summary

This study uses a combination of tract-level and street network-level analyses to examine: (1) the overall association between federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) and homicides, (2) the relationship between dealers with serious violations (such as selling to prohibited buyers or failing to record sales) and homicide, and (3) whether the dealer–homicide association is moderated by community disadvantage. Results replicate and confirm a relationship between dealers and homicides in disadvantaged neighborhoods. Importantly, however, we also find that proximity to noncompliant dealers specifically elevates the risk of lethal violence.

Policy implications

We detail how a coordinated effort between federal, state, and local agencies to regulate firearm dealers and ensure that legal compliance can be instrumental in reducing gun violence. There is a clear need for increased oversight of gun dealers and more robust policies that hold negligent dealers accountable, including the necessary funding and regulatory manpower to enable regular auditing and support consistent follow-up for noncompliant dealers. A comprehensive policy framework that supports supply-side gun violence reduction should include additions to state-level laws that require record keeping, videotaping and store security, and regular inspection for firearm dealers.     

Social Structure and Family Homicides

To date, few studies have analyzed the relationship that economic deprivation and social disorganization have with disaggregated family homicide types. This study utilized data from the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports from years 2000–2007 in order to explore the effect social structural variables have on rates of family homicides—specifically, intimate partner, filicide, parricide, and siblicide. Cities with more than 100,000 residents were analyzed using ordinary least squares regression. Findings showed that economic deprivation had a significant and positive relationship with all types of disaggregated family homicides, but were stronger for intimate partner homicides and filicides. Social disorganization, however, showed a negative relationship with these types of homicides. Our study provides a basis for possible policy implications, such as economically based institutions to help those in need before financial strain reaches a point of violence.     

Applying Time-series Cross Correlation Analysis to Examine the Nexus between Firearms and Homicide in Hong Kong

This paper applied time series analysis to examine the nexus between firearm robberies and homicide in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HK). Recent years have seen a reduction in firearm related offences in HK compared to Britain. For instance, only three cases of firearm robbery in 2004 in HK (0.1% of all robbery; 2,237 incidents) involved genuine firearms, compared to 4,117 firearm robbery incidents (4% of all robbery) in Britain in the same year. This paper established a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.50 at lag 0 for the annual rate of two serious crimes, genuine firearm robbery and homicide, after identifying an ARMA(1,0) model from each time series (1972–2002). The results suggest that the prevalence of firearm robbery is moderately associated with the prevalence of homicide in HK.

The impact of population heterogeneity and income inequality on homicide rates: a cross-national assessment

The current research produces regression models with sample sizes from 127 to 131 by initially employing a data set of 170 nations. The current study finds that ethnic heterogeneity and linguistic heterogeneity lead to higher homicide rates. However, religious heterogeneity has no impact on homicide rates. The present article also tests an interaction effect between population heterogeneity and income inequality. Unlike J. R. Blau and Blau (1982) and Avision and Loring (1986) proposition, the interaction term is not related to national homicide rates. The current study also discusses the theoretical implications of those findings.     

YOUNG GUNS: EXAMINING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF JUVENILE FIREARM HOMICIDE RATES*

In recent years, youth firearm homicide has become a topic of great public concern in the United States. However, few macrolevel studies have examined intercity variation in juvenile firearm homicide. In the current study, we address this gap in the literature by examining whether intercity variation in firearm‐related homicide rates among black and white juveniles is explained by three prominent structural factors: concentrated disadvantage, racial inequality, and the youth illicit drug market activity. Our findings suggest partial support for the concentrated disadvantage and juvenile drug market explanations of homicide. However, contrary to expectations, these relationships are only significant in models for white juveniles.     

Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three

Building upon and expanding the previous research into structural determinants of homicide, particularly the work of Land, McCall, and Cohen (1990), the current paper introduces a multilevel theoretical framework that outlines the influences of three major structural forces on homicidal violence. The Big Three are poverty/low education, racial composition, and the disruption of family structure. These three factors exert their effects on violence at the following levels: neighborhood/community level, family/social interpersonal level, and individual level. It is shown algebraically how individual-level and aggregate-level effects contribute to the size of regression coefficients in aggregate-level analyses. In the empirical part of the study, the presented theoretical model is tested using county-level data to estimate separate effects of each of the Big Three factors on homicide at two time periods: 1950–1960 and 1995–2005 (chosen to be as far removed from one another as the availability of data allows). All major variables typically used in homicide research are included as statistical controls. The results of analyses show that the effects of the three major structural forces—poverty/low education, race, and divorce rates—on homicide rates in US counties are remarkably strong. Moreover, the effect sizes of each of the Big Three are found to be identical for both time periods despite profound changes in the economic and social situation in the United States over the past half-century. This remarkable stability in the effect sizes implies the stability of homicidal violence in response to certain structural conditions.     

Homicide-suicide and other violent deaths: an international comparison

Homicides followed by the suicide of the perpetrator constitute a serious form of interpersonal violence. Until now no study has directly compared homicide-suicides to other violent deaths from multiple countries, allowing for a better understanding of the nature of these violent acts. Using country-specific data, this study describes and compares the incidence and patterns of homicide-suicide as well as the relationship between homicide-suicide, homicide, suicide and domestic homicide in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States. The results indicate that cross-nationally, homicide-suicides are more likely than other types of lethal violence to involve a female victim, multiple victims, take place in a residential setting and to be committed by a firearm. Although homicide-suicides display many similarities across the different countries, differences exist regarding age and the use of firearms in the offence. This study indicates that homicides followed by suicides differ from both homicides and suicides in similar ways internationally. Cross-national differences in the availability of firearms may explain the international variation of homicide-suicide rates and patterns.     

State background checks and firearms homicides

This study examined the relationship between state firearms homicides and background checks for firearms purchases. Controlling for economic and social conditions, the estimated number of firearms in circulation, offenders under community supervision, and violent crime it was found that states with less stringent background checks on firearms purchases were significantly associated with firearms homicides. The large number of firearms circulating within the United States makes it likely that a motivated—but ineligible—person could obtain a firearm over the long-term in the secondary firearms market. Effective state background checks, however, may temporarily frustrate an unauthorized person from obtaining a firearm that, in turn, may contribute to lower firearms homicide rates. Implications for further research are examined.     

Race/Ethnic-Specific Homicide Rates in New York City: Evaluating the Impact of Broken Windows Policing and Crack Cocaine Markets

The current study evaluated a range of social influences including misdemeanor arrests, drug arrests, cocaine consumption, alcohol consumption, firearm availability, and incarceration that may be associated with changes in gun-related homicides by racial/ethnic group in New York City (NYC) from 1990 to 1999. Using police precincts as the unit of analysis, we used cross-sectional, time series data to examine changes in Black, White, and Hispanic homicides, separately. Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term indicated that an increase in cocaine consumption was associated with an increase in Black homicides. An increase in firearm availability was associated with an increase in Hispanic homicides. Last, there were no significant predictors for White homicides. Support was found for the crack cocaine hypotheses but not for the broken windows hypothesis. Examining racially/ethnically disaggregated data can shed light on group-sensitive mechanisms that may explain changes in homicide over time.     

The Age Structure-Crime Rate Relationship: Solving a Long-Standing Puzzle

Objectives

Develop the concept of differential institutional engagement and test its ability to explain discrepant findings regarding the relationship between the age structure and homicide rates across ecological studies of crime. We hypothesize that differential degrees of institutional engagement—youths with ties to mainstream social institutions such as school, work or the military on one end of the spectrum and youths without such bonds on the other end—account for the direction of the relationship between homicide rates and age structure (high crime prone ages, such as 15–29).

Methods

Cross sectional, Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses using robust standard errors are conducted using large samples of cities characterized by varying degrees of youths’ differential institutional engagement for the years 1980, 1990 and 2000. The concept is operationalized with the percent of the population enrolled in college and the percent of 16–19 year olds who are simultaneously not enrolled in school, not in the labor market (not in the labor force or unemployed), and not in the military.

Results

Consistent and invariant results emerged. Positive effects of age structure on homicide rates are found in cities that have high percentages of disengaged youth and negative effects are found among cities characterized with high percentages of youth participating in mainstream social institutions.

Conclusions

This conceptualization of differential institutional engagement explains the discrepant findings in prior studies, and the findings demonstrate the influence of these contextual effects and the nature of the age structure-crime relationship.     

A METHODOLOGICAL ADDITION TO THE CROSS‐NATIONAL EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ON SOCIAL STRUCTURE AND HOMICIDE: A FIRST TEST OF THE POVERTY‐HOMICIDE THESIS*

Dozens of cross‐national studies of homicide have been published in the last three decades. Although nearly all these studies test for an association between inequality and homicide, no studies test for a poverty—homicide association. This absence is disconcerting given that poverty is one of the most consistent predictors of area homicide rates in the abundant empirical literature on social structure and homicide in the United States. Using a sample that coincides closely with similar recent studies, applying a proxy for poverty (infant mortality) that is commonly employed in noncriminological cross‐national research, and controlling for several common covariates (including inequality), this study provides the first test of the poverty—homicide hypothesis at the cross‐national level. The results reveal a positive and significant association between a nation's level of poverty and its homicide rate. The findings also suggest that we may need to reassess the strong conclusions about an inequality—homicide association drawn from prior studies, as this relationship disappears when poverty is included in the model.     

Exploring the potential of stricter gun restrictions for people with serious mental illness to reduce homicide in the United States

This study explores the potential that current efforts to limit access to firearms for individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) have for reducing overall rates of murder by firearm in the United States. Official arrest, court and health records provided data on personal and offense characteristics of 95 individuals with SMI and 423 without, all of whom had been convicted of murder in the State of Indiana between 1990 and 2002. Bivariate analyses examined differences between the two groups and logistic regression models examined the relationship between SMI and offense characteristics. Compared to those without, a relatively small proportion of convicted murderers had a diagnosis indicating SMI. The presence of SMI was associated with reduced likelihood of targeting a stranger and was not associated with having multiple-victims or firearm use. Focusing on access to firearms exclusively by individuals with SMI will have little impact on multiple-victim or firearm-related homicides.