Unemployment and Crime Rate Fluctuations: A Comment on Greenberg

Several ways in which the specification of the Cantor and Land (1985) conceptual model of transient relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rate fluctuations differs from that of Greenberg (2001) are noted. It follows that we do not accept Greenberg's Eq. (1) as a valid theoretical representation of the processes of interest. We briefly review the substantive context from which our investigation began in the mid-1980s. We also review the time series properties of our model and of the aggregate unemployment and crime rates used in its estimation. We note how the time series behavior of various crime rates determines which parts of the Cantor and Land model are and are not likely to be estimated as statistically significant for those series. We conclude with some comments on the limitations of aggregate time series research designs for testing the behavioral hypotheses used to generate expected relationships between aggregate unemployment and crime rates and suggest some alternative research designs.     

A LONGITUDINAL TEST OF THE EFFECTS OF PARENTING AND THE STABILITY OF SELF‐CONTROL: NEGATIVE EVIDENCE FOR THE GENERAL THEORY OF CRIME*

This study investigates two core propositions of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) general theory of crime. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 750 African American children and their primary caregivers, we first examine whether self‐control fully mediates the effect of parenting on delinquency. Consistent with the general theory, we find that low self‐control is positively associated with involvement in delinquency. Counter to Gottfredson and Hirschi's proposition, we find that self‐control only partially attenuates the negative effect of parental efficacy on delinquency. Next, we assess the theory's hypothesis that between‐individual levels of self‐control are stable. Finding substantial instability in self‐control across the two waves, we explore whether social factors can explicate these changes in self‐control. The four social relationships we incorporate (improvements in parenting, attachment to teachers, association with pro‐social peers, and association with deviant peers) explain a substantial portion of the changes in self‐control. We then discuss the implications of these findings for the general theory of crime.     

RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SES AND DELINQUENCY: CAUSATION BUT NOT CORRELATION*

Many theories of crime have linked low levels of socioeconomic status (SES) to high levels of delinquency. However, empirical studies have consistently found weak or nonexistent correlations between individuals' SES and their self-reported delinquent behavior. Drawing upon recent theoretical innovations (Hagan et al., 1985; Jensen, 1993; Tittle, 1995), we propose that this apparent contradiction between theory and data may be reconciled by recognizing that SES has both a negative and a positive indirect effect upon delinquency that, in tandem, results in little overall correlation between the two. We tested this proposal with longitudinal data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. We used measures of parental SES recorded at study members' birth through age 15, social-psychological characteristics at age 18, and self-reported delinquency at ages 18 and 21. We found that low SES promoted delinquency by increasing individuals' alienation, financial strain, and aggression and by decreasing educational and occupational aspirations, whereas high SES promoted individuals' delinquency by increasing risk taking and social power and by decreasing conventional values. These findings suggest a reconciliation between theory and data, and they underscore the conceptual importance of elucidating the full range of causal linkages between SES and delinquency.     

Longitudinal neighborhood profiles in delinquency: The decomposition of change

The methods that traditionally have been used to examine changing spatial distributions of crime and delinquency rates are not able to analyze parsimoniously the full range of within-community variation in these rates over time. In this paper, we present a variant of Bryk and Raudenbush's(Psychol. Bull. 101: 147–158, 1987) hierarchical linear model that can simultaneously examine the full range of within- and between-group variation contained in longitudinal data sets. The method is illustrated through an analysis of the delinquency rates characterizing Chicago's neighborhoods between 1930 and 1970.     

Is it Important to Examine Crime Trends at a Local “Micro” Level?: A Longitudinal Analysis of Street to Street Variability in Crime Trajectories

Over the last 40 years, the question of how crime varies across places has gotten greater attention. At the same time, as data and computing power have increased, the definition of a ‘place’ has shifted farther down the geographic cone of resolution. This has led many researchers to consider places as small as single addresses, group of addresses, face blocks or street blocks. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of the spatial distribution of crime have consistently found crime is strongly concentrated at a small group of ‘micro’ places. Recent longitudinal studies have also revealed crime concentration across micro places is relatively stable over time. A major question that has not been answered in prior research is the degree of block to block variability at this local ‘micro’ level for all crime. To answer this question, we examine both temporal and spatial variation in crime across street blocks in the city of Seattle Washington. This is accomplished by applying trajectory analysis to establish groups of places that follow similar crime trajectories over 16 years. Then, using quantitative spatial statistics, we establish whether streets having the same temporal trajectory are collocated spatially or whether there is street to street variation in the temporal patterns of crime. In a surprising number of cases we find that individual street segments have trajectories which are unrelated to their immediately adjacent streets. This finding of heterogeneity suggests it may be particularly important to examine crime trends at very local geographic levels. At a policy level, our research reinforces the importance of initiatives like ‘hot spots policing’ which address specific streets within relatively small areas.     

PARENTAL EFFICACY AND DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR: DO CONTROL AND SUPPORT MATTER?

Recently, the concept of "collective efficacy" has been advanced to understand how communities exert control and provide support to reduce crime. In a similar way, we use the concept of "parental efficacy" to highlight the crime reducing effects associated with parents who support and control their youth. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we examine the inter-relationship between parental controls and supports and their joint influence on youthful misbehavior. The results show that (1) support and control are intertwined, and (2) that parental efficacy exerts substantive effects on adolescent delinquency for the sample as a whole and across varying age groups.     

A Latent Variable Analysis of General Strain Theory

Strain theory has returned to the forefront of criminological theory and research, due primarily to the general strain model developed by Robert Agnew. Agnew posits that a broad range of negative social relations comprises strain and that these straining mechanisms lead to delinquent behavior and other maladaptive functioning. Moreover, strain has its strongest effect on delinquency when certain coping strategies are attenuated or when delinquent peers reinforce perceptions of strain. Although several studies have now shown the utility of general strain theory as an explanation of delinquency, they have relied mainly on cross-sectional effects or two-wave panel designs using methods that fail to consider measurement error or autocorrelated errors. In this study we extend these analyses by estimating a latent variable structural equation model that examines the effects of strain—operationalized as negative life events—on conventional attachment and delinquency over a 3-year period. Furthermore, we directly assess Agnew's coping strategies hypotheses by stratifying the models by self-efficacy, self-esteem, and peer delinquency. The results indicate that significant longitudinal effects of strain on delinquency emerge during year 3 but that these effects are not conditioned by self-efficacy or self-esteem. Changes in strain also affect changes in delinquency, but only among those who report no delinquent peers. We do find, however, that over the initial 2 years strain has a negative effect on delinquency among those high in self-efficacy, self-esteem, or delinquent peers. The findings are discussed in terms of Agnew's theory.     

EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND JUVENILE DELINQUENCY*

Most criminological theories predict an inverse relationship between employment and crime, but teenagers' involvement in paid work during the school year is correlated positively with delinquency and substance use. Whether the work–delinquency association is causal or spurious has been debated for a long time. This study estimates the effect of paid work on juvenile delinquency using longitudinal data from the national Monitoring the Future project. We address issues of spuriousness by using a two-level hierarchical model to estimate the relationships of within-individual changes in juvenile delinquency and substance use to those in paid work and other explanatory variables. We also disentangle the effects of actual employment from the preferences for employment to provide insight about the likely role of time-varying selection factors tied to employment, delinquency, school engagement, and leisure activities. Whereas causal effects of employment would produce differences based on whether and how many hours respondents worked, we found significantly higher rates of crime and substance use among nonemployed youth who preferred intensive versus moderate work. Our findings suggest the relationship between high-intensity work and delinquency results from preexisting factors that lead youth to desire varying levels of employment.     

Violence in Urban Neighborhoods: A Longitudinal Study of Collective Efficacy and Violent Crime

Objectives

Cross-sectional studies consistently find that neighborhoods with higher levels of collective efficacy experience fewer social problems. Particularly robust is the relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime, which holds regardless of the socio-structural conditions of neighborhoods. Yet due to the limited availability of neighborhood panel data, the temporal relationship between neighborhood structure, collective efficacy and crime is less well understood.

Methods

In this paper, we provide an empirical test of the collective efficacy-crime association over time by bringing together multiple waves of survey and census data and counts of violent crime incident data collected across 148 neighborhoods in Brisbane, Australia. Utilizing three different longitudinal models that make different assumptions about the temporal nature of these relationships, we examine the reciprocal relationships between neighborhood features and collective efficacy with violent crime. We also consider the spatial embeddedness of these neighborhood characteristics and their association with collective efficacy and the concentration of violence longitudinally.

Results

Notably, our findings reveal no direct relationship between collective efficacy and violent crime over time. However, we find a strong reciprocal relationship between collective efficacy and disadvantage and between disadvantage and violence, indicating an indirect relationship between collective efficacy and violence.

Conclusions

The null direct effects for collective efficacy on crime in a longitudinal design suggest that this relationship may not be as straightforward as presumed in the literature. More longitudinal research is needed to understand the dynamics of disadvantage, collective efficacy, and violence in neighborhoods.

     

A Criminal Career Study of the Continuity and Discontinuity of Sex Offending during the Adolescence-Adulthood Transition: A Prospective Longitudinal Study of Incarcerated Youth

Longitudinal research has seriously challenged assumptions that juvenile sex offenders (JSO) are characterized by high level of dangerousness, mental health problems, and crime specialization in sex offenses. The current study examines the longitudinal pattern of offending among a sample of JSO and a sample of juvenile nonsex offenders. The research design includes longitudinal data over a nine-year period allowing the examination of offending patterns and the crime mix from age 12 to age 23. The findings highlight that, while JSO are prone to persist offending in adulthood, there is limited continuity of sex offending. Further, the findings stress the importance of taking into account nonsexual juvenile delinquency, more specifically, youth violence, to make a better assessment of early adult offending outcomes of JSO.     

DOING GENDER: SORTING OUT THE CASTE AND CRIME CONUNDRUM*

Theories that examine the relationship between inequality and crime typically privilege one system of stratification over others. In criminology, the system most often assumed to be primary is social class, but other approaches may emphasize gender or racial oppression to account for observed differences in offending patterns. Few, however, systematically link gender and race oppression as moderating etiological variables in the study of crime. From the theoretical and empirical literature on this subject, we discuss (1) how “hegemonic” masculinities and femininities are framed within social institutions such as work, the family, peer group, and schools; (2) how “doing gender” within these sites is modified by race; and (3) anticipated relationships among social structure, social action, and delinquency. Self-report data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth are used to test research hypotheses. Chow interaction tests and comparisons of slope coefficients reveal that gender and race modify independent-variable effects on property and violent delinquency.     

Incidents of discrimination and risk for delinquency: A longitudinal test of strain theory with an African American sample

This article examines the relationship between racial discrimination and delinquency. Using longitudinal data collected on approximately 700 African American children, we begin by establishing an association between exposure to discrimination and delinquent behavior. Next, we use structural equation modeling to test various hypotheses regarding the emotional and cognitive factors that mediate this association. For boys, the association between discrimination and delinquency is mediated by feelings of anger and depression and by the belief that aggression is a necessary interpersonal tactic. The results are somewhat different for girls. Although anger and depression mediate part of the effect of discrimination on delinquency, discrimination continues to display a small but significant direct effect. The implications of these findings for criminological theory are discussed.     

Self-reported offending,maturational reform,and the Easterlin hypothesis

The maturational reform hypothesis and the Easterlin cohort size hypothesis are used to specify models in which age, period, and cohort effects on self-reported crime and delinquency are estimated. Curvilinear effects, logarithmic transformations, and the distinction between prevalence and frequency of offending are considered. The maturational reform hypothesis is supported for general delinquency but not for serious (Index) delinquency, for which there appears to be a steady decline in the behavior with age. The Easterlin hypothesis is supported for both general and Index delinquency. Theoretical, methodological, and substantive implications of the results are discussed.     

EARLY LIFE RISKS,ANTISOCIAL TENDENCIES,AND PRETEEN DELINQUENCY

Early age‐of‐onset delinquency and substance use confer a major risk for continued criminality, alcohol and drug abuse, and other serious difficulties throughout the life course. Our objective is to examine the developmental roots of preteen delinquency and substance use. By using nationally representative longitudinal data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (N= 13,221), we examine the influence of early childhood developmental and family risks on latent pathways of antisocial tendencies from 3 to 7 years of age, and the influence of those pathways on property crime and substance use by 11 years of age. We identified a normative, nonantisocial pathway; a pathway marked by oppositional behavior and fighting; a pathway marked by impulsivity and inattention; and a rare pathway characterized by a wide range of antisocial tendencies. Children with developmental and family risks that emerged by 3 years of age—specifically difficult infant temperament, low cognitive ability, weak parental closeness, and disadvantaged family background—face increased odds of antisocial tendencies. Minimal overlap is found between the risk factors for early antisocial tendencies and those for preteen delinquency. Children on an antisocial pathway are more likely to engage in preteen delinquency and substance use by 11 years of age even after accounting for early life risk factors.     

SOCIAL CONTROL THEORY AND DELINQUENCY: A LONGITUDINAL TEST

Hirschi's (1969) control theory has received much empirical support and, as a consequence, has become one of the dominant theories of delinquency. Virtually all tests of the theory, however, have been conducted with cross-sectional data. This is a serious problem since there is good reason to believe that delinquency may have a causal impact on social control. This paper describes a longitudinal test of Hirschi's theory using panel data from a national sample of adolescent boys. Data indicate that the social control variables explain only 1%-2% of the variance in future delinquency, suggesting that cross-sectional studies have exaggerated the importance of Hirschi's theory. Possible reasons for the small longitudinal effect of the control variables are discussed.     

WHEN IT'S GOOD TO BE “BAD”: VIOLENCE AND ADOLESCENT PEER ACCEPTANCE*

This article examines the relationship between adolescent violence and peer acceptance in school. Deriving hypotheses from subcultural theories of crime and violence, it tests whether the violence–status relationship varies across sociodemographic characteristics and educational contexts of students. Analyses of school network data collected from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health suggest that violence generally holds a negative relationship to peer friendship nominations for both males and females. However, for males, this effect varies by the educational standing of the students. Violence shows a modest positive association to peer acceptance for males who perform poorly in school. No evidence exists that race moderates the violence –status relationship. These findings are replicated in longitudinal analyses of a large metropolitan high school. For females, violence has a significant negative relationship to peer status that does not vary by individual characteristics. However, school levels of violence moderate the relationship between social status and female violence such that violent females have greater numbers of friendships in highly violent schools. The implications of these findings for peer research and delinquency theory are discussed.     

Participation in and frequency of delinquent behavior: A test for structural differences

In this paper we address whether there are distinctive differences in the processes determining participation in offending vs frequency of offending. We develop a number of tests to examine not only whether the correlates of participation and frequency are similar but also whether the same underlying statistical model is consistent with the data on both these dimensions of a criminal career. The tests are applied using data from the first two waves of the National Youth Survey. While the findings are not without ambiguities, they do not support the idea that distinguishing among the dimensions of a criminal career is a fundamental requirement for conducting sound research on the causes of crime and delinquency.     

A Life-Course Perspective on Stress,Delinquency, and Young Adult Crime

This study uses General Strain Theory (GST) to describe and examine one potential pathway of delinquency/crime escalation and de-escalation across adolescence and young adulthood. In particular, the time-varying consequences for delinquent behavior and young adult crime of persistent or increasing levels of strain are addressed using data from the Family Health Study, an eight-year longitudinal data set (n = 840). The results indicate that there is a positive association between experiencing one type of strain—stressful life events—and involvement in delinquent or criminal behavior during this period of the life-course. However, the impact of stressful life events on these behaviors is diminished among young adults. Moreover, delinquent/criminal peer associations attenuate the age-specific effects of stressful life events, thus suggesting that peers play a central role in the association between strain and these behaviors. Implications of the results for theory and policy are discussed.     

The Etiology of Juvenile Delinquency: The United States and Switzerland Compared

Both Switzerland and the United States are highly affluent societies and rank consistently among the top five countries in the world in per capita income, both are Western democracies, both are highly urbanized, and both are highly industrialized. Thus, it is quite surprising to discover that Switzerland has much lower rates of crime and delinquency than is the case for the United States, a fact which is especially true for violent crimes. This paper attempts to explain the sources of the differences in crime rates between the two countries and gives special attention to a comparison of juvenile misconduct in the two countries.

In the first section, difficulties are discussed concerning the measurement of crime and delinquency in Switzerland, a country which collects few data on social problems in general. Some general trends are shown to be clear, however, including marked increases in drug abuse and suicide cases among the young in Switzerland. In the subsequent section, previous explanations of crime in Switzerland as compared to the United States are reviewed with special emphasis on Clinard's famous Cities with Little Crime: The Case of Switzerland (1978). The limitations of earlier interpretations are considered in detail. Finally, this paper ends by generating a set of theoretically and practically informed hypothesis for explaining the differences in crime rates between the two countries. It is hoped that these hypotheses will form the basis for more detailed research in the future.